Saturday, December 29, 2007

How does the next month play out?

We are in the business of talking politics, and making our political predictions. No one can argue that at this point it is all merely a guess, but take a stab at giving me your prediction for how the next month plays out. (Thanks to Political Realm for the blog idea!)
  • Who will win the Iowa Caucuses?
  • Who will win the New Hampshire primaries?
  • Who will win the Democratic nomination?
  • Who will win the Republican nomination?
  • What will be the biggest surprise during primary season?
My prediction is below (as posted in response to Political Realm):

The GOP:
Iowa goes to Huckabee, Romney is left to spin the results.

NH goes to McCain, Romney holds out for Michigan.

Huckabee takes Michigan with McCain in 2nd.

Huckabee takes SC, McCain finishes distant second with Romney and Thompson tied for third. Fred Thompson drops the race short of Super Tuesday. Romney holds out for Super Tuesday. Rudy has yet to make any movement.

Rudy/Huck statistically tie for 1st in Florida, breathing life into Rudy's campaign just before Super Tuesday.

Super Tuesday winners are Rudy, Huckabee, McCain. Romney drops the race.
Ultimately, McCain drops the race, endorses Huckabee. Huckabee gets the nod and McCain looks for the VP nod.

The Dems:
John Edwards sends a shock through the nation in Iowa, coming out on top.

Edwards' surge in Iowa translates into votes in NH, where he finishes statistically tied for 1st with Clinton, Obama finishes 2nd.

Clinton wins in Michigan and Nevada, with Edwards securing 2nd place finishes, Obama just behind but slipping in the polls.

Edwards' surge rallies his support in his home-state, and he takes the win in SC, Clinton claiming second, Obama third.

Clinton's poll numbers begin to slip, but she manages to take Florida, Edwards finishes second on the wave of momentum, and Obama finishes third.

Super Tuesday goes to Clinton overwhelmingly, with a surprise strong 2nd place finish by John Edwards. Obama drops the race, endorses Hillary (in hopes of getting the VP nod).

My guess is based on polling trends, and a little hope for dumb luck.

1 comment:

  1. Who will win the Iowa Caucuses?
    - Mike Huckabee. Romney in second.

    Who will win the New Hampshire
    primaries?
    - McCain. Romney second, but loses more attention to Mike Huckabee in third.

    Who will win the Democratic nomination?
    - Joe Biden (well, my opinion ... if they have any sense at all, they'll nominate Biden)

    Who will win the Republican nomination?
    - Mike Huckabee

    What will be the biggest surprise during primary season?
    - Romney's break down in tears after SC and he realizes that his millions didn't buy him one win in the first four states, and that Mrs. Romney has frozen his bank accounts (those in the US and elsewhere).

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