Schaffer v Udall - Watching Paint Dry

Throughout Douglas County, Republicans have been motivated to participate in party events, volunteer activities, and get-out-the-vote efforts after the announcement of Sarah Palin as the VP pick on John McCain's Reform GOP ticket. From the lips of event organizers - "Take a McCain yard sign - and take two Bob Schaffer signs!"

As excited as everyone in Colorado is about the Presidential race, there seems to be a race that people really seem to not care about in the slightest - Schaffer (R) v. Udall (D).

Polls are showing a common trend that the two candidates are within the margin of error of one another: Udall 41%, Schaffer 38% - This is great news for the Schaffer campaign, as their goal seems to be to stay within the margin of error while Republicans are at a general poll disadvantage of ~6% on average in generic polling.

Unfortunately, what is not being reported, or largely discussed, is that 20% of Colorado voters are UNDECIDED in this Senate race.

This is a failure on the part of BOTH campaigns - who continue to sling mud rather than make a case for their candidate.

At event after event, party leadership continues to push Schaffer on Republicans - however, Schaffer himself seems to be less than enthusiastic about the race, or targeting the additional 20% of undecided voters. Recently, at the State Party Central Committee, members were attempting to provide some suggestions for answering attacks that may be turning off potential Schaffer voters - to which Schaffer gave a "that's not in our campaign strategy" answer... even though the answer he gave would make a great commercial advertisement introducing him as a standard businessman, middle-class American who is looking to implement Core Conservative Values in the US Senate. I guess that message is not getting out, and not in their strategy. Unfortunately, their strategy doesn't seem to be very effective!

The result - Perhaps the least interesting yet most important senate race in the West.

With 20 days left until mail-in ballots drop, it is impossible to call this race. There has been no major move to garner the support of the 20% undecided by either campaign, and no move to re-introduce the candidates to the people. It is Core GOP v Core Dem - with the independent bystanders less than attentive or engaged.

If these two candidates can't bridge this gap, I have to wonder about their ability to lead Colorado in the Senate, and I have to question their staying power in Colorado politics.

Colorado: Obama or McCain?

The Quinnipiac University polls shows McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, the top choice among 46 percent of likely Colorado voters. Democrat Barack Obama is the top choice among 44 percent of likely voters. A month ago, Obama had an easy 5 point lead over McCain.

This is at the same time when Democratic candidate for Senate in Colorado blew a 10 point lead in the polls to Republican Bob Schaffer, now polling within the margin of error of Udall.

"Not surprisingly, Obama's strength is in the Denver/Boulder precincts where he leads almost two-to-one, while he trails everywhere else in the state. As the presidential race has tilted a bit toward McCain, GOP Senate candidate Bob Schaffer has moved into a dead heat after trailing Democrat Mark Udall by 10 points a month ago," Brown said. "

The poll shows that Democrats are taking hits because of the price of gasoline... This may or may not be the case (see my previous post on "who is to blame"), but the continuous Democratic talking points stating that high gas prices are good for us because it is demanding alternative means of energy production does not sit well with the voters - however true that statement is. The Democrats are coming out as "out-of-touch" with the reality of the voters, that it is impossible for us to maintain this gas spending even after we have cut back to driving to work only... it hurt at $2.00 a gallon - it kills at $4.00 a gallon... and when some are saying that they wish the prices would continue to increase (droping consumption, and stopping Global Warming). Meanwhile, the price of oil has dropped $20 a barrell since President Bush announced the repeal of the Executive Order banning deep sea offshore drilling. If Congress followed suit, I could foresee oil futures dropping well below $80 a barrel within weeks of such an announcement. Current oil prices are a result of lack of exploration, and the fact that all known sources of oil are going to be depleted within 40-60 years...

But this is not just a Colorado trend. Across the nation, Democrats are taking big hits in these early polls, which they usually do well in up to about November 3rd... Other swing state results in which McCain is closing the gap are:

• Colorado: McCain is up by a nose 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 49 - 44 percent Obama lead June 26;
  
• Michigan: Obama tops McCain 46 - 42 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent lead last time;
  
• Minnesota: Obama edges ahead 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 54 - 37 percent Obama lead;
  
• Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 50 - 39 percent, compared to 52 - 39 percent.

Democrats were winning on the energy issue as recently as April -- convincing voters that their recipe for alternative fuels, wind and solar energy, was the best solution for America's future, public opinion guru Floyd Ciruli said this morning.

"Then it shifted in April, when gasoline hit $4 a gallon," said Ciruli, who heads Ciruli & Associates of Denver.

Suddenly, the pain at the gas pump was so acute that most voters moved away from the idealistic view of an American energy diet and looked for who to blame for the high prices, he said.

They chose the Democrats, who've opposed drilling off shore and in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, in the name of environmental sustainability.

Voters in each of the four battleground states support off-shore drilling and drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge — activities that McCain supports but Obama opposes. In Colorado, the margin is 52 percent to 44 percent.

This is great news for Republicans, and shows a trend that favors economics and energy issues beginning to dominate the political spectrum - namely because of the successes in Iraq. If the GOP can put a stamp on the success in Iraq, claim it as their own, put the emphasis back on Osama Bin Laden and Afghanistan with a security policy in that region - the Democrats will surely lose. Their success since 2006 has been based on a referendum on Iraq... With Iraq off the table, the GOP stands to bounce back - for the following reasons:

- We have the best policy for plausible energy alternatives, and ending the immediate energy crisis
- We have the best economic recovery plan, one that does NOT include raising taxes (Mr Obama)
- We have the best plan for active conservation of our national parks, as opposed to the radical policy that has lead to the death of large percentages of forests, etc
- We have the best plan for foreign policy - Peace through strength
- We have the best plan for education

Applying small government solutions to these problems is the best way to solve problems.

Mark Udall's Problem - People Noticed Him

Republican candidate for Colorado Senate, Bob Schaffer, is closing the gap on ultra-liberal Mark Udall, says the latest Rasmussen Poll.

Mark Udall had spent time, money, and man-power to jump out to an early lead in the Centennial State Senate Race, airing commercials allowing him to get name recognition...unfortunately for Mark Udall, once people know you, they want to know about you!

Mark Udall had a very poor showing in the televised Schaffer v. Udall debate, held in Republican Strong Douglas County. Regardless of the spin that the Udall campaign attempted to put on the debate, the voters of Colorado who took notice of the debate saw each candidate for who they were and what they truly stood for.

Bob Schaffer revealed to the viewers the reason that we were in Iraq... a pro-invasion bill that excited the conservatives and made the liberals uneasy - then noted that it was penned by the Liberal candidate, Mark Udall. The body language of Mark Udall screamed defeat. And the voters noticed.

As the race continues, Mark Udall is going to be plagued by an electorate that is being made more aware of what the implementation of his type of policies would really mean for America. He is going to have to deal with the media fall-out from the Democratic National Convention, and more importantly he is going to have to explain to the Colorado Voters how a Colorado Democrat differs from a San Francisco Democrat, hoping that they buy that load and ignore the fact that in D.C. they are both working towards the same ends. Now that the campaigns are in full swing, Mark Udall is quickly realizing that he is going to have an uphill battle in pulling the wool over the eyes of the voters in Colorado.