New Hampshire results... All eyes on Michigan, Nevada, SC

New Hampshire provided expected results for the Republicans (though Fox Pundits appeared shock that their golden boy lost), but the big upset was Clinton over Obama.

Here were my predictions and the actual results:
GOP:
McCain: 37%...... 37%
Romney: 28%.... 32%
Huckabee: 15%.. 11%
Paul: 10%............ 8%
Rudy: 9%............. 9%
Thompson: 1%.... 1%

Dems:
Obama: 39%....... 37%
Clinton: 26%....... 39%
Edwards: 24%.... 17%
Richardson: 6%.. 5%
Kucinich: 5%....... 1%

I was pretty on target for the GOP, there was a 4% vote swing in my prediction in Huckabee's favor that I took from Romney... looks like he took it back!

For the Dems, I was right on that the leader would get 39%... i just did not think that was going to be Hilalry. I suppose that the loss in Iowa motivated her base support to get out the vote!

The biggest losers of the NH primary: John Edwards and Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney spent upwards of $20 Million in 2 states, and has lost both of them. He is looking to a victory in Michigan to keep his campaign alive. The small amount of delegates he has picked up so far will be nothing come SC, Florida, and Super Tuesday... He has no momentum, and has been shown back-to-back defeats... It won't be too long before Ann Romney confiscates the checkbook and makes him drop out. Even with a Michigan win, his campaign is seriously in doubt... and he kissed his VP nod goodbye when he started attacking everyone to get on top. Poor form, old chap!

John Edwards' whooping in NH was a big shocker. After a strong showing in Iowa, John was picking up some momentum... Hillary took that out in one blow. The only way that John can look to beat Hilalry is to meet up with Obama and work out some sort of a coalition and VP nod... With both of them in the race, it looks like Hilalry is going to squeak out victory after victory... may have turned out to be a fluke, and with Edwards WAY behind in NH, Obama hanging on, you have to wonder how long Edwards stays in... the longer he does, the more likely that Hillary gets the nod.

What can we expect to see? On the side of the democrats, Obama's loss brings up questions of Hillary's inevitability once again... The pundits will say that Iowa was a fluke, and her support may begin to rise... the Clinton Machine is well funded and well oiled... She may have some fight left in her yet... This was a big night for her campaign... and likely ended John Edwards'.

The GOP will move on to Michigan, where Huckabee will likely beat out Romney. If Romney finishes second, he is finished. If Huckabee finishes second, he has SC and Florida to look forward to. A second place finish in Michigan for Huckabee would surely take the momentum away heading into SC, where he will be challenged by McCain. If McCain takes SC, he likely takes Florida, and will have all the momentum going into Super Tuesday, where he and Rudy will battle it out. There will be a three way tie in delegates between Rudy, McCain, and Huckabee after Super Tuesday, and the brokering begins... likely McCain and Huckabee join up and run on one ticket in 2008. However, if Huckabee takes Michigan and SC, Florida is his to lose, and he is clearly the front-runner going into Super Tuesday. He would likely lead with delegates after S.T. and we would go into brokering, where he will likely ask for McCain's endorsement and run on a Huckabee / McCain ticket. If McCain does not do well due to a SC loss, Huckabee may choose someone like Governor Sarah Palin as a running mate, and they will likely sweep into office in the general election.

Let's hear what happens in the next few days... there will be a dropped bid by Richardson, I am sure...

any thoughts?

Predictions for the NH Primary

Real Clear Politics is showing a new trend after the Iowa Caucus, and in anticipation of the New Hampshire Caucus: Mike Huckabee and John McCain are surging nationally, while Rudy Giuliani (who is seeing his lowest numbers of the race) and Mitt Romney are free-falling. In fact, the latest polls show a three way tie for first: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee... but unfortunately for Rudy, his numbers are falling and it will not be too long before his campaign is through... At this rate, I doubt that he will make it to Super Tuesday in one piece... so it looks like his "Go Big or Go Home" approach to delegates (focusing only on the Super Tuesday states) has failed... or is in the midst of failing.

But what about taking a look at New Hampshire? How is tomorrow going to play out? The debates showed that there are four candidates in this race nationally: McCain, Huckabee, Rudy, and Romney. Thompson will likely not register in these polls, and may hold out for South Carolina... but after an embarrassing finish there, he will withdraw.

I call NH this way for the Republicans:
McCain: 37%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 10%
Rudy: 9%
Thompson: 1%

NH Dems:
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 24%
Richardson: 6%
Kucinich: 5%

On the Republican side, the poor 2nd place showing will be a second blow to the already critically wounded (post Iowa) Romney Campaign. After a 2nd place finish in NH, Michigan wont much matter, and there are no other states where Romney is polling in first besides Utah (and perhaps MA, but I don't know... the last poll was from April of 2007).

Fred Thompson is not expecting anything out of NH, and only showed up in the state for the debates, then it was off to SC where he is facing a 2:1 deficit to Mike Huckabee, who leads the state. After a fourth place finish (to Huckabee, McCain, and Mitt or Rudy)... perhaps a 3rd place finish if Mitt and Rudy continue to slip, Fred will give a speech along the lines of: "Well... we gave it a good run... but it looks like it wasn't meant to be... so I will be withdrawing my campaign from the race, and endorsing John McCain"

John McCain will get a huge boost from an overwhelming win in NH. This boost will likely propel him to a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Michigan, and make him a contender (likely finishing 2nd) in SC. This will give him some momentum going into Super Tuesday. I say SOME because he will not do well in Florida, so there will be one loss just days before Super Tuesday.

Mike Huckabee's convincing 3rd place finish will reignite the huckaboom, and add to his momentum from Iowa. He will likely go on to win in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida... giving him the big Mo' heading into Super Tuesday. This is going to be a Huckabee McCain race to the finish.

Rudy's gamble of waiting for Super Tuesday did not pay off. He will have no momentum going into Florida, and likely finish second to Huckabee. This blow will lead to a lackluster performance on Super Tuesday. Rudy will likely hold out for the National Convention, hoping to win over some delegates as Romney and Thompson drop out of the race.

Ron Paul will make his last stand in NH. This is the only state where he would have had a chance to come out on top, with the support of the Independent voters. However, a 4th place finish will leave his campaign with no momentum... plenty of cash, but no momentum. I doubt that he runs as a Libertarian, but if he did, this could put the Libertarian party on the map, giving the Green party a run for it's money as the only viable third party. This would be optimal if Bloomberg also ran as an independent. We would see a four way race, where the Democrats are hit by the Independent Bloomberg, and the Independents are hit by the Libertarians, and the Republicans are hit by losing Independent voters to some degree... It would make it the most interesting election in recent history!

On the democratic side... if Obama pulls off another upset, as I predict, the Clinton campaign will be finished. Edwards will surge into first or second as Clinton's numbers plummet. The nomination will likely go to Edwards or Obama (in that order) after Super Tuesday clears Clinton off into a third place shocker. She will likely drop out and endorse Obama, but her voters will be split between Edwards and Obama... then it is a delegate war for who can cross the threshold first.

*Note, these predictions are subject to change assuming I am completely wrong and NH goes a totally different way.

Taxes, and tax code changes

With Mike Huckabee forcing the GOP contenders to no longer be considered "top tier", rather "top-five" contenders, it is also bring more discussion about the Fair Tax. Now, I must admit that I am a bit of a fan of the Fair Tax, which is why it upsets me when I hear folks like Romney insist time and again that the Fair Tax would mean a 33% national sales tax, and how it would hurt the retired folks who no longer pay income taxes... Let's stop the political dribble, and discuss real tax reform.

For starters, the Fair Tax will require no more than a 22% National Sales tax. This will be stand alone, no income tax at a national level. The lower rates will still fund the federal government for a few simple reasons:

1. Elimination of defunct government programs/departments/programs


2. The hidden taxes currently built into the current price system will go away - the prices will have to drop as consumers will be outraged to see a corporate profit increase of unreasonable amounts


3. We no longer will have to subsidise those failing to pay income tax. This is a system where more people will be paying into it, so the rates are lower with the same results

The tax code is currently so complicated, with loopholes, tax breaks, multiple taxes... for instance, if you overpay your taxes and your tax write-offs exceed $10,000, the money that was taxed once and then returned to you is taxed a second time the following year as income. There is a tax on savings, tax on dying, even a tax on selling your home too soon... Every aspect of our current tax code suggests that the government wants to penalize growth and innovation.

Imagine a tax system that would either eliminate the entire tax system, levying a one-time tax of 20-30% on income, or a tax system that has a 0% income tax and 22% sales tax. No loopholes, no tricks, no special deductions. Everyone pays tax one time on the same dollar.

The CATO institute suggest a flat income tax, eliminating all other tax loopholes. They suggest a maximum tax rate of 20% for maximum economic advantage. In time, this tax rate will provide economic growth rates upwards of 7-10%. Similar results would be seen with a Fair Tax, but the Fair tax has one HUGE obstacle: the Constitution.

During the era of the new deal, there was a tricky little amendment to the constitution that allowed the federal government to collect an income tax. The Fair Tax will never succeed unless we have a constitutional amendment to repeal the federal income tax, and replace it with a sales tax... furthermore, it would be almost necessary to constitutionally ban a federal income tax to ensure that the government does not hit us with BOTH! This is the reason that the CATO institute has chosen not to endorse the Fair Tax... the means to achieve the intended purpose are too great.

So as we move forward with the Presidential nomination process, we need to listen very closely to those with the biggest ideas on taxes. Senators Obama and Clinton have promised to increase tax rates to those of the 1990's... That is upwards of 40% plus multiple taxes. The only effect of taxes this high are stifled economic growth, higher unemployment rates, and lower disposable income in the hands of the citizens (and thus a lower quality of life).

Who is your candidate of choice when it comes to taxes? How will they best spend my money? And how will they ensure that my money stays in my pockets, not their coffers?

Could the 2008 Dem nominee STILL be Al Gore?

"And the nominee is..."

The crowd hushes, Hillary is smiling in the wings... Obama is pacing the in the pews...

"Al Gore..."

A buzz instantly fills the room... was Al Gore even in the race? Hillary can be seen, red faced, yelling at her campaign manager... Obama is in tears as he thinks of all the political leaders he wont get the chance to insult.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

This is not an actual situation, but an enactment of what could be the case during the Democratic Convention next year.

WHY? You ask... Well, The speculation of an Al Gore entry into the race is still afloat... and even Rasmussen, the most trusted name in polling, is predicting that regardless of the Clinton/Obama buzz, that the Democrats are going to pick a white male for their nominee. That leaves John Edwards and Al Gore.

What is better... Al Gore, without campaigning, is winning straw polls... The latest was the Scottsdale District 8 Straw Poll... It is no Ames, but voters had to pay $20 to cast a vote... and Gore walked away with the big win. He also came in second place to Edwards in the "popularity" vote. Clinton, Obama, and very far behind Richardson don't seem to have the support of the Central Arizona democrats... The same three don't really have the support in the Midwest, either... It is Edwards sweeping the middle-America crowds... which only means that if Al Gore enters the race, he will be the Democratic entity able to shake the Clinton foundation.

Speculation was that Gore would enter the race during the "save the earth" concert... but he didn't... With high numbers, high popularity, and the Democratic party secretly looking for the White Male candidate, the choice is Edwards or Gore. Recent speculation is that if gore's popularity and numbers continue to rise in the wake of the Draft Gore movement, December will be the kick-off of the Gore2008 campaign.

With political rivalries sizing up a Clinton nomination, throwing Al Gore into the mix could ruin the GOP strategy... (if I can figure out what that is, I will let you know). Remember, the GOP is planning to play the 51% "Definitely Will Not Vote Clinton" card VERY hard for the independents, as well as some of the Dems likely to jump ship. I know a few Dems who are in that category, and I don't blame them. There is a constant buzz in my community: "Anyone but Clinton"... and I think America Agrees.

So Al Gore... it looks like you may be getting the nomination after all...

GOP Candidates, be prepared for the shocker... just in case. Everyone else, keep your eyes on Florida!

God Bless.

Democrats Debate... YouTube Style...

Last night, America watched as the much hyped CNN/YouTube debate unfolded... The first 5 minutes were used to discuss which videos were not chosen, and why, what the format was supposed to be, and to once again claim the debate's innovative nature.

I took notes during the entire debate... what was the question, who answered, and did I consider it a positive or a negative response (not down political lines, but rather in the candidates body language, knowledge of the topic, and comfort in talking "face to face" with the everyday American)

I am not going to go through my notes line by line, but I am going to hit a few highlights...

Anderson Cooper, the moderator, is OBVIOUSLY an Obama supporter. Cooper would direct general questions to the candidates, and for the first 35 minutes, Obama fielded twice as many questions as Hillary or Edwards... Mike Gravel fielded one question in the first 35 minute segment, and stopped the debate to complain about it... Cooper gave him more time later on... It took Cooper 20 minutes to FINALLY ask Bill Richardson a question... By that time Obama had answered three... In short, Cooper needs to determine a better way to distribute the questions... though by the third segment, he gave all the candidates 3-4 questions evenly... so he found his rhythm...

The questions covered the main-stream issues... but there were a few "dinner table" questions, and definitely a more personalized way of asking some of the mainstream questions... I appreciated the human-factor... as opposed to the Wolf Blitzer Robotic debate, where if you don't answer correctly Wolf will keep grilling you until you answer his question his way (like he did to Huckabee on creationism)... There were awkward moments like the candidates fielding question from snowmen... but in all, the idea was to keep the questions in a very YouTube-esque manner... It worked.

The winners? John Edwards did a great job challenging Obama and Clinton, and I think showed his compassion towards women's issues... and definitely out shined Clinton on the women's issues question. Gravel angrily came out against Clinton and Obama, using what little time he has left on the stage to make some deep wounds... and Biden almost made it into this category, right up until the end...

The losers? Biden... he had a lot of momentum, until he called the gun owner a mental wack-job just because he referred to his AR-15 as "his baby"... he even went as far as saying that the video submitter was most likely not mentally capable of owning his weapon, and suggested that he may be a danger to society... Mr Biden... The only danger is you, my friend. Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson really needed to break out, and they didn't. This may be the last debate with them in it. Richardson has one of the best messages on Energy Independence, but he just can't seem to be "interesting". Clinton yells... a lot! And it is really hard to think that she is a compassionate person when all she does is yell... strike-out in my book... Dennis Kucinch needed to shine, and this was supposed to be his format... he did alright, but it was just shy of being put in the winner's block... and the loserest loser of all the losers... Barack Hussein Obama... in any given answer there were 15-20 "Umm", "Uh", and other fumbles as he looked for the right thing... his inexperience was in full swing, and though his answers may have been on message, they lacked the ease and intelligence that our next president needs to have.

If I had to call it, I would say that we are looking at the fall of Clinton/Obama, and the rise of Edwards/Biden (but Biden needs to make ammends with the gun-owners of the world)... Perhaps Richardson is going to be a VP pick... so we may see Edwards/Richardson as the democratic ticket for the general election...

Though my question was not picked, the very first question was mine but asked by someone else... I am going to focus on submitting a few perfect videos for the Republican CNN/YouTube debate in September... Hopefully Huckabee is still in the running, and gaining more momentum!

God Bless!