Fred Thompson stole the show last night at the Republican National Convention. His energized and moving toast to John McCain and Sarah Palin at the top of the ticket inspired Republicans and set the tone for how tough this ticket is going to be for Democrats in November.
He hit Obama and the Democratic controlled congress hard – claiming that their politics do not represent change, rather, they represent the same old stuff they have been peddling for years. Fred Thompson threw down the gauntlet on the liberal notion of change, and on the liberal definition of progress. The change is that the Democrats plan to run the most liberal government, establish the most liberal bureaucracies, and ensure the most liberal judges in the history of the US – the sure undoing of the intended freedoms established by our founding fathers.
But the best line of the entire speech was this: “A man who never quits is never defeated”. John McCain is that man. He has spent an entire career fighting the Republican Establishment – challenging change in his own right. Some of his issues are not my favorites (immigration reform and campaign finance reform), but his pursuit of what he believed to be right has won him notice on the national stage, and branded him as the original maverick. John McCain and Sarah Palin represent reform for the GOP, and a different kind of hope for America – a hope that we can return to conservative government that is smaller and more locally controlled, a government that balances it’s budget and controls wasted spending, and a government that eliminates taxes and allows Americans to keep their hard earned money. Fred Thompson made it clear that McCain/Palin is the best bet for America. The full video of his speech is below:
Showing posts with label Fred Thompson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fred Thompson. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Conservative Coalition to take down McCain?
McCain can lock the GOP nomination by securing 54% of the remaining delegates.
Huckabee needs an impossible 91% to do the same.
However, if McCain does not lock the nomination, we go to a brokered convention.
Should Huckabee pull within 100 - 300 delegate votes of McCain by the end of this thing, Romney and Thompson may consider endorsing Huckabee, asking their pledged delegates to vote Huckabee at the convention, and we could see the Conservative Coalition take down McCain.
This should be the new focus of the campaign... Conservative Coalition.
For those of you who claim that Huckabee is not a conservative... remember, there is Social conservative, Fiscal Conservative, and Military conservative... That is Huckabee, Romney, Thompson... The three of them working together could derail the McCain Express.
Conservative Coalition anyone?
Huckabee/Palin, Huckabee/Thompson, Huckabee/Romney with top cabinet posts for the coalition...
Conservative Coalition!
(I think I am the first to propose this: 12:30 MT - let's see if it catches on)
Huckabee needs an impossible 91% to do the same.
However, if McCain does not lock the nomination, we go to a brokered convention.
Should Huckabee pull within 100 - 300 delegate votes of McCain by the end of this thing, Romney and Thompson may consider endorsing Huckabee, asking their pledged delegates to vote Huckabee at the convention, and we could see the Conservative Coalition take down McCain.
This should be the new focus of the campaign... Conservative Coalition.
For those of you who claim that Huckabee is not a conservative... remember, there is Social conservative, Fiscal Conservative, and Military conservative... That is Huckabee, Romney, Thompson... The three of them working together could derail the McCain Express.
Conservative Coalition anyone?
Huckabee/Palin, Huckabee/Thompson, Huckabee/Romney with top cabinet posts for the coalition...
Conservative Coalition!
(I think I am the first to propose this: 12:30 MT - let's see if it catches on)
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Political Spin Post Fred Thompson
There has been much speculation about where the "Fred-Heads" will be going now that Thompson is out of the race. I have heard a lot of vocal and angry supporters of Fred who will want nothing to do with Huckabee... These are most likely the individuals who fought the Huckabee supporters so hard back when Huck was at 2% and the Huckamaniacs were chomping at the bit to get a piece of Fred Thompson, who was stealing Huck's spot as the only social conservative in the race.
Things have sure changed since last July!
But I had to comment on one report that I just saw, which was BOASTING that Fred Thompson supporters were flocking to Mitt Romney. In this post, it was stated that in California, 30% of Thompson supporters identified that Romney was their 2nd choice.
The spin, is that they are NOT reporting that 70% of Thompson supporters in California are NOT supporting Romney as their 2nd choice.
This is all political fun and fluff... but I just had to call 'em on it! 30 < 70 ... nothing to boast about!
Things have sure changed since last July!
But I had to comment on one report that I just saw, which was BOASTING that Fred Thompson supporters were flocking to Mitt Romney. In this post, it was stated that in California, 30% of Thompson supporters identified that Romney was their 2nd choice.
The spin, is that they are NOT reporting that 70% of Thompson supporters in California are NOT supporting Romney as their 2nd choice.
This is all political fun and fluff... but I just had to call 'em on it! 30 < 70 ... nothing to boast about!
GOP: So, Who Has the Momentum Again?
It is January 24th, 2008... Five days before the Florida showdown... Twelve days before Super Tuesday. A number of contests have cleared the field of candidates who failed to materialize, leaving behind a race that is as out of the ordinary as a San Francisco Conservative.Huckabee claimed first blood in Iowa, taking the state from the long time favorite there, Mitt Romney. The Huckaboom had paid off, and Huck's momentum was back.
Fast on his tail was John McCain, perhaps in anticipation of his contest in New Hampshire, where Independents were able to rally behind their man as they did 8 years prior. John McCain's win in New Hampshire helped further propel his numbers in the positive direction, giving him the highest level of support since entering the race over a year ago.
Meanwhile, smaller and less contested races were taking place in states like Wyoming, Michigan, and Nevada... Victories out of these states heralded little notice by the press, but the delegates counted just the same as in the traditional early states. Mitt Romney's victories in these widely uncontested states did little to add to his momentum, though there is something to be said for leading the delegate count before Super Tuesday, and that is the headline he was hoping for.
Rudy Guiliani has yet to break 10% in a contest in the early states. His strategy of "Go Big or Go Home", where he is playing in states with only sizable delegate counts, has done little more than employ an army of campaign eulogy writers... but for Rudy, there is always Florida, right?
And all the while, Ron Paul and his supporters, after stacking every online poll in an attempt to appear as a front-runner, has been unable to muster more than 5% nationally in the polls, and has had his best showing in an uncontested Nevada, where he placed a very distant 2nd.
So I ask the question... Who has the momentum again?
The answer is simply: No One!
Fred Thompson's drop from the race, and lack of an expected endorsement, has left a large field of undecided voters hesitant to join any one campaign. The lack of a McCain endorsement has further served to help add gravity to McCain's falling national numbers, as voters remember why his campaign imploded over the summer: Immigration.
Duncan Hunter, yesterday, in an attempt to help swings some momentum in the direction of the Social Conservatives, endorsed Mike Huckabee... unfortunately this endorsement received little fanfare from the media, as they have all but declared the Huckabee campaign a bust. Huckabee is doing little to help his own campaign by not aggressively pursuing Thompson's supporters. Instead his campaign released a short press advisory welcoming support... while at the same time his campaign Chairman Chip Saltzman took a hit at Fred Thompson on the Mike Huckabee Campaign Blog. Huckabee missed an opportunity to claim victory in SC after the contest, by claiming that Fred's withdrawal, had it happened prior to the race, would have made him the clear victor.
Rudy's numbers have flatlined, which for him is a good thing at this point. A flatline is much better than the nose-dive he was seeing. This hesitation in the plummet may be temporary, unless he can pull off a come from behind win in Florida. Rudy's only source of momentum is anticipation of Florida... but all the momentum leads up to is a simple "no change".
Mitt Romney seems unable to break the invisible barrier of 16% in the national polls. His campaign had surged in the past, only to hit 16% and fall... rising again, only to fall again... he is at 15.8%, but the trend is ominous for his campaign!
It is hard to say what will happen in the debate tonight, but easy to see what must be done. There is a new flood of undecided Thompson voters that could cling to a new campaign and propel that campaign to the White House. Every person left on that stage needs to spend tonight aggressively wooing the ex-Fred-heads. The candidate who stands to pick up the votes MUST be conservative socially (this excludes Rudy and potentially McCain), must be strong, and must actually ASK for their support... no subtleties... now is not the time!
With no momentum from any candidate, no clear front-runner, and all candidates within 10% of being the leader on a very fluid scale... We start tonight at square ONE!
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Fred Thompson Drops Bid
As of 2:00 PM MT on Tuesday Jan 22nd, Fmr Senator Fred Thompson is no longer continuing his bid for the White House.
The candidate that broke into the scene with authority and inevitability this summer had trouble maintaining his early surge of popularity, and subsequently, of organizing an effective campaign leading up to the Super Tuesday showdown. After a series of very disappointing showings, Thompson has announced that he will be withdrawing from the race.
Thompson has decided not to make an endorsement in the race between the remaining candidates, which could prove to be a boost to the Huckabee campaign, and a hit to Romney and McCain who could have used such an endorsement to clearly come ahead as the front-runner.
Now, with a new field of candidates, all eyes are on Florida!
Monday, January 21, 2008
My Thoughts in a post SC world...
There are ten days between SC and Florida... and another week after that until Super Tuesday. So what do the next two weeks hold in store?
We have already seen Duncan Hunter drop the race after a predictably poor showing in SC.
So who is next?
The headlines of the morning papers today, as seen on eGOPnews.com, are hinting that Fred Thompson is considering dropping the race after he was able to do little more than play the spoiler to the Huckabee campaign... of course they hinted at that before... but Fred had said that he needed a win or a strong second in SC to have a chance. And anyone who watched Fred's concession speech were left scratching their heads, wondering if he botched a withdrawal speech, or if he was trying to rally the troops on into Florida:
The AP Reports:
With Fred Thompson out, the race will become a McCain, Huckabee, Romney, Rudy contest... heading into Florida where they are all within 7 points of one another, it will be a race to distinguish the have's from the have-not's in the GOP Primary.
Current poll averages have the top four hovering around 20%, and Thompson & Paul way behind the field with 8.5 and 5 points respectively.
Should Thompson drop, and likely endorse McCain, one would wonder if Fred's social conservatives could get behind McCain, who has been no friend to Social issues... Rudy and Romney will likely not benefit from Fred's voters as much as McCain and Huckabee will. Should those votes distribute evenly, we should expect similar results as we saw in SC happening in Florida.
If Fred does not drop out, it will likely only serve to keep Huckabee's numbers low and help his friend McCain, as was the case in SC.
Moving into Super Tuesday without Fred could definitely shake things up. None of the top four are out, but Rudy is close, especially without Florida.
We should all listen very hard to any chatter coming out of the Thompson campaign. Once he makes a move to stay in or get out, we can better handicap the Florida race.
One thing is certain... Romney is counting on a brokered convention, where his wins in uncontested states may help... at least until Super Tuesday... then he could find himself falling to the rear of the pack... But when you have a brokered convention, every delegate counts!
I will provide updates if any news breaks...
We have already seen Duncan Hunter drop the race after a predictably poor showing in SC.
So who is next?
The headlines of the morning papers today, as seen on eGOPnews.com, are hinting that Fred Thompson is considering dropping the race after he was able to do little more than play the spoiler to the Huckabee campaign... of course they hinted at that before... but Fred had said that he needed a win or a strong second in SC to have a chance. And anyone who watched Fred's concession speech were left scratching their heads, wondering if he botched a withdrawal speech, or if he was trying to rally the troops on into Florida:
The AP Reports:
Despite the situation, Thompson was expected to bow out after failing to
win the states where he had hoped to perform strongly, Iowa and South Carolina.
The former Tennessee senator and "Law & Order" actor returned home after
delivering a speech in South Carolina on Saturday that sounded like he was
calling it quits. He stopped short of doing so but some supporters suspected it
would only be a matter of time before Thompson withdraws.
Before South Carolina, several aides had said he probably would need to
finish first or a strong second in that race to go forward. Aides didn't expect
a decision from Thompson until sometime after the weekend.
With Fred Thompson out, the race will become a McCain, Huckabee, Romney, Rudy contest... heading into Florida where they are all within 7 points of one another, it will be a race to distinguish the have's from the have-not's in the GOP Primary.
Current poll averages have the top four hovering around 20%, and Thompson & Paul way behind the field with 8.5 and 5 points respectively.
Should Thompson drop, and likely endorse McCain, one would wonder if Fred's social conservatives could get behind McCain, who has been no friend to Social issues... Rudy and Romney will likely not benefit from Fred's voters as much as McCain and Huckabee will. Should those votes distribute evenly, we should expect similar results as we saw in SC happening in Florida.
If Fred does not drop out, it will likely only serve to keep Huckabee's numbers low and help his friend McCain, as was the case in SC.
Moving into Super Tuesday without Fred could definitely shake things up. None of the top four are out, but Rudy is close, especially without Florida.
We should all listen very hard to any chatter coming out of the Thompson campaign. Once he makes a move to stay in or get out, we can better handicap the Florida race.
One thing is certain... Romney is counting on a brokered convention, where his wins in uncontested states may help... at least until Super Tuesday... then he could find himself falling to the rear of the pack... But when you have a brokered convention, every delegate counts!
I will provide updates if any news breaks...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
How Will SC Vote Today?
And another contest begins in the presidential race of 2008 today. South Carolina's voting polls are open and only time will tell what the results are.
Some interesting happenings over the last days since Michigan... Mitt Romney is in search of delegates, hoping that delegate count in the "jump to the front" states will mean more than the traditional "first in the nation" states. He had abandoned his campaign in SC, claiming that 4th would be a victory, and instead opted to aim for Nevada, a Mormon stronghold, and a state also offering about ten more delegates. He took a similar approach in Wyoming, a Mormon state, where he was the only candidate who honestly campaigned in the state. He and Duncan Hunter were big winners in Wyoming... so that says something, I suppose.
But what about South Carolina? The state in which no GOP candidate of recent years has lost, but gone on to receive the GOP nomination. A state with strong ties to faith, independence, civil rights issues, and agrarian history. It is a state which encompasses the values of Iowa and New Hampshire... And it is truly a state which must be won by many in the GOP field today if they wish to continue the race for the GOP nomination.
Time for my predictions:
Romney has made it clear that he plans to hold out for delegates. As I see this being a brokered convention, this is a smart move. He may be in the lead with delegates now, but he will find himself in the middle of the pack after Super Tuesday. Recent polling has shown that he is not doing well in a majority of the Super Tuesday states.
McCain will lick his wounds and live to fight another day... namely in Florida, where he and Rudy seem to be leading the polls... surely, though, a loss in SC will make Florida a hard win. And his recent surge in the national polls will likely be busted in favor of the SC winner.
Mike Huckabee, if he does get the win as I am predicting, will see another surge of support, similar to his Huckaboom of December, and his resurgence after Iowa (though short lived because of NH). Mike Huckabee is a contender in Florida, and has many states locked up in the Super Tuesday contest. He may come out 2nd or possibly 1st after super tuesday (in delegates) with a commanding win in SC. A second place finish will likely ensure a VP consideration, especially if it kills any chance of gaining momentum before Super Tuesday.
Thompson is plagued with 4th place finishes across the board so far, and one tie for third in Iowa. If South Carolina doesn't pan out for Thompson, he will have some serious soul searching to do. The best Thompson may hope for is a McCain victory, and a VP nod from his good friend... However, a surprise win or 2nd place finish tonight could give this summer's "Mr. Inevitable" a breath of life, and potentially a surge of support and delegates heading into Super Tuesday.
Rudy is still holding out for Florida, but as I have said before, with no momentum, no headlines, and waning support. This may be the biggest blunder in presidential campaigning since the Howard Dean scream... YYYEEEEAAAAHHHH!
All eyes are on SC. And for those looking ahead to Super Tuesday, what can we expect to see?
If my prediction of SC is correct, I expect the following:
*WTA = Winner Takes All delegates (by districts or entire state)
Alabama (primary - WTA districts - 48): Huckabee
Alaska (caucus - 29): Huckabee
Arizona (straw poll - WTA state - 53): McCain
Arkansas (primary - WTA district - 34): Huckabee
California (primary - WTA district - 173): Rudy (if he wins Florida)
Colorado (caucus - 46): Huckabee
Connecticut (primary - WTA state - 30): Rudy
Delaware (primary - WTA state - 18): Rudy
Georgia (primary - WTA district - 72): Huckabee
Illinois (straw poll - 70): Huckabee
Massachusetts (primary - 43): Romney
Minnesota (caucus - 41): Huckabee
Missouri (primary - WTA state - 58): Rudy
Montana (caucus - WTA state - 25): Huckabee
New Jersey (primary - WTA state - 52): Rudy
New York (primary - WTA state - 101): Rudy
North Dakota (caucus - WTA state - 26): Huckabee
Oklahoma (primary - WTA district - 41): Huckabee
Tennessee (primary - 55): Thompson
Utah (primary - WTA state - 36): Romney
West Virginia (convention - WTA - 30): Huckabee
Delegate count is nearly impossible, because some states are WTA by district, or proportional... But, let's look at total number of states won:
Rudy: 6 of 21
Huckabee: 11 of 21
McCain: 1 of 21
Romney: 2 of 21
Thompson: 1 of 21
Let's see how SC plays out, and I will be glad to modify these numbers. My predictions come from latest polls in those states, or state voting trends (by issues) where polls where not available, as well as predicted bumps by the predicted SC and Florida finishes.
Some interesting happenings over the last days since Michigan... Mitt Romney is in search of delegates, hoping that delegate count in the "jump to the front" states will mean more than the traditional "first in the nation" states. He had abandoned his campaign in SC, claiming that 4th would be a victory, and instead opted to aim for Nevada, a Mormon stronghold, and a state also offering about ten more delegates. He took a similar approach in Wyoming, a Mormon state, where he was the only candidate who honestly campaigned in the state. He and Duncan Hunter were big winners in Wyoming... so that says something, I suppose.
But what about South Carolina? The state in which no GOP candidate of recent years has lost, but gone on to receive the GOP nomination. A state with strong ties to faith, independence, civil rights issues, and agrarian history. It is a state which encompasses the values of Iowa and New Hampshire... And it is truly a state which must be won by many in the GOP field today if they wish to continue the race for the GOP nomination.
Time for my predictions:
What does this mean?Huckabee........30%
McCain.............26%
Thompson.......19%
Romney.............14%
Rudy.....................6%
Paul......................5%
Romney has made it clear that he plans to hold out for delegates. As I see this being a brokered convention, this is a smart move. He may be in the lead with delegates now, but he will find himself in the middle of the pack after Super Tuesday. Recent polling has shown that he is not doing well in a majority of the Super Tuesday states.
McCain will lick his wounds and live to fight another day... namely in Florida, where he and Rudy seem to be leading the polls... surely, though, a loss in SC will make Florida a hard win. And his recent surge in the national polls will likely be busted in favor of the SC winner.
Mike Huckabee, if he does get the win as I am predicting, will see another surge of support, similar to his Huckaboom of December, and his resurgence after Iowa (though short lived because of NH). Mike Huckabee is a contender in Florida, and has many states locked up in the Super Tuesday contest. He may come out 2nd or possibly 1st after super tuesday (in delegates) with a commanding win in SC. A second place finish will likely ensure a VP consideration, especially if it kills any chance of gaining momentum before Super Tuesday.
Thompson is plagued with 4th place finishes across the board so far, and one tie for third in Iowa. If South Carolina doesn't pan out for Thompson, he will have some serious soul searching to do. The best Thompson may hope for is a McCain victory, and a VP nod from his good friend... However, a surprise win or 2nd place finish tonight could give this summer's "Mr. Inevitable" a breath of life, and potentially a surge of support and delegates heading into Super Tuesday.
Rudy is still holding out for Florida, but as I have said before, with no momentum, no headlines, and waning support. This may be the biggest blunder in presidential campaigning since the Howard Dean scream... YYYEEEEAAAAHHHH!
All eyes are on SC. And for those looking ahead to Super Tuesday, what can we expect to see?
If my prediction of SC is correct, I expect the following:
*WTA = Winner Takes All delegates (by districts or entire state)
Alabama (primary - WTA districts - 48): Huckabee
Alaska (caucus - 29): Huckabee
Arizona (straw poll - WTA state - 53): McCain
Arkansas (primary - WTA district - 34): Huckabee
California (primary - WTA district - 173): Rudy (if he wins Florida)
Colorado (caucus - 46): Huckabee
Connecticut (primary - WTA state - 30): Rudy
Delaware (primary - WTA state - 18): Rudy
Georgia (primary - WTA district - 72): Huckabee
Illinois (straw poll - 70): Huckabee
Massachusetts (primary - 43): Romney
Minnesota (caucus - 41): Huckabee
Missouri (primary - WTA state - 58): Rudy
Montana (caucus - WTA state - 25): Huckabee
New Jersey (primary - WTA state - 52): Rudy
New York (primary - WTA state - 101): Rudy
North Dakota (caucus - WTA state - 26): Huckabee
Oklahoma (primary - WTA district - 41): Huckabee
Tennessee (primary - 55): Thompson
Utah (primary - WTA state - 36): Romney
West Virginia (convention - WTA - 30): Huckabee
Delegate count is nearly impossible, because some states are WTA by district, or proportional... But, let's look at total number of states won:
Rudy: 6 of 21
Huckabee: 11 of 21
McCain: 1 of 21
Romney: 2 of 21
Thompson: 1 of 21
Let's see how SC plays out, and I will be glad to modify these numbers. My predictions come from latest polls in those states, or state voting trends (by issues) where polls where not available, as well as predicted bumps by the predicted SC and Florida finishes.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Republican Race Open, but not THAT Open
This blog is in response to a comment on my previous post, by Ben Degrow over at Mt Virtus. His comment reads:
Regarding Romney's landslide... we must consider the fact that Michigan is an open priamry state, and the Democrats had nothing to vote for on their ticket... so:
Let's discuss how open the race is, and what SC means to which candidates.
Ben, who is a Fred Thompson guy, seems to be holding out for Thompson in SC. And Fred Thompson, who seems to sometimes be a Fred Thompson guy, is also holding out for something big in SC. I just don't see that happening. Fred is in SC, trying to make his stand, but doing so with absolutely no momentum from the first three contests. In the state, Fred Thompson support has gone from over 20% to just under 10% in the last three months... and nothing has happened to suggest a boomlet in Thompson's favor. I still stand by my word that this may be Thompson's last stand. Anything less than a 2nd place finish for Thompson in SC kills any chance for a momentum boomlet. (My Iowa prediction of Thomspon's withdrawal was hampered by a close third place battle between he and McCain, which almost forced him to stay in and take a stand in SC... but it did not help his numbers... they continue to fall)
So to answer the question of "is SC really a McCain, Romney, Thompson showdown?"... the answer is no... the race is open, but not that open! And Huckabee is still alive and well in the Palmetto State. Romney's win yesterday likely stifled McCain's boom, but I don't think it hurt Huckabee... What is hurting Huckabee is the McCain boom... so Romney's wion can only help Huckabee in SC. Based on the intensity of McCain's surge post NH, which was unforeseen at the time I made the two man race prediction, SC is very much a three way race. But Thompson is not in the top three. It will be a Huckabee, McCain, Romney battle in SC. Thompson, unless he can muster up some momentum in the next week, will likely be finished... I know I predicted a withdrawal after Iowa, but maybe the old man stays in to be part of the delegate race. The 4th place finish will be an embarrassment to the Thompson campaign. Remember, Thompson was elevated to savior status before getting into the race. He has, arguably, yet to finish above 4th (or 200 votes from finishing 4th in Iowa)
Regarding the Intratrade... I visited the intratrade site, and there was not an option to buy Huckabee stock in the state. He is not listed. Never was. So I am not using that as a measuring device.
The race is open... indeed! It could not be looking better for Rudy in Florida, though I think his decision to sit out the early contests likely makes him a non-contender in Super Tuesday states now... perhaps Florida could turn that around.
But what do I see in my crystal ball?
For starters, I will tell you what I did NOT see. I did NOT see McCain having such an effective surge... especially in the wake of the Illegal Immigration Shamnesty plan that he tried to ram down our throats. Maybe Tancredo's withdrawal from the race took some of that pressure off McCain, and the issue out of the limelight.
I did NOT see Rudy falling off as much as he has! Rudy is currently polling nationally at 13%, tied with Romney for a distant 3rd. By the time we get to Florida, Rudy will likely be battling Fred in national polls for 4th, somewhere around 10%. That is not a good place to be heading into Super Duper Tuesday.
And I did NOT see Ron Paul beating out Thompson in a state like Michigan. That doesn't do much for Ron Paul at this point, but it doesn't say much for Thompson's support in the state of Michigan.
At this point, we need to take a compass reading. Nevada will likely not give us that reading. Nevada is so wide open, and clearly blowing in the direction of the momentum, that it will likely be a race between the top four: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee, Romney.
If McCain takes SC, McCain will likely win out. If Huckabee takes SC, it will likely move the battle to a two man race on super tuesday. If Romney takes SC, Huckabee's run is likely over, and McCain will likely win out on Super Tuesday, with Romney and Huckabee finishing in a series of 2nds and 3rds... obviously some 1st's in their stronghold states. I don't see Rudy's plan paying off, and I don't see Fred Thompson as a major player anymore.
I am still predicting a brokered convention...
One thing that I know is that the water is very muddy leading up to Super Tuesday!
God Bless!
Let me first begin by congratulating Mitt Romney on his win in Michigan. Michigan was always a pro Romney state, but the big surprise was the McCain surge, making Huckabee a non-player in the state. Ben is right on, and I agree that this race is still open... and it will continue to defy the pundits and predictions... However, without predictions, what fun is it in tracking the race so closely?Respectfully...You wrote in an earlier post: "Should Mitt Romney take the top spot in Michigan, he and Huckabee will battle it out in SC, where it will likely be Huckabee's last stand." Given this previous statement and the fact that Huckabee SC shares are not selling at all on Intrades, do you see anything in tonight's modest 3rd-place MI performance (you predicted he would win here, so this has got to be a big disappointment) to turn around his plummeting SC numbers? Do you see SC as a 3-way race between McCain, Romney, & Thompson (whom you earlier predicted would dropout after the Iowa caucuses)? Do you still think Thompson will have an"embarrassing finish" in SC and withdraw? After this unexpected turn of events (Huckabee in IA, McCain in NH, now Romney in MI), how big of an opening do you see for Rudy's strategy to pay off? Do you agree that this race will continue to defy the pundits & the predictions? (http://bendegrow.com/2008/romney-wins-now-what/)
Regarding Romney's landslide... we must consider the fact that Michigan is an open priamry state, and the Democrats had nothing to vote for on their ticket... so:
Michigan's open primary means Republicans, Democrats, and independents can all
vote in it. Since there's no contested primary on the Dem side, their
participation in the GOP contest could be a wild card. Daily Kos steward
Markos Moulitsas, hoping desperately to be mistaken for a Machiavellian genius,
is encouraging his minions to vote for Romney for mischief's sake, under the
assumption that if he doesn't win today, he drops out. Kos reasons his
side prefers Romney staying in the race so that the well-funded bloodsport of
primary battling will continue among Republicans, presumably injuring the
eventual nominee.
Let's discuss how open the race is, and what SC means to which candidates.
Ben, who is a Fred Thompson guy, seems to be holding out for Thompson in SC. And Fred Thompson, who seems to sometimes be a Fred Thompson guy, is also holding out for something big in SC. I just don't see that happening. Fred is in SC, trying to make his stand, but doing so with absolutely no momentum from the first three contests. In the state, Fred Thompson support has gone from over 20% to just under 10% in the last three months... and nothing has happened to suggest a boomlet in Thompson's favor. I still stand by my word that this may be Thompson's last stand. Anything less than a 2nd place finish for Thompson in SC kills any chance for a momentum boomlet. (My Iowa prediction of Thomspon's withdrawal was hampered by a close third place battle between he and McCain, which almost forced him to stay in and take a stand in SC... but it did not help his numbers... they continue to fall)
So to answer the question of "is SC really a McCain, Romney, Thompson showdown?"... the answer is no... the race is open, but not that open! And Huckabee is still alive and well in the Palmetto State. Romney's win yesterday likely stifled McCain's boom, but I don't think it hurt Huckabee... What is hurting Huckabee is the McCain boom... so Romney's wion can only help Huckabee in SC. Based on the intensity of McCain's surge post NH, which was unforeseen at the time I made the two man race prediction, SC is very much a three way race. But Thompson is not in the top three. It will be a Huckabee, McCain, Romney battle in SC. Thompson, unless he can muster up some momentum in the next week, will likely be finished... I know I predicted a withdrawal after Iowa, but maybe the old man stays in to be part of the delegate race. The 4th place finish will be an embarrassment to the Thompson campaign. Remember, Thompson was elevated to savior status before getting into the race. He has, arguably, yet to finish above 4th (or 200 votes from finishing 4th in Iowa)
Regarding the Intratrade... I visited the intratrade site, and there was not an option to buy Huckabee stock in the state. He is not listed. Never was. So I am not using that as a measuring device.
The race is open... indeed! It could not be looking better for Rudy in Florida, though I think his decision to sit out the early contests likely makes him a non-contender in Super Tuesday states now... perhaps Florida could turn that around.
But what do I see in my crystal ball?For starters, I will tell you what I did NOT see. I did NOT see McCain having such an effective surge... especially in the wake of the Illegal Immigration Shamnesty plan that he tried to ram down our throats. Maybe Tancredo's withdrawal from the race took some of that pressure off McCain, and the issue out of the limelight.
I did NOT see Rudy falling off as much as he has! Rudy is currently polling nationally at 13%, tied with Romney for a distant 3rd. By the time we get to Florida, Rudy will likely be battling Fred in national polls for 4th, somewhere around 10%. That is not a good place to be heading into Super Duper Tuesday.
And I did NOT see Ron Paul beating out Thompson in a state like Michigan. That doesn't do much for Ron Paul at this point, but it doesn't say much for Thompson's support in the state of Michigan.
At this point, we need to take a compass reading. Nevada will likely not give us that reading. Nevada is so wide open, and clearly blowing in the direction of the momentum, that it will likely be a race between the top four: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee, Romney.
If McCain takes SC, McCain will likely win out. If Huckabee takes SC, it will likely move the battle to a two man race on super tuesday. If Romney takes SC, Huckabee's run is likely over, and McCain will likely win out on Super Tuesday, with Romney and Huckabee finishing in a series of 2nds and 3rds... obviously some 1st's in their stronghold states. I don't see Rudy's plan paying off, and I don't see Fred Thompson as a major player anymore.
I am still predicting a brokered convention...
One thing that I know is that the water is very muddy leading up to Super Tuesday!
God Bless!
Monday, January 7, 2008
Predictions for the NH Primary
Real Clear Politics is showing a new trend after the Iowa Caucus, and in anticipation of the New Hampshire Caucus: Mike Huckabee and John McCain are surging nationally, while Rudy Giuliani (who is seeing his lowest numbers of the race) and Mitt Romney are free-falling. In fact, the latest polls show a three way tie for first: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee... but unfortunately for Rudy, his numbers are falling and it will not be too long before his campaign is through... At this rate, I doubt that he will make it to Super Tuesday in one piece... so it looks like his "Go Big or Go Home" approach to delegates (focusing only on the Super Tuesday states) has failed... or is in the midst of failing.
But what about taking a look at New Hampshire? How is tomorrow going to play out? The debates showed that there are four candidates in this race nationally: McCain, Huckabee, Rudy, and Romney. Thompson will likely not register in these polls, and may hold out for South Carolina... but after an embarrassing finish there, he will withdraw.
I call NH this way for the Republicans:
McCain: 37%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 10%
Rudy: 9%
Thompson: 1%
NH Dems:
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 24%
Richardson: 6%
Kucinich: 5%
On the Republican side, the poor 2nd place showing will be a second blow to the already critically wounded (post Iowa) Romney Campaign. After a 2nd place finish in NH, Michigan wont much matter, and there are no other states where Romney is polling in first besides Utah (and perhaps MA, but I don't know... the last poll was from April of 2007).
Fred Thompson is not expecting anything out of NH, and only showed up in the state for the debates, then it was off to SC where he is facing a 2:1 deficit to Mike Huckabee, who leads the state. After a fourth place finish (to Huckabee, McCain, and Mitt or Rudy)... perhaps a 3rd place finish if Mitt and Rudy continue to slip, Fred will give a speech along the lines of: "Well... we gave it a good run... but it looks like it wasn't meant to be... so I will be withdrawing my campaign from the race, and endorsing John McCain"
John McCain will get a huge boost from an overwhelming win in NH. This boost will likely propel him to a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Michigan, and make him a contender (likely finishing 2nd) in SC. This will give him some momentum going into Super Tuesday. I say SOME because he will not do well in Florida, so there will be one loss just days before Super Tuesday.
Mike Huckabee's convincing 3rd place finish will reignite the huckaboom, and add to his momentum from Iowa. He will likely go on to win in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida... giving him the big Mo' heading into Super Tuesday. This is going to be a Huckabee McCain race to the finish.
Rudy's gamble of waiting for Super Tuesday did not pay off. He will have no momentum going into Florida, and likely finish second to Huckabee. This blow will lead to a lackluster performance on Super Tuesday. Rudy will likely hold out for the National Convention, hoping to win over some delegates as Romney and Thompson drop out of the race.
Ron Paul will make his last stand in NH. This is the only state where he would have had a chance to come out on top, with the support of the Independent voters. However, a 4th place finish will leave his campaign with no momentum... plenty of cash, but no momentum. I doubt that he runs as a Libertarian, but if he did, this could put the Libertarian party on the map, giving the Green party a run for it's money as the only viable third party. This would be optimal if Bloomberg also ran as an independent. We would see a four way race, where the Democrats are hit by the Independent Bloomberg, and the Independents are hit by the Libertarians, and the Republicans are hit by losing Independent voters to some degree... It would make it the most interesting election in recent history!
On the democratic side... if Obama pulls off another upset, as I predict, the Clinton campaign will be finished. Edwards will surge into first or second as Clinton's numbers plummet. The nomination will likely go to Edwards or Obama (in that order) after Super Tuesday clears Clinton off into a third place shocker. She will likely drop out and endorse Obama, but her voters will be split between Edwards and Obama... then it is a delegate war for who can cross the threshold first.
*Note, these predictions are subject to change assuming I am completely wrong and NH goes a totally different way.
But what about taking a look at New Hampshire? How is tomorrow going to play out? The debates showed that there are four candidates in this race nationally: McCain, Huckabee, Rudy, and Romney. Thompson will likely not register in these polls, and may hold out for South Carolina... but after an embarrassing finish there, he will withdraw.
I call NH this way for the Republicans:
McCain: 37%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 10%
Rudy: 9%
Thompson: 1%
NH Dems:
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 24%
Richardson: 6%
Kucinich: 5%
On the Republican side, the poor 2nd place showing will be a second blow to the already critically wounded (post Iowa) Romney Campaign. After a 2nd place finish in NH, Michigan wont much matter, and there are no other states where Romney is polling in first besides Utah (and perhaps MA, but I don't know... the last poll was from April of 2007).
Fred Thompson is not expecting anything out of NH, and only showed up in the state for the debates, then it was off to SC where he is facing a 2:1 deficit to Mike Huckabee, who leads the state. After a fourth place finish (to Huckabee, McCain, and Mitt or Rudy)... perhaps a 3rd place finish if Mitt and Rudy continue to slip, Fred will give a speech along the lines of: "Well... we gave it a good run... but it looks like it wasn't meant to be... so I will be withdrawing my campaign from the race, and endorsing John McCain"
John McCain will get a huge boost from an overwhelming win in NH. This boost will likely propel him to a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Michigan, and make him a contender (likely finishing 2nd) in SC. This will give him some momentum going into Super Tuesday. I say SOME because he will not do well in Florida, so there will be one loss just days before Super Tuesday.
Mike Huckabee's convincing 3rd place finish will reignite the huckaboom, and add to his momentum from Iowa. He will likely go on to win in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida... giving him the big Mo' heading into Super Tuesday. This is going to be a Huckabee McCain race to the finish.
Rudy's gamble of waiting for Super Tuesday did not pay off. He will have no momentum going into Florida, and likely finish second to Huckabee. This blow will lead to a lackluster performance on Super Tuesday. Rudy will likely hold out for the National Convention, hoping to win over some delegates as Romney and Thompson drop out of the race.
Ron Paul will make his last stand in NH. This is the only state where he would have had a chance to come out on top, with the support of the Independent voters. However, a 4th place finish will leave his campaign with no momentum... plenty of cash, but no momentum. I doubt that he runs as a Libertarian, but if he did, this could put the Libertarian party on the map, giving the Green party a run for it's money as the only viable third party. This would be optimal if Bloomberg also ran as an independent. We would see a four way race, where the Democrats are hit by the Independent Bloomberg, and the Independents are hit by the Libertarians, and the Republicans are hit by losing Independent voters to some degree... It would make it the most interesting election in recent history!
On the democratic side... if Obama pulls off another upset, as I predict, the Clinton campaign will be finished. Edwards will surge into first or second as Clinton's numbers plummet. The nomination will likely go to Edwards or Obama (in that order) after Super Tuesday clears Clinton off into a third place shocker. She will likely drop out and endorse Obama, but her voters will be split between Edwards and Obama... then it is a delegate war for who can cross the threshold first.
*Note, these predictions are subject to change assuming I am completely wrong and NH goes a totally different way.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Round One: Iowa Caucus, Thompson to Drop Bid, Huckabee Expected to Win Big
The day has finally arrived... January 3rd, 2008. The Iowa Caucus. Perhaps the biggest day in the 2008 Presidential elections since the Straw Poll in Ames 5 long months ago.
Those of us who have been living and breathing this stuff since before then are more than ecstatic! Oh... if only I could take a peak at the headlines of tomorrow! The anticipation is killing me more in this one day than in all days prior!
What is more, even Mitt Romney, the multi-million dollar man, has predicted that he will lose to Huckabee tonight. One thing that we can all agree on is that it has been a tough race, but the political oddity of our time is that a dirt-road candidate with no money or organization has seemingly unseated the established and well funded candidate. If things play out this way tonight, it will be, perhaps, one of the greatest political feats of our time!
But the trouble continues after the Iowa Caucus. Fred Thompson's campaign has made it clear that if Thompson does not finish in the top 2 or 3, Fred Thompson will drop the race. Talk about taking the first exit off the expressway! This guy never really wanted to run in the first place, so this is an easy out. I commend him on inspiring his base! And even though Thompson is said to endorse John McCain when he drops the race, I doubt that all of those votes will actually go to McCain. In fact, 2nd choice for a lot of Fred Thompson voters are spread between Huckabee, McCain, and Romney... so it will be interesting to see how those votes are distributed in NH. What is more interesting is how an announcement like this will influence voters in Iowa on the day of the caucus. Perhaps the Iowa Fred-Heads will throw their 1st choice vote to Huckabee or McCain in Iowa. This definitely shakes things up a bit on Caucus Day!
Depending on how this day turns out, all eyes will be on John McCain, and the endorsement he will receive from Fred Thompson. Will this push him to imminent victory in New Hampshire, despite the Independent vote, or does Thompson's poor support in that state even matter come the Primary? And will this move hurt or help Huckabee and Rudy?
It seems to me that Rudy's hold out for Super Tuesday was a poor tactic. He will have zero momentum going into Feb 5th. If Huckabee wins tonight, and McCain wins NH, Huckabee is sure to take Michigan from Romney, clean up in SC, and use the momentum to defeat Rudy in SC before Super Tuesday. McCain's numbers are close enough in Michigan and SC to give Huckabee a run for his money... but tonight will give momentum to next Tuesday... and after Next Tuesday, it could be a Huckabee / McCain race to the nomination (in either order).
On the Democratic side, If Edwards pulls the upset tonight, he could possibly use this momentum to sweep the states before Super Tuesday. If Clinton doesn't have the momentum on Super Tuesday, Edwards could win out the day. People are looking for a reason not to support Hillary, and just like Rudy's numbers fell with the first sign of hope in another candidate, so too will Clinton.
So the three candidates to watch tonight are Huckabee, McCain, and John Edwards.
Those of us who have been living and breathing this stuff since before then are more than ecstatic! Oh... if only I could take a peak at the headlines of tomorrow! The anticipation is killing me more in this one day than in all days prior!
What is more, even Mitt Romney, the multi-million dollar man, has predicted that he will lose to Huckabee tonight. One thing that we can all agree on is that it has been a tough race, but the political oddity of our time is that a dirt-road candidate with no money or organization has seemingly unseated the established and well funded candidate. If things play out this way tonight, it will be, perhaps, one of the greatest political feats of our time!
But the trouble continues after the Iowa Caucus. Fred Thompson's campaign has made it clear that if Thompson does not finish in the top 2 or 3, Fred Thompson will drop the race. Talk about taking the first exit off the expressway! This guy never really wanted to run in the first place, so this is an easy out. I commend him on inspiring his base! And even though Thompson is said to endorse John McCain when he drops the race, I doubt that all of those votes will actually go to McCain. In fact, 2nd choice for a lot of Fred Thompson voters are spread between Huckabee, McCain, and Romney... so it will be interesting to see how those votes are distributed in NH. What is more interesting is how an announcement like this will influence voters in Iowa on the day of the caucus. Perhaps the Iowa Fred-Heads will throw their 1st choice vote to Huckabee or McCain in Iowa. This definitely shakes things up a bit on Caucus Day!
Depending on how this day turns out, all eyes will be on John McCain, and the endorsement he will receive from Fred Thompson. Will this push him to imminent victory in New Hampshire, despite the Independent vote, or does Thompson's poor support in that state even matter come the Primary? And will this move hurt or help Huckabee and Rudy?
It seems to me that Rudy's hold out for Super Tuesday was a poor tactic. He will have zero momentum going into Feb 5th. If Huckabee wins tonight, and McCain wins NH, Huckabee is sure to take Michigan from Romney, clean up in SC, and use the momentum to defeat Rudy in SC before Super Tuesday. McCain's numbers are close enough in Michigan and SC to give Huckabee a run for his money... but tonight will give momentum to next Tuesday... and after Next Tuesday, it could be a Huckabee / McCain race to the nomination (in either order).
On the Democratic side, If Edwards pulls the upset tonight, he could possibly use this momentum to sweep the states before Super Tuesday. If Clinton doesn't have the momentum on Super Tuesday, Edwards could win out the day. People are looking for a reason not to support Hillary, and just like Rudy's numbers fell with the first sign of hope in another candidate, so too will Clinton.
So the three candidates to watch tonight are Huckabee, McCain, and John Edwards.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Comments Make the Blogging World Go 'Round
Back from vacation, and blogging again! I hope that everyone is well rested from New Years, and ready for the election season to begin!
Surprisingly, I have had no comments on my previous post, relating to how you all think the election cycle will go!?!?
Are there really no opinions out there?
Perhaps a comment from a Ron Pauler who knows something about a potential for Paulers to flood the Iowa Caucuses, giving Paul a surprising top three finish.
Perhaps Fred Thompson bows out after a poor showing in Iowa?
Who hangs on until Super Tuesday, and how do you all see that super election going?
I would love to hear some analysis, or just plain guesses, as to how you all think this month will play out!
Don't be shy! Comments make the blogging world go 'round!
Surprisingly, I have had no comments on my previous post, relating to how you all think the election cycle will go!?!?
Are there really no opinions out there?
Perhaps a comment from a Ron Pauler who knows something about a potential for Paulers to flood the Iowa Caucuses, giving Paul a surprising top three finish.
Perhaps Fred Thompson bows out after a poor showing in Iowa?
Who hangs on until Super Tuesday, and how do you all see that super election going?
I would love to hear some analysis, or just plain guesses, as to how you all think this month will play out!
Don't be shy! Comments make the blogging world go 'round!
Thursday, December 27, 2007
HOPE for a New Year
Where rational thought ceases, and New Year's Resolutions begin... that is where we find ourselves in this blog.
I first have to give a very major acknowledgement to my Best Friend, Curtis Brower, who's resolution last year was to give up tobacco, alcohol, and fast-food for a year. He is just days away from successfully following through on his resolution... and is a prime example of the importance of taking charge of the self, demanding results, and the control and commitment it takes to follow through with personal responsibility of the highest order!
Now, in the same spirit of reaching for success on a personal level, my hope for the new year is that the United States take a good look at the pure evil that exists in the world around us, as well as the corruption that drives us towards evil and hatred right here in the United States.
It is my hope that we can enter this season of political ideals, and select the candidate that can best heal the divided nation in which we live.
It is my hope that we can get past semantics, and that politicians can learn to tell the truth...
It is my hope that this New Year can deliver a message of hope, not by force, but by example, that the people of the world will want to take action on their own, and demand a better life... one in which rockets are not lobbed into schools, and markets are not bombed by cowards... demand a life where my child can grow in peace next to your child, and we needn't fear for their basic survival... rather we only dream of their endless potential.
World peace is an unrealistic goal, as long as there are those willing to kill, willing to defy society, willing to follow fools and jesters in the name of religion.
The Declaration of Independence stated that there are basic rights endowed by the Divine Creator, including Life, Liberty, and Pursuit of Happiness.
World Peace begins with the respect for life... for your own, for that of your children, and most importantly, that of your neighbor. Without the respect for life, the cycle of violence will only continue. The respect for life is the first step, the second is the respect for Liberty. That means how I, or your neighbor, choose to live that life. As long as we do not encroach on your free life, we shall be left to live our lives as we so please. Of course we all need to agree on how to ensure this freedom... and how we do so is that Pursuit of Happiness. We get to debate and discuss how we want to live, how we want to measure success, and how we can all achieve success. But this discussion can never happen in the presence of Tyranny. Happiness needs freedom to thrive, freedom needs a respect for life.
So as we choose our new leader, we need to ensure that we are choosing a leader based on the ability to reason and understand the building blocks for freedom... Not a continuation of the "freedom by force" mentality. It doesn't work... never has, never will. The people of the world cannot see the freedom if it is given to them... they must work and fight for it on their own.
So look for a candidate strong enough to see the right answer, and make the right choices, even though he is lambasted by his own party. Look for the leader who understands that to succeed, we must first stand united. Look for the man who can bring Hope back to the highest office.
Happiness to you and yours in this New Year!
I first have to give a very major acknowledgement to my Best Friend, Curtis Brower, who's resolution last year was to give up tobacco, alcohol, and fast-food for a year. He is just days away from successfully following through on his resolution... and is a prime example of the importance of taking charge of the self, demanding results, and the control and commitment it takes to follow through with personal responsibility of the highest order!
Now, in the same spirit of reaching for success on a personal level, my hope for the new year is that the United States take a good look at the pure evil that exists in the world around us, as well as the corruption that drives us towards evil and hatred right here in the United States.
It is my hope that we can enter this season of political ideals, and select the candidate that can best heal the divided nation in which we live.
It is my hope that we can get past semantics, and that politicians can learn to tell the truth...
It is my hope that this New Year can deliver a message of hope, not by force, but by example, that the people of the world will want to take action on their own, and demand a better life... one in which rockets are not lobbed into schools, and markets are not bombed by cowards... demand a life where my child can grow in peace next to your child, and we needn't fear for their basic survival... rather we only dream of their endless potential.
World peace is an unrealistic goal, as long as there are those willing to kill, willing to defy society, willing to follow fools and jesters in the name of religion.
The Declaration of Independence stated that there are basic rights endowed by the Divine Creator, including Life, Liberty, and Pursuit of Happiness.
World Peace begins with the respect for life... for your own, for that of your children, and most importantly, that of your neighbor. Without the respect for life, the cycle of violence will only continue. The respect for life is the first step, the second is the respect for Liberty. That means how I, or your neighbor, choose to live that life. As long as we do not encroach on your free life, we shall be left to live our lives as we so please. Of course we all need to agree on how to ensure this freedom... and how we do so is that Pursuit of Happiness. We get to debate and discuss how we want to live, how we want to measure success, and how we can all achieve success. But this discussion can never happen in the presence of Tyranny. Happiness needs freedom to thrive, freedom needs a respect for life.
So as we choose our new leader, we need to ensure that we are choosing a leader based on the ability to reason and understand the building blocks for freedom... Not a continuation of the "freedom by force" mentality. It doesn't work... never has, never will. The people of the world cannot see the freedom if it is given to them... they must work and fight for it on their own.
So look for a candidate strong enough to see the right answer, and make the right choices, even though he is lambasted by his own party. Look for the leader who understands that to succeed, we must first stand united. Look for the man who can bring Hope back to the highest office.
Happiness to you and yours in this New Year!
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Doing the Right Thing - Being Human
Politics is a battlefield... That goes without saying. It is the most vicious game that one can participate in. There seem to be little rules, no clear fouls, and the out-of-bounds seems non-existent.
So why do we do it... why do we blog on political issues? Why do we run for office, or why are we involved in political parties?
Each and every person can provide a very different answer. Some seek glory, some seek social change, some seek to simply protect the constitution. There are some who see it as their civic duty, some who see it as a career.
No matter what your motivation, there seems to be an aspect that has gone missing... that is the human element.
It is widely understood that we (the masses) are no longer considered citizens, rather consumers. We are no longer concerned citizens, we are poll results. We are seen as mindless drones in need of political ads to sway us, or commentating to change our vote.
Wake up, readers... we are not mindless drones, and we cannot allow ourselves to be 'led out to pasture' by media, political ads, etc. We must demand that our politicians NOT consider politics as "business as usual"... we must demand the human element!
Take the time, as a political leader, to reach out to me as a human being... I am not talking about making a political ad about living with your mother in an attempt to SEEM more human, I am talking about reaching out in a different way... a way that is off the beaten path of politics... engage the people on a personal level...
Treating every "voter" as a human being... what a concept.
Reaching out to us means showing your soft underbelly... it is hard as a politician... but it is real. And that is what the people crave... real change, real ideas, real emotion, real heart, and real people... people from their own ranks... A candidate with something that the others are missing... the human element.
So why do we do it... why do we blog on political issues? Why do we run for office, or why are we involved in political parties?
Each and every person can provide a very different answer. Some seek glory, some seek social change, some seek to simply protect the constitution. There are some who see it as their civic duty, some who see it as a career.
No matter what your motivation, there seems to be an aspect that has gone missing... that is the human element.
It is widely understood that we (the masses) are no longer considered citizens, rather consumers. We are no longer concerned citizens, we are poll results. We are seen as mindless drones in need of political ads to sway us, or commentating to change our vote.
Wake up, readers... we are not mindless drones, and we cannot allow ourselves to be 'led out to pasture' by media, political ads, etc. We must demand that our politicians NOT consider politics as "business as usual"... we must demand the human element!
Take the time, as a political leader, to reach out to me as a human being... I am not talking about making a political ad about living with your mother in an attempt to SEEM more human, I am talking about reaching out in a different way... a way that is off the beaten path of politics... engage the people on a personal level...
Treating every "voter" as a human being... what a concept.
Reaching out to us means showing your soft underbelly... it is hard as a politician... but it is real. And that is what the people crave... real change, real ideas, real emotion, real heart, and real people... people from their own ranks... A candidate with something that the others are missing... the human element.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Oh, Christmas Feud... and the effects of Negative Campaigning
As I have said in previous posts, there is little time to make big gains in Iowa and the other early states. The front-loading of the process has made Christmas time the prime time to campaign... however, it is the one time of the year that the Iowans are not interested in campaigns... they have made up their minds... or they just want to be left alone for the time being.
So why has the campaign of Romney released two new ads attacking Huckabee, to be aired during the campaigning cease-fire? And how does that make the people of Iowa view him?
Mike Huckabee also released an ad to be aired in the early states over the Christmas cease-fire. How might this ad make voters view him?
When it comes down to it, I have to ask myself which candidate is acting more presidential, taking the higher road, and trying to better define himself instead of running negative ads against someone else. When it comes down to judgement, who is making the better choice? Think of what Christmas means to you, and then imagine sitting down to watch a re-run of "The Christmas Story" with your family... Then both of these ads pop up during a commercial break... which one do you want to share with your family? Which one makes you listen, and say, "Oh... thanks for the Christmas message".
And now, the effects of Negative Campaigning... I will keep this short...
For starters, There has been one candidate who has consistently used negative advertising in their campaign. I am not going to name names, I will let you figure that out. So what does that tell you about the candidate? Perhaps it implies that their record or message is not strong enough to support itself, so they must try to tear down the other campaigns.
But what else does it do? It puts hate into the heart of that candidates supporters. They begin attacking, sometimes viciously, the other candidates. It invokes negative emotions, and the people are left to act on these sometimes strong emotions... It destroys the base support, and distracts from the candidates ability to distinguish themselves in a positive light.
It also should be noted that this is the Primary season... this is not the time to be filling the hearts of the party's base with hate and anger in an attempt to build up one candidate over another. Once the primary season is over, and the negative candidate has lost (for example), their supporters are so angry at the other candidates that they refuse to be part of the party, and they refuse to vote, refuse to support the party and vote third party, or worse: they support the opposing party just out of spite.
Negative campaigning is a poison, and we have a personal responsibility to insist that candidates maintain campaigns that stick to the moral high ground. We don't need politics as usual... we complain about it year after year. So do something about it, and demand that the candidates STOP negative ads, stop negative campaigns, and run on their merits and records.
What are your thoughts?
So why has the campaign of Romney released two new ads attacking Huckabee, to be aired during the campaigning cease-fire? And how does that make the people of Iowa view him?
Mike Huckabee also released an ad to be aired in the early states over the Christmas cease-fire. How might this ad make voters view him?
When it comes down to it, I have to ask myself which candidate is acting more presidential, taking the higher road, and trying to better define himself instead of running negative ads against someone else. When it comes down to judgement, who is making the better choice? Think of what Christmas means to you, and then imagine sitting down to watch a re-run of "The Christmas Story" with your family... Then both of these ads pop up during a commercial break... which one do you want to share with your family? Which one makes you listen, and say, "Oh... thanks for the Christmas message".
And now, the effects of Negative Campaigning... I will keep this short...
For starters, There has been one candidate who has consistently used negative advertising in their campaign. I am not going to name names, I will let you figure that out. So what does that tell you about the candidate? Perhaps it implies that their record or message is not strong enough to support itself, so they must try to tear down the other campaigns.
But what else does it do? It puts hate into the heart of that candidates supporters. They begin attacking, sometimes viciously, the other candidates. It invokes negative emotions, and the people are left to act on these sometimes strong emotions... It destroys the base support, and distracts from the candidates ability to distinguish themselves in a positive light.
It also should be noted that this is the Primary season... this is not the time to be filling the hearts of the party's base with hate and anger in an attempt to build up one candidate over another. Once the primary season is over, and the negative candidate has lost (for example), their supporters are so angry at the other candidates that they refuse to be part of the party, and they refuse to vote, refuse to support the party and vote third party, or worse: they support the opposing party just out of spite.
Negative campaigning is a poison, and we have a personal responsibility to insist that candidates maintain campaigns that stick to the moral high ground. We don't need politics as usual... we complain about it year after year. So do something about it, and demand that the candidates STOP negative ads, stop negative campaigns, and run on their merits and records.
What are your thoughts?
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Eleventh Commandment: Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican
Every Republican is aware (or should be aware) of the 11th Commandment, laid out by Reagan in1966 while he was running for Governor of the People's Republic of California (sic). The commandment was that no Republican should speak ill of another Republican in campaigns.So when does negative campaigning begin to creep into the 11th Commandment realm?
Is stating a contenders record and leaving it for the public to decide breaking the 11th? If so, look at Fred Thompson's CNN/YouTube ad and response during the CNN/YouTube debate (his was the only negative attack ad)
Is out-of-context quoting furthering the creep towards the 11th?
Or does negative campaign ad creation fit the mold?
The answer, as I see it, is that every candidate should be able to face their previous statements and stances. If they ran on an issue, or it is something that they fundamentally believe, then it is appropriate to discuss... because you KNOW the Democrats are going to use it!
I think that the Romney campaign was close during the spats against Rudy... and now the spats against Huckabee... Though negative, I am not willing to say that the 11th has been broken. Fred Thompson has also been negative in his campaigning, but has not yet broken the 11th... But what I would warn both campaigns against is maintaining the negative... it is beneath them both.
Though I understand the importance of drawing differences between each candidate, and that is the only way they are going to get the nomination, negativity is a turn off to the voters. There has to be a better way... like highlighting your strengths, rather than highlighting your contenders perceived weaknesses.
So who would I say is guilty of breaking the 11th? Though he is not in the campaign, I would say that Hugh Hewitt has done so... he is such a huge Romney supporter that Romney doesn't have to say ill things about his contenders... Hugh will do it for him.
Thoughts?
Monday, December 10, 2007
Is Huckabee surge REALLY a Problem for Conservatives?
As I was reading through my blogroll, I came across an article discussing the problems with a Huckabee nod from the GOP. As a former pro-Huckabee blogger (now officially neutral due to circumstances), I still like discussing the viability of candidates, and enjoy discussing such with fellow bloggers. Though our friends make good points about Mike's lack of foreign policy, and the troubles he will face as his dirty laundry is finally aired nationally, I wonder if there is a blind-rage factor, as seen by Hugh Hewitt. Now, to be fair, the blogger does state that they do not officially have a horse in the race, but I wonder who their favorite is... it is definitely NOT Mike Huckabee.I decided to post my response to his article below. Because I cannot officially support or endorse any candidate, I like to take a step back and think of the issue not in a pro/anti candidate light, but rather an electability light... and I challenge all my readers to do the same. I have made a couple points about it below.
(let me start by stating that on-the-record I am unable to support or endorse any candidate before the primary)
When selecting a president, and a presidential candidate, there are a few things to consider. National appeal is surely one, but Electoral appeal is more important in winning. Prior races and prior opponents surely matter. And of course, the ability to serve all citizens.
The biggest issue I have with President Bush is that he became so wrapped up in his own agenda that he isolated a good number of citizens (or allowed the left to isolate themselves), thus furthering the political divide. When I look at a candidate, I look at a candidate that has a wide base appeal, because this country needs a leader who can bring the nation together and heal the political divide. Fred Thompson (to mention someone directly) has come out and all but stated that he is going to continue the butt-kicking of the democrats (and independents, I presume). He is a continuation of the "Cowboy Republican" image that has further isolated the GOP from the rest of the nation. National appeal wins elections... and we need a candidate that can do more than 49.5% of the vote... else we run the risk of a deeper political divide.
Regarding Electoral appeal... Looking at the 2004 electoral map, one must consider which candidates are capable of holding ALL the Bush states. A candidate like Rudy, where many have voiced SOCON concerns, may cause a series of undervotes or 3rd party votes, thus tipping the tables and handing over entire states to the Democratic contender (most likely Clinton). The base, as a whole, is more concerned with SOCON issues than FICON issues... So the base is more likely to get out and vote on behalf of a SOCON, especially against Clinton... This puts Rudy and Mitt in question... and McCain and Huckabee if you consider past stances on immigration a part of the SOCON agenda.
The ability to serve all, as I hinted at above, is a HUGE factor. You specifically mentioned Huckabee above, so I will here as well. Mike Huckabee's recent endorsement of the Teacher's union in NH and the Machinist Union in Florida are not signs of liberalism, but rather as the ONLY Republican candidate who went out to speak to them! He is reaching out to all citizens, where others are ignoring those votes as they traditionally go to Democrats. I already discussed Thompson's view of anyone other than a Republican... and I don't see the other candidate's ability to reach out, or their efforts at all... especially in this campaign.
And past races are very important. Rudy was losing to the Clinton machine in his NY bid for the Senate. NY is a tough state for a GOP contender, but losing to a carpet-bagger? This doesn't bode well... as well, there was a LOT of dirt that the Clinton's had that they never got to use on him... so he will be faced with a tough battle, especially when so many Republicans have all but sworn not to support him even if he gets the nomination. Mitt went up against the Kennedy machine, which might as well have been the Clinton machine, and lost in MA. To win, he had to take even more liberal stances, all of which he has now changed as he is seeking a higher office. Remember Kerry in 2004... we will see the exact same thing by the Clinton's against Mitt... even if it is not true, the perception is there, and the masses will hear about it. Huckabee has faced the Clinton machine time and again in Arkansas, and the people chose him over the Clintons. Of course, the same old mud is going to be news to the rest of America, but I can guarantee that Huckabee, having been faced with all the same mud before, has canned responses to all of it.
I think that Huckabee is capable of taking on the Clintons and winning...Electorally, and nationally... It is pitting a uniter against a polarizing figure... and we will come out on top. Electorally, what states do you see switching their 2004 votes in favor of Clinton over Huckabee? I cannot think of one!
Now... If Clinton happens to NOT get the nomination... well, we will surely have a WHOLE NEW discussion about electoral strategy! An Obama or Edwards nomination on the left will change things drastically...
The key will be if Huckabee can maintain his high numbers in the face of all the old mud coming out for the nation to see... if he can, and he can answer the questions, I do not see why you suggest he is not viable. Is he not as established a politician as all the rest?
One additional comment about Huck - notice that his support is not from the Independents (Paul) or the center-left Republicans (Rudy). His support is the SOCON base. The same base that Fred had, and squandered... So I don't think that the Clinton "positive" comments effect the SOCON vote.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
An Eye on Iowa: Huckabee leads Romney 28-25%
A Major shake-up in the GOP field is underway... Mitt Romney, who has been the clear favorite in Iowa since the beginning of the summer, has now fallen to second place based on the latest Rasmussen poll in that state.
This clearly spells trouble for Mitt Romney's campaign! Mitt has spent over $10 Million in the early voting states on advertisement, where Huckabee has spent fractions of that. And furthermore, this is an embarassing blow to Romney's national challenge to GOP front-runner Rudy Giuliani. This surely takes the pressure of of the Rudy campaing from Romney, and will likely focus some of Romney's mud at the Huckabee campaign. Romney has already been taking stabs at Mike Huckabee over his fiscal record while Governor of Arkansas... however, Mike Huckabee seems to have a friend in Dick Morris, who is helping Mike maintain his Teflon Sports Coat.
One deeper issue is that the Super Tuesday states still show Rudy as the clear leader... but the surprising second place finisher in the most recent Rasmussen poll is Mike Huckabee.
So as the Primary / Caucus season fast approaches, there are some questions that are beginning to rise:
Things just officially got exciting in the GOP field! Let's see if it gets mention in the CNN / YouTube debates tonight!
Iowa Caucus
Mike Huckabee - 28%
Mitt Romney - 25%
Rudy Giuliani - 12%
Fred Thompson - 11%
Ron Paul - 5%
John McCain - 4%
Tom Tancredo - 4%
Duncan Hunter - 1%
This clearly spells trouble for Mitt Romney's campaign! Mitt has spent over $10 Million in the early voting states on advertisement, where Huckabee has spent fractions of that. And furthermore, this is an embarassing blow to Romney's national challenge to GOP front-runner Rudy Giuliani. This surely takes the pressure of of the Rudy campaing from Romney, and will likely focus some of Romney's mud at the Huckabee campaign. Romney has already been taking stabs at Mike Huckabee over his fiscal record while Governor of Arkansas... however, Mike Huckabee seems to have a friend in Dick Morris, who is helping Mike maintain his Teflon Sports Coat.
One deeper issue is that the Super Tuesday states still show Rudy as the clear leader... but the surprising second place finisher in the most recent Rasmussen poll is Mike Huckabee.
So as the Primary / Caucus season fast approaches, there are some questions that are beginning to rise:
- Has Romney burned out, despite his Hugh Hewitt endorsement and constant free press?
- Does Rudy have to fear Mike Huckabee more than Mitt, McCain, and Fred?
- If Mike Huckabee wins Iowa in January, does that put the final nail in Mitt Romney's coffin?
- What ever happened to Fred Thompson?
- Does this kind of polling spell a major shake-up for the GOP candidates?
- And, If Mike Huckabee beats Rudy for the nomination, can he win the General Election?
Things just officially got exciting in the GOP field! Let's see if it gets mention in the CNN / YouTube debates tonight!
Monday, November 26, 2007
Taxes, and tax code changes
With Mike Huckabee forcing the GOP contenders to no longer be considered "top tier", rather "top-five" contenders, it is also bring more discussion about the Fair Tax. Now, I must admit that I am a bit of a fan of the Fair Tax, which is why it upsets me when I hear folks like Romney insist time and again that the Fair Tax would mean a 33% national sales tax, and how it would hurt the retired folks who no longer pay income taxes... Let's stop the political dribble, and discuss real tax reform.For starters, the Fair Tax will require no more than a 22% National Sales tax. This will be stand alone, no income tax at a national level. The lower rates will still fund the federal government for a few simple reasons:
- Elimination of defunct government programs/departments/programs
- The hidden taxes currently built into the current price system will go away - the prices will have to drop as consumers will be outraged to see a corporate profit increase of unreasonable amounts
- We no longer will have to subsidise those failing to pay income tax. This is a system where more people will be paying into it, so the rates are lower with the same results
The tax code is currently so complicated, with loopholes, tax breaks, multiple taxes... for instance, if you overpay your taxes and your tax write-offs exceed $10,000, the money that was taxed once and then returned to you is taxed a second time the following year as income. There is a tax on savings, tax on dying, even a tax on selling your home too soon... Every aspect of our current tax code suggests that the government wants to penalize growth and innovation.
Imagine a tax system that would either eliminate the entire tax system, levying a one-time tax of 20-30% on income, or a tax system that has a 0% income tax and 22% sales tax. No loopholes, no tricks, no special deductions. Everyone pays tax one time on the same dollar.
The CATO institute suggest a flat income tax, eliminating all other tax loopholes. They suggest a maximum tax rate of 20% for maximum economic advantage. In time, this tax rate will provide economic growth rates upwards of 7-10%. Similar results would be seen with a Fair Tax, but the Fair tax has one HUGE obstacle: the Constitution.
During the era of the new deal, there was a tricky little amendment to the constitution that allowed the federal government to collect an income tax. The Fair Tax will never succeed unless we have a constitutional amendment to repeal the federal income tax, and replace it with a sales tax... furthermore, it would be almost necessary to constitutionally ban a federal income tax to ensure that the government does not hit us with BOTH! This is the reason that the CATO institute has chosen not to endorse the Fair Tax... the means to achieve the intended purpose are too great.
So as we move forward with the Presidential nomination process, we need to listen very closely to those with the biggest ideas on taxes. Senators Obama and Clinton have promised to increase tax rates to those of the 1990's... That is upwards of 40% plus multiple taxes. The only effect of taxes this high are stifled economic growth, higher unemployment rates, and lower disposable income in the hands of the citizens (and thus a lower quality of life).
Who is your candidate of choice when it comes to taxes? How will they best spend my money? And how will they ensure that my money stays in my pockets, not their coffers?
Monday, November 19, 2007
GOP Presidential Race - The Battle for 2nd Place
The big story out of the Republican field of candidates (that being the top 5 - Sorry Paul supporters) is not that Rudy has been able to maintain a 10 point lead over the rest nationally, but rather that all of the other contenders seem to be facing a new limit... 15%. Thompson, Huckabee, McCain, and Romney seem to be all settling into a tie for second place in the national polls, and they all seem to be closing in on the 15% mark... some from above (Thompson) and some from below (Huckabee).
The interesting trend is that Fred Thompson seems to be taking a nose dive in the national polls, and looking at state polls, he isn't doing much better. His slow start, slow motion, and perceived (rightfully IMHO) laziness has all but ended his bid for the White House.
Rudy support seems fairly consistent at 25%, and barring any huge gaffe he will not fall, but I don't see him making any gains either.
McCain, who was an early contender in this race as the alternative to "Moderate Rudy", is showing some stabilization at 15% from his falling support. His stunning debate performance in early September saved his campaign from an embarrassing plummet of support, but I do not see him gaining much more traction as the moderate republican. Rudy has that field pretty much locked up nationally.
The big battle is going to be fought between two campaigns vying for the Conservative vote: Romney and Huckabee. Romney has the money, Huckabee the message. Huckabee seems to have a lot of national momentum, where Romney seems to be stuck in the 12% - 15% for over a month now. Romney is spending millions on ads in the early states, and it is paying off... but fast approaching in the early states is Governor Huckabee, who seems to be making huge strides without spending on ads. One has to wonder what effect Huckabee's upcoming ads in Iowa and N.H. will have on getting his message to more voters. But one also has to ask if Huckabee can finish strong in these early states and make a legitimate national campaign overnight.
As we move closer to the Iowa Caucus, I expect to see Romney and Huckabee battling it out for 2nd place in the national polls... Once Iowa comes and goes, the winner (projected tie between these two in that state), perhaps the 18% undecided GOP voter will choose a camp to support, and we will see a new field of front runners.
Of course there are the what-if's. What if Romney finishes 2nd in Iowa to Huckabee? Does he withdraw from the race? What if Thompson finishes in the ranks with Ron Paul in Iowa, NH, and SC? Does he give up his bid entirely? And can Rudy keep his high numbers with poor showings in the early voting states?
Look for any candidate to pick up the momentum and surge above the 15% mark (and maintain). Especially Romney or Huckabee. If either one can break and maintain the momentum over the 15% mark, you may see the next GOP candidate (and president).
Monday, November 12, 2007
Using US freedom to take down the US?
The World Net Daily released an article on Saturday, outing a Washington D.C. Imam who has been openly discussing his plan to destroy the US government and replace it with the Islamic State of North America by the year 2050.
Imagine that. They or their parents/grandparents immigrate to this country... the land free of oppression, open to all who want to live a life in the pursuit of whatever makes you happy. And once they get here, they decide that they don't approve of how everyone else is living, and plan to change it into an oppressive land, just like the one they fled.
What I don't understand about Muslims is why do you think that your religion trumps any other? What has your religion done to your society? The Middle East was the cradle of civilization, but has since become a cesspool of violence and non-advancement. The cause? Islam!
Now you see that the world has begun doing something great for humanity! We are advancing science, technology, space travel, free enterprise, art, and other various forms of culture... and your only answer is to "Behead those who insult islam"... Your instinct is to destroy advancements, destroy progress...
And the audacity to openly share your plans to take over our free land...
That is exactly why I am a gun owner. This is the very reason that my children will be well trained in current firearm use. And this is the reason that you will have one hell of a fight on your hands.
Your Religion of Peace is nothing more than a plague on this great world. As with any plague, you can only survive if you spread... and as with any plague, it is up to those who do not wish to be infected to protect ourselves.
I, for one, will not live to see a day where Islam trumps the freedoms of the US. I will surely give my life to protect the US against all enemies, foreign and domestic, that would strive to destroy the greatest experiment in self-government and freedom that the world has ever known.
So I say to As-Sabiquin... bring it on you crazy sons-of-bitches! It will be my pleasure to make an example out of you!
*As a note to my readers, I apologize for the harsh words, but I have such trouble believing that this can be taking place in the US, and no-one is daring to stand up and speak out... well, let me be among the first!
Imagine that. They or their parents/grandparents immigrate to this country... the land free of oppression, open to all who want to live a life in the pursuit of whatever makes you happy. And once they get here, they decide that they don't approve of how everyone else is living, and plan to change it into an oppressive land, just like the one they fled.
What I don't understand about Muslims is why do you think that your religion trumps any other? What has your religion done to your society? The Middle East was the cradle of civilization, but has since become a cesspool of violence and non-advancement. The cause? Islam!
Now you see that the world has begun doing something great for humanity! We are advancing science, technology, space travel, free enterprise, art, and other various forms of culture... and your only answer is to "Behead those who insult islam"... Your instinct is to destroy advancements, destroy progress...
And the audacity to openly share your plans to take over our free land...
That is exactly why I am a gun owner. This is the very reason that my children will be well trained in current firearm use. And this is the reason that you will have one hell of a fight on your hands.
Your Religion of Peace is nothing more than a plague on this great world. As with any plague, you can only survive if you spread... and as with any plague, it is up to those who do not wish to be infected to protect ourselves.
I, for one, will not live to see a day where Islam trumps the freedoms of the US. I will surely give my life to protect the US against all enemies, foreign and domestic, that would strive to destroy the greatest experiment in self-government and freedom that the world has ever known.
So I say to As-Sabiquin... bring it on you crazy sons-of-bitches! It will be my pleasure to make an example out of you!
*As a note to my readers, I apologize for the harsh words, but I have such trouble believing that this can be taking place in the US, and no-one is daring to stand up and speak out... well, let me be among the first!
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