Monday, October 4, 2010

Republicans Will Take The Senate?

Officially one month to go until the midterm elections, the referendum on an inexperienced President led by a radical Congress responsible for this nation's hardships. Both parties are anxiously watching close races around the multitude of states, with bated breath as to the outcome. Look no further - I will reveal my prediction of the outcome.

Real Clear Politics predicts a Democratic Senate, with 51 seats to 49 over Republicans (and Tea Party). The Democrats pick up no seats, but are predicted to hold three states in the northeast and all the western states (including HI). However, watching the polling and the numbers behind the trends, as well as the "stagnation" line of certain incumbents, I predict that at least two western states will oust their incumbent senators: Washington and Nevada.

In Nevada, Harry Reid trailed Sharon Angle considerably until her actual nomination, at which point both candidates surged in the polls, Reid taking the advantage by a slim margin. However there are a few behind the scene tea leaves (Pun Intended) to indicate a Tea Party victory over the incumbent Senate Majority Leader. First, Reid's own son is running for Governor of the state, yet he refuses to campaign using his last name. You cannot make this stuff up! His father is so unpopular that the young Rory Reid is campaigning on a "Vote Rory" message and still trailing by double digits to his Republican Challenger. One could expect the Reid-Rage to stick on election day as voters select neither of the Reids. Secondly, Harry Reid's numbers have yet to break 47 in polling. Any incumbent polling below 50% cannot be sleeping soundly through the night. In fact, Reid's sudden spike in the polls has dropped after the uncertainty surrounding an unknown Tea Party candidate has dissipated, and all current polls show both candidates within the margin of error with one another. Finally, Nevada has a state law allowing voters to cast their vote for "none of the above". This is to Reid's disadvantage, though he originally intended to use it to his advantage. Reid had hoped that Moderates and Republicans unwilling to back a Tea Party candidate would vote "None"... however, with so many undecideds this close to the race, it appears that Reid voters will vote "None" over Reid before GOP voters turn their back on the Tea Party Angle. I predict Angle (R) winning the seat with 49% of the vote, Reid getting 47%, and 4% going to the other 6 candidates or "None".

In Washington State we have hardcore liberal incumbent Patty Murray (D) pushing ahead of Moderate Republican Dino Rossi in recent polls. Murray refuses to debate Rossi who is forcing her to answer to her vote history, and has spent millions on personal character attacks on the former WA State legislator - a common theme when a candidate needs to push the polls. However, Murray's war chest may not be working to her advantage as well as polls would indicate. Murray's recent surge in the polls has fooled Real Clear Politics, but analysis of how the polls were conducted sheds light onto the disparities. Independents are breaking heavily for Rossi, at a rate of more than 55% to 45% Murray, on average. Most polls release their voter breakdown, and the recent "Pro-Murray" polls would not. However, it would appear that Democrats are being over-sampled in the recent polls... with Rassmussen being the exception. Rasmussen has consistently shown this race to be neck in neck, with Murray hard pressed to reach the crucial 50% mark, which is saving grace in WA State. In this state there is a restriction on candidates who can make the ballot. It is a 'top-two' law, allowing only the top two vote recipients from the primary to grace the November general election ballot for all races. There are no "none" votes, no third party votes. It will be a direct 100% count between two candidates. I predict that the advantage will go to the challenger by November, and we will see a 50.5% Rossi (R) count to a 49.5% Murray (D) count. In WA state there is a history of close races (closest race in US history was Gregoire over Rossi for Governor in 2004 by 214 votes after the third recount (Rossi was ahead for the first two counts)).

By my prediction, the Republicans will have 51 seats to the Democrat 49 seats in the senate.

*A commentary about the races in the other states:
1. In Florida, Rubio has taken a commanding lead. Unless Democratic underdog Meeks drops the race, Independent challenger and current governor Charlie Crist cannot make up the double digit margin. The Democrats have the seat with a Crist win, and I wonder why they do not ask Meeks to step aside in favor of a huge pick-up in Florida. Stay Tuned.

2. In California, Boxer is still vulnerable, but Fiorina (R) has simply plummeted in the polls. Recent attacks against Meg Whitman (R), who is running for governor, may be hurting the down ticket candidate.

3. Chris Dodd's seat in Connecticut has become a nail biter. The Democratic Blumenthal cannot break 50% in a heavily democratic state, and WWE Mogul McMahonhas considerably closed the gap. I still call this one for the Dems, but McMahon has made this into a race in Democrat safe territory.

**NOTE: this opinion may change and is only the subject of current trends in polling. Any change is due to the sudden political hail mary or major fumble by any candidate in any party.


  1. I LOVE YOUR OPTIMISM. I hope you are right especially about Nevada!

    Common Cents

  2. From your mouth to God's ears. Excellent analysis, IMHO.

  3. RCP is calling Nevada for Sharon Angle as of October 6th 6:00PM PT. Things can change, but so far I stand by my predictions and Nevada, IMHO, will stay a Tea Party state come November!