Washingtonians have cast their votes, and the results are about what one could expect. The Senate race saw Democrat incumbent Murray pulling in considerably less than the 50% needed for victory in November, Dino Rossi (the establishment backed GOP Candidate) grabbing the majority of the Republican votes, and the Tea Party candidates and "also ran" candidates pulling in about 12% at the highest (Clint Didier). With Washington State's 'top two' primary, Murray and Rossi will be the sole names on the ballot for US Senate in Washington state - the top of the 2010 ticket.
WA State voter turnout for the primary was an embarrassing 26%... Iraqi's are facing mortars and shells in order to get the purple finger at rates upward of 80%... yet the country who is dictating their democracy cannot even find 15 minutes to cast their 'all mail-in' ballot. I think the voters here simply do not care anymore... I polled 4 guys with whom I work, all of whom are vocal political commentators at work - yet two of them failed to vote - one said he simply had no opinion about any candidate.
That being said, Rossi, a long time Republican from the Washington State old hats, a centrist Republican (like Scott Brown) will be leading the conservative charge in WA State. In fact, Tea Party candidates did not fare too well here in the Evergreen state... the reason? Political organizing is dismal in this state - last minute notifications, no political dialogue, no forum for debate... you name it, WA state is the land of apathy, not opportunity - for most. What we are faced with is a minority class of active voters trying to push the rope on the other 75% of the state registered voters.
You can lead a politician to Washington, but you can't stop him from spending, right?
We all have the right to vote, yet we continually see a vast majority of our fellow citizens who refuse to lay claim to that right. I am no political scientist, but my best guess has something to do with the 7 minute attention span, the commercialism of our society, and the absolute distraction in all avenues of our existence. With a constant barrage of advertising, reality TV, and the like, it is no wonder that by the time campaign season comes around we couldn't care less (technically 'they' couldn't care less... I couldn't care more!!!) Why worry about voting once for a Senator, I can text the word 'VOTE' to 64752 as many times as I want for my favorite dancer or singer - standard texting rates apply. We have prioritized the important aspects of our free society right out of our lives... and the result is, well, my monologue from above.
Moving forward, onward to November, it is our duty as the active and thinking branch of the voting citizenry to approach our candidates... Force them into dialogue, press the issues... make sure that they understand that just because everyone else has been scrubbed from the ballot in November does not excuse them from public scrutiny from disenchanted members of their own party. We still have the power to shape the debate. We still have the power to reign in our 'establishment' candidates. We still have a voice, a right, a duty to be an active member of this society, and of this government. We are the FIRST PILLAR of the government... WE THE PEOPLE. So easily we forget...
Let us not forget that 2010 is not simply about a transfer of power between party's... it is about a correction to the wrongs committed against the people of this nation, and the contract between WE and the Govt. 2010, and every election henceforth should be an education on the limited power granted to the government BY the people. It should be a reaffirmation of truth and liberty. It should be the final word of the people... that Liberty will always undo tyranny... That the people do take notice... That we choose to be free...
It is my fear, that 75% of the people will not hear this message.
Liberty is obvious to those who can see it... libertas ad oculos!
Showing posts with label Primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Primary. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
CO - CD6: Where were the votes?
With 100% of precincts reporting in Douglas County, the results of CD-6 are clear - voters did not turn out! Douglas County is home to about 61,000 registered Republican voters - all of whom should have been well informed that August 12th was an election day (else we in the county party are not doing our job). Yet the results of Douglas County, shown on the County Clerk and Recorder's website, indicates that the actual voter turnout was closer to 25,000 Republicans. That is an embarrassing 40% voter turnout by Republicans in my county.
It would not be so embarrassing, considering that usual voter turnout county wide is no more than 22,000 (R and D), if voters better understood that in this area Republican Primary races are the general election. What is even worse is that 53,000 mail-in ballots were sent out, and total voter turnout in the county was under 35,000. Assuming all votes were mail-in, there is a 20,000 vote gap in Douglas County. I voted in a booth yesterday morning, so we can most likely assume that a majority of mail-in ballots (paid for by taxpayer dollars) ended up untouched on the kitchen counter, or worse, in the trash.
What is the source of complacency in American Voting? Now that Americans have the right to vote, why do 60-70% of us choose not to vote? Is there a sense of non-urgency that surrounds primary elections?
This also begs a few more questions:
1. Do we want everyone voting?
2. What is the deal with the Assembly Candidates?
To answer the first question, I simply state thusly: Ideals do not win elections, votes do. This means that he who gets the votes gets the victory. So it is up to the candidates to inspire voters to the polls - be it by leadership, vision, or even promises of handing out money from the treasury of private individuals and corporations (via windfall profit taxes). It is the responsibility of the voter to educate themselves, so they are making educated decisions at the voting booth (or on the absentee ballot). So though everyone should be voting, perhaps it is better that those uninformed are not taking part in these freedoms. However, this brings me back to the complacency argument - what drives 60-70% of the US to not care enough to arm themselves with education and use their knowledge to vote?
Secondly, I had discussed this in July - whether or not the Colorado Assembly process was worth the investment. In CD-6, two candidates petitioned onto the primary ballot, while three went through the assembly process (one did not make the 10% required to petition on to the Primary ballot from the Assembly). The two assembly candidates, Ted Harvey and Steve Ward, put in a large amount of effort with the delegates, whipping up a lot of support during the assembly time frame - but neither inspired beyond the assembly - leaving the CD6 seat, yet again, taken by a petition candidate (Tancredo was also a petition candidate). The county party invests a large amount of money into the assembly process to nominate a candidate that the party leadership (including delegates and district/precinct captains) should rally behind... however, there is a trend that the CD6 assembly is not in tune with the CD6 voters.
Should the county partys consider refusing to fund the assembly, in favor of an all petition primary for higher level offices? Absolutely - especially if this is a trend that is going to continue.
I digress. The point at hand is that the primary election has come and gone, our party nominees have been selected, and it is now our goal to turn out the Republican vote on November 4th... and turn out the Democratic vote on November 5th :)
Monday, June 2, 2008
The End of the Democratic Battle?
After months of unbelievably entertaining, and often all too desperate Primaries, the Democratic contest is officially over tomorrow (June 3rd).
Or is it.
The Democrats need a combined delegate count of 2118 to win the convention.
Barack Hussein Obama has 2076 combined voters and super delegates.
Hillary Rodham Clinton has 1917 combined.
Up for grabs tomorrow:
Montana's 25 combined delegates
South Dakota's 23 combined delegates
Should Obama win 100% of the remaining delegates, he would break the threshold by 6 delegate votes... which is not going to happen. The delegates are split by a percentage of votes won, not winner take all as in the Republican contests.
Which brings into question Michigan and Florida... both Clinton landslides (namely because she campaigned and won there, though the delegates were never going to be seated). Should she decide to seat her allotted delegates from Michigan and Florida, Hillary Clinton could take the Democratic nomination.
If not, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are so close, that a Ron Paul style "coup" at the convention could sway the Obama voters for the second round of voting.
This is where being a delegate gets confusing, and interesting. If, after the first round, there are no clear winners, the delegates are released and able to vote for whomever they so chose. If Clinton was able to stack the delegate crowd who made it to the national convention, and is able to pull off a stalemate prior to convention, she could win the convention by a landslide.
However, this tactic may back-fire in the general election.
As well, if Clinton cashes in her chips, those in the know would have to assume that she doesn't have the political will to lead her party, and as such could never be considered a serious contender in the future.
Clinton's chances for victory have never been so sweet as they are now... make Obama believe that there is no chance of victory... play the delegates HARD... and hope for a second round vote blowout. Clinton has played her cards right 100%. This could be the political story of the century.
Or her flame could flicker out after the June 3rd contests, as she bows her head in submission to Obama.
I suspect that the battle continues through the summer, and the Clinton campaign machine moves forward to the convention, and ensures that every vote is counted... and then changed in her favor.
Or is it.
The Democrats need a combined delegate count of 2118 to win the convention.
Barack Hussein Obama has 2076 combined voters and super delegates.
Hillary Rodham Clinton has 1917 combined.
Up for grabs tomorrow:
Montana's 25 combined delegates
South Dakota's 23 combined delegates
Should Obama win 100% of the remaining delegates, he would break the threshold by 6 delegate votes... which is not going to happen. The delegates are split by a percentage of votes won, not winner take all as in the Republican contests.
Which brings into question Michigan and Florida... both Clinton landslides (namely because she campaigned and won there, though the delegates were never going to be seated). Should she decide to seat her allotted delegates from Michigan and Florida, Hillary Clinton could take the Democratic nomination.
If not, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are so close, that a Ron Paul style "coup" at the convention could sway the Obama voters for the second round of voting.
This is where being a delegate gets confusing, and interesting. If, after the first round, there are no clear winners, the delegates are released and able to vote for whomever they so chose. If Clinton was able to stack the delegate crowd who made it to the national convention, and is able to pull off a stalemate prior to convention, she could win the convention by a landslide.
However, this tactic may back-fire in the general election.
As well, if Clinton cashes in her chips, those in the know would have to assume that she doesn't have the political will to lead her party, and as such could never be considered a serious contender in the future.
Clinton's chances for victory have never been so sweet as they are now... make Obama believe that there is no chance of victory... play the delegates HARD... and hope for a second round vote blowout. Clinton has played her cards right 100%. This could be the political story of the century.
Or her flame could flicker out after the June 3rd contests, as she bows her head in submission to Obama.
I suspect that the battle continues through the summer, and the Clinton campaign machine moves forward to the convention, and ensures that every vote is counted... and then changed in her favor.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Clinton Addresses Supporters
When I heard the Hillary Clinton was addressing supporters in West Virginia at 12:30 ET, I thought that we would finally see the Democratic race wrap up, and head into the primaries.
Unfortunately, Clinton is looking for that come from behind win... which, at this point is little more than a pipe dream.
Neither Clinton nor Obama will have the delegates necessary to end this thing prior to the convention... so, with Clinton's claims of victory yesterday, we can look forward to three and a half more months of Democratic bickering... which is fine by me... McCain is working on VP picks, visiting world leaders, and starting to consider transitions from Bush to McCain. He's looking very presidential while the Democrats are stuck in a mudslinging competition that will ne'er be matched.
So, again, the democratic primary remains unchanged...
Unfortunately, Clinton is looking for that come from behind win... which, at this point is little more than a pipe dream.
Neither Clinton nor Obama will have the delegates necessary to end this thing prior to the convention... so, with Clinton's claims of victory yesterday, we can look forward to three and a half more months of Democratic bickering... which is fine by me... McCain is working on VP picks, visiting world leaders, and starting to consider transitions from Bush to McCain. He's looking very presidential while the Democrats are stuck in a mudslinging competition that will ne'er be matched.
So, again, the democratic primary remains unchanged...
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Through Super Tuesday, County Results
Hat tip to Suitably Flip for providing this map!
And of course, Flip provides a hat tip to Wikipedia for providing the early version of the map. It is interesting to see the counties where each of the GOP candidates received the win. In the south, excluding Florida, Romney's only support are in a few dense urban areas... The same seems to hold true for McCain in the South. This should come as no suprise to anyone, as Southerners tend to rally behind their Southern Brothers... and as such, Huckabee pulled the upset in the southern states.
The results I find most interesting are in Wisconsin and Montana, where the campaigns had little time to organize state-wide efforts. In effect, you see an accurate representation of what grass-roots only states look like. It is beautiful!
And of course, Flip provides a hat tip to Wikipedia for providing the early version of the map. It is interesting to see the counties where each of the GOP candidates received the win. In the south, excluding Florida, Romney's only support are in a few dense urban areas... The same seems to hold true for McCain in the South. This should come as no suprise to anyone, as Southerners tend to rally behind their Southern Brothers... and as such, Huckabee pulled the upset in the southern states.The results I find most interesting are in Wisconsin and Montana, where the campaigns had little time to organize state-wide efforts. In effect, you see an accurate representation of what grass-roots only states look like. It is beautiful!
Thursday, January 24, 2008
GOP: So, Who Has the Momentum Again?
It is January 24th, 2008... Five days before the Florida showdown... Twelve days before Super Tuesday. A number of contests have cleared the field of candidates who failed to materialize, leaving behind a race that is as out of the ordinary as a San Francisco Conservative.Huckabee claimed first blood in Iowa, taking the state from the long time favorite there, Mitt Romney. The Huckaboom had paid off, and Huck's momentum was back.
Fast on his tail was John McCain, perhaps in anticipation of his contest in New Hampshire, where Independents were able to rally behind their man as they did 8 years prior. John McCain's win in New Hampshire helped further propel his numbers in the positive direction, giving him the highest level of support since entering the race over a year ago.
Meanwhile, smaller and less contested races were taking place in states like Wyoming, Michigan, and Nevada... Victories out of these states heralded little notice by the press, but the delegates counted just the same as in the traditional early states. Mitt Romney's victories in these widely uncontested states did little to add to his momentum, though there is something to be said for leading the delegate count before Super Tuesday, and that is the headline he was hoping for.
Rudy Guiliani has yet to break 10% in a contest in the early states. His strategy of "Go Big or Go Home", where he is playing in states with only sizable delegate counts, has done little more than employ an army of campaign eulogy writers... but for Rudy, there is always Florida, right?
And all the while, Ron Paul and his supporters, after stacking every online poll in an attempt to appear as a front-runner, has been unable to muster more than 5% nationally in the polls, and has had his best showing in an uncontested Nevada, where he placed a very distant 2nd.
So I ask the question... Who has the momentum again?
The answer is simply: No One!
Fred Thompson's drop from the race, and lack of an expected endorsement, has left a large field of undecided voters hesitant to join any one campaign. The lack of a McCain endorsement has further served to help add gravity to McCain's falling national numbers, as voters remember why his campaign imploded over the summer: Immigration.
Duncan Hunter, yesterday, in an attempt to help swings some momentum in the direction of the Social Conservatives, endorsed Mike Huckabee... unfortunately this endorsement received little fanfare from the media, as they have all but declared the Huckabee campaign a bust. Huckabee is doing little to help his own campaign by not aggressively pursuing Thompson's supporters. Instead his campaign released a short press advisory welcoming support... while at the same time his campaign Chairman Chip Saltzman took a hit at Fred Thompson on the Mike Huckabee Campaign Blog. Huckabee missed an opportunity to claim victory in SC after the contest, by claiming that Fred's withdrawal, had it happened prior to the race, would have made him the clear victor.
Rudy's numbers have flatlined, which for him is a good thing at this point. A flatline is much better than the nose-dive he was seeing. This hesitation in the plummet may be temporary, unless he can pull off a come from behind win in Florida. Rudy's only source of momentum is anticipation of Florida... but all the momentum leads up to is a simple "no change".
Mitt Romney seems unable to break the invisible barrier of 16% in the national polls. His campaign had surged in the past, only to hit 16% and fall... rising again, only to fall again... he is at 15.8%, but the trend is ominous for his campaign!
It is hard to say what will happen in the debate tonight, but easy to see what must be done. There is a new flood of undecided Thompson voters that could cling to a new campaign and propel that campaign to the White House. Every person left on that stage needs to spend tonight aggressively wooing the ex-Fred-heads. The candidate who stands to pick up the votes MUST be conservative socially (this excludes Rudy and potentially McCain), must be strong, and must actually ASK for their support... no subtleties... now is not the time!
With no momentum from any candidate, no clear front-runner, and all candidates within 10% of being the leader on a very fluid scale... We start tonight at square ONE!
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
New Hampshire results... All eyes on Michigan, Nevada, SC
New Hampshire provided expected results for the Republicans (though Fox Pundits appeared shock that their golden boy lost), but the big upset was Clinton over Obama.
Here were my predictions and the actual results:
GOP:
McCain: 37%...... 37%
Romney: 28%.... 32%
Huckabee: 15%.. 11%
Paul: 10%............ 8%
Rudy: 9%............. 9%
Thompson: 1%.... 1%
Dems:
Obama: 39%....... 37%
Clinton: 26%....... 39%
Edwards: 24%.... 17%
Richardson: 6%.. 5%
Kucinich: 5%....... 1%
I was pretty on target for the GOP, there was a 4% vote swing in my prediction in Huckabee's favor that I took from Romney... looks like he took it back!
For the Dems, I was right on that the leader would get 39%... i just did not think that was going to be Hilalry. I suppose that the loss in Iowa motivated her base support to get out the vote!
The biggest losers of the NH primary: John Edwards and Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney spent upwards of $20 Million in 2 states, and has lost both of them. He is looking to a victory in Michigan to keep his campaign alive. The small amount of delegates he has picked up so far will be nothing come SC, Florida, and Super Tuesday... He has no momentum, and has been shown back-to-back defeats... It won't be too long before Ann Romney confiscates the checkbook and makes him drop out. Even with a Michigan win, his campaign is seriously in doubt... and he kissed his VP nod goodbye when he started attacking everyone to get on top. Poor form, old chap!
John Edwards' whooping in NH was a big shocker. After a strong showing in Iowa, John was picking up some momentum... Hillary took that out in one blow. The only way that John can look to beat Hilalry is to meet up with Obama and work out some sort of a coalition and VP nod... With both of them in the race, it looks like Hilalry is going to squeak out victory after victory... may have turned out to be a fluke, and with Edwards WAY behind in NH, Obama hanging on, you have to wonder how long Edwards stays in... the longer he does, the more likely that Hillary gets the nod.
What can we expect to see? On the side of the democrats, Obama's loss brings up questions of Hillary's inevitability once again... The pundits will say that Iowa was a fluke, and her support may begin to rise... the Clinton Machine is well funded and well oiled... She may have some fight left in her yet... This was a big night for her campaign... and likely ended John Edwards'.
The GOP will move on to Michigan, where Huckabee will likely beat out Romney. If Romney finishes second, he is finished. If Huckabee finishes second, he has SC and Florida to look forward to. A second place finish in Michigan for Huckabee would surely take the momentum away heading into SC, where he will be challenged by McCain. If McCain takes SC, he likely takes Florida, and will have all the momentum going into Super Tuesday, where he and Rudy will battle it out. There will be a three way tie in delegates between Rudy, McCain, and Huckabee after Super Tuesday, and the brokering begins... likely McCain and Huckabee join up and run on one ticket in 2008. However, if Huckabee takes Michigan and SC, Florida is his to lose, and he is clearly the front-runner going into Super Tuesday. He would likely lead with delegates after S.T. and we would go into brokering, where he will likely ask for McCain's endorsement and run on a Huckabee / McCain ticket. If McCain does not do well due to a SC loss, Huckabee may choose someone like Governor Sarah Palin as a running mate, and they will likely sweep into office in the general election.
Let's hear what happens in the next few days... there will be a dropped bid by Richardson, I am sure...
any thoughts?
Here were my predictions and the actual results:
GOP:
McCain: 37%...... 37%
Romney: 28%.... 32%
Huckabee: 15%.. 11%
Paul: 10%............ 8%
Rudy: 9%............. 9%
Thompson: 1%.... 1%
Dems:
Obama: 39%....... 37%
Clinton: 26%....... 39%
Edwards: 24%.... 17%
Richardson: 6%.. 5%
Kucinich: 5%....... 1%
I was pretty on target for the GOP, there was a 4% vote swing in my prediction in Huckabee's favor that I took from Romney... looks like he took it back!
For the Dems, I was right on that the leader would get 39%... i just did not think that was going to be Hilalry. I suppose that the loss in Iowa motivated her base support to get out the vote!
The biggest losers of the NH primary: John Edwards and Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney spent upwards of $20 Million in 2 states, and has lost both of them. He is looking to a victory in Michigan to keep his campaign alive. The small amount of delegates he has picked up so far will be nothing come SC, Florida, and Super Tuesday... He has no momentum, and has been shown back-to-back defeats... It won't be too long before Ann Romney confiscates the checkbook and makes him drop out. Even with a Michigan win, his campaign is seriously in doubt... and he kissed his VP nod goodbye when he started attacking everyone to get on top. Poor form, old chap!
John Edwards' whooping in NH was a big shocker. After a strong showing in Iowa, John was picking up some momentum... Hillary took that out in one blow. The only way that John can look to beat Hilalry is to meet up with Obama and work out some sort of a coalition and VP nod... With both of them in the race, it looks like Hilalry is going to squeak out victory after victory... may have turned out to be a fluke, and with Edwards WAY behind in NH, Obama hanging on, you have to wonder how long Edwards stays in... the longer he does, the more likely that Hillary gets the nod.
What can we expect to see? On the side of the democrats, Obama's loss brings up questions of Hillary's inevitability once again... The pundits will say that Iowa was a fluke, and her support may begin to rise... the Clinton Machine is well funded and well oiled... She may have some fight left in her yet... This was a big night for her campaign... and likely ended John Edwards'.
The GOP will move on to Michigan, where Huckabee will likely beat out Romney. If Romney finishes second, he is finished. If Huckabee finishes second, he has SC and Florida to look forward to. A second place finish in Michigan for Huckabee would surely take the momentum away heading into SC, where he will be challenged by McCain. If McCain takes SC, he likely takes Florida, and will have all the momentum going into Super Tuesday, where he and Rudy will battle it out. There will be a three way tie in delegates between Rudy, McCain, and Huckabee after Super Tuesday, and the brokering begins... likely McCain and Huckabee join up and run on one ticket in 2008. However, if Huckabee takes Michigan and SC, Florida is his to lose, and he is clearly the front-runner going into Super Tuesday. He would likely lead with delegates after S.T. and we would go into brokering, where he will likely ask for McCain's endorsement and run on a Huckabee / McCain ticket. If McCain does not do well due to a SC loss, Huckabee may choose someone like Governor Sarah Palin as a running mate, and they will likely sweep into office in the general election.
Let's hear what happens in the next few days... there will be a dropped bid by Richardson, I am sure...
any thoughts?
Monday, January 7, 2008
Predictions for the NH Primary
Real Clear Politics is showing a new trend after the Iowa Caucus, and in anticipation of the New Hampshire Caucus: Mike Huckabee and John McCain are surging nationally, while Rudy Giuliani (who is seeing his lowest numbers of the race) and Mitt Romney are free-falling. In fact, the latest polls show a three way tie for first: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee... but unfortunately for Rudy, his numbers are falling and it will not be too long before his campaign is through... At this rate, I doubt that he will make it to Super Tuesday in one piece... so it looks like his "Go Big or Go Home" approach to delegates (focusing only on the Super Tuesday states) has failed... or is in the midst of failing.
But what about taking a look at New Hampshire? How is tomorrow going to play out? The debates showed that there are four candidates in this race nationally: McCain, Huckabee, Rudy, and Romney. Thompson will likely not register in these polls, and may hold out for South Carolina... but after an embarrassing finish there, he will withdraw.
I call NH this way for the Republicans:
McCain: 37%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 10%
Rudy: 9%
Thompson: 1%
NH Dems:
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 24%
Richardson: 6%
Kucinich: 5%
On the Republican side, the poor 2nd place showing will be a second blow to the already critically wounded (post Iowa) Romney Campaign. After a 2nd place finish in NH, Michigan wont much matter, and there are no other states where Romney is polling in first besides Utah (and perhaps MA, but I don't know... the last poll was from April of 2007).
Fred Thompson is not expecting anything out of NH, and only showed up in the state for the debates, then it was off to SC where he is facing a 2:1 deficit to Mike Huckabee, who leads the state. After a fourth place finish (to Huckabee, McCain, and Mitt or Rudy)... perhaps a 3rd place finish if Mitt and Rudy continue to slip, Fred will give a speech along the lines of: "Well... we gave it a good run... but it looks like it wasn't meant to be... so I will be withdrawing my campaign from the race, and endorsing John McCain"
John McCain will get a huge boost from an overwhelming win in NH. This boost will likely propel him to a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Michigan, and make him a contender (likely finishing 2nd) in SC. This will give him some momentum going into Super Tuesday. I say SOME because he will not do well in Florida, so there will be one loss just days before Super Tuesday.
Mike Huckabee's convincing 3rd place finish will reignite the huckaboom, and add to his momentum from Iowa. He will likely go on to win in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida... giving him the big Mo' heading into Super Tuesday. This is going to be a Huckabee McCain race to the finish.
Rudy's gamble of waiting for Super Tuesday did not pay off. He will have no momentum going into Florida, and likely finish second to Huckabee. This blow will lead to a lackluster performance on Super Tuesday. Rudy will likely hold out for the National Convention, hoping to win over some delegates as Romney and Thompson drop out of the race.
Ron Paul will make his last stand in NH. This is the only state where he would have had a chance to come out on top, with the support of the Independent voters. However, a 4th place finish will leave his campaign with no momentum... plenty of cash, but no momentum. I doubt that he runs as a Libertarian, but if he did, this could put the Libertarian party on the map, giving the Green party a run for it's money as the only viable third party. This would be optimal if Bloomberg also ran as an independent. We would see a four way race, where the Democrats are hit by the Independent Bloomberg, and the Independents are hit by the Libertarians, and the Republicans are hit by losing Independent voters to some degree... It would make it the most interesting election in recent history!
On the democratic side... if Obama pulls off another upset, as I predict, the Clinton campaign will be finished. Edwards will surge into first or second as Clinton's numbers plummet. The nomination will likely go to Edwards or Obama (in that order) after Super Tuesday clears Clinton off into a third place shocker. She will likely drop out and endorse Obama, but her voters will be split between Edwards and Obama... then it is a delegate war for who can cross the threshold first.
*Note, these predictions are subject to change assuming I am completely wrong and NH goes a totally different way.
But what about taking a look at New Hampshire? How is tomorrow going to play out? The debates showed that there are four candidates in this race nationally: McCain, Huckabee, Rudy, and Romney. Thompson will likely not register in these polls, and may hold out for South Carolina... but after an embarrassing finish there, he will withdraw.
I call NH this way for the Republicans:
McCain: 37%
Romney: 28%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 10%
Rudy: 9%
Thompson: 1%
NH Dems:
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 24%
Richardson: 6%
Kucinich: 5%
On the Republican side, the poor 2nd place showing will be a second blow to the already critically wounded (post Iowa) Romney Campaign. After a 2nd place finish in NH, Michigan wont much matter, and there are no other states where Romney is polling in first besides Utah (and perhaps MA, but I don't know... the last poll was from April of 2007).
Fred Thompson is not expecting anything out of NH, and only showed up in the state for the debates, then it was off to SC where he is facing a 2:1 deficit to Mike Huckabee, who leads the state. After a fourth place finish (to Huckabee, McCain, and Mitt or Rudy)... perhaps a 3rd place finish if Mitt and Rudy continue to slip, Fred will give a speech along the lines of: "Well... we gave it a good run... but it looks like it wasn't meant to be... so I will be withdrawing my campaign from the race, and endorsing John McCain"
John McCain will get a huge boost from an overwhelming win in NH. This boost will likely propel him to a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Michigan, and make him a contender (likely finishing 2nd) in SC. This will give him some momentum going into Super Tuesday. I say SOME because he will not do well in Florida, so there will be one loss just days before Super Tuesday.
Mike Huckabee's convincing 3rd place finish will reignite the huckaboom, and add to his momentum from Iowa. He will likely go on to win in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida... giving him the big Mo' heading into Super Tuesday. This is going to be a Huckabee McCain race to the finish.
Rudy's gamble of waiting for Super Tuesday did not pay off. He will have no momentum going into Florida, and likely finish second to Huckabee. This blow will lead to a lackluster performance on Super Tuesday. Rudy will likely hold out for the National Convention, hoping to win over some delegates as Romney and Thompson drop out of the race.
Ron Paul will make his last stand in NH. This is the only state where he would have had a chance to come out on top, with the support of the Independent voters. However, a 4th place finish will leave his campaign with no momentum... plenty of cash, but no momentum. I doubt that he runs as a Libertarian, but if he did, this could put the Libertarian party on the map, giving the Green party a run for it's money as the only viable third party. This would be optimal if Bloomberg also ran as an independent. We would see a four way race, where the Democrats are hit by the Independent Bloomberg, and the Independents are hit by the Libertarians, and the Republicans are hit by losing Independent voters to some degree... It would make it the most interesting election in recent history!
On the democratic side... if Obama pulls off another upset, as I predict, the Clinton campaign will be finished. Edwards will surge into first or second as Clinton's numbers plummet. The nomination will likely go to Edwards or Obama (in that order) after Super Tuesday clears Clinton off into a third place shocker. She will likely drop out and endorse Obama, but her voters will be split between Edwards and Obama... then it is a delegate war for who can cross the threshold first.
*Note, these predictions are subject to change assuming I am completely wrong and NH goes a totally different way.
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