New Hampshire provided expected results for the Republicans (though Fox Pundits appeared shock that their golden boy lost), but the big upset was Clinton over Obama.
Here were my predictions and the actual results:
GOP:
McCain: 37%...... 37%
Romney: 28%.... 32%
Huckabee: 15%.. 11%
Paul: 10%............ 8%
Rudy: 9%............. 9%
Thompson: 1%.... 1%
Dems:
Obama: 39%....... 37%
Clinton: 26%....... 39%
Edwards: 24%.... 17%
Richardson: 6%.. 5%
Kucinich: 5%....... 1%
I was pretty on target for the GOP, there was a 4% vote swing in my prediction in Huckabee's favor that I took from Romney... looks like he took it back!
For the Dems, I was right on that the leader would get 39%... i just did not think that was going to be Hilalry. I suppose that the loss in Iowa motivated her base support to get out the vote!
The biggest losers of the NH primary: John Edwards and Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney spent upwards of $20 Million in 2 states, and has lost both of them. He is looking to a victory in Michigan to keep his campaign alive. The small amount of delegates he has picked up so far will be nothing come SC, Florida, and Super Tuesday... He has no momentum, and has been shown back-to-back defeats... It won't be too long before Ann Romney confiscates the checkbook and makes him drop out. Even with a Michigan win, his campaign is seriously in doubt... and he kissed his VP nod goodbye when he started attacking everyone to get on top. Poor form, old chap!
John Edwards' whooping in NH was a big shocker. After a strong showing in Iowa, John was picking up some momentum... Hillary took that out in one blow. The only way that John can look to beat Hilalry is to meet up with Obama and work out some sort of a coalition and VP nod... With both of them in the race, it looks like Hilalry is going to squeak out victory after victory... may have turned out to be a fluke, and with Edwards WAY behind in NH, Obama hanging on, you have to wonder how long Edwards stays in... the longer he does, the more likely that Hillary gets the nod.
What can we expect to see? On the side of the democrats, Obama's loss brings up questions of Hillary's inevitability once again... The pundits will say that Iowa was a fluke, and her support may begin to rise... the Clinton Machine is well funded and well oiled... She may have some fight left in her yet... This was a big night for her campaign... and likely ended John Edwards'.
The GOP will move on to Michigan, where Huckabee will likely beat out Romney. If Romney finishes second, he is finished. If Huckabee finishes second, he has SC and Florida to look forward to. A second place finish in Michigan for Huckabee would surely take the momentum away heading into SC, where he will be challenged by McCain. If McCain takes SC, he likely takes Florida, and will have all the momentum going into Super Tuesday, where he and Rudy will battle it out. There will be a three way tie in delegates between Rudy, McCain, and Huckabee after Super Tuesday, and the brokering begins... likely McCain and Huckabee join up and run on one ticket in 2008. However, if Huckabee takes Michigan and SC, Florida is his to lose, and he is clearly the front-runner going into Super Tuesday. He would likely lead with delegates after S.T. and we would go into brokering, where he will likely ask for McCain's endorsement and run on a Huckabee / McCain ticket. If McCain does not do well due to a SC loss, Huckabee may choose someone like Governor Sarah Palin as a running mate, and they will likely sweep into office in the general election.
Let's hear what happens in the next few days... there will be a dropped bid by Richardson, I am sure...
any thoughts?
Showing posts with label New Hampshire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Hampshire. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Monday, January 7, 2008
SCANDAL on Romney & FoxNews - Update NO
UPDATE: Turns out that this guy was there for voting trend. Though there seems to be some back story on this, I feel that it is unlikely that this entire room of voters would be undecided, and then ALL come out for Romney... Chalk it up to MSM paranoia, I suppose! This is me eating Crow! Thanks for the comments and information on this story!
After the Fox News Presidential Forum in NH yesterday, Frank Luntz's had a panel of undecided voters who were supposed to have been watching the debate and then provide some feedback.
I felt what we in the Quality Engineering world call the "pinch", the feeling you get when something doesn't seem right, when all the voters where undecided coming in, and 98% for Romney after the debate... that, with the harsh things they had to say about Huckabee's performance was more than enough for me to say... hmmm....
Behold... FoxNews has been caught Red Handed:
Turns out that there is a Paid Actor??? who appeared twice, in two different random groups of undecided voters... Both debates occured in NH, but the random group of undecided voters seems to have a little consistency with whom they pick... in fact, so consistent that they choose the same people... is this true?
What the heck are they doing!
After the Fox News Presidential Forum in NH yesterday, Frank Luntz's had a panel of undecided voters who were supposed to have been watching the debate and then provide some feedback.
I felt what we in the Quality Engineering world call the "pinch", the feeling you get when something doesn't seem right, when all the voters where undecided coming in, and 98% for Romney after the debate... that, with the harsh things they had to say about Huckabee's performance was more than enough for me to say... hmmm....
Behold... FoxNews has been caught Red Handed:
Turns out that there is a Paid Actor??? who appeared twice, in two different random groups of undecided voters... Both debates occured in NH, but the random group of undecided voters seems to have a little consistency with whom they pick... in fact, so consistent that they choose the same people... is this true?
What the heck are they doing!
Stress of Campaign getting to Clinton, Clinton chokes back tears
An interesting thing happened today... it seems that the Clinton machine is beginning to feel the pressure of the campaign.
Hillary Clinton, after a sit-down meet and greet with voters in NH, was asked a question about maintaining her campaign despite losing steam to Obama. To which she replied that some people think that elections are just games, that they support whomever is appearing on top... and what shocked everyone, including her campaign, was that she said it while choking back tears.
Is this a calculated move on the eve of the NH vote... another effort to attempt to appear more human, and possibly feminine fragile? Or is this a sign that Hillary's lack of actual leadership experience is showing through as the stress of campaigning is starting to get to her?
Time will tell... and with the deluge of polling done in NH over the past days, being reported today, it is easy to see why she is in tears... Obama continues to pull ahead... which could spell the beginning of the end... or at least it puts a question mark on the Clinton Inevitability.
Hillary Clinton, after a sit-down meet and greet with voters in NH, was asked a question about maintaining her campaign despite losing steam to Obama. To which she replied that some people think that elections are just games, that they support whomever is appearing on top... and what shocked everyone, including her campaign, was that she said it while choking back tears.
Is this a calculated move on the eve of the NH vote... another effort to attempt to appear more human, and possibly feminine fragile? Or is this a sign that Hillary's lack of actual leadership experience is showing through as the stress of campaigning is starting to get to her?
Time will tell... and with the deluge of polling done in NH over the past days, being reported today, it is easy to see why she is in tears... Obama continues to pull ahead... which could spell the beginning of the end... or at least it puts a question mark on the Clinton Inevitability.
Predictions for the NH Primary
Real Clear Politics is showing a new trend after the Iowa Caucus, and in anticipation of the New Hampshire Caucus: Mike Huckabee and John McCain are surging nationally, while Rudy Giuliani (who is seeing his lowest numbers of the race) and Mitt Romney are free-falling. In fact, the latest polls show a three way tie for first: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee... but unfortunately for Rudy, his numbers are falling and it will not be too long before his campaign is through... At this rate, I doubt that he will make it to Super Tuesday in one piece... so it looks like his "Go Big or Go Home" approach to delegates (focusing only on the Super Tuesday states) has failed... or is in the midst of failing.
But what about taking a look at New Hampshire? How is tomorrow going to play out? The debates showed that there are four candidates in this race nationally: McCain, Huckabee, Rudy, and Romney. Thompson will likely not register in these polls, and may hold out for South Carolina... but after an embarrassing finish there, he will withdraw.
I call NH this way for the Republicans:
McCain: 37%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 10%
Rudy: 9%
Thompson: 1%
NH Dems:
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 24%
Richardson: 6%
Kucinich: 5%
On the Republican side, the poor 2nd place showing will be a second blow to the already critically wounded (post Iowa) Romney Campaign. After a 2nd place finish in NH, Michigan wont much matter, and there are no other states where Romney is polling in first besides Utah (and perhaps MA, but I don't know... the last poll was from April of 2007).
Fred Thompson is not expecting anything out of NH, and only showed up in the state for the debates, then it was off to SC where he is facing a 2:1 deficit to Mike Huckabee, who leads the state. After a fourth place finish (to Huckabee, McCain, and Mitt or Rudy)... perhaps a 3rd place finish if Mitt and Rudy continue to slip, Fred will give a speech along the lines of: "Well... we gave it a good run... but it looks like it wasn't meant to be... so I will be withdrawing my campaign from the race, and endorsing John McCain"
John McCain will get a huge boost from an overwhelming win in NH. This boost will likely propel him to a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Michigan, and make him a contender (likely finishing 2nd) in SC. This will give him some momentum going into Super Tuesday. I say SOME because he will not do well in Florida, so there will be one loss just days before Super Tuesday.
Mike Huckabee's convincing 3rd place finish will reignite the huckaboom, and add to his momentum from Iowa. He will likely go on to win in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida... giving him the big Mo' heading into Super Tuesday. This is going to be a Huckabee McCain race to the finish.
Rudy's gamble of waiting for Super Tuesday did not pay off. He will have no momentum going into Florida, and likely finish second to Huckabee. This blow will lead to a lackluster performance on Super Tuesday. Rudy will likely hold out for the National Convention, hoping to win over some delegates as Romney and Thompson drop out of the race.
Ron Paul will make his last stand in NH. This is the only state where he would have had a chance to come out on top, with the support of the Independent voters. However, a 4th place finish will leave his campaign with no momentum... plenty of cash, but no momentum. I doubt that he runs as a Libertarian, but if he did, this could put the Libertarian party on the map, giving the Green party a run for it's money as the only viable third party. This would be optimal if Bloomberg also ran as an independent. We would see a four way race, where the Democrats are hit by the Independent Bloomberg, and the Independents are hit by the Libertarians, and the Republicans are hit by losing Independent voters to some degree... It would make it the most interesting election in recent history!
On the democratic side... if Obama pulls off another upset, as I predict, the Clinton campaign will be finished. Edwards will surge into first or second as Clinton's numbers plummet. The nomination will likely go to Edwards or Obama (in that order) after Super Tuesday clears Clinton off into a third place shocker. She will likely drop out and endorse Obama, but her voters will be split between Edwards and Obama... then it is a delegate war for who can cross the threshold first.
*Note, these predictions are subject to change assuming I am completely wrong and NH goes a totally different way.
But what about taking a look at New Hampshire? How is tomorrow going to play out? The debates showed that there are four candidates in this race nationally: McCain, Huckabee, Rudy, and Romney. Thompson will likely not register in these polls, and may hold out for South Carolina... but after an embarrassing finish there, he will withdraw.
I call NH this way for the Republicans:
McCain: 37%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 10%
Rudy: 9%
Thompson: 1%
NH Dems:
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 24%
Richardson: 6%
Kucinich: 5%
On the Republican side, the poor 2nd place showing will be a second blow to the already critically wounded (post Iowa) Romney Campaign. After a 2nd place finish in NH, Michigan wont much matter, and there are no other states where Romney is polling in first besides Utah (and perhaps MA, but I don't know... the last poll was from April of 2007).
Fred Thompson is not expecting anything out of NH, and only showed up in the state for the debates, then it was off to SC where he is facing a 2:1 deficit to Mike Huckabee, who leads the state. After a fourth place finish (to Huckabee, McCain, and Mitt or Rudy)... perhaps a 3rd place finish if Mitt and Rudy continue to slip, Fred will give a speech along the lines of: "Well... we gave it a good run... but it looks like it wasn't meant to be... so I will be withdrawing my campaign from the race, and endorsing John McCain"
John McCain will get a huge boost from an overwhelming win in NH. This boost will likely propel him to a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Michigan, and make him a contender (likely finishing 2nd) in SC. This will give him some momentum going into Super Tuesday. I say SOME because he will not do well in Florida, so there will be one loss just days before Super Tuesday.
Mike Huckabee's convincing 3rd place finish will reignite the huckaboom, and add to his momentum from Iowa. He will likely go on to win in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida... giving him the big Mo' heading into Super Tuesday. This is going to be a Huckabee McCain race to the finish.
Rudy's gamble of waiting for Super Tuesday did not pay off. He will have no momentum going into Florida, and likely finish second to Huckabee. This blow will lead to a lackluster performance on Super Tuesday. Rudy will likely hold out for the National Convention, hoping to win over some delegates as Romney and Thompson drop out of the race.
Ron Paul will make his last stand in NH. This is the only state where he would have had a chance to come out on top, with the support of the Independent voters. However, a 4th place finish will leave his campaign with no momentum... plenty of cash, but no momentum. I doubt that he runs as a Libertarian, but if he did, this could put the Libertarian party on the map, giving the Green party a run for it's money as the only viable third party. This would be optimal if Bloomberg also ran as an independent. We would see a four way race, where the Democrats are hit by the Independent Bloomberg, and the Independents are hit by the Libertarians, and the Republicans are hit by losing Independent voters to some degree... It would make it the most interesting election in recent history!
On the democratic side... if Obama pulls off another upset, as I predict, the Clinton campaign will be finished. Edwards will surge into first or second as Clinton's numbers plummet. The nomination will likely go to Edwards or Obama (in that order) after Super Tuesday clears Clinton off into a third place shocker. She will likely drop out and endorse Obama, but her voters will be split between Edwards and Obama... then it is a delegate war for who can cross the threshold first.
*Note, these predictions are subject to change assuming I am completely wrong and NH goes a totally different way.
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