Meeting Dino Rossi & Historic House Turnover

There was an intimate gathering in Silverdale, WA today, where the next US Senator from WA State came to shake hands and kiss babies. It is always interesting to meet candidates face to face. You get a good feel for the type of person they are by their mannerisms and ticks. More importantly, I am always interested to see how tall candidates are. I’ve met some pols that were freakishly tall, and others (Like Al Gore in 1998) who was shockingly short (about 3 inches shorter than me, but he had giant bear-claw hands). Dino Rossi seemed to be about my height at 5’11”, and talked with his hands like a standard grandson of Italian immigrants (My wife is grand-daughter of Greek immigrants – so I GET IT!) In short, I told him to give ‘em hell in DC. He replied with a gracious and sincere ‘God Bless You for your efforts’. Was a great morning.

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Also, a quick look at the House races across the nation; Real Clear Politics is predicting an epic turnover in the House. This morning their polls indicate a 62 seat exchange on average – with a high/low of 78/46. Since 1840, only 16 congressional elections have resulted in political landslides for on party over the other (greater than 48) – mostly due to the increase in the number of states (and thus more seats in the House), Great Depressions, or Great Wars. Since a swing of 75 seats in 1948 in favor of the Democrats, they held the House until the Republican Revolution in 1994 (less two years of slight GOP control from 52-54), with a 54 seat swing. The history of the House is extremely interesting as a fluid body representing the issues of the day; a true indicator of the wisdom of the founding fathers in their creation of the Constitution. It saddens me that current political heads don't respect the founding documents and intent just a little more.

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History of large turnovers in the House of Representatives:

• 1842 saw a 49 seat gain by the Democrats (a net loss of 70 seats by the Whigs) after the Whig Party's POTUS died in office, sending a very unpopular man to fill his role. Unpopular leaders tend to inspire the opposition.


• 1854 bore a crushing blow to the Democrats with a 73 seat loss whilst the American party and Republicans picked up 62 and 46 seats respectively. Immigration, slavery, and talks of secession led to a minority party government representative of a tumultuous climate in the Antebellum States of America.


• In 1872 as the House grew by another 49 seats, the Republicans picked up 63 seats; continuing the post-war dominance of the federal government.


• In 1874, marking an end to the Reconstruction era, the Democrats picked up 94 seats while the Republicans lost 96, giving control of the House to the Democrats for the first time since the War of Northern Aggression.


• 1890 fell on hard economic times, and the ruling Republicans lost 93 seats, giving 86 of them to the Democrats, and control of the house once again.


• A depression in 1894 dealt a crushing blow to the ruling Democratic Party, giving up 125 seats. Republicans gained 130 seats, picking up some from minor parties.


• 1910 saw a 58 seat swing from Republicans to the Democrats, and loss of majority of the House. This was caused mainly due to deep factioning within the Republican Party.


• 1914, Republicans picked up 61 seats from the Democrats, though not enough to retake control of the House.


• 1920’s election turned over an additional 62 seats from the majority Democrats to the Republicans, who took an overwhelming majority in the wake of Wilson’s unpopular decision of World Governing.


• 1922 flopped 72 seats in favor of the Democrats, though not enough to give them a majority.


• 1930, the second year of the Great Depression, gave a 52 seat victory to the Democrats, leaving the Republican party with a slim 2 seat majority.


• In 1932, Republicans lost 101 seats, giving 97 of them to the Democrats and a few to third party candidates.


• 1938 Republicans took 81 seats from Democrats and other minor parties. The democrats still maintained a 60% majority of the House.


• 1942 Republicans picked up 47 seats from Dems, bringing the House back to a near even 50%-50% split.


• Following WWII, in 1946, Republicans picked up 55 seats and the Majority in the House for the first time since the Depression began.


• 1948 gave a 75 seat swing to the Democrats, the majority, and set the stage for 40 years of control of the house (less a short two years from 52-54 by the Republicans).


• The largest turnover in recent history was 54 seats in 1994, a result of the Republican Revolution.

Analyzing the WA State US Senate Race

I have already predicted a close race in Washington, but one where Dino Rossi ultimately unseats the most liberal Western Senator and three term incumbent. This post is a further analysis of my prediction. Before I break down the race, the polls, and the candidate performance, there are a few peculiar laws in this state that require special attention (much like Nevada's 'none of the above' law). In Washington state we operate under a 'Top Two' system for the general election. This means that the top two vote getters, regardless of party affiliation (which is not required to be disclosed by a candidate), are the only two names shown on the ballot for the general election. Furthermore, write in candidates will not be counted unless they met the registration deadline (set as the same deadline for other candidates) and unless the number of non-registered write in votes is significant enough to effect the outcome of the race. That being said, in Washington State, 100% of the votes will be split between the two names on the ballot. All those undecided or "other" numbers in the polls will either not show up, or follow the trends indicated by the polls for 'Independent' voters. That being said, now let us look at the four phases of this race, and why I think Rossi is going to win.

Patty Murray, the popular state legislator who ran as the "Mom in Tennis Shoes" 18 years ago won after a considerable battle proved her to be a heavy weight. She also had the anti Bush 41 movement and the help of a young southerner running for President who won the affection of women across the country - William Jefferson Clinton. Over the years, Murray has proven to be one of the most liberal senators in the nation, and has increasingly become reclusive and out of touch with the voters in Washington State. Murray has won election to her seat three times before, but mostly to individuals with little to no name recognition, and those who have never been involved in a statewide election.

Dino Rossi, a two time runner up for Governor, has wide statewide support and, even as a moderate Republican, is carrying the support of most die-hard conservative Tea Partiers. Dino's name in this race was only suspect, as a group of unknown candidates were scrambling to find their niche in facing Murray. This analysis begins in the early phase of the candidacy, prior to Rossi officially entering the race. Se the chart below:

Early polling placed Rossi within the margin of error of Murray. Anticipation of his entering the race gathered support from Independents who had grown tired of Murray and the D.C. shenanigans. Rossi pulled ahead of Murray in early polling, to the upper limits of the margin of error, placing him as a solid contender to Murray. Rossi announced his candidacy and immediately fell under the sword of Tea Party candidates tearing at a moderate in a wave of conservative movements. Murray's numbers rose as a result of an effective attack on Rossi by Tea Party challenger, Clint Didier. As the somewhat extreme (and sometimes rambling) Didier began to gain momentum, Murray's numbers returned to her near victory margin of 50%.

The state voted in the Primary Election. The top two candidates were Murray and Rossi. This immediately propelled Rossi's numbers in the polls while Murray suffered the fate of being faced off with a serious and viable contender - a Republican who could win in Washington State. Murray's campaign was in a virtual nose dive, even flying Barack Obama out to the state to endorse her, which sunk her numbers even more.

Murray then turned to serious campaign mode, opening her massive lobbyist funded war chest and unleashing a series of attack ads against Rossi. Rossi remained silent, fundraising and hitting the grassroots. As he waited in the wings for his coffers to fill, it looked as if Murray was going to run away with this thing. The people in Washington state began to wonder if Rossi was going to fizzle out under the enormous pocket-book of a Murray campaign.

Alas, Rossi appeared on the air. Rossi challenged debates. Rossi was in the news, on the TV, on the airwaves. To make matters worse, a usually Murray friendly Seattle Times took a neutral stance in this election and began running actual news about the validity of political advertising. With every new ad, the Times would run an assessment of the ad. Murray was found guilty by the media of slinging mud and half truths. Rossi was shown to be more truthful and delivered a more uplifting message. This tactic spoke well with the Independent voters.

The poll numbers show response to the events of the campaigns so far, but the October surprise has been that some polls have been heavily favoring Democrat voters over Republicans. Even with the disparity, Independent voters are swinging toward the Republican challenger, upwards of ten percent in many polls. In Washington State it is the Independent voters that can break the stranglehold of Liberalism held by densely populated King County's Seattle Metro area.

On average, both candidates are at a dead tie 47 percent (Murray 47.455%, Rossi 47.364%). For statistical purposes, throwing out the highest and lowest poll numbers for each, Rossi takes the advantage 47.4 to 47.3. As I said, a dead tie. This race is about getting out the vote. So let's look at what is on the ballot that is going to get folks to return their statewide mail-in ballot.

*note: poll numbers are all from Rassmusen.

The Rossi/Murray race is the top of the ticket. It gets a fair amount of press, and obviously the Republicans have the GOTV momentum, drawing support from Independent voters. what is drawing more attention is a series of tax increases that are being challenged on the ballot. In WA State the legislature is proposing food taxes, state income taxes, constitutional amendments to extend the state debt allowance, etc. It is a fiscal disaster on the ballots this year, and it is drawing massive attention to the economic woes, and the party of incumbents. There are no pressing social issues on the ballot, so alternative lifestyle voters have no rally poll. There are no major issues other than economic battles - higher taxes or starve the uneducated school children. This is the nail in the coffin for Murray. She has to carry the ticket, and carry the platform in a state where she has proven to be less than popular after two decades in office.

Key factors to a Rossi Victory:

1. King County Liberal Turnout - King County swings upwards of 85% Democrat. It is a solid assurance for the Dems, and also is the most populous area in the state. State elections are won and lost in King County, because of King County.
2. Independent voters - IV are now swinging 10% points in favor of Rossi. Statewide that is effective, but a large swing in the urban areas is turning this thing into a Rossi victory. If he stays on message, Murray cannot counter.
3. Murray blew her advertising load too early - Rossi is well known. We all know his dirty laundry. Her early attack ads swung polls in her favor, but it was nothing more than a reminder of that which we all already knew. It gave her a temporary bump, and there is nothing left - no foreseeable 'October Surprise'. Rossi has been well vetted since 2004 in this state. Two runs for Governor has a way of cleaning out your political closet!

This race may not be key for conservatives, but this race IS key for the GOP to take a majority in the US Senate. The WA and NV senate races are going to be the most hard fought races in the history of this union...two races in which neither party can afford to lose.

Rossi (R) versus Murray (D) – Washington State’s US Senate Race

Survey USA released the first ‘post primary’ poll in Washington State, pitting the top two vote getters against one another for the general election. The poll was funded by local News station, King 5, which reported the results on August 20th – Republican challenger, Rossi, received 52% of the support to incumbent Democrat, Murray’s, 45%. This represents a swing of nearly 20% for Rossi following the outcome of the blanket primary, forcing voters to choose from the top-two primary candidates. Murray received 46% of the votes in the primary – which was in line with her 45% polling numbers.

These numbers are promising and troubling at the same time. Promising for Republicans who, after the primary, are eager to put the state’s US Senate race into national spotlight, and put the seat in play – a seat held by a Democrat for the past 24 years. Troubling, in that Rossi is seemingly working overtime to shun the Tea Party movement. Granted Clint Didier, the Tea Party favorite in WA State this year, is making “demands” on Rossi before he will grant his ‘endorsement’ – the only losing candidate still holding out... and I, for one, would not bow to an opponent’s ‘demands’ – especially Didier’s, who is pressing Rossi to sign a situational resignation which would go into effect should Rossi break his conservative contract with WA voters. A good idea, but a tough approach from the distant Tea Part Candidate.

The bottom line is that Murray is in trouble. This is not the climate for an incumbent liberal democrat to be polling in the mid to low 40’s... It has been said that if Murray can be held to 45% in the polls, that come election day, she could easily be defeated. Rossi has just as much name recognition and popularity in the state as the long time incumbent – Rossi was WA state governor-elect until a court battle and drawn out / twice repeated hand recount threw the election to his opponent by 133 votes statewide.

Early polling numbers are bound to change – but the important item of note is that Murray has had a hard time polling above 46 all season. If Rossi can rightfully tie her to Obama’s economy, to her liberal failings, and her ultra-liberal agenda, the Independent voters in WA State are going to continue to rally behind the candidate who is promising something a little different.

Rossi may not be the preferred Tea Party candidate, but he is the Republican candidate for the general election. He is more likely to vote with conservative bills, though less likely to author them. He is more likely to fight Obama’s agenda, but is less likely to stand out as a true adversary to Obama. He may represent the old hat established GOP in the state and nation, but on election day there are two choices: Rossi or Murray. Through hard work and grassroots efforts, Rossi could be suaded to support true Constitutional legislation – Murray, not a chance...

The choice is clear when all other choices have been eliminated – choose the path of least resistance on the ballot; but do not surrender your voice, your vote, or the power of the movement for mere partisan power. Hold true to conservatism and libertarianism, and press the government to endorse the idea of freedom.

I will vote for Rossi come November... I will do so gladly, because between now and then, and for his full term, I will call, write, and take every attempt to talk to the man directly, ensuring that he knows that freedom is more than just another word for 'nothing left to lose'...

WA Primary Results - The Right to Vote versus Voting

Washingtonians have cast their votes, and the results are about what one could expect. The Senate race saw Democrat incumbent Murray pulling in considerably less than the 50% needed for victory in November, Dino Rossi (the establishment backed GOP Candidate) grabbing the majority of the Republican votes, and the Tea Party candidates and "also ran" candidates pulling in about 12% at the highest (Clint Didier). With Washington State's 'top two' primary, Murray and Rossi will be the sole names on the ballot for US Senate in Washington state - the top of the 2010 ticket.

WA State voter turnout for the primary was an embarrassing 26%... Iraqi's are facing mortars and shells in order to get the purple finger at rates upward of 80%... yet the country who is dictating their democracy cannot even find 15 minutes to cast their 'all mail-in' ballot. I think the voters here simply do not care anymore... I polled 4 guys with whom I work, all of whom are vocal political commentators at work - yet two of them failed to vote - one said he simply had no opinion about any candidate.

That being said, Rossi, a long time Republican from the Washington State old hats, a centrist Republican (like Scott Brown) will be leading the conservative charge in WA State. In fact, Tea Party candidates did not fare too well here in the Evergreen state... the reason? Political organizing is dismal in this state - last minute notifications, no political dialogue, no forum for debate... you name it, WA state is the land of apathy, not opportunity - for most. What we are faced with is a minority class of active voters trying to push the rope on the other 75% of the state registered voters.

You can lead a politician to Washington, but you can't stop him from spending, right?

We all have the right to vote, yet we continually see a vast majority of our fellow citizens who refuse to lay claim to that right. I am no political scientist, but my best guess has something to do with the 7 minute attention span, the commercialism of our society, and the absolute distraction in all avenues of our existence. With a constant barrage of advertising, reality TV, and the like, it is no wonder that by the time campaign season comes around we couldn't care less (technically 'they' couldn't care less... I couldn't care more!!!) Why worry about voting once for a Senator, I can text the word 'VOTE' to 64752 as many times as I want for my favorite dancer or singer - standard texting rates apply. We have prioritized the important aspects of our free society right out of our lives... and the result is, well, my monologue from above.

Moving forward, onward to November, it is our duty as the active and thinking branch of the voting citizenry to approach our candidates... Force them into dialogue, press the issues... make sure that they understand that just because everyone else has been scrubbed from the ballot in November does not excuse them from public scrutiny from disenchanted members of their own party. We still have the power to shape the debate. We still have the power to reign in our 'establishment' candidates. We still have a voice, a right, a duty to be an active member of this society, and of this government. We are the FIRST PILLAR of the government... WE THE PEOPLE. So easily we forget...

Let us not forget that 2010 is not simply about a transfer of power between party's... it is about a correction to the wrongs committed against the people of this nation, and the contract between WE and the Govt. 2010, and every election henceforth should be an education on the limited power granted to the government BY the people. It should be a reaffirmation of truth and liberty. It should be the final word of the people... that Liberty will always undo tyranny... That the people do take notice... That we choose to be free...

It is my fear, that 75% of the people will not hear this message.

Liberty is obvious to those who can see it... libertas ad oculos!