Tuesday, January 8, 2008

New Hampshire results... All eyes on Michigan, Nevada, SC

New Hampshire provided expected results for the Republicans (though Fox Pundits appeared shock that their golden boy lost), but the big upset was Clinton over Obama.

Here were my predictions and the actual results:
McCain: 37%...... 37%
Romney: 28%.... 32%
Huckabee: 15%.. 11%
Paul: 10%............ 8%
Rudy: 9%............. 9%
Thompson: 1%.... 1%

Obama: 39%....... 37%
Clinton: 26%....... 39%
Edwards: 24%.... 17%
Richardson: 6%.. 5%
Kucinich: 5%....... 1%

I was pretty on target for the GOP, there was a 4% vote swing in my prediction in Huckabee's favor that I took from Romney... looks like he took it back!

For the Dems, I was right on that the leader would get 39%... i just did not think that was going to be Hilalry. I suppose that the loss in Iowa motivated her base support to get out the vote!

The biggest losers of the NH primary: John Edwards and Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney spent upwards of $20 Million in 2 states, and has lost both of them. He is looking to a victory in Michigan to keep his campaign alive. The small amount of delegates he has picked up so far will be nothing come SC, Florida, and Super Tuesday... He has no momentum, and has been shown back-to-back defeats... It won't be too long before Ann Romney confiscates the checkbook and makes him drop out. Even with a Michigan win, his campaign is seriously in doubt... and he kissed his VP nod goodbye when he started attacking everyone to get on top. Poor form, old chap!

John Edwards' whooping in NH was a big shocker. After a strong showing in Iowa, John was picking up some momentum... Hillary took that out in one blow. The only way that John can look to beat Hilalry is to meet up with Obama and work out some sort of a coalition and VP nod... With both of them in the race, it looks like Hilalry is going to squeak out victory after victory... may have turned out to be a fluke, and with Edwards WAY behind in NH, Obama hanging on, you have to wonder how long Edwards stays in... the longer he does, the more likely that Hillary gets the nod.

What can we expect to see? On the side of the democrats, Obama's loss brings up questions of Hillary's inevitability once again... The pundits will say that Iowa was a fluke, and her support may begin to rise... the Clinton Machine is well funded and well oiled... She may have some fight left in her yet... This was a big night for her campaign... and likely ended John Edwards'.

The GOP will move on to Michigan, where Huckabee will likely beat out Romney. If Romney finishes second, he is finished. If Huckabee finishes second, he has SC and Florida to look forward to. A second place finish in Michigan for Huckabee would surely take the momentum away heading into SC, where he will be challenged by McCain. If McCain takes SC, he likely takes Florida, and will have all the momentum going into Super Tuesday, where he and Rudy will battle it out. There will be a three way tie in delegates between Rudy, McCain, and Huckabee after Super Tuesday, and the brokering begins... likely McCain and Huckabee join up and run on one ticket in 2008. However, if Huckabee takes Michigan and SC, Florida is his to lose, and he is clearly the front-runner going into Super Tuesday. He would likely lead with delegates after S.T. and we would go into brokering, where he will likely ask for McCain's endorsement and run on a Huckabee / McCain ticket. If McCain does not do well due to a SC loss, Huckabee may choose someone like Governor Sarah Palin as a running mate, and they will likely sweep into office in the general election.

Let's hear what happens in the next few days... there will be a dropped bid by Richardson, I am sure...

any thoughts?


  1. Mitt Romney will win Michigan, Huckabee 2nd..

  2. I am not sure that Romney has the steam to take Michigan. McCain won in 2000, Mike Huckabee has been very popular, and based on latest polls, is tied for first in the state with Romney. Before I make a call, I will need to see a few polls coming out of the state... We need to see how back-to-back losses has affected Romney's campaign.

    Thanks for commenting!