Hi-Ho: Off to caucus I go...

I am off to caucus where I will be casting a vote in the Colorado Presidential Straw Poll for Mike Huckabee, proudly might I add!

I will be providing some more insight and opinion upon my return.

As I am leaving, Georgia is reporting 2% in their primary, and McCain and Huckabee are pulling away from the pack. 9 more states will begin reporting votes in moments, and I will be able to discuss all the results when I return tonight!

Happy voting! Happy Super Tuesday!

Sour Grapes

Romney supporters across America, and especially on FoxNews and Talk radio, are blowing West Virginia WAY out of proportion.

Looking at the numbers, McCain and Paul had 334 votes between them. With Paul out of the race, that left 118 voters up for grabs. McCain's 176 votes were in jeopardy as a potential third round would likely count him out altogether.

Huckabee gained 192 votes. That means that some Ron Paul supporters also came to Mike Huckabee.

Romney gained 57 votes. Suppose for a moment that some of those votes came from McCain supporters... That is most likely.

73 voters walked out of the convention, opting not to vote more than once.

In the West Virginia convention process, we all need to understand that a non viable candidate, like McCain and Paul in the first vote, will require that their delegates have a legitimate second choice. Their motivation to vote should not be called into question. That is called poor sportsmanship. That is being nothing more than a sour grape!

Romney gained votes on the second choice, but Huckabee gained more. It may be that some delegates were undecided as to their second choice, and were instructed that they should support Huckabee. That is the process in this type of venue.

To quote Romney himself: Quit Whining!

A loss is a loss, and that is what Romney took in West Virginia. Learn to lose with dignity, learn to lose with grace. Stop being sour grapes!

States Won: Super Tuesday - updated

Huckabee wins West Virginia!

CNN Reports that the second round of delegate counting is 100% complete:

Huckabee: 567 - 52%
Romney: 521 - 47%
McCain: 12 - 1%
Giuliani: 0 - 0%
Paul: 0 - 0%

Mike Huckabee takes first blood on Super Tuesday, and picks up 18 delegates from the state of West Virginia.

West Virginia Results - Thoughts - 2nd Round of Counting

Huckabee had a strong performance in West Virginia, but Romney faired better at the convention's first round count:

Romney: 464 - 41%
Huckabee: 375 - 33%
McCain: 176 - 16%
Paul: 118 - 10%

89 Delegates seperated Huckabee and Romney.

I have edited this post, because I was not previously aware that a candidate must win more than 50% of the delegates to win the state. Therefore, there is a second round of counting taking place, and a shuffle of delegates. There are promises and favors being flung this way and that at the convention as Huckabee and Romney delegates attempt to win the Ron Paul support and the John McCain support. McCain is still included in the second round, but because Paul was seen as non viable, his delegates must vote for one of the other three.

For starters, I feel like an idiot. I was unaware of the majority rule. I was starting to look at the state as a Huckabee loss.

The big question I must now pose is if the state recounts come in too late, will the winner of the early vote state get any sort of bounce?

Super Tuesday Predictions - updated with results

My Super Tuesday state count prediction is as follows:

REPUBLICANS:
Huckabee: +7 states: AL, AR, GA, MO, ND, TN, WV
McCain: +9 states: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MN, NJ, NY, OK
Romney: +4 states: CO, MA, MT, UT
Paul: +1 state: AK

DEMOCRATS:
Clinton: + 11 states: AL, AZ, AR, DE, MA, MN, NJ, NY, ND, OK, TN,
Obama: + 11 states: AK, CA, CO, CT, GA, ID, IL, KS, MO, NM, UT

UPDATE: RESULTS
Romney has just won the WV Convention: Romney 41%, Huckabee 33%, McCain 16%, Paul 10% - Apparently, this was first round of voting results. To get the 18 delegates and the state, a candidate must get more than 50% of the votes. This contest is still open!
-Mike Huckabee wins in WV with 52% over Romney's 47% and McCain's 1%
-Obama is projected early winner in GA

Candidate Results are as follows: (state I called incorrectly in red)

REPUBLICANS:
Huckabee: +5 states: AL, AR, GA, TN, WV
McCain: +9 states: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NY, NJ, OK
Romney: +7 states: AK, CO, MN, ND, UT, MT, MA
Paul:

DEMOCRATS:
Clinton:+8 states: AR, AZ, CA, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN
Obama: +14 states: AK, AL, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, NM, UT,

Thoughts on West Virginia Speeches

West Virginia is clearly a Huckabee / Romney state. The speeches were great, the crowd was pumped up... and now the delegates vote for this winner take 18 state.

I predict that Huckabee will win. He had the advantage of speaking last, jazzing the crowd, and speaking to the hearts of the delegates. That being said, Romney supporters had to sit through the lack-lustered McCain presentation by McCain's surrogate. The fact that Huckabee had the chance to wake this crowd up may pay big dividends!

WV gives out 30 delegates, but only 18 are being pledged today by the convention. Nine more are being handed out based on the Primary results in May... and three stay unpledged and belong to the state party... perhaps for bargaining tools.

The results should be out before 12:30 ET. That is one hour away... breath is officially being held!

Desperation in Romney Push Pre-Super Tuesday

Driving home through a mini blizzard, I decided that the best way to focus would be to listen to the AM radio, where Hugh Hewitt was having one of his Romney days.

One thing was said time and again from the ever full-of-himself Hugh, and it really upset me.

He claimed that a vote for Huckabee is a wasted vote, because "He doesn't stand a chance of winning anyway"

And he went on to take calls from McCain, Romney, and Huckabee supporters from Super Tuesday states, asking them why they support their candidate. Of course, every time a Huckabee voter was on the line, Hugh said: You know that you are throwing your vote away, and ensuring a McCain victory... Time and again, caller after caller.

HOW IS THIS ANY WORSE THAN PUSH POLLS?

FOR SHAME! Shame on Hugh, Shame on Romney's campaign for not calling in and asking him to stop, and shame on anyone who complained about groups push polling for Huckabee but who are going to remain silent in their hypocrisy! FOR SHAME!

Let me explain one thing: A vote is something very sacred, very meaningful, and should require knowledge and courage.

A vote is NEVER thrown away, if you are voting in good conscience, and are casting your ballot for what you believe!

A vote, especially in the primary process, is a vote for what you truly want on the party platform. It is a vote for the direction of the country, the direction of the party, and the candidate that you feel best represents YOUR VALUES.

You should not be scared or pushed into voting for another candidate out of fear that another might win. I will come straight out and say it... If Mitt Romney was as good as Hugh and all the pundits claim him to be, HE WOULD HAVE ALREADY TAKEN THOSE VOTES FROM HUCKABEE!

And for Mitt Romney to claim that Huckabee should drop out, and that Huck's voters belong to him... FOR SHAME on Romney to assume that he knows more about how someone who supports Huckabee should vote than they do!

This is a last ditch, desperate attempt to drive Romney's numbers up. Yet one more sleazy reason why I could never back that kind of character! Politics as usual does not cut it for me. I need a candidate with true compassion, true conscience, true understanding, and the ability to reason.

Super Bowl, Super Tuesday

Coming from Seattle, I have been trained to have a natural disdain for anything coming out of New York. However, like any reasonably stable individual, I understand that there are times when one should support a team, despite their New York status.

Add to it that I just LOVE an underdog, and I will have to admit that I was pulling for the New York Giants to upset the Pats. Let's just say that it was a very vocal and entertaining Super Bowl party at my house yesterday! What an historic game, and a very dissapointing showing from the team that was crowned the victor before the show even began.

Which leads me into Super Tuesday. Granted, the house parties will be few and far between... but I am hoping for the results to be the same.

I am invoking the name of the Underdog... who's spirit is alive and well in the wake of the Giant's upset of the Pats.
When it comes down to selecting a candidate, electiblity comes with support... it is the message that matters! Anyone is electible, if they can overcome their hurdles... what is important is the consistency of the message.

This will be the big show for both the Dems and the Republicans... and where the Democrats once lauded the GOP for such a contested race with no clear front-runner, they find themselves up to their ears in the same mud!

Who will play the role of the phoenix? Who will rise from the ashes of Super Tuesday and claim victory? Will it be Obama over Hillary? Will it be Huckabee over McCain and Romney?

The first contest is in West Virginia, whos convention concludes at 12:30 ET tomorrow. According to this WSJ site, the West Virginia contest is still wide open between all three candidates. The way West Virginia is voting is a convention, where the candidates are granted 20 minutes each... if they decide to show up. They can use that 20 minutes to woo the delegates, and go for a first round win early in the day. Romney and Huckabee are leading the state, but most delegates are uncommitted. Any candidate who shows up, especially if uncontested, will likely win the convention.

The next state to close is Georgia. Huckabee must win in this state. Georgia is a pulse on how the other Huckabee sympathetic states may vote. Since Iowa, Huckabee has failed to win any states. South Carolina was a bad blow to his momentum, and since then his supporters have been looking for a sign that his campaign has not been critically wounded. Polling shows Huckabee up in Georgia, Tennessee, and Arkansas... though his lead has eroded away since SC and Florida. Huckabee needs to make headlines today if he plans to win tomorrow!

Mitt Romney is also battling the McCain monster across the US. In my previous post, I did not predict a strong showing for Romney... But Romney has some momentum, coming out of a Maine win... (yeah, Maine voted this last weekend... who knew?)... Romney's struggle is for the top of the ticket. I have said it a number of times, Romney has made no friends in the field of candidates... should he come out behind with delegates, he may as well throw in the towel, because he can't and won't get the VP nod.

McCain has the momentum, but it may be a little too sugar coated for a lot of voters. They still remember 2000, and then the bills that he led since then. Folks are heistant to support McCain because he truly is a Republican Maverick. Can a maverick lead the party, or levaae it in disarray?

And then there is Ron Paul. I had originally counted him out of all the state contests, but he is rising in the polls as an alternate to the three that are above him. He stands a decent chance to show strength in an independent state like Alaska... I originally was calling this state for the Independent minded McCain, but Paul is the only candidate with a campaign office in the state, and any real organization on the ground. Could Ron Paul pick up Alaska?

Of course, as I said, today is the day for the candidates to make some headlines. Press conferences are nice, but resounding policy speeches are better! Now is the time to be blunt, be presidential, and hope that you can pick up those undecided voters!

Super Tuesday is a Three Man Race

Pundits say what they will, but Super Tuesday is a Three Man Race... and as such, the GOP race is as well.

John McCain picked up the endorsement of Rudy Giuliani, Fred Supporters have moved into one of the other camps, or undecideds, and the race is marching on.

John McCain surely has all the momentum going into Super Tuesday... but to call the race over is very much a jump of the gun. Not even 10% of all the delegates have been allocated, yet everyone wants to throw in the towels.

To look at who could come out on top, we need to look at the next contest. As the contest is spread out over 21 states for the GOP, it is clear that the campaign with the most money can advertise in the most locations... and that is Mitt. Unfortunately, Mitt's coffers are about as dry as the other campaigns, so each candidate is focussing on states that they need to try and win.

If all three candidates (Huckabee, McCain, Romney) come out with equal states, regardless of delegates, then Super Tuesday is a wash. If one candidate can claim victory by overwhelmingly winning the majority of the states (not just delegates), then the balance of power may shift.

Remember, these three candidates ALL look great going into Super Tuesday... They are all hovering around 20% nationally, and all seem to have a few states locked in Super Tuesday... but the close races will make or break some campaigns!

Let's take a look at the states, the challengers in those states, and the expected outcome.

Alabama (primary)- 48 delegates: Huckabee v McCain
Neither candidate is campaigning hard in this state, but Huckabee has the advantage as a Southern Governor. If Rudy's 9% jump to McCain, McCain wins the state. If Romney supporters see McCain winning the state as a bad thing, they may decide to support Huckabee as a blow to the McCain campaign. Romney holds a distant third in the state with no hope of winning. I give this state to Huckabee.

Alaska (caucus)- 29 delegates: McCain v Romney v Huckabee v Paul
This state has conducted no polling that is on record. It is a tough state to call, as it is a truly independent minded state... so much so that as recently as 1990 it elected a governor from a third party: The Alaskan Independence Party... not Independant, but independence... The party pushing for secession from the Union... like I said, a tough state to call! But I give it to McCain.

Arizona (straw poll)- 53 delegates WTA: McCain (solid)
Enough said. This is McCain country!

Arkansas (primary)- 34 delegates: Huckabee(solid)
Again, enough said. Huck holds a commanding lead on his home court!

California (primary)- 173 delegates: McCain v Romney
McCain holds the advantage going into Super Tuesday, as the Governator and Rudy both endorsed him. Good news for Romeny (projected 2nd place) and Huckabee (projected 3rd) is that California is no longer a WTA state. It is a WTA by district, which means that Romney and Huckabee can both pick up some delegates... Emphasis on "can"... Huckabee does not have the funding to campaign in this state, nor the momentum to make up a 15% deficit.

Colorado (caucus)- 46 delegates: Romney v McCain v Huckabee v Paul
This is a red state turning blue... but independents and democrats would have had to have registered as Republicans at the beginning of December if they intended to participate in caucus. Romney holds a strong lead, and will likely win. Though, word on the ground is that Ron Paul has very strong grass roots in this state, and could come out big in the straw poll. This is a state that is tough to call, though I see Romney and Paul doing well here. That being said, Romney wins CO.

Connecticut (primary)- 30 delegates WTA: McCain (solid)
McCain has risen to leads of around 20%. This is his state. Winner takes all.

Delaware (primary)- 18 delegates WTA: McCain v Romney
Huckabee is not a contender in this New England state. This was a sure Rudy win, but now the state is up for grabs. Much of the state is still undecided, but I see McCain coming out ahead.

Georgia (primary)- 72 delegates: Huckabee v McCain
This is not a WTA state, but Huckabee seems to be getting all the votes. McCain has made strides in the state after South Carolina and Florida, but Huckabee looks good in Georgia. The delegates could split between them, but I see Huckabee winning the state and taking home these Georgia delegates.

Illinois (straw poll)- 70 delegates: McCain v Huckabee v Romney v Paul
Ron Paul has polled well in this state, though he will do nothing more than play a spoiler. To whom? That is left to be seen. With Rudy out, McCain will do well in this state. I see Huckabee finishing a strong second, with Romney close behind at third. This is a tight state that has fluctuated in the polls based on who is leading the national polling. I see it as McCain, Huckabee, Romney - in that order.

Massachusetts (primary)- 43 delegates: Romney v McCain
This is a New England blood match. Romney will come out on top, but he has not been as strong in his home state as Huckabee and McCain have been in theirs. This is very telling. This is a two man race in MA. The winner, Romney.

Minnesota (caucus)- 41 delegates: McCain v Huckabee
This state is a McCain strong hold. They usually are more liberal voters, and McCain appeals to their needs. McCain will win this state, with Huckabee finishing a strong second.

Missouri (primary)- 58 delegates WTA: Huckabee v Romney v McCain
Huck and Mitt both have this state in their must win bags. McCain is strong because of his recent big wins, but the state may be more inclined to follow Huckabee. I see Huckabee and McCain battling it out for the win in this state, with Romney taking third. For now, I give the state to Huckabee.

Montana (caucus)- 25 delegates WTA: Huckabee v Romney v Paul v McCain
This has not been a widely disputed state. The voters tend to be both strongly conservative and independent. Huckabee and Romney should do well in this state. Huckabee may win.

New Jersey (primary)- 52 delegates WTA: McCain v Romney
With Rudy out, McCain will win this state. Winner take's all, so Romney should spend his money elsewhere.

New York (primary)- 101 delegates WTA: McCain v Romney
The state that Rudy could not win, yet it was his home turf. Another WTA state, Romney is going to finish at least 15% back. Again, that is money better spent elsewhere.

North Dakota (caucus)- 26 delegates WTA: Huckabee v Romney v McCain
As another WTA state, Romney and McCain should seek delegates elsewhere. This is Huckabee country.

Oklahoma (primary)- 41 delegates: Huckabee v McCain
These delegates will be split between Huckabee and McCain. I predict a Huckabee win, as he has held up well against McCain despite the momentum of the Mac. Huckabee wins Oklahoma.

Tennessee (primary)- 55 delegates: McCain v Huckabee
Since Fred left this state wide open, Huckabee and McCain have both polled very well amongst voters. McCain will likely win, but not by much. I call this state a virtual tie between the top two contenders.

Utah (primary)- 36 delegates WTA: Romney (solid)
If there was any doubt here, the doubter was in trouble. Romney will take all the Utah delegates.
West Virginia (convention)- 30 delegates WTA: Huckabee v McCain
McCain will likely win this state, as it liked Rudy early on. Huckabee will do well, though he won't likely spend any money here... Romeny will finish third. Unfortunately for Huckabee and Romney, this is a winner take's all state.

My Super Tuesday state count is as follows:
Huckabee: +7 states: AL, AR, GA, MO, MT, ND, OK
McCain: +11 states: AK, AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MN, NJ, NY, TN, WV
Romney: +3 states: CO, MA, UT
Paul: +0 states:

There are surely some close races, but this is definately a three contender race! After Super Tuesday, Virginia and Maryland vote on Feb 12th. Both states look good for McCain. A week later Washington and Wisconsin will vote, which will go to McCain and Huckabee respectively (if ST goes the way I predicted). Then comes March 4th, with Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island. Huckabee and McCain are battling it out for Texas. Huckabee has led Texas for some time, and will likely win if all goes as above. This is a huge state for Huckabee. Vermont and RI are are McCain wins, hands down.

The way that I see it, where Romney and McCain face off, Romney is not doing so well. Romney has a solid base in his home states, but I cannot see him making up in the polls in all of those states. There are many where he is not even close.

The Convention could still be brokered, even though McCain will go in ahead. Should Romney drop after a poor Super Tuesday showing, it will be McCain and Huckabee, and the ticket will likely be set-up in that order. Should Romney upset McCain in a shocking reversal of fortune on Super Tuesday, The convention will be very close, but brokered nonetheless. Should McCain go in ahead, I do not see him picking Romney as a running mate. The only hope for Romney is a full out win.