First, I must apologize to my readers for my absence. As the secretary to my county party, I am responsible for organizing Caucus... and as such, I have spent the last four days stuffing envelopes and getting the precincts ready for super Tuesday.
As such, I have had a lot of time to think about Michigan, and what Michigan has the potential to do. Earlier, I posted that Michigan was the Alamo for McCain and Romney... either one losing will either stop their momentum or kill their campaign.
McCain has had a huge surge of momentum since NH...
Romney is struggling to stay alive until the Convention...
If Romney wins in Michigan, it will slow McCain's surge, and Huckabee may have a better chance of beating him in SC.
If John McCain wins in Michigan, he will likely continue his surge into SC, and win out... based on the strength of his surge.
Either way, I am still predicting a brokered convention... but McCain and Rudy seem to have traded spots as to who will be the top dog in the split field.
We are hours away from knowing how the day was won... and then let the spin begin!
Respectfully...
ReplyDeleteYou wrote in an earlier post: "Should Mitt Romney take the top spot in Michigan, he and Huckabee will battle it out in SC, where it will likely be Huckabee's last stand."
Given this previous statement and the fact that Huckabee SC shares are not selling at all on Intrades, do you see anything in tonight's modest 3rd-place MI performance (you predicted he would win here, so this has got to be a big disappointment) to turn around his plummeting SC numbers?
Do you see SC as a 3-way race between McCain, Romney, & Thompson (whom you earlier predicted would drop out after the Iowa caucuses)? Do you still think Thompson will have an "embarrassing finish" in SC and withdraw?
After this unexpected turn of events (Huckabee in IA, McCain in NH, now Romney in MI), how big of an opening do you see for Rudy's strategy to pay off?
Do you agree that this race will continue to defy the pundits & the predictions? (http://bendegrow.com/2008/romney-wins-now-what/)