A cool, crisp fog hung low over the dawn twilight. A stagnant air echoed a tense silence across the nation of states. Light slowly crept from the horizon, like an entombed body pulling itself from beneath the earth. In the distance a steady rustle in the fresh amber leaves approached.
Crinch-crunch, crinch-crunch.
My eyes strained to catch a glimpse of the figure through the fog; a silhouette, hunched and foreboding slowly materialized.
My stomach become knots and a shiver down my spine accompanied the erect neck hairs. Something was not right. My heart began to race as the rustling footsteps continued to approach.
Crinch-crunch, crinch-crunch.
Seconds became hours. Frozen with fear, I was helpless against the impending encounter. My hands began to shake as my body became overcome with adrenaline. This is the moment. Fight or flight. My pulse quickened, my breath steadied. The figure continued forward, locking onto me as his next target.
Crinch-crunch, crinch-crunch.
Suddenly from somewhere above the fog a raven shouted out in panic; his deep bellow shattering the crisp stillness. My senses were overwhelmed; my ears shuttered at the sound, my face cringed, my body contorted grossly and disfigured at what my eyes were seeing.
The silhouette stepped into view. His large dark hands reached out in my direction. He did not lose pace.
Crinch-crunch, crinch-crunch.
With a 'THUD' the figure dropped death at my feet, and disappeared from view, once more into the fog.
Crinch-crunch, crinch-crunch.
The fading of his footsteps returned me to my foggy prison. The air thick with the musk of what lay at my feet. Pulpy and damp, my nostrils stretched as the scent rose from below. My eyes, fearing the result, slowly moved down to reveal what I had feared; only worse.
I knelt and scooped the limp mass into my arms. Tears of frustration and fear filled my eyes. My body trembled. A weakness overcame me; I dropped to my knees. The thud next to my hunched and weeping body revealed the source of my terror.
I reached my hands to the sky and roared in agony, arching my back and sending the scream of horror through the still air. The hurried beat of wings beyond my sight, and the pause in the distant rustling steps of leaves indicated that I had received my gift this Autumn morning.
I collapsed, clutching my arms in a death grip across my chest. Panic coursed through my veins.
Laying next to me on the ground, the huddled mass of paper; whose headline read "Conservatives Sweep Congress. Republicans regain the Majority".
I am shattered, shaken, and broken. I have been brutalized and beaten. Trepidation is my life, now. The unknowing is my purgatory. I am alone.
I am...
Pelosi.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Meeting Dino Rossi & Historic House Turnover
There was an intimate gathering in Silverdale, WA today, where the next US Senator from WA State came to shake hands and kiss babies. It is always interesting to meet candidates face to face. You get a good feel for the type of person they are by their mannerisms and ticks. More importantly, I am always interested to see how tall candidates are. I’ve met some pols that were freakishly tall, and others (Like Al Gore in 1998) who was shockingly short (about 3 inches shorter than me, but he had giant bear-claw hands). Dino Rossi seemed to be about my height at 5’11”, and talked with his hands like a standard grandson of Italian immigrants (My wife is grand-daughter of Greek immigrants – so I GET IT!) In short, I told him to give ‘em hell in DC. He replied with a gracious and sincere ‘God Bless You for your efforts’. Was a great morning.
------------------------------------
Also, a quick look at the House races across the nation; Real Clear Politics is predicting an epic turnover in the House. This morning their polls indicate a 62 seat exchange on average – with a high/low of 78/46. Since 1840, only 16 congressional elections have resulted in political landslides for on party over the other (greater than 48) – mostly due to the increase in the number of states (and thus more seats in the House), Great Depressions, or Great Wars. Since a swing of 75 seats in 1948 in favor of the Democrats, they held the House until the Republican Revolution in 1994 (less two years of slight GOP control from 52-54), with a 54 seat swing. The history of the House is extremely interesting as a fluid body representing the issues of the day; a true indicator of the wisdom of the founding fathers in their creation of the Constitution. It saddens me that current political heads don't respect the founding documents and intent just a little more.------------------------------------
History of large turnovers in the House of Representatives:- 1842 saw a 49 seat gain by the Democrats (a net loss of 70 seats by the Whigs) after the Whig Party's POTUS died in office, sending a very unpopular man to fill his role. Unpopular leaders tend to inspire the opposition.
- 1854 bore a crushing blow to the Democrats with a 73 seat loss whilst the American party and Republicans picked up 62 and 46 seats respectively. Immigration, slavery, and talks of secession led to a minority party government representative of a tumultuous climate in the Antebellum States of America.
- In 1872 as the House grew by another 49 seats, the Republicans picked up 63 seats; continuing the post-war dominance of the federal government.
- In 1874, marking an end to the Reconstruction era, the Democrats picked up 94 seats while the Republicans lost 96, giving control of the House to the Democrats for the first time since the War of Northern Aggression.
- 1890 fell on hard economic times, and the ruling Republicans lost 93 seats, giving 86 of them to the Democrats, and control of the house once again.
- A depression in 1894 dealt a crushing blow to the ruling Democratic Party, giving up 125 seats. Republicans gained 130 seats, picking up some from minor parties.
- 1910 saw a 58 seat swing from Republicans to the Democrats, and loss of majority of the House. This was caused mainly due to deep factioning within the Republican Party.
- 1914, Republicans picked up 61 seats from the Democrats, though not enough to retake control of the House.
- 1920’s election turned over an additional 62 seats from the majority Democrats to the Republicans, who took an overwhelming majority in the wake of Wilson’s unpopular decision of World Governing.
- 1922 flopped 72 seats in favor of the Democrats, though not enough to give them a majority.
- 1930, the second year of the Great Depression, gave a 52 seat victory to the Democrats, leaving the Republican party with a slim 2 seat majority.
- In 1932, Republicans lost 101 seats, giving 97 of them to the Democrats and a few to third party candidates.
- 1938 Republicans took 81 seats from Democrats and other minor parties. The democrats still maintained a 60% majority of the House.
- 1942 Republicans picked up 47 seats from Dems, bringing the House back to a near even 50%-50% split.
- Following WWII, in 1946, Republicans picked up 55 seats and the Majority in the House for the first time since the Depression began.
- 1948 gave a 75 seat swing to the Democrats, the majority, and set the stage for 40 years of control of the house (less a short two years from 52-54 by the Republicans).
- The largest turnover in recent history was 54 seats in 1994, a result of the Republican Revolution.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
The Foreseeable Shortcomings of a Republican Majority
There is no doubt that the Republicans will sweep into Legislative Majorities in one or both houses after a short four year exile. It is not, however, a radical change in the GOP that has swung the electorate into 'the big tent'; it is a clear civil unrest over some very key faults of the Federal Government. Those elements are spending, budget, taxes, and jobs. The fact that the only platform put forth by the GOP establishment in 'The Pledge' is vague in solutions to these ends, and that the party is still decisively split on foreign issues, banking issues, etc. is clear evidence that the 2010 Republican Majority may find itself causing more harm than good.
In the simplest of statements, the GOP majority stands poised to squander any significant fundamental ability to change the legislation of the past ten to twenty years. This goes beyond Obama, extending through Bush and right on into Clinton. In fact, one could make an argument that fundamental reconstruction of the make-up of the US essentially starts with legislation that is a hundred years old.
What should the new, independent, Constitutionally backed GOP minority push the greater GOP establishment into tackling over the next two years? More importantly, what will the GOP establishment and the Liberals who survive the coming blood-letting work fervently to stop? Below is a list of the top SEVEN issues needed to repair the economy and structure of this nation:
7. Repair Social Security. When Social Security was adopted in the 1930's, it was intended to be a safety net. That safety net, for better or for worse, became a staple in the American Work Force, establishing secure retirement for elderly and providing a social welfare for the disabled. In the 1960's, Democrats tapped into the extra revenue of the SS program in order to balance their budget. This pillaging of the senior retirement fund fundamentally destroyed the system as a safety net, transferring the burden from a personal savings to a necessary tax item on the annual budget. Democrats looked to Social Security income as a source of revenue, depleting the savings account of America. We need an act of congress to completely restore the coffers and remove Social Security receipts as 'income' to the federal government. We also need to ensure that only those truly eligible receive funds, non-illegals, etc (and those who have paid into the system for a certain number of years). Payments should be a factor of contribution, etc, etc. This approach is constructive to the current dependency on the system, does not alienate the elderly or disabled who may be at a disadvantage, and is a good faith common-sense compromise that works across the aisle.
6. Fix Healthcare. Obamacare and other forms of socialized medicine are destructive to industry - both in the medical field and across the board. Obamacare was so invasive that it made it a federal crime to NOT purchase insurance from a private company. This and other aspects of the law are grossly unconstitutional and will not survive the courts. There are, however, positive glimpses within the document that were horribly implemented - for instance, denied coverage due to past illness, and coverage for children. Congress can pass legislation under equal protection and non discrimination forcing insurers to allow equal and affordable coverage for all. There are many ways of restructuring the system within the current set of rules (pre-Obamacare); However, what if we cast aside the set of current rules and changed the playing field? If we combine tort reform, state government ownership (on a state by state basis as voted on by the people of each state in accordance with the 10th amendment), and a true level playing field for insurance (interstate plans, restriction of price fixing, etc.) the free market competition would drive insurance prices down. A top down Federal health system is unconstitutional, and should be left to the states, thus the current system needs to be absolutely repealed and reframed.
5. Pay down the National Debt. Throw a wrench in the cogs of ALL the National debt calculator widgets by reversing the trend. Pay down the national debt. This should be made a priority as a good faith gesture to America that the government tyrants are going away. A well planned budget could effectively pay off the entire national debt in two presidential terms. That is right. I personally claim to have a plan to pay down $14 Trillion in 8 years. The following three items lay out the general ingredients to how this is possible.
4. Fix the Tax Structure. The tax codes change from year to year, written in such a way that only those with access to high cost lawyers can curtail true tax rates, and end up paying less than their fair share; in most cases those tax evaders are the tax code writers - your Congressmen and Senators. A flat tax is not absolutely necessary, but it provides an excellent model for restructuring the US tax code into a simple handbook. Combine the Flat Tax and the Progressive Tax (under which we currently operate), and eliminate deductions for incomes over a set dollar amount. Restructure the tax rates to reflect typical current payments based on deductions for lower and middle earners, and then simplify by eliminating the deductions for all. Eliminate EIC, as it is simply a pay-out of wealth redistribution. remove everything from the US tax code other than a simple chart indicating income and expected taxes. Business and corporate taxes would embody a similar system with an adjusted flat rate with no deductions. The system would be uniform and constitutional. The revenue to the US government would reflect a net increase without any significant modification to current tax burdens. I could easily calculate a $0.5 Trillion annual revenue increase by eliminating loopholes for the rich senators and their friends. Other adjustments may need to be made to balance a debt pay-down plan.
3. Cut Government Spending. Current government budgets are usually never reduced, and often simply push forward funding for programs plus a percentage budget increase each year. Anyone currently addressing "significant budget cuts" simply mean that the percent increase was reduced - but facts show that the net program spending increases! Some system! Do a full scrub of the entire budget. Make some deep and necessary cuts - to the tune of at LEAST $1.5Trillion (or half of the 2010 budget). I have run these calculations and major defense cuts associated with eliminating unnecessary multi-billion dollar federal departments and cutting unnecessary portions of the remaining department funds, while placing certain obligations back into the hands of the states or citizens (like education), cutting $1.5Trillion comes easy without even broaching the Medicare/Medicaid coffers. Eliminating them in favor of a Social Security Medical system and other healthcare changes reducing the cost and increasing the availability of private healthcare easily makes immense gains toward elimination of debt.
2. Take Control of Monetary Policy. A repeal of the Federal Reserve Act, or a restructure of the way the Treasury handles the monetary system would immediately eliminate a grand portion of our debt, would eliminate the need to pay interest on our own monetary system to a private conglomerate of banks who have no connection to the Federal Government, and would fundamentally change the way we do business in the US with regards to spending and borrowing. It is a drastic move and a massive show of force against the banks who continually suck the government and the citizens dry for profit. Eliminating the debt by a swoop of a pen would by far be the most dramatic law in the history of the world. Other less drastic steps could be taken, like renegotiation of all interest on debts to 0.0% (since it is OUR money). Such a step would immediately save $164 Billion annually, and could be used to negotiate down total debt to the Federal Reserve. International debt would be handled separately.
1. Repeal the Patriot Act. Next to financials, the Patriot Act was the single most restrictive piece of legislation to American Liberties. The frustration in 2006 & 2008 against Bush was due to such invasive laws (as well as the wars). A restructure of the intelligence agencies does not necessitate a collapse of civil liberties. This law is an abomination and should be struck in its entirety.
These are some of the most extreme examples, but necessary to turn our country away from social tyranny toward a peaceful economic powerhouse. If the new GOP pushed for even a tiny part of these changes, they would establish themselves as sound leadership for generations. If these are the principles we truly embrace (smaller government, lower taxes, more freedom), then the above changes are not radical or extreme; they are necessary elements in the fundamental restructuring as part of a more perfect union. One in which ideas like "the new deal" can provide security for citizens while the focus and structure of the government can return to a less powerful advisory board focused on defense and equal protection under the law. There is a perfect equilibrium, but we are far removed from it. hard work and sacrifice on the part of the Federal government is key to reach the higher middle ground. The new GOP needs to lead us there.
In the simplest of statements, the GOP majority stands poised to squander any significant fundamental ability to change the legislation of the past ten to twenty years. This goes beyond Obama, extending through Bush and right on into Clinton. In fact, one could make an argument that fundamental reconstruction of the make-up of the US essentially starts with legislation that is a hundred years old.
What should the new, independent, Constitutionally backed GOP minority push the greater GOP establishment into tackling over the next two years? More importantly, what will the GOP establishment and the Liberals who survive the coming blood-letting work fervently to stop? Below is a list of the top SEVEN issues needed to repair the economy and structure of this nation:
7. Repair Social Security. When Social Security was adopted in the 1930's, it was intended to be a safety net. That safety net, for better or for worse, became a staple in the American Work Force, establishing secure retirement for elderly and providing a social welfare for the disabled. In the 1960's, Democrats tapped into the extra revenue of the SS program in order to balance their budget. This pillaging of the senior retirement fund fundamentally destroyed the system as a safety net, transferring the burden from a personal savings to a necessary tax item on the annual budget. Democrats looked to Social Security income as a source of revenue, depleting the savings account of America. We need an act of congress to completely restore the coffers and remove Social Security receipts as 'income' to the federal government. We also need to ensure that only those truly eligible receive funds, non-illegals, etc (and those who have paid into the system for a certain number of years). Payments should be a factor of contribution, etc, etc. This approach is constructive to the current dependency on the system, does not alienate the elderly or disabled who may be at a disadvantage, and is a good faith common-sense compromise that works across the aisle.
6. Fix Healthcare. Obamacare and other forms of socialized medicine are destructive to industry - both in the medical field and across the board. Obamacare was so invasive that it made it a federal crime to NOT purchase insurance from a private company. This and other aspects of the law are grossly unconstitutional and will not survive the courts. There are, however, positive glimpses within the document that were horribly implemented - for instance, denied coverage due to past illness, and coverage for children. Congress can pass legislation under equal protection and non discrimination forcing insurers to allow equal and affordable coverage for all. There are many ways of restructuring the system within the current set of rules (pre-Obamacare); However, what if we cast aside the set of current rules and changed the playing field? If we combine tort reform, state government ownership (on a state by state basis as voted on by the people of each state in accordance with the 10th amendment), and a true level playing field for insurance (interstate plans, restriction of price fixing, etc.) the free market competition would drive insurance prices down. A top down Federal health system is unconstitutional, and should be left to the states, thus the current system needs to be absolutely repealed and reframed.
5. Pay down the National Debt. Throw a wrench in the cogs of ALL the National debt calculator widgets by reversing the trend. Pay down the national debt. This should be made a priority as a good faith gesture to America that the government tyrants are going away. A well planned budget could effectively pay off the entire national debt in two presidential terms. That is right. I personally claim to have a plan to pay down $14 Trillion in 8 years. The following three items lay out the general ingredients to how this is possible.
4. Fix the Tax Structure. The tax codes change from year to year, written in such a way that only those with access to high cost lawyers can curtail true tax rates, and end up paying less than their fair share; in most cases those tax evaders are the tax code writers - your Congressmen and Senators. A flat tax is not absolutely necessary, but it provides an excellent model for restructuring the US tax code into a simple handbook. Combine the Flat Tax and the Progressive Tax (under which we currently operate), and eliminate deductions for incomes over a set dollar amount. Restructure the tax rates to reflect typical current payments based on deductions for lower and middle earners, and then simplify by eliminating the deductions for all. Eliminate EIC, as it is simply a pay-out of wealth redistribution. remove everything from the US tax code other than a simple chart indicating income and expected taxes. Business and corporate taxes would embody a similar system with an adjusted flat rate with no deductions. The system would be uniform and constitutional. The revenue to the US government would reflect a net increase without any significant modification to current tax burdens. I could easily calculate a $0.5 Trillion annual revenue increase by eliminating loopholes for the rich senators and their friends. Other adjustments may need to be made to balance a debt pay-down plan.
3. Cut Government Spending. Current government budgets are usually never reduced, and often simply push forward funding for programs plus a percentage budget increase each year. Anyone currently addressing "significant budget cuts" simply mean that the percent increase was reduced - but facts show that the net program spending increases! Some system! Do a full scrub of the entire budget. Make some deep and necessary cuts - to the tune of at LEAST $1.5Trillion (or half of the 2010 budget). I have run these calculations and major defense cuts associated with eliminating unnecessary multi-billion dollar federal departments and cutting unnecessary portions of the remaining department funds, while placing certain obligations back into the hands of the states or citizens (like education), cutting $1.5Trillion comes easy without even broaching the Medicare/Medicaid coffers. Eliminating them in favor of a Social Security Medical system and other healthcare changes reducing the cost and increasing the availability of private healthcare easily makes immense gains toward elimination of debt.
2. Take Control of Monetary Policy. A repeal of the Federal Reserve Act, or a restructure of the way the Treasury handles the monetary system would immediately eliminate a grand portion of our debt, would eliminate the need to pay interest on our own monetary system to a private conglomerate of banks who have no connection to the Federal Government, and would fundamentally change the way we do business in the US with regards to spending and borrowing. It is a drastic move and a massive show of force against the banks who continually suck the government and the citizens dry for profit. Eliminating the debt by a swoop of a pen would by far be the most dramatic law in the history of the world. Other less drastic steps could be taken, like renegotiation of all interest on debts to 0.0% (since it is OUR money). Such a step would immediately save $164 Billion annually, and could be used to negotiate down total debt to the Federal Reserve. International debt would be handled separately.
1. Repeal the Patriot Act. Next to financials, the Patriot Act was the single most restrictive piece of legislation to American Liberties. The frustration in 2006 & 2008 against Bush was due to such invasive laws (as well as the wars). A restructure of the intelligence agencies does not necessitate a collapse of civil liberties. This law is an abomination and should be struck in its entirety.
These are some of the most extreme examples, but necessary to turn our country away from social tyranny toward a peaceful economic powerhouse. If the new GOP pushed for even a tiny part of these changes, they would establish themselves as sound leadership for generations. If these are the principles we truly embrace (smaller government, lower taxes, more freedom), then the above changes are not radical or extreme; they are necessary elements in the fundamental restructuring as part of a more perfect union. One in which ideas like "the new deal" can provide security for citizens while the focus and structure of the government can return to a less powerful advisory board focused on defense and equal protection under the law. There is a perfect equilibrium, but we are far removed from it. hard work and sacrifice on the part of the Federal government is key to reach the higher middle ground. The new GOP needs to lead us there.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Looking Beyond the 2010 Election
We are officially less than two weeks away from election day. By this time in two weeks we will see the largest swing in the US House of Representatives give the conservative bloc of the GOP a large number of seats. We will see headlines of an undeclared Senate, with races in Washington, California, Nevada, and Illinois locked up in recounts or legal battles. The GOP will sweep into state capitols all across the union. We will see an isolated executive who continues to claim that even though the GOP won, HE is still king and the GOP will need to work with him.
But what will this all mean?
There are already reports that the incoming GOP senators are being urged NOT to support a repeal of Obamacare BY THE OUTGOING GOP SENATORS.
For starters, states are continuing to resist DC. 14 states are crafting legislation to deny anchor babies citizenship if born in their states - a direct affront to the "world citizen" president. 28 states are continuing legal challenges to the unconstitutional Obamacare law in federal courts. So long as the people fight their local governments for increased pressure against DC, we have a change for reform at the state levels.
The GOP gains in the state houses will be most important this year, as a redistricting year. Districts can be redrawn to ensure conservative margins in their congressional districts and state houses.
Colorado may be faced with the GOP as a MINOR party if Dan Maes cannot muster 10% of the vote, elevating the Constitution Party and the Democrat Party as the two major parties for the next four years in the state. If, however, Dan Maes does muster his 10% for Republicans, he is guaranteeing the governorship to the Democrats and ensuring a liberal redistricting in the battleground state.
This is all politics. Party changes, redistricting... what is going to change?
Time will tell. If the Tea Party can gain momentum heading into 2012, force the GOP back to the Reagan Right, and effect fundamental policy changes against the Federal Reserve and liberal regulation of industry, we may have a fighting chance. The outcome of the 2010 election needs to NOT be about party politics. It needs to be about TEA Party politics - where libertarian ideals are mainstream and we put forward an agenda that is the best of what liberty minded Pols from both sides of the aisle have to offer.
THIS is the chance to heal the divide in this nation, under conservative LIBERTARIAN leadership. Repeal the Patriot Act from the GOP side of the aisle. Audit the Federal Reserve from the GOP side of the aisle. End the war on drugs, eliminate tax loopholes and implement either a flat tax or a zero deduction progressive flat tax - simplifying the tax code to a single page and effectively eliminating the IRS.
What about blowback?
If 2010 was a referendum on Obama, 2012 is going to be a referendum on the Tea Party victories of 2010. Unfortunately, should we win the Senate AND House in two weeks, any good that comes of it is most likely going to be claimed by Obama, and much like Clinton claiming a second term, Obama could find himself as the beneficiary of the 2010 elections. If the GOP, however, follows the advice of outgoing senators and continues the status quo, the GOP will cease to exist as a viable party.
We need to set clear goals, publicly check off our goals as we succeed, and ensure that the credit lies with the movement and NOT with the president or the parties. We need to push for a Democratic challenger to Obama and serve up some very impressive alternatives to Obama (NOT Bob Dole!!!!!)
But what will this all mean?
There are already reports that the incoming GOP senators are being urged NOT to support a repeal of Obamacare BY THE OUTGOING GOP SENATORS.
Sen. Judd Gregg (N.H.), the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, said that repealing the new healthcare reform law — or looking to defund it — were not good options.Meet the new boss same as the old. So what is going to change?
“I don’t think starving or repealing is probably the best approach here,” Gregg said on the Fox Business Network. “You basically go in and restructure it.”
For starters, states are continuing to resist DC. 14 states are crafting legislation to deny anchor babies citizenship if born in their states - a direct affront to the "world citizen" president. 28 states are continuing legal challenges to the unconstitutional Obamacare law in federal courts. So long as the people fight their local governments for increased pressure against DC, we have a change for reform at the state levels.
The GOP gains in the state houses will be most important this year, as a redistricting year. Districts can be redrawn to ensure conservative margins in their congressional districts and state houses.
Colorado may be faced with the GOP as a MINOR party if Dan Maes cannot muster 10% of the vote, elevating the Constitution Party and the Democrat Party as the two major parties for the next four years in the state. If, however, Dan Maes does muster his 10% for Republicans, he is guaranteeing the governorship to the Democrats and ensuring a liberal redistricting in the battleground state.
This is all politics. Party changes, redistricting... what is going to change?
Time will tell. If the Tea Party can gain momentum heading into 2012, force the GOP back to the Reagan Right, and effect fundamental policy changes against the Federal Reserve and liberal regulation of industry, we may have a fighting chance. The outcome of the 2010 election needs to NOT be about party politics. It needs to be about TEA Party politics - where libertarian ideals are mainstream and we put forward an agenda that is the best of what liberty minded Pols from both sides of the aisle have to offer.
THIS is the chance to heal the divide in this nation, under conservative LIBERTARIAN leadership. Repeal the Patriot Act from the GOP side of the aisle. Audit the Federal Reserve from the GOP side of the aisle. End the war on drugs, eliminate tax loopholes and implement either a flat tax or a zero deduction progressive flat tax - simplifying the tax code to a single page and effectively eliminating the IRS.
What about blowback?
If 2010 was a referendum on Obama, 2012 is going to be a referendum on the Tea Party victories of 2010. Unfortunately, should we win the Senate AND House in two weeks, any good that comes of it is most likely going to be claimed by Obama, and much like Clinton claiming a second term, Obama could find himself as the beneficiary of the 2010 elections. If the GOP, however, follows the advice of outgoing senators and continues the status quo, the GOP will cease to exist as a viable party.
We need to set clear goals, publicly check off our goals as we succeed, and ensure that the credit lies with the movement and NOT with the president or the parties. We need to push for a Democratic challenger to Obama and serve up some very impressive alternatives to Obama (NOT Bob Dole!!!!!)
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
UPDATE - WA Senate Race
In an update to yesterday's post, Dino Rossi has taken a 1.7 point average lead on the Real Clear Politics average, and they are now awarding Washington State to Dino Rossi in the "No Toss Up" map. Unfortunately for Republicans the map remains a 50/50 tie, as IL seems to be breaking in favor of the Democrat by the slightest of margins. That race is tight, and I am not going to attempt to predict Obama's old senate seat.
For the mean time, I will simply bask in the glow of watching the western states oust incumbents!
UPDATE***
If you want to know why Patty Murray is losing, here is her latest attack ad:
I honestly don't know what to say... other than "Vote for me because I know what it is like to have a vagina, too!" Seriously. This is what it looks like to watch an incumbent drown in their own pool of lies and deceit!
For the mean time, I will simply bask in the glow of watching the western states oust incumbents!
UPDATE***
If you want to know why Patty Murray is losing, here is her latest attack ad:
I honestly don't know what to say... other than "Vote for me because I know what it is like to have a vagina, too!" Seriously. This is what it looks like to watch an incumbent drown in their own pool of lies and deceit!
Monday, October 11, 2010
Analyzing the WA State US Senate Race
I have already predicted a close race in Washington, but one where Dino Rossi ultimately unseats the most liberal Western Senator and three term incumbent. This post is a further analysis of my prediction. Before I break down the race, the polls, and the candidate performance, there are a few peculiar laws in this state that require special attention (much like Nevada's 'none of the above' law). In Washington state we operate under a 'Top Two' system for the general election. This means that the top two vote getters, regardless of party affiliation (which is not required to be disclosed by a candidate), are the only two names shown on the ballot for the general election. Furthermore, write in candidates will not be counted unless they met the registration deadline (set as the same deadline for other candidates) and unless the number of non-registered write in votes is significant enough to effect the outcome of the race. That being said, in Washington State, 100% of the votes will be split between the two names on the ballot. All those undecided or "other" numbers in the polls will either not show up, or follow the trends indicated by the polls for 'Independent' voters. That being said, now let us look at the four phases of this race, and why I think Rossi is going to win.
Patty Murray, the popular state legislator who ran as the "Mom in Tennis Shoes" 18 years ago won after a considerable battle proved her to be a heavy weight. She also had the anti Bush 41 movement and the help of a young southerner running for President who won the affection of women across the country - William Jefferson Clinton. Over the years, Murray has proven to be one of the most liberal senators in the nation, and has increasingly become reclusive and out of touch with the voters in Washington State. Murray has won election to her seat three times before, but mostly to individuals with little to no name recognition, and those who have never been involved in a statewide election.
Dino Rossi, a two time runner up for Governor, has wide statewide support and, even as a moderate Republican, is carrying the support of most die-hard conservative Tea Partiers. Dino's name in this race was only suspect, as a group of unknown candidates were scrambling to find their niche in facing Murray. This analysis begins in the early phase of the candidacy, prior to Rossi officially entering the race. Se the chart below:
Patty Murray, the popular state legislator who ran as the "Mom in Tennis Shoes" 18 years ago won after a considerable battle proved her to be a heavy weight. She also had the anti Bush 41 movement and the help of a young southerner running for President who won the affection of women across the country - William Jefferson Clinton. Over the years, Murray has proven to be one of the most liberal senators in the nation, and has increasingly become reclusive and out of touch with the voters in Washington State. Murray has won election to her seat three times before, but mostly to individuals with little to no name recognition, and those who have never been involved in a statewide election.
Dino Rossi, a two time runner up for Governor, has wide statewide support and, even as a moderate Republican, is carrying the support of most die-hard conservative Tea Partiers. Dino's name in this race was only suspect, as a group of unknown candidates were scrambling to find their niche in facing Murray. This analysis begins in the early phase of the candidacy, prior to Rossi officially entering the race. Se the chart below:
Early polling placed Rossi within the margin of error of Murray. Anticipation of his entering the race gathered support from Independents who had grown tired of Murray and the D.C. shenanigans. Rossi pulled ahead of Murray in early polling, to the upper limits of the margin of error, placing him as a solid contender to Murray. Rossi announced his candidacy and immediately fell under the sword of Tea Party candidates tearing at a moderate in a wave of conservative movements. Murray's numbers rose as a result of an effective attack on Rossi by Tea Party challenger, Clint Didier. As the somewhat extreme (and sometimes rambling) Didier began to gain momentum, Murray's numbers returned to her near victory margin of 50%.
The state voted in the Primary Election. The top two candidates were Murray and Rossi. This immediately propelled Rossi's numbers in the polls while Murray suffered the fate of being faced off with a serious and viable contender - a Republican who could win in Washington State. Murray's campaign was in a virtual nose dive, even flying Barack Obama out to the state to endorse her, which sunk her numbers even more.
Murray then turned to serious campaign mode, opening her massive lobbyist funded war chest and unleashing a series of attack ads against Rossi. Rossi remained silent, fundraising and hitting the grassroots. As he waited in the wings for his coffers to fill, it looked as if Murray was going to run away with this thing. The people in Washington state began to wonder if Rossi was going to fizzle out under the enormous pocket-book of a Murray campaign.
Alas, Rossi appeared on the air. Rossi challenged debates. Rossi was in the news, on the TV, on the airwaves. To make matters worse, a usually Murray friendly Seattle Times took a neutral stance in this election and began running actual news about the validity of political advertising. With every new ad, the Times would run an assessment of the ad. Murray was found guilty by the media of slinging mud and half truths. Rossi was shown to be more truthful and delivered a more uplifting message. This tactic spoke well with the Independent voters.
The poll numbers show response to the events of the campaigns so far, but the October surprise has been that some polls have been heavily favoring Democrat voters over Republicans. Even with the disparity, Independent voters are swinging toward the Republican challenger, upwards of ten percent in many polls. In Washington State it is the Independent voters that can break the stranglehold of Liberalism held by densely populated King County's Seattle Metro area.
On average, both candidates are at a dead tie 47 percent (Murray 47.455%, Rossi 47.364%). For statistical purposes, throwing out the highest and lowest poll numbers for each, Rossi takes the advantage 47.4 to 47.3. As I said, a dead tie. This race is about getting out the vote. So let's look at what is on the ballot that is going to get folks to return their statewide mail-in ballot.
*note: poll numbers are all from Rassmusen.
The Rossi/Murray race is the top of the ticket. It gets a fair amount of press, and obviously the Republicans have the GOTV momentum, drawing support from Independent voters. what is drawing more attention is a series of tax increases that are being challenged on the ballot. In WA State the legislature is proposing food taxes, state income taxes, constitutional amendments to extend the state debt allowance, etc. It is a fiscal disaster on the ballots this year, and it is drawing massive attention to the economic woes, and the party of incumbents. There are no pressing social issues on the ballot, so alternative lifestyle voters have no rally poll. There are no major issues other than economic battles - higher taxes or starve the uneducated school children. This is the nail in the coffin for Murray. She has to carry the ticket, and carry the platform in a state where she has proven to be less than popular after two decades in office.
Key factors to a Rossi Victory:
1. King County Liberal Turnout - King County swings upwards of 85% Democrat. It is a solid assurance for the Dems, and also is the most populous area in the state. State elections are won and lost in King County, because of King County.
2. Independent voters - IV are now swinging 10% points in favor of Rossi. Statewide that is effective, but a large swing in the urban areas is turning this thing into a Rossi victory. If he stays on message, Murray cannot counter.
3. Murray blew her advertising load too early - Rossi is well known. We all know his dirty laundry. Her early attack ads swung polls in her favor, but it was nothing more than a reminder of that which we all already knew. It gave her a temporary bump, and there is nothing left - no foreseeable 'October Surprise'. Rossi has been well vetted since 2004 in this state. Two runs for Governor has a way of cleaning out your political closet!
This race may not be key for conservatives, but this race IS key for the GOP to take a majority in the US Senate. The WA and NV senate races are going to be the most hard fought races in the history of this union...two races in which neither party can afford to lose.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Update on GOP Senate Fight - Nevada
In my earlier column, Republicans Will Take Senate?, I laid out the logistics behind a senate upset by the GOP, namely in two western states: Washington and Nevada. As of the latest CNN/Time poll, Real Clear Politics shows a tie in the state on average and has moved it into the Republican Victory column in their "No Toss Up" calculations. This means that Real Clear Politics, as of October 6th, does not project Harry Reid as being able to win re-election in Nevada.
Harry Reid is plagued with problems. In the Senate, in Nevada, even in his own home. The man's falling numbers are a direct sign of those troubles. Sharon Angle, Tea Party candidate (and one of the first big wins nationwide in the primaries), is currently tied with Reid at 43.5%, but she has all the momentum heading into October, and she is gaining traction in the polls where Reid is losing everything.
In line with my earlier predictions, I believe Nevada is accurately placed into the (R) column, and will be party to the movement aimed at correcting the focus and reach of our government.
Go Sharon Go!
Harry Reid is plagued with problems. In the Senate, in Nevada, even in his own home. The man's falling numbers are a direct sign of those troubles. Sharon Angle, Tea Party candidate (and one of the first big wins nationwide in the primaries), is currently tied with Reid at 43.5%, but she has all the momentum heading into October, and she is gaining traction in the polls where Reid is losing everything.
In line with my earlier predictions, I believe Nevada is accurately placed into the (R) column, and will be party to the movement aimed at correcting the focus and reach of our government.
Go Sharon Go!
Obama's Plan to Try Terror Suspects in Civil Courts Backfiring
Imagine the response if the hundreds of thousands of prisoners of war during WWII were shipped to the United States for trial in civilian courts. I suppose we live in a different time, and fight different battles. It appears that the latest battle by Obama, to try terror suspects in civilian courts, is one that we are determined to lose.
The court ruled today that the Government's star witness cannot testify, because his testimony to the CIA was given only after severe coercion while in custody. The government asked for a delay in the trial to reorganize its case.
What is most predictable in this case is that there is a possibility that the defendant can be found not guilty due to lack of constitutionally acquired evidence and released to walk out the front doors of the court house. This question was posed to Obama, about if he was ready and willing to accept such a ruling and allow known enemies of the state out of US custody and out into the streets? His response is that none of them would win their case - a statement I likened to a kangaroo court (knowing the outcome before the trial).
In any case, it seems that the government is in a tight spot, and we may be a week away from a mistrial, where the headlines will undoubtedly read "Obama's Miscalculation Frees Known Terrorist". That is right. I am sure that no blame will be placed on the divine one!
The court ruled today that the Government's star witness cannot testify, because his testimony to the CIA was given only after severe coercion while in custody. The government asked for a delay in the trial to reorganize its case.
What is most predictable in this case is that there is a possibility that the defendant can be found not guilty due to lack of constitutionally acquired evidence and released to walk out the front doors of the court house. This question was posed to Obama, about if he was ready and willing to accept such a ruling and allow known enemies of the state out of US custody and out into the streets? His response is that none of them would win their case - a statement I likened to a kangaroo court (knowing the outcome before the trial).
In any case, it seems that the government is in a tight spot, and we may be a week away from a mistrial, where the headlines will undoubtedly read "Obama's Miscalculation Frees Known Terrorist". That is right. I am sure that no blame will be placed on the divine one!
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
A Moment of Reflection
A young voter might ask "How has politics changed in the last thirty years?" A valid question in the era of political sleaze, right wing extremism, left wing radicals, cult of personality presidential elections, and a tyrannical federal government. The answer can be found in this moment of reflection:
There is nothing extreme about demanding that the government live within the bounds of the contractual obligations established in the Constitution. The current grassroots movement is not a radical element of this nation. We are a constitutional element. We are THE PEOPLE, and we are here to fix this mess.
May God bless the people with liberty from our own government!
There is nothing extreme about demanding that the government live within the bounds of the contractual obligations established in the Constitution. The current grassroots movement is not a radical element of this nation. We are a constitutional element. We are THE PEOPLE, and we are here to fix this mess.
May God bless the people with liberty from our own government!
Monday, October 4, 2010
Republicans Will Take The Senate?
Officially one month to go until the midterm elections, the referendum on an inexperienced President led by a radical Congress responsible for this nation's hardships. Both parties are anxiously watching close races around the multitude of states, with bated breath as to the outcome. Look no further - I will reveal my prediction of the outcome.
Real Clear Politics predicts a Democratic Senate, with 51 seats to 49 over Republicans (and Tea Party). The Democrats pick up no seats, but are predicted to hold three states in the northeast and all the western states (including HI). However, watching the polling and the numbers behind the trends, as well as the "stagnation" line of certain incumbents, I predict that at least two western states will oust their incumbent senators: Washington and Nevada.
In Nevada, Harry Reid trailed Sharon Angle considerably until her actual nomination, at which point both candidates surged in the polls, Reid taking the advantage by a slim margin. However there are a few behind the scene tea leaves (Pun Intended) to indicate a Tea Party victory over the incumbent Senate Majority Leader. First, Reid's own son is running for Governor of the state, yet he refuses to campaign using his last name. You cannot make this stuff up! His father is so unpopular that the young Rory Reid is campaigning on a "Vote Rory" message and still trailing by double digits to his Republican Challenger. One could expect the Reid-Rage to stick on election day as voters select neither of the Reids. Secondly, Harry Reid's numbers have yet to break 47 in polling. Any incumbent polling below 50% cannot be sleeping soundly through the night. In fact, Reid's sudden spike in the polls has dropped after the uncertainty surrounding an unknown Tea Party candidate has dissipated, and all current polls show both candidates within the margin of error with one another. Finally, Nevada has a state law allowing voters to cast their vote for "none of the above". This is to Reid's disadvantage, though he originally intended to use it to his advantage. Reid had hoped that Moderates and Republicans unwilling to back a Tea Party candidate would vote "None"... however, with so many undecideds this close to the race, it appears that Reid voters will vote "None" over Reid before GOP voters turn their back on the Tea Party Angle. I predict Angle (R) winning the seat with 49% of the vote, Reid getting 47%, and 4% going to the other 6 candidates or "None".
In Washington State we have hardcore liberal incumbent Patty Murray (D) pushing ahead of Moderate Republican Dino Rossi in recent polls. Murray refuses to debate Rossi who is forcing her to answer to her vote history, and has spent millions on personal character attacks on the former WA State legislator - a common theme when a candidate needs to push the polls. However, Murray's war chest may not be working to her advantage as well as polls would indicate. Murray's recent surge in the polls has fooled Real Clear Politics, but analysis of how the polls were conducted sheds light onto the disparities. Independents are breaking heavily for Rossi, at a rate of more than 55% to 45% Murray, on average. Most polls release their voter breakdown, and the recent "Pro-Murray" polls would not. However, it would appear that Democrats are being over-sampled in the recent polls... with Rassmussen being the exception. Rasmussen has consistently shown this race to be neck in neck, with Murray hard pressed to reach the crucial 50% mark, which is saving grace in WA State. In this state there is a restriction on candidates who can make the ballot. It is a 'top-two' law, allowing only the top two vote recipients from the primary to grace the November general election ballot for all races. There are no "none" votes, no third party votes. It will be a direct 100% count between two candidates. I predict that the advantage will go to the challenger by November, and we will see a 50.5% Rossi (R) count to a 49.5% Murray (D) count. In WA state there is a history of close races (closest race in US history was Gregoire over Rossi for Governor in 2004 by 214 votes after the third recount (Rossi was ahead for the first two counts)).
By my prediction, the Republicans will have 51 seats to the Democrat 49 seats in the senate.
*A commentary about the races in the other states:
1. In Florida, Rubio has taken a commanding lead. Unless Democratic underdog Meeks drops the race, Independent challenger and current governor Charlie Crist cannot make up the double digit margin. The Democrats have the seat with a Crist win, and I wonder why they do not ask Meeks to step aside in favor of a huge pick-up in Florida. Stay Tuned.
2. In California, Boxer is still vulnerable, but Fiorina (R) has simply plummeted in the polls. Recent attacks against Meg Whitman (R), who is running for governor, may be hurting the down ticket candidate.
3. Chris Dodd's seat in Connecticut has become a nail biter. The Democratic Blumenthal cannot break 50% in a heavily democratic state, and WWE Mogul McMahonhas considerably closed the gap. I still call this one for the Dems, but McMahon has made this into a race in Democrat safe territory.
**NOTE: this opinion may change and is only the subject of current trends in polling. Any change is due to the sudden political hail mary or major fumble by any candidate in any party.
Real Clear Politics predicts a Democratic Senate, with 51 seats to 49 over Republicans (and Tea Party). The Democrats pick up no seats, but are predicted to hold three states in the northeast and all the western states (including HI). However, watching the polling and the numbers behind the trends, as well as the "stagnation" line of certain incumbents, I predict that at least two western states will oust their incumbent senators: Washington and Nevada.
In Nevada, Harry Reid trailed Sharon Angle considerably until her actual nomination, at which point both candidates surged in the polls, Reid taking the advantage by a slim margin. However there are a few behind the scene tea leaves (Pun Intended) to indicate a Tea Party victory over the incumbent Senate Majority Leader. First, Reid's own son is running for Governor of the state, yet he refuses to campaign using his last name. You cannot make this stuff up! His father is so unpopular that the young Rory Reid is campaigning on a "Vote Rory" message and still trailing by double digits to his Republican Challenger. One could expect the Reid-Rage to stick on election day as voters select neither of the Reids. Secondly, Harry Reid's numbers have yet to break 47 in polling. Any incumbent polling below 50% cannot be sleeping soundly through the night. In fact, Reid's sudden spike in the polls has dropped after the uncertainty surrounding an unknown Tea Party candidate has dissipated, and all current polls show both candidates within the margin of error with one another. Finally, Nevada has a state law allowing voters to cast their vote for "none of the above". This is to Reid's disadvantage, though he originally intended to use it to his advantage. Reid had hoped that Moderates and Republicans unwilling to back a Tea Party candidate would vote "None"... however, with so many undecideds this close to the race, it appears that Reid voters will vote "None" over Reid before GOP voters turn their back on the Tea Party Angle. I predict Angle (R) winning the seat with 49% of the vote, Reid getting 47%, and 4% going to the other 6 candidates or "None".
In Washington State we have hardcore liberal incumbent Patty Murray (D) pushing ahead of Moderate Republican Dino Rossi in recent polls. Murray refuses to debate Rossi who is forcing her to answer to her vote history, and has spent millions on personal character attacks on the former WA State legislator - a common theme when a candidate needs to push the polls. However, Murray's war chest may not be working to her advantage as well as polls would indicate. Murray's recent surge in the polls has fooled Real Clear Politics, but analysis of how the polls were conducted sheds light onto the disparities. Independents are breaking heavily for Rossi, at a rate of more than 55% to 45% Murray, on average. Most polls release their voter breakdown, and the recent "Pro-Murray" polls would not. However, it would appear that Democrats are being over-sampled in the recent polls... with Rassmussen being the exception. Rasmussen has consistently shown this race to be neck in neck, with Murray hard pressed to reach the crucial 50% mark, which is saving grace in WA State. In this state there is a restriction on candidates who can make the ballot. It is a 'top-two' law, allowing only the top two vote recipients from the primary to grace the November general election ballot for all races. There are no "none" votes, no third party votes. It will be a direct 100% count between two candidates. I predict that the advantage will go to the challenger by November, and we will see a 50.5% Rossi (R) count to a 49.5% Murray (D) count. In WA state there is a history of close races (closest race in US history was Gregoire over Rossi for Governor in 2004 by 214 votes after the third recount (Rossi was ahead for the first two counts)).
By my prediction, the Republicans will have 51 seats to the Democrat 49 seats in the senate.
*A commentary about the races in the other states:
1. In Florida, Rubio has taken a commanding lead. Unless Democratic underdog Meeks drops the race, Independent challenger and current governor Charlie Crist cannot make up the double digit margin. The Democrats have the seat with a Crist win, and I wonder why they do not ask Meeks to step aside in favor of a huge pick-up in Florida. Stay Tuned.
2. In California, Boxer is still vulnerable, but Fiorina (R) has simply plummeted in the polls. Recent attacks against Meg Whitman (R), who is running for governor, may be hurting the down ticket candidate.
3. Chris Dodd's seat in Connecticut has become a nail biter. The Democratic Blumenthal cannot break 50% in a heavily democratic state, and WWE Mogul McMahonhas considerably closed the gap. I still call this one for the Dems, but McMahon has made this into a race in Democrat safe territory.
**NOTE: this opinion may change and is only the subject of current trends in polling. Any change is due to the sudden political hail mary or major fumble by any candidate in any party.
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