Thursday, January 3, 2008

Iowa Caucus Predictions

Hat-tip to Ben Degrow for the link.

M.E. Sprengelmeyer of the Rocky Mountain News is hosting a CONTEST to see who can most accurately predict the outcome, and fall-out from the Iowa Caucus. Visit his blog and submit your predictions BEFORE 5PM Central Time to be considered.

Also, I would like to know how my readers think this thing will go, so leave a comment with your predictions. Mine are as follows:


Edwards - 32%
Obama - 29%
Clinton - 23%
Richardson - 8%
Biden - 6%
Kucinich - 1%
Dodd - 1%
Gravel - 0%

*Dodd and Gravel will drop race


Huckabee - 32%
Romney - 28%
McCain - 15% (Thompson supporters will jump over)
Paul - 13%
Thompson - 8% (his announcement to drop hurt him) *note, Thompson camp is currently denying this announcement
Giuliani - 4%

*Thompson to drop race


  1. Thompson most certainly has NOT "announced" he will be dropping out of the race, not now and not if he does poorly in Iowa. That was a disinformation story put out this morning, one he and his campaign chairman refuted.

    That's not to say it won't happen, but that "announcement" never happened.

  2. The "announcement" to which I was referring came from, and at the time had not been refutiated by the Thompson campaign. However, I feel that the cat was let out of the bag, and the announcement that Thompson made this morning was to save face until after Iowa. If Thompson, the saviour of the race, has a 4th or 5th place finish, especially if he loses to Paul, he will surely drop before NH because he is polling so poorly there. As such, he would have no momementum going into Michigan, SC, or Florida, where he trails in the polls... so that would put him into Super Tuesday in the back of the pack, with little hope of surviving. A wise man would see this trend and drop out gracefully, hoping for a VP nod or a cabinet post.

    But you are right. Thompson's camp is currently denying that report.

    Thanks for keeping me honest!