Attempting to Undo NH's Fumble

Iowa, for Obama, was the 70 yard field goal... the miracle moment, where an unlikely candidate overturned the foreboding monster of the Clinton Campaign. The media revelled... even those within her party revelled... it was the beginning of the end for the Clinton Dynasty.

And then something happened in NH. Was it the tearful plea for support, which drove women to vote for her in numbers unseen in Iowa... or those same tears that drove the men to ditch the Democratic ticket all together and support McCain. Either way, there was a fumble... where early polls showed Obama leading the state by 10 points easily, then going on to lose by 3.

Alas... in protesting style (and two days too late), John Kerry has decided to support and endorse Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination.

This is a direct slap in the face of both John Edwards, his 2004 running mate, and Hillary Clinton, the Dynasty Diva.

His endorsement is one of supporting a candidate capable of "Transformational Change" in the United States, where Clinton's vision of change is simply to change BACK to the Clinton years... as can be seen by her appearances with Madeline Albright, and the recent re-hiring of Bill's campaign strategists and presidential advisers... one can see that the change she suggests is nothing more than a change back to 1992.

As well, Bill Richardson is exiting stage left. If he were to endorse Obama, it would be another hit to the Clinton campaign... and another loud statement that the party does not support the Clinton Dynasty.

Now the focus is on John Edwards. If he continues to pull in embarrassingly low numbers, what he is doing is splitting the vote of the OTH (Other Than Hillary) crowd, and offering her the nomination. If he truly believes what he says, he should consider endorsing Obama and making the deal for the VP nod. Barack and John united will pull in 50% - 60% of the votes in each state, leaving Clinton's 30% - 35% support base out of the big show. The longer that Edwards hangs on, the more I have to wonder if he is not a Clinton operative, in the race to ensure her candidacy...

New Hampshire results... All eyes on Michigan, Nevada, SC

New Hampshire provided expected results for the Republicans (though Fox Pundits appeared shock that their golden boy lost), but the big upset was Clinton over Obama.

Here were my predictions and the actual results:
GOP:
McCain: 37%...... 37%
Romney: 28%.... 32%
Huckabee: 15%.. 11%
Paul: 10%............ 8%
Rudy: 9%............. 9%
Thompson: 1%.... 1%

Dems:
Obama: 39%....... 37%
Clinton: 26%....... 39%
Edwards: 24%.... 17%
Richardson: 6%.. 5%
Kucinich: 5%....... 1%

I was pretty on target for the GOP, there was a 4% vote swing in my prediction in Huckabee's favor that I took from Romney... looks like he took it back!

For the Dems, I was right on that the leader would get 39%... i just did not think that was going to be Hilalry. I suppose that the loss in Iowa motivated her base support to get out the vote!

The biggest losers of the NH primary: John Edwards and Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney spent upwards of $20 Million in 2 states, and has lost both of them. He is looking to a victory in Michigan to keep his campaign alive. The small amount of delegates he has picked up so far will be nothing come SC, Florida, and Super Tuesday... He has no momentum, and has been shown back-to-back defeats... It won't be too long before Ann Romney confiscates the checkbook and makes him drop out. Even with a Michigan win, his campaign is seriously in doubt... and he kissed his VP nod goodbye when he started attacking everyone to get on top. Poor form, old chap!

John Edwards' whooping in NH was a big shocker. After a strong showing in Iowa, John was picking up some momentum... Hillary took that out in one blow. The only way that John can look to beat Hilalry is to meet up with Obama and work out some sort of a coalition and VP nod... With both of them in the race, it looks like Hilalry is going to squeak out victory after victory... may have turned out to be a fluke, and with Edwards WAY behind in NH, Obama hanging on, you have to wonder how long Edwards stays in... the longer he does, the more likely that Hillary gets the nod.

What can we expect to see? On the side of the democrats, Obama's loss brings up questions of Hillary's inevitability once again... The pundits will say that Iowa was a fluke, and her support may begin to rise... the Clinton Machine is well funded and well oiled... She may have some fight left in her yet... This was a big night for her campaign... and likely ended John Edwards'.

The GOP will move on to Michigan, where Huckabee will likely beat out Romney. If Romney finishes second, he is finished. If Huckabee finishes second, he has SC and Florida to look forward to. A second place finish in Michigan for Huckabee would surely take the momentum away heading into SC, where he will be challenged by McCain. If McCain takes SC, he likely takes Florida, and will have all the momentum going into Super Tuesday, where he and Rudy will battle it out. There will be a three way tie in delegates between Rudy, McCain, and Huckabee after Super Tuesday, and the brokering begins... likely McCain and Huckabee join up and run on one ticket in 2008. However, if Huckabee takes Michigan and SC, Florida is his to lose, and he is clearly the front-runner going into Super Tuesday. He would likely lead with delegates after S.T. and we would go into brokering, where he will likely ask for McCain's endorsement and run on a Huckabee / McCain ticket. If McCain does not do well due to a SC loss, Huckabee may choose someone like Governor Sarah Palin as a running mate, and they will likely sweep into office in the general election.

Let's hear what happens in the next few days... there will be a dropped bid by Richardson, I am sure...

any thoughts?

The Death of Establishment Politics?

The new buzzword from the lips of the establishment political mouthpieces is no longer "islamofascists"... well, at least not during the election season. The new buzzword is "populism"... but trust me on this, the use of the word is meant to invoke the same fear and emotion!

The reason that this word is causing fear is that the people are speaking, and they are finally united in one effort: Get rid of politics as usual. One thing is for sure, politics in America will never be the same after 2008! At least if the trends continue.

The establishment candidates are falling faster than those poorly animated ducks in Nintendo's Duck Hunt... That hunting dog has his work cut out for him as he has to run around picking up nose-diving establishment candidates.

And if one pays any attention to tracking polls, you can clearly see that the populous was wearily supporting the establishment candidates, because the Media declared that they were the only viable candidates in either party. But, as the polls show, the first sign that there was even a hint of viability in another candidate, the establishment lost the wheels on it's bandwagon! (See the red arrows in the picture above... nose-dives indeed!)

Since 2006, the media has been building the next Royal Rumble... Hillary Clinton facing off on the national stage against Rudy Giuliani... pollsters and pundits have written books about this clash of the titans, made millions, and had nearly handicapped the 2008 race for us...

So was this anticipation the straw that broke the camel's back? Was it the grinding in on "viability" politics that finally made the people throw their hands in the air and declare "ENOUGH!"? I think so... I think the quasi-subdued citizens, distracted by American Idol and Top Model, were motivated by something different... and the tools of motivation made these citizens more accessible.

That is right... The death of the establishment politics, and the rise of populist politics, is due to the internet. The last vestige of free speech... and I mean free in that you can send powerful messages (via YouTube, e-mail, MySpace, Facebook) for FREE. No money required. That means candidates can focus on getting their messages out to millions of citizens at the cost of ZERO...

Then enter the bloggers... the most effective and passionate grassroots effort in American Politics... perhaps in history... capable of causing a revolution within our government without firing a single shot... The perfect example of the David v. Goliath... the Bloggers taking on the Major News Outlets... Communication amongst the people, giving rally cries, circling wagons, reaching out to one another, and waiting for our chance to pounce.

No longer are we restricted to the newspaper reading over the coffee table, where we are limited to bouncing our ideas and opinions off of our significant other... Now, each and every citizen has a forum... and we are excited about it.

Now that we are able to see our results, the impact that we have had, the downing of the establishment candidates... politics in America will never be the same. Empty campaign promises, negativity, gaffes, and slips... they will all be reported, they will all be discussed, they will all be scrutinized... because, in our lifetime, we have seen the beginning of the populist movement, when the people... WE the people... have decided to take our government back.

Let's see what happens after tonight... but I am willing to bet the farm that the trends continue, and that the pundits will be left scratching their heads over two obscure dark horse candidates getting the nod, and heading into the general election.

Predictions for the NH Primary

Real Clear Politics is showing a new trend after the Iowa Caucus, and in anticipation of the New Hampshire Caucus: Mike Huckabee and John McCain are surging nationally, while Rudy Giuliani (who is seeing his lowest numbers of the race) and Mitt Romney are free-falling. In fact, the latest polls show a three way tie for first: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee... but unfortunately for Rudy, his numbers are falling and it will not be too long before his campaign is through... At this rate, I doubt that he will make it to Super Tuesday in one piece... so it looks like his "Go Big or Go Home" approach to delegates (focusing only on the Super Tuesday states) has failed... or is in the midst of failing.

But what about taking a look at New Hampshire? How is tomorrow going to play out? The debates showed that there are four candidates in this race nationally: McCain, Huckabee, Rudy, and Romney. Thompson will likely not register in these polls, and may hold out for South Carolina... but after an embarrassing finish there, he will withdraw.

I call NH this way for the Republicans:
McCain: 37%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 10%
Rudy: 9%
Thompson: 1%

NH Dems:
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 24%
Richardson: 6%
Kucinich: 5%

On the Republican side, the poor 2nd place showing will be a second blow to the already critically wounded (post Iowa) Romney Campaign. After a 2nd place finish in NH, Michigan wont much matter, and there are no other states where Romney is polling in first besides Utah (and perhaps MA, but I don't know... the last poll was from April of 2007).

Fred Thompson is not expecting anything out of NH, and only showed up in the state for the debates, then it was off to SC where he is facing a 2:1 deficit to Mike Huckabee, who leads the state. After a fourth place finish (to Huckabee, McCain, and Mitt or Rudy)... perhaps a 3rd place finish if Mitt and Rudy continue to slip, Fred will give a speech along the lines of: "Well... we gave it a good run... but it looks like it wasn't meant to be... so I will be withdrawing my campaign from the race, and endorsing John McCain"

John McCain will get a huge boost from an overwhelming win in NH. This boost will likely propel him to a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Michigan, and make him a contender (likely finishing 2nd) in SC. This will give him some momentum going into Super Tuesday. I say SOME because he will not do well in Florida, so there will be one loss just days before Super Tuesday.

Mike Huckabee's convincing 3rd place finish will reignite the huckaboom, and add to his momentum from Iowa. He will likely go on to win in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida... giving him the big Mo' heading into Super Tuesday. This is going to be a Huckabee McCain race to the finish.

Rudy's gamble of waiting for Super Tuesday did not pay off. He will have no momentum going into Florida, and likely finish second to Huckabee. This blow will lead to a lackluster performance on Super Tuesday. Rudy will likely hold out for the National Convention, hoping to win over some delegates as Romney and Thompson drop out of the race.

Ron Paul will make his last stand in NH. This is the only state where he would have had a chance to come out on top, with the support of the Independent voters. However, a 4th place finish will leave his campaign with no momentum... plenty of cash, but no momentum. I doubt that he runs as a Libertarian, but if he did, this could put the Libertarian party on the map, giving the Green party a run for it's money as the only viable third party. This would be optimal if Bloomberg also ran as an independent. We would see a four way race, where the Democrats are hit by the Independent Bloomberg, and the Independents are hit by the Libertarians, and the Republicans are hit by losing Independent voters to some degree... It would make it the most interesting election in recent history!

On the democratic side... if Obama pulls off another upset, as I predict, the Clinton campaign will be finished. Edwards will surge into first or second as Clinton's numbers plummet. The nomination will likely go to Edwards or Obama (in that order) after Super Tuesday clears Clinton off into a third place shocker. She will likely drop out and endorse Obama, but her voters will be split between Edwards and Obama... then it is a delegate war for who can cross the threshold first.

*Note, these predictions are subject to change assuming I am completely wrong and NH goes a totally different way.

Round One: Iowa Caucus, Thompson to Drop Bid, Huckabee Expected to Win Big

The day has finally arrived... January 3rd, 2008. The Iowa Caucus. Perhaps the biggest day in the 2008 Presidential elections since the Straw Poll in Ames 5 long months ago.

Those of us who have been living and breathing this stuff since before then are more than ecstatic! Oh... if only I could take a peak at the headlines of tomorrow! The anticipation is killing me more in this one day than in all days prior!

What is more, even Mitt Romney, the multi-million dollar man, has predicted that he will lose to Huckabee tonight. One thing that we can all agree on is that it has been a tough race, but the political oddity of our time is that a dirt-road candidate with no money or organization has seemingly unseated the established and well funded candidate. If things play out this way tonight, it will be, perhaps, one of the greatest political feats of our time!

But the trouble continues after the Iowa Caucus. Fred Thompson's campaign has made it clear that if Thompson does not finish in the top 2 or 3, Fred Thompson will drop the race. Talk about taking the first exit off the expressway! This guy never really wanted to run in the first place, so this is an easy out. I commend him on inspiring his base! And even though Thompson is said to endorse John McCain when he drops the race, I doubt that all of those votes will actually go to McCain. In fact, 2nd choice for a lot of Fred Thompson voters are spread between Huckabee, McCain, and Romney... so it will be interesting to see how those votes are distributed in NH. What is more interesting is how an announcement like this will influence voters in Iowa on the day of the caucus. Perhaps the Iowa Fred-Heads will throw their 1st choice vote to Huckabee or McCain in Iowa. This definitely shakes things up a bit on Caucus Day!

Depending on how this day turns out, all eyes will be on John McCain, and the endorsement he will receive from Fred Thompson. Will this push him to imminent victory in New Hampshire, despite the Independent vote, or does Thompson's poor support in that state even matter come the Primary? And will this move hurt or help Huckabee and Rudy?

It seems to me that Rudy's hold out for Super Tuesday was a poor tactic. He will have zero momentum going into Feb 5th. If Huckabee wins tonight, and McCain wins NH, Huckabee is sure to take Michigan from Romney, clean up in SC, and use the momentum to defeat Rudy in SC before Super Tuesday. McCain's numbers are close enough in Michigan and SC to give Huckabee a run for his money... but tonight will give momentum to next Tuesday... and after Next Tuesday, it could be a Huckabee / McCain race to the nomination (in either order).

On the Democratic side, If Edwards pulls the upset tonight, he could possibly use this momentum to sweep the states before Super Tuesday. If Clinton doesn't have the momentum on Super Tuesday, Edwards could win out the day. People are looking for a reason not to support Hillary, and just like Rudy's numbers fell with the first sign of hope in another candidate, so too will Clinton.

So the three candidates to watch tonight are Huckabee, McCain, and John Edwards.