You heard it here first! I predicted Clinton Tactic.

On June 2nd, I wrote an article describing the tactic I believe Clinton was going to use - forcing a brokered convention, and taking the nomination from Obama. FoxNews, yesterday, began showing a video from Hillary where she is now stating to her supporters that she is pushing for an innocent role-call count of supporters in order to show her need to be on the ticket. (Perhaps Obama informed her that she was not his VP pick)

If Clinton gets an actual vote and the first round is undecided (because of unelectability, Super delegates may still decide to switch leaving a contest), the second round frees the delegates to vote however they so choose. If Clinton has enough delegates personally pledged, she can take the convention, and the nomination from Obama.

"The former first lady did not rule out the possibility of having her name
placed into nomination at the convention, being held Aug. 25-28 in Denver. But
she also said no decisions had been made." reports the AP.

Clinton is moving forward with her supporters as a tactic of unity, but the truth is that she is taking advantage of Obama's falling numbers and series of gaffes in recent weeks on the campaign trail. She states that she is organizing the protest to make the vote go smoothly, but you and I both know that she is really hoping for that vote to go in her favor - she denies it, but this tactic was foreseen.

Obama's campaign is beginning to bend under the pressure of the political machine. His overall poll numbers are up, but the most recent polls indicated that an overwhelming majority do not believe that Obama is ready to lead in areas of national security, and there is a virtual tie on areas of economy (a democratic stronghold). These poor numbers this early in the season are Obama's soft underbelly - and it is something he cannot "Hope" his way out of.

Let us suppose that Clinton takes the nomination. The Republican Party has a battle plan to Tackle the Cackle. They are going to hit her hard on her experience, on her health plan, etc. The problem is that Obama was so far left, and has been moving to adopt all of Hillary's positions in the center, that voters may say that Hillary is the acceptable alternative to Obama, instead of McCain who is increasingly being tied to Bush's Third Term. If Clinton does steal the nomination, however, the Obamanites will likely rally around a Green Party candidate as a protest to the Clinton Empire tactic.

How can McCain steady the GOP ship in the case of a Democratic shake-up? Here are my suggestions:
1. Pick a running mate now. Choose Sarah Palin as "the future of the party". She is a young, attractive, energy wise woman with McCain's gusto for anti-corruption in the party. Choosing her now states that the GOP is solid and ready to take on whomever the Dems throw their way. This is a strong move... waiting until our convention is reactionary and a weakness.
2. Adopt Palin's position of drilling in ANWR. McCain needs to let it be known that it is the GOP willing to work on gas prices, while Obama's tactic of Flopping is empty political words with no intention of action (with Pelosi as his leader)
3. Play up the Picken's Plan future of energy - natural gas, and the fact that Palin just succeeded in passing the Trans-Canadian pipeline for natural gas to be delivered to the lower 48 states from Alaska - a key to the future of America's energy!
4. Release a series of TV ads showing that McCain and Palin have been working toward a plan to re-energize the US economy, have won a battle to bring more supplies of energy to the lower US states, and are committed to moving forward on alternative energy not to reach a Utopian oil-free future, but to ensure an America-first energy independence plan.

The key to victory is Energy... that means Palin.

Did Hillary Just Endorse McCain?

It appears that Hillary Clinton's campaign firm has just purchased the domain name HRC2012.com - a site possibly reserved for a 2012 Presidential bid. (Though it may be a parked site for her 2012 NY Senate re-election bid... merely coincidental)

If Hillary is planning for a 2012 bid, is it an attempt to outmaneuver Obama with an "I told you so" to Democrats who will lose the presidency to John McCain... Could she be pulling for an Obama defeat so she can roar back into the primaries in 2012?

I suppose we will have to wait and see... this may be a first... A presidential bid 4+ years in the making.

Keep your eyes on the site:






(ugh)

The End of the Democratic Battle?

After months of unbelievably entertaining, and often all too desperate Primaries, the Democratic contest is officially over tomorrow (June 3rd).

Or is it.

The Democrats need a combined delegate count of 2118 to win the convention.

Barack Hussein Obama has 2076 combined voters and super delegates.

Hillary Rodham Clinton has 1917 combined.

Up for grabs tomorrow:

Montana's 25 combined delegates
South Dakota's 23 combined delegates

Should Obama win 100% of the remaining delegates, he would break the threshold by 6 delegate votes... which is not going to happen. The delegates are split by a percentage of votes won, not winner take all as in the Republican contests.

Which brings into question Michigan and Florida... both Clinton landslides (namely because she campaigned and won there, though the delegates were never going to be seated). Should she decide to seat her allotted delegates from Michigan and Florida, Hillary Clinton could take the Democratic nomination.

If not, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are so close, that a Ron Paul style "coup" at the convention could sway the Obama voters for the second round of voting.

This is where being a delegate gets confusing, and interesting. If, after the first round, there are no clear winners, the delegates are released and able to vote for whomever they so chose. If Clinton was able to stack the delegate crowd who made it to the national convention, and is able to pull off a stalemate prior to convention, she could win the convention by a landslide.

However, this tactic may back-fire in the general election.

As well, if Clinton cashes in her chips, those in the know would have to assume that she doesn't have the political will to lead her party, and as such could never be considered a serious contender in the future.

Clinton's chances for victory have never been so sweet as they are now... make Obama believe that there is no chance of victory... play the delegates HARD... and hope for a second round vote blowout. Clinton has played her cards right 100%. This could be the political story of the century.

Or her flame could flicker out after the June 3rd contests, as she bows her head in submission to Obama.

I suspect that the battle continues through the summer, and the Clinton campaign machine moves forward to the convention, and ensures that every vote is counted... and then changed in her favor.

Clinton Addresses Supporters

When I heard the Hillary Clinton was addressing supporters in West Virginia at 12:30 ET, I thought that we would finally see the Democratic race wrap up, and head into the primaries.

Unfortunately, Clinton is looking for that come from behind win... which, at this point is little more than a pipe dream.

Neither Clinton nor Obama will have the delegates necessary to end this thing prior to the convention... so, with Clinton's claims of victory yesterday, we can look forward to three and a half more months of Democratic bickering... which is fine by me... McCain is working on VP picks, visiting world leaders, and starting to consider transitions from Bush to McCain. He's looking very presidential while the Democrats are stuck in a mudslinging competition that will ne'er be matched.

So, again, the democratic primary remains unchanged...

Democrats Debate - Government the Answer

I was watching the Democratic debates last night, and wanted to share a few comments today.

During the first hour, the theme of the debates was "Integrity" and "Electability". Obama made reference on a few occasions that these topics were distractions, and the real discussion in the campaigns should be "the issues".

The fact that Mr. Obama doesn't seem to think that integrity is an issue MAKES it an issue!

When a candidate for president lies about being fired at and having to run for cover, but then gives a statement that she mis-remembered... well, it has the same integrity of a president asking what the actual definition of "IS" is... There needs to be a new occurrence in US politics: If a politician lies, it should be our duty to reply, "That sir (or ma'am) is a lie!"

Imagine the flashbulbs going off as they try to fix the statement on the spot... I'll tell you what, holding our elected officials accountable to their words is a great way to truly find out who the characters of substance are, versus the trash we see today.

In fact, Obama's lies are worse than Clinton's... Clinton at least knows that she is a liar... Obama believes that he is actually telling the truth. And if you believe it, it must be true... Ask Kucinich about his UFOs.

For instance, Obama should come out and say, simply, that the speech he gave in SF was meant to be heard only by those in the city. He was simply trying to tell the city folks that he believes they are living a better life for deciding to live blissfully in dense urban areas... meanwhile, he believes that those who live a rural lifestyle are bitter and angry that our lives do not amount to that of the city-folk... and as such, we cling to the bare-bone, knuckle-dragging basics of sentient beings: religion and guns. If he told the truth, THAT is what it would sound like.

Unfortunately, there is not an honest or moral bone between the two of them... IMHO.

The common theme in the second hour was that "government is not doing enough to make life better". Government is the answer. There is no way that the people can be trusted to improve their own lives... the government needs to step in and help.

I saw a great sign in front of a church last weekend, which read: God does not promise a smooth flight, just a soft landing.

That is wisdom! The trials and tribulations of day-to-day living ARE life! As people of high moral fiber, we should take the challenge of the storm and sail on, learning the lay of the land, and becoming wiser as we fail and try again.

But to be at a point where you can no longer stomach the fight, and you beg for mercy from government, you are no longer a citizen... you are a subject.

A citizen tells the government how it is going to be.

A subject is told by the government how it is.

To expect the government, an entity that is fastly becoming uncontrollable, to be the savior of the people is the suicide of liberty.

Hillary Clinton and Barry Obama both stated last night that the answer to the woes of the country is bigger government. Economic crisis - More government regulation and intervention. Fuel prices - more government regulation and intervention. Mortgage issues - more government regulation and intervention. Higher Taxes, more government social programs... rob from the rich to house, clothe, educate, feed, bathe, enrich the poor... Give to those in need from those who have the ability. The very basic principle of Socialism.

The summary of the debate: We cannot, as Conservative Americans, stand by and let one of these two Socialists step a foot inside the White House.

Democrat's disarray not as bad as Conservative blockade

Clinton is in the fight for her political life. Should she lose to Obama she will have little chance of ever running another successful campaign for the White House. This is her one and only shot... all eggs in the basket. And Obama knows it. He knows it, and he is loving every minute of his trouncing of the Clinton Machine.

Should Obama lose the nomination, either by votes or by super delegates, he has just cause to run again. He is a first term Senator, youthful, and inspirational. The party knows this.

They also know that they are watching their party devour itself. The polarizing Clinton is polarizing the Democrats as much as she would the country. Obama is picking up supporters from the Clinton campa dn the undecideds... and Clinton is about to take a major nose dive.

The perfect storm for Republicans?

I think not.

Democrats are so motivated to support whomever their nominee is... the rest is just liberal drama.

I have yet to hear any Democrat say "If Obama wins the nomination I am voting for McCain"

I have yet to hear any Democrat say "If Clinton wins, I just wont vote"

Their party is enjoying the bloodbath, but it has all the intention to rally behind their nominee, whomever that may be.

Enter the Conservative blockade. The very blockade that is bringing us the "I'll never vote for McCain" naysayers... or the "I just wont vote" group.

Granted, I am watching McCain very carefully as he continues his race, and especially as he selects a VP. But as long as McCain picks a good solid conservative like Palin or Huckabee, I will have no problem holding my nose at the poll. In fact, I could honestly say that I would still be voting FOR conservative values...

I am still pulling for a brokered convention... but should McCain win before hand, and should he select a suitable running mate, I do not see the problem.

With Democrats amped to end the era of Bush, and likely to rally behind any candidate promising leadership for their party, they are going to swarm the booths on election day, and if they out-swarm the GOP as the conservative block promises to protest... we can expect 4 years of Clinton or Obama.

To come later: What would a Clinton or Obama White House look like for America?

The Super Tuesday Hangover

Forget the Monday morning after Super Bowl hangover... this is the Wednesday morning after Super Duper Tuesday hangover! Though I would say that it is less of a hangover, and more of a bloggers buffet! There are so many stories to discuss, it is hard to know where to start.

We could discuss the Clinton Spin. How she won only 8 of 22 states up for grabs in the Democratic Campaign, though claimed that because she carried New York and California that she won the day! Let me put it this way, Hillary: You lost big time, yesterday! You lost Middle America in a HUGE way. And if you can't carry those states in the primary, you clearly have no chance of swinging those states from red to blue! And I want to mention the numbers: Where Obama won, he won by HUGE margins. Where Clinton won, she eeked out a victory over Obama. That is very telling that Clinton is in very serious trouble.

Next, we could discuss the Republican strategy. If Clinton is in as much trouble as we could imagine, the GOP strategy is in shambles. Dick Wadhams, Colorado State Party Chair for the GOP, has declared that his plan to retake the state is to make Hillary a monkey on the back of everyone running at the lower level on the ticket. But without Hillary at the top of the ticket, could the GOP be in trouble?

What about Obama's stirring speech, and the trouble it could bring for the GOP. A pundit said it best last night on CNN... "it is easy to beat a man, but near impossible to beat a movement". The very movement that is undoing the Clinton inevitability is a danger to the GOP.

It is necessary to discuss the tactics of the conservative talking heads. Out of one side of their mouth they decry the Huckabee campaign of dirty politicking with push polling, while at the same time, and to national audiences no less, they were using fear tactics of "a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain" while challenging callers on the national stage who where Huckabee supporters... They also went as far as to declare Huckabee's campaign an insurgency campaign, directly accusing anyone who supports Huckabee as being a terrorist! There is not an American, or human for that matter, alive who does not make the following association: Insurgent = Terrorist. It's the war, stupid! Such actions are repulsive, and hypocritical.

What about discussing the news desk's reaction to the GOP race. Very strong statements like: Tonight’s biggest loser is clearly Romney; We were wrong, this is clearly a three man race; Is McCain the breakaway nominee for the GOP?

• Romney was a big loser yesterday. In every state that was actively challenged, he lost. He outspent, but was outvoted. This is sending shockwaves through the campaign, and through the pro-Romney pundits. Bill Bennett exclaimed this morning: Romney is the right guy, I don't know why America is not getting our message. Dr Bennett, perhaps it is the candidate, perhaps the message, perhaps even the tactics. The American people wholly rejected your talking points, and Romney suffered in this contest.
  
• I told you some time ago that this was a three man race. Huckabee is the true and consistent conservative on issues like 2nd amendment, life, marriage, and 10th amendment. There is something to be said for a consistent record... and Huckabee is a clear choice, not just a way to vote against Romney... it is a vote FOR these conservative principles. This is, and will continue to be a three man race to the finish.
  
• McCain is going to be hard to catch at this point. The best we can hope for now is a Howard Dean yell... There are some big contests coming up. Texas, where Huckabee had been strong until after SC. Perhaps yesterday can provide a Huckabounce to stop McCain in Texas. Washington state, which is a MCCain stronghold, may be up for grabs if other campaigns can spend some time and money there. McCain is not a lock for the GOP, but he is clearly and undeniably the front-runner.

Today is a great day for political junkies! There are headlines abound. What we need to look for is what stories the press go with, what spin they apply, and which candidates they are favoring or crutching. Stories are abound... like I said, a blogger's buffet!

Hillary Clinton No Friend to Natives - Defiles Memory of Genocide Victims in US

Hillary Clinton, in her victory speech in Nevada, made a remark that struck me at my very core. To a group of cheering campaigners, she exclaimed: "This is how the West was won"

Perhaps Hillary Clinton, in all of her re-education, had forgotten that the West was won by a series of broken treaties with Natives, the mass murder of sometimes entire Native tribes including women and children... all under the order of the US Congress and the Presidents of the United States at the time.

A great example:

Hillary. The west was won by murder, thievery, and unconstitutional placement of Natives into "reservations" that have become breeding grounds for sickness, poverty, lack of education, and lack of a means to survive outside of US handouts (and still maintain their original way of life should they so desire).

Hillary - Your lack of sensitivity toward the genocide and bloodshed that occurred while the West was being taken is shocking. As a descendant of Natives, I demand an apology and an explanation for your hostility toward the Native Peoples of this Land!

I would love to hear you tell the Lakota to drop dead... that they lost their land at the hand of US invaders... Say it... please... you are so close!

Attempting to Undo NH's Fumble

Iowa, for Obama, was the 70 yard field goal... the miracle moment, where an unlikely candidate overturned the foreboding monster of the Clinton Campaign. The media revelled... even those within her party revelled... it was the beginning of the end for the Clinton Dynasty.

And then something happened in NH. Was it the tearful plea for support, which drove women to vote for her in numbers unseen in Iowa... or those same tears that drove the men to ditch the Democratic ticket all together and support McCain. Either way, there was a fumble... where early polls showed Obama leading the state by 10 points easily, then going on to lose by 3.

Alas... in protesting style (and two days too late), John Kerry has decided to support and endorse Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination.

This is a direct slap in the face of both John Edwards, his 2004 running mate, and Hillary Clinton, the Dynasty Diva.

His endorsement is one of supporting a candidate capable of "Transformational Change" in the United States, where Clinton's vision of change is simply to change BACK to the Clinton years... as can be seen by her appearances with Madeline Albright, and the recent re-hiring of Bill's campaign strategists and presidential advisers... one can see that the change she suggests is nothing more than a change back to 1992.

As well, Bill Richardson is exiting stage left. If he were to endorse Obama, it would be another hit to the Clinton campaign... and another loud statement that the party does not support the Clinton Dynasty.

Now the focus is on John Edwards. If he continues to pull in embarrassingly low numbers, what he is doing is splitting the vote of the OTH (Other Than Hillary) crowd, and offering her the nomination. If he truly believes what he says, he should consider endorsing Obama and making the deal for the VP nod. Barack and John united will pull in 50% - 60% of the votes in each state, leaving Clinton's 30% - 35% support base out of the big show. The longer that Edwards hangs on, the more I have to wonder if he is not a Clinton operative, in the race to ensure her candidacy...

New Hampshire results... All eyes on Michigan, Nevada, SC

New Hampshire provided expected results for the Republicans (though Fox Pundits appeared shock that their golden boy lost), but the big upset was Clinton over Obama.

Here were my predictions and the actual results:
GOP:
McCain: 37%...... 37%
Romney: 28%.... 32%
Huckabee: 15%.. 11%
Paul: 10%............ 8%
Rudy: 9%............. 9%
Thompson: 1%.... 1%

Dems:
Obama: 39%....... 37%
Clinton: 26%....... 39%
Edwards: 24%.... 17%
Richardson: 6%.. 5%
Kucinich: 5%....... 1%

I was pretty on target for the GOP, there was a 4% vote swing in my prediction in Huckabee's favor that I took from Romney... looks like he took it back!

For the Dems, I was right on that the leader would get 39%... i just did not think that was going to be Hilalry. I suppose that the loss in Iowa motivated her base support to get out the vote!

The biggest losers of the NH primary: John Edwards and Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney spent upwards of $20 Million in 2 states, and has lost both of them. He is looking to a victory in Michigan to keep his campaign alive. The small amount of delegates he has picked up so far will be nothing come SC, Florida, and Super Tuesday... He has no momentum, and has been shown back-to-back defeats... It won't be too long before Ann Romney confiscates the checkbook and makes him drop out. Even with a Michigan win, his campaign is seriously in doubt... and he kissed his VP nod goodbye when he started attacking everyone to get on top. Poor form, old chap!

John Edwards' whooping in NH was a big shocker. After a strong showing in Iowa, John was picking up some momentum... Hillary took that out in one blow. The only way that John can look to beat Hilalry is to meet up with Obama and work out some sort of a coalition and VP nod... With both of them in the race, it looks like Hilalry is going to squeak out victory after victory... may have turned out to be a fluke, and with Edwards WAY behind in NH, Obama hanging on, you have to wonder how long Edwards stays in... the longer he does, the more likely that Hillary gets the nod.

What can we expect to see? On the side of the democrats, Obama's loss brings up questions of Hillary's inevitability once again... The pundits will say that Iowa was a fluke, and her support may begin to rise... the Clinton Machine is well funded and well oiled... She may have some fight left in her yet... This was a big night for her campaign... and likely ended John Edwards'.

The GOP will move on to Michigan, where Huckabee will likely beat out Romney. If Romney finishes second, he is finished. If Huckabee finishes second, he has SC and Florida to look forward to. A second place finish in Michigan for Huckabee would surely take the momentum away heading into SC, where he will be challenged by McCain. If McCain takes SC, he likely takes Florida, and will have all the momentum going into Super Tuesday, where he and Rudy will battle it out. There will be a three way tie in delegates between Rudy, McCain, and Huckabee after Super Tuesday, and the brokering begins... likely McCain and Huckabee join up and run on one ticket in 2008. However, if Huckabee takes Michigan and SC, Florida is his to lose, and he is clearly the front-runner going into Super Tuesday. He would likely lead with delegates after S.T. and we would go into brokering, where he will likely ask for McCain's endorsement and run on a Huckabee / McCain ticket. If McCain does not do well due to a SC loss, Huckabee may choose someone like Governor Sarah Palin as a running mate, and they will likely sweep into office in the general election.

Let's hear what happens in the next few days... there will be a dropped bid by Richardson, I am sure...

any thoughts?