Monday, January 21, 2008

My Thoughts in a post SC world...

There are ten days between SC and Florida... and another week after that until Super Tuesday. So what do the next two weeks hold in store?

We have already seen Duncan Hunter drop the race after a predictably poor showing in SC.

So who is next?

The headlines of the morning papers today, as seen on, are hinting that Fred Thompson is considering dropping the race after he was able to do little more than play the spoiler to the Huckabee campaign... of course they hinted at that before... but Fred had said that he needed a win or a strong second in SC to have a chance. And anyone who watched Fred's concession speech were left scratching their heads, wondering if he botched a withdrawal speech, or if he was trying to rally the troops on into Florida:

The AP Reports:
Despite the situation, Thompson was expected to bow out after failing to
win the states where he had hoped to perform strongly, Iowa and South Carolina.
The former Tennessee senator and "Law & Order" actor returned home after
delivering a speech in South Carolina on Saturday that sounded like he was
calling it quits. He stopped short of doing so but some supporters suspected it
would only be a matter of time before Thompson withdraws.

Before South Carolina, several aides had said he probably would need to
finish first or a strong second in that race to go forward. Aides didn't expect
a decision from Thompson until sometime after the weekend.

With Fred Thompson out, the race will become a McCain, Huckabee, Romney, Rudy contest... heading into Florida where they are all within 7 points of one another, it will be a race to distinguish the have's from the have-not's in the GOP Primary.

Current poll averages have the top four hovering around 20%, and Thompson & Paul way behind the field with 8.5 and 5 points respectively.

Should Thompson drop, and likely endorse McCain, one would wonder if Fred's social conservatives could get behind McCain, who has been no friend to Social issues... Rudy and Romney will likely not benefit from Fred's voters as much as McCain and Huckabee will. Should those votes distribute evenly, we should expect similar results as we saw in SC happening in Florida.

If Fred does not drop out, it will likely only serve to keep Huckabee's numbers low and help his friend McCain, as was the case in SC.

Moving into Super Tuesday without Fred could definitely shake things up. None of the top four are out, but Rudy is close, especially without Florida.

We should all listen very hard to any chatter coming out of the Thompson campaign. Once he makes a move to stay in or get out, we can better handicap the Florida race.

One thing is certain... Romney is counting on a brokered convention, where his wins in uncontested states may help... at least until Super Tuesday... then he could find himself falling to the rear of the pack... But when you have a brokered convention, every delegate counts!

I will provide updates if any news breaks...


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  2. Fox News reporting that Thompson would make a good VP nominee.

    Something I've saying for the past week, I think he would give the Romney campaign the best shot though. Romney has all the momentum now.

    Rudy and Huck are out of the race, they are tanking.

  3. Rudy has not officially entered the race, and Huckabee is going strong, with a strong second place in SC. Florida is an uphill battle, but he stands to gain a significant number of delegates on Super Tuesday.

    Thompson would not endorse Romney. No way! Romney is not a good candidate, is a flip-flopper, and has little chance of getting the nomination... Thompson enetered the race because Romney was not a true conservative... he had no idea that Huckabee was going to end up as a viable candidate...

    The best choice for a VP would be Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska. Look her up. She is ready for that kind of a nod from the party.

  4. Your optimism about Huck's chances post-SC is admirable but misplaced (as apparently was my optimism about Fred). This is shaping up to be a Romney-McCain battle for the nomination.

    Your comment about where Fred's supporters will go is probably misguided, too. I've seen a couple informal polls (and lots of comments) online, and Fredheads' second choice overwhelmingly appears to be Romney - followed distantly by McCain, then Giuliani & Huck.

    Finally, why as a Huck supporter are you concerned by the belief that "Romney is not a true conservative"? Fred was the closest thing to a true conservative this race had to offer. I would say Romney is somewhat closer to that distinction than Huck, especially if you compare their positions & records.

  5. optimistic, yes... unrealistic, nah... It is a delegate race, and once Super Tuesday comes and fills up some coiffers, then we will tell for sure. Huck's chances look good on Super Tuesday.... Granted SC was a hit, it was so clsoe that it was not completely fatal.

    Regarding Romney's positions... when you find one that hasn't changed for the convenience of politiking, please let me know! This guy is neither conservative NOR consistent!

    Fred Thompson was truly a conservative... not THE conservative... he had some issues on abortion, etc on the SOCON side, but that was a while back, and forgivable... What the problem was, is that Fred sank his own ship... he was unmotivated, uninspiring, and the position of THE conservative was his to lose... and he has. Remember, just a few months ago he was 21% nationally, and a sure thing to beat Rudy... but his campaign turned a LOT of people away, and what you have left are the 9% who were involved in the "Draft Fred" movement.

    Huckabee is truly a SOCON, but stands to gain some ground with the Reagan Coalition legs other than faith. His approach has been an appeal to youth, and to "care and fair" voters... but if you look at 2nd amendment, life, marriage, 10th amendment, taxes, etc... (everything but immigration)... he is conservative... flawed, but conservative!