McCain's VP Pick Could Rally Conservative Base

CQ Politics has been conducting a bracketed system of voting to determine who would best support John McCain as the Republican Veep Nominee. The final round of voting is currently underway, and ends tomorrow night.

Click here to Vote

The final match-up, which is no surprise to me, is between Gov. Sarah Palin and Gov. Mike Huckabee.

I was a steadfast supporter of Mike Huckabee for President, and have been a steadfast supporter of Palin for VP even before McCain won the nomination.

If I had to pick two of the most top notch candidates for VP, never a finer match existed.

Sarah Palin will bring youth, energy, and can-do conservative principles to a largely independent GOP candidate.

Mike Huckabee will bring faith, oratory skills, and a positive approach to bringing the conservative principles that this country was founded on to the forefront of our society.

Alone, McCain is a vulnerable candidate. But with either of these two as the Vice Presidential nominee, John McCain stands to rally the conservative base and ensure victory in November over Barack Obama.

The Case for Palin as VP

A year ago, I was an early part of the Mike Huckabee for President movement... despite the 2% rating, the "he's got no name recognition", and the "he's a preacher" arguments, I held my ground and made a great case for Huckabee as President of the United States. He was largely ignored until the Iowa Straw Poll... then the mud came. The old news that was clearly explained in his book, Hope to Higher Ground, was suddenly front page gossip. Mike Huckabee raised taxes, Mike Huckabee granted clemency, Mike Huckabee has no foreign policy experience. But what was little reported was that Huckabee pulled his state up by the boot strings, turned education around, fixed the highway system, offered the best relief of any of Louisiana's neighbors for storm victims along the Gulf Coast, and all this while a Republican in a Democratic state.

Now I started looking into Palin as a VP for Huckabee some time ago, but now I am looking at her for a VP for McCain.

And the same anti-Huckabee arguments are being used against Palin: She raised taxes, she supports benefits to same-sex couples, she is anti-oil. Behind every headline there is a truth waiting to be discovered. So before folks start talking about her taxes, or her stance on business, let's look at the facts behind the headlines.

Let's look at her ethical conduct in cleaning up Alaska's government. Let's talk about her no-nonsense approach to setting an example for the highest ethical conduct expected out of every leader in our great nation. This includes selling the state's jet that was costing taxpayers unnecessary funds, and instead put that money where it is most effective - in the taxpayer's pocket. Let's talk about her support from the Club for Growth.

Let's talk about her fight against pork-barrel spending. She was part of the team of politicians who killed the "bridge to no-where". Fiscal Responsibility.

She is a lifetime member to the NRA, and would surely secure their endorsement. She is an avid outdoorsman, a weekend fisher, and her husband is a professional fisherman. She is an advocate for big game hunting, and an environmental conservationist.

Let's talk about her pro-education stance, as a politician and as a mother. Let's talk about her support for traditional marriage and family values in a world of political sex scandals. Let's discuss her consistent pro-life stance.

Let's talk about her unwavering support for the American Soldier, and the Alaskan National Guardsman. About how she goes out of her way to give special thanks to soldiers at home and abroad, and has travelled to Kuwait to personally thank Alaskan soldiers abroad. Let's talk about her having more foreign policy experience than Obama and Clinton put together, dealing with Mongolian military and Iceland's government regularly.

Let's talk about her understanding that politics is not being part of a ruling class, but a serving class... and how she regularly volunteers at community building events, and serves her community.

Sarah Palin is a class act. She is young, energetic, and a well rounded conservative. Sarah Palin may have merely 2 years of experience as Governor of Alaska, but Obama has 2 years as a Senator (and he will likely be the Democratic Nominee)... Palin is more qualified to be President than Obama. Palin's history of community service goes back beyond her governorship... she has made a point to stay involved... no matter how small the task, or how little it would impress a New York big city urbanite...

Palin has the ability to be the new face of the Conservative Republican movement. She is a young and talented woman in our ranks, with the experience and ethical ability to hold such a prestigious office as Vice President and President of the United States. Placing Palin on the forefront of the conservative movement will help energize the women within our ranks, and diminish the false perception that the GOP is a "Good Ol' Boys Club". She is fresh, and that freshness is backed with a conservative message. This alone will squelch the Obama Change Train... because we have a substantive message.

Palin represents consistent conservative values, with a CHANGE in perception... that is the kind of change that we need in Washington... an emboldened conservative message, and the talent to move it forward.

The conservative movement is not dead... McCain can pull in the independent voters... Palin can pull in the conservatives. With Palin on the ticket, we can guarantee a strong future of the Republican Party, and of the Conservative movement.

I encourage you to look into Palin... read the headlines, but then investigate the facts... you will see what I saw in Huckabee. Truth, conscience, and consistency.

We need not pick a governor from a swing state for VP... we need to pick a conservative who represents a change for the party. The time for conservatism is now... the time for substantive change is now.

Before the results, my thoughts on Super Tuesday II

This could very well be my last post on Mike Huckabee and his bid for the GOP longshot nomination. Mike Huckabee's remaining in the race has been for the sole purposes of giving conservatives a voice as McCain moved towards the nomination. Pulling in 41% in Virginia and 38% in Wisconsin should be enough of a message to John McCain that he needs to pick a cabinet, and run a White House that will not isolate the conservative movement.

We will have from tomorrow until November to determine if John McCain is going to reach out to the right as hard as he has reached out to the left.

Regarding today... can Mike Huckabee pull an upset? With Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont on the chopping block, I see Huckabee doing well in Texas alone... the rest will go to McCain overwhelmingly... likely giving McCain his required delegates to secure the nomination. But I have to give Mike Huckabee kudos for running an honest, positive, and on message campaign, while sticking to his word that he would stay in it to ensure the conservatives have a voice.

I'm not eulogizing Huckabee's campaign yet... but regardless of the outcome, I have much respect for the man, for his message, and his willingness to listen to the people, the bloggers, and the late night comedians... which has always been entertaining.

Sarah Palin, 45th President of the United States?

As McCain closes in on the magic number for locking up the GOP nomination, the conversation of Vice Presidential picks is in full swing. We all know John McCain's shortcomings. We have discussed the battle conservatives face with McCain. And we are very aware that it must be the new battle cry for conservatives to ensure that McCain's veep is acceptable, and an appropriate choice for the movement.

I once again challenge my readers to look into the history and prospect for VP that Sarah Palin represents. She currently holds the seat of Governor of Alaska, and won the seat by upsetting the incumbent corrupt Republican Governor. She is 44, has a son in the military, and is an activist for the Pro-Life movement as a member of Feminists for Life.

The American Spectator has written an interesting article focusing on her juxtaposition to McCain's "old coot" feel. An excerpt:

Gov. Palin could become the Republican Party's Segolene Royal, the French Socialist Party's glamorous leader known for her heels and political bite. She is the perfect antidote to Sen. Obama's cheap thrills, and would help rejuvenate conservatism.

If Camille Paglia or the huffers on Huffington Post are anything to go by, the standard line that will be repeated often against John McCain will be that he's an "old coot"; a vintage George C. Scott-style warmonger; old; hypocritical; and just plain odd.

As McCain's advisers most surely know, the best way to combat that line of attack is to choose a running mate who in no way can be seen as old or as a "coot."

MRS. PALIN IS most certainly not an "old coot." She has enchanting, fresh charisma and the credentials, too, to win back and motivate a lot of conservatives, disaffected Republicans, and independents tired of government corruption and Republican degeneracy and sheer idiocy.

McCain needs someone who like Sen. Obama physically represents a departure from the past, who also oozes vibrancy and intelligence, will motivate die-hard conservatives, but what's more, who will also let the Arizonan take advantage of his age and enable him to be the playful and charming Reagan-esque grandfather figure that Americans always fall in love with. In other words, Sen. McCain, like President Nixon in the 1968 election, needs an opposite number -- that's Sarah Palin in the flesh.

Sarah Palin is quickly moving to the top of the short list of favorites for McCain's VP for the reasons above and so many more. But the most important reason is that she is intriguing, intelligent, well spoken, and soundly conservative. She is a fresh face that can challenge the platform and experience of the Democratic fresh face, Obama, who's lack of executive experience, foreign policy, and radical left ideology are just begging to end his national political career.

Similar to Mike Huckabee's appeal in the early days of his campaign, the more people who look into Sarah Palin the more they like her as the VP for the GOP. (Speaking of Huckabee, I am not abandoning support for what Huckabee means to the race, and he is on my short list for VP... but Sarah Palin makes the GOP ticket more well rounded).

And the Democrats should fear Palin. I often hear the left attack the GOP for failing to support women or minorities within our ranks (quite a false attack, I might add). The GOP, in fact, has a number of amazing political leaders who fit this mold, Michael Steele and Sarah Palin among two of my favorites. Sarah Palin would shock the general public who have bought this profiling of the GOP hook-line-sinker, and would open their eyes to the true nature and openness of the GOP to minorities and women... (just without pandering to false "social needs" of these groups... The GOP believes that we can all be equally successful if we focus on free market and the founding principles.)

The Liberals fear Palin because she is a staunch ethicist... she represents the broom that the GOP needs to clean up our leadership. She took down corruption in the Alaskan GOP, and she could do the same in DC. She represents the resurgence of morality within the party.

The Donkeys fear Palin because she is young, energetic, intelligent, and attractive... all the things that Obama is running on... but she has substance! The Mules know that if Palin gets the nod, the race will clearly be a face-off of Obama v. Palin... McCain will be the grandfather making the calls, but Palin will be the rally cry for the youth movement within the conservative base of the party... the very base that has pledged not to support McCain.

Palin, in my humblest of opinions, is the best choice for VP... and I will continue to build the case for Sarah Palin for VP.

Your thoughts and comments are appreciated.

National Space Society, Mike Huckabee, and a Weekend Out

Last night was a very interesting night! I was part of a panel of experts discussing topics related to Human Exploration of Space for the National Space Society. I have some video and pictures that I will be adding later. Unfortunately there was not a larger crowd. All of the presenters had great things to say!

Tonight, as I am participating in the Leadership Program of the Rockies' Leadership Retreat, I have the opportunity to sit down for a good two hours with Mike Huckabee and discuss politics, followed by an hour long speech and Q&A session during dinner. Needless to say, tonight is going to be a great night.

Our speaker tomorrow during lunch is the Wall Street Journal's John Fund!

And after all is said and done I should have some great stories, great pictures, and great videos to share with you all!

Democrat's disarray not as bad as Conservative blockade

Clinton is in the fight for her political life. Should she lose to Obama she will have little chance of ever running another successful campaign for the White House. This is her one and only shot... all eggs in the basket. And Obama knows it. He knows it, and he is loving every minute of his trouncing of the Clinton Machine.

Should Obama lose the nomination, either by votes or by super delegates, he has just cause to run again. He is a first term Senator, youthful, and inspirational. The party knows this.

They also know that they are watching their party devour itself. The polarizing Clinton is polarizing the Democrats as much as she would the country. Obama is picking up supporters from the Clinton campa dn the undecideds... and Clinton is about to take a major nose dive.

The perfect storm for Republicans?

I think not.

Democrats are so motivated to support whomever their nominee is... the rest is just liberal drama.

I have yet to hear any Democrat say "If Obama wins the nomination I am voting for McCain"

I have yet to hear any Democrat say "If Clinton wins, I just wont vote"

Their party is enjoying the bloodbath, but it has all the intention to rally behind their nominee, whomever that may be.

Enter the Conservative blockade. The very blockade that is bringing us the "I'll never vote for McCain" naysayers... or the "I just wont vote" group.

Granted, I am watching McCain very carefully as he continues his race, and especially as he selects a VP. But as long as McCain picks a good solid conservative like Palin or Huckabee, I will have no problem holding my nose at the poll. In fact, I could honestly say that I would still be voting FOR conservative values...

I am still pulling for a brokered convention... but should McCain win before hand, and should he select a suitable running mate, I do not see the problem.

With Democrats amped to end the era of Bush, and likely to rally behind any candidate promising leadership for their party, they are going to swarm the booths on election day, and if they out-swarm the GOP as the conservative block promises to protest... we can expect 4 years of Clinton or Obama.

To come later: What would a Clinton or Obama White House look like for America?

Conservative Coalition to take down McCain?

McCain can lock the GOP nomination by securing 54% of the remaining delegates.

Huckabee needs an impossible 91% to do the same.

However, if McCain does not lock the nomination, we go to a brokered convention.

Should Huckabee pull within 100 - 300 delegate votes of McCain by the end of this thing, Romney and Thompson may consider endorsing Huckabee, asking their pledged delegates to vote Huckabee at the convention, and we could see the Conservative Coalition take down McCain.

This should be the new focus of the campaign... Conservative Coalition.

For those of you who claim that Huckabee is not a conservative... remember, there is Social conservative, Fiscal Conservative, and Military conservative... That is Huckabee, Romney, Thompson... The three of them working together could derail the McCain Express.

Conservative Coalition anyone?

Huckabee/Palin, Huckabee/Thompson, Huckabee/Romney with top cabinet posts for the coalition...

Conservative Coalition!

(I think I am the first to propose this: 12:30 MT - let's see if it catches on)

Mitt Romney Out

Mitt Romney made a shocking announcement to the CPAC crowd today: I'm Out.

That leaves the clear frontrunner, John McCain, and the clear underdog, Mike Huckabee, to duel it out over the next weeks/months.

The question stands: Does Huckabee follow suit and hope for the VP nod, or does he attempt to rally conservatives and do the impossible... picking up 91% of the remaining delegates for the win.

Also, Could conservatives conspire against McCain and block his 54% needed of the remaining delegates, only to pool their delegates against McCain at the convention?

If Huckabee stays in the race and picks up Romney voters in the remaining states, Huckabee could very well block the McCain innevitibility, allowing for a conservative coalition to come together at the convention... Could we be looking at a Huckabee/Romney ticket? Excuse me while I clear my throat... but perhaps.

Thoughts?

The Super Tuesday Hangover

Forget the Monday morning after Super Bowl hangover... this is the Wednesday morning after Super Duper Tuesday hangover! Though I would say that it is less of a hangover, and more of a bloggers buffet! There are so many stories to discuss, it is hard to know where to start.

We could discuss the Clinton Spin. How she won only 8 of 22 states up for grabs in the Democratic Campaign, though claimed that because she carried New York and California that she won the day! Let me put it this way, Hillary: You lost big time, yesterday! You lost Middle America in a HUGE way. And if you can't carry those states in the primary, you clearly have no chance of swinging those states from red to blue! And I want to mention the numbers: Where Obama won, he won by HUGE margins. Where Clinton won, she eeked out a victory over Obama. That is very telling that Clinton is in very serious trouble.

Next, we could discuss the Republican strategy. If Clinton is in as much trouble as we could imagine, the GOP strategy is in shambles. Dick Wadhams, Colorado State Party Chair for the GOP, has declared that his plan to retake the state is to make Hillary a monkey on the back of everyone running at the lower level on the ticket. But without Hillary at the top of the ticket, could the GOP be in trouble?

What about Obama's stirring speech, and the trouble it could bring for the GOP. A pundit said it best last night on CNN... "it is easy to beat a man, but near impossible to beat a movement". The very movement that is undoing the Clinton inevitability is a danger to the GOP.

It is necessary to discuss the tactics of the conservative talking heads. Out of one side of their mouth they decry the Huckabee campaign of dirty politicking with push polling, while at the same time, and to national audiences no less, they were using fear tactics of "a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain" while challenging callers on the national stage who where Huckabee supporters... They also went as far as to declare Huckabee's campaign an insurgency campaign, directly accusing anyone who supports Huckabee as being a terrorist! There is not an American, or human for that matter, alive who does not make the following association: Insurgent = Terrorist. It's the war, stupid! Such actions are repulsive, and hypocritical.

What about discussing the news desk's reaction to the GOP race. Very strong statements like: Tonight’s biggest loser is clearly Romney; We were wrong, this is clearly a three man race; Is McCain the breakaway nominee for the GOP?

• Romney was a big loser yesterday. In every state that was actively challenged, he lost. He outspent, but was outvoted. This is sending shockwaves through the campaign, and through the pro-Romney pundits. Bill Bennett exclaimed this morning: Romney is the right guy, I don't know why America is not getting our message. Dr Bennett, perhaps it is the candidate, perhaps the message, perhaps even the tactics. The American people wholly rejected your talking points, and Romney suffered in this contest.
  
• I told you some time ago that this was a three man race. Huckabee is the true and consistent conservative on issues like 2nd amendment, life, marriage, and 10th amendment. There is something to be said for a consistent record... and Huckabee is a clear choice, not just a way to vote against Romney... it is a vote FOR these conservative principles. This is, and will continue to be a three man race to the finish.
  
• McCain is going to be hard to catch at this point. The best we can hope for now is a Howard Dean yell... There are some big contests coming up. Texas, where Huckabee had been strong until after SC. Perhaps yesterday can provide a Huckabounce to stop McCain in Texas. Washington state, which is a MCCain stronghold, may be up for grabs if other campaigns can spend some time and money there. McCain is not a lock for the GOP, but he is clearly and undeniably the front-runner.

Today is a great day for political junkies! There are headlines abound. What we need to look for is what stories the press go with, what spin they apply, and which candidates they are favoring or crutching. Stories are abound... like I said, a blogger's buffet!

Huckabee wins West Virginia!

CNN Reports that the second round of delegate counting is 100% complete:

Huckabee: 567 - 52%
Romney: 521 - 47%
McCain: 12 - 1%
Giuliani: 0 - 0%
Paul: 0 - 0%

Mike Huckabee takes first blood on Super Tuesday, and picks up 18 delegates from the state of West Virginia.

Thoughts on West Virginia Speeches

West Virginia is clearly a Huckabee / Romney state. The speeches were great, the crowd was pumped up... and now the delegates vote for this winner take 18 state.

I predict that Huckabee will win. He had the advantage of speaking last, jazzing the crowd, and speaking to the hearts of the delegates. That being said, Romney supporters had to sit through the lack-lustered McCain presentation by McCain's surrogate. The fact that Huckabee had the chance to wake this crowd up may pay big dividends!

WV gives out 30 delegates, but only 18 are being pledged today by the convention. Nine more are being handed out based on the Primary results in May... and three stay unpledged and belong to the state party... perhaps for bargaining tools.

The results should be out before 12:30 ET. That is one hour away... breath is officially being held!

Desperation in Romney Push Pre-Super Tuesday

Driving home through a mini blizzard, I decided that the best way to focus would be to listen to the AM radio, where Hugh Hewitt was having one of his Romney days.

One thing was said time and again from the ever full-of-himself Hugh, and it really upset me.

He claimed that a vote for Huckabee is a wasted vote, because "He doesn't stand a chance of winning anyway"

And he went on to take calls from McCain, Romney, and Huckabee supporters from Super Tuesday states, asking them why they support their candidate. Of course, every time a Huckabee voter was on the line, Hugh said: You know that you are throwing your vote away, and ensuring a McCain victory... Time and again, caller after caller.

HOW IS THIS ANY WORSE THAN PUSH POLLS?

FOR SHAME! Shame on Hugh, Shame on Romney's campaign for not calling in and asking him to stop, and shame on anyone who complained about groups push polling for Huckabee but who are going to remain silent in their hypocrisy! FOR SHAME!

Let me explain one thing: A vote is something very sacred, very meaningful, and should require knowledge and courage.

A vote is NEVER thrown away, if you are voting in good conscience, and are casting your ballot for what you believe!

A vote, especially in the primary process, is a vote for what you truly want on the party platform. It is a vote for the direction of the country, the direction of the party, and the candidate that you feel best represents YOUR VALUES.

You should not be scared or pushed into voting for another candidate out of fear that another might win. I will come straight out and say it... If Mitt Romney was as good as Hugh and all the pundits claim him to be, HE WOULD HAVE ALREADY TAKEN THOSE VOTES FROM HUCKABEE!

And for Mitt Romney to claim that Huckabee should drop out, and that Huck's voters belong to him... FOR SHAME on Romney to assume that he knows more about how someone who supports Huckabee should vote than they do!

This is a last ditch, desperate attempt to drive Romney's numbers up. Yet one more sleazy reason why I could never back that kind of character! Politics as usual does not cut it for me. I need a candidate with true compassion, true conscience, true understanding, and the ability to reason.

Super Bowl, Super Tuesday

Coming from Seattle, I have been trained to have a natural disdain for anything coming out of New York. However, like any reasonably stable individual, I understand that there are times when one should support a team, despite their New York status.

Add to it that I just LOVE an underdog, and I will have to admit that I was pulling for the New York Giants to upset the Pats. Let's just say that it was a very vocal and entertaining Super Bowl party at my house yesterday! What an historic game, and a very dissapointing showing from the team that was crowned the victor before the show even began.

Which leads me into Super Tuesday. Granted, the house parties will be few and far between... but I am hoping for the results to be the same.

I am invoking the name of the Underdog... who's spirit is alive and well in the wake of the Giant's upset of the Pats.
When it comes down to selecting a candidate, electiblity comes with support... it is the message that matters! Anyone is electible, if they can overcome their hurdles... what is important is the consistency of the message.

This will be the big show for both the Dems and the Republicans... and where the Democrats once lauded the GOP for such a contested race with no clear front-runner, they find themselves up to their ears in the same mud!

Who will play the role of the phoenix? Who will rise from the ashes of Super Tuesday and claim victory? Will it be Obama over Hillary? Will it be Huckabee over McCain and Romney?

The first contest is in West Virginia, whos convention concludes at 12:30 ET tomorrow. According to this WSJ site, the West Virginia contest is still wide open between all three candidates. The way West Virginia is voting is a convention, where the candidates are granted 20 minutes each... if they decide to show up. They can use that 20 minutes to woo the delegates, and go for a first round win early in the day. Romney and Huckabee are leading the state, but most delegates are uncommitted. Any candidate who shows up, especially if uncontested, will likely win the convention.

The next state to close is Georgia. Huckabee must win in this state. Georgia is a pulse on how the other Huckabee sympathetic states may vote. Since Iowa, Huckabee has failed to win any states. South Carolina was a bad blow to his momentum, and since then his supporters have been looking for a sign that his campaign has not been critically wounded. Polling shows Huckabee up in Georgia, Tennessee, and Arkansas... though his lead has eroded away since SC and Florida. Huckabee needs to make headlines today if he plans to win tomorrow!

Mitt Romney is also battling the McCain monster across the US. In my previous post, I did not predict a strong showing for Romney... But Romney has some momentum, coming out of a Maine win... (yeah, Maine voted this last weekend... who knew?)... Romney's struggle is for the top of the ticket. I have said it a number of times, Romney has made no friends in the field of candidates... should he come out behind with delegates, he may as well throw in the towel, because he can't and won't get the VP nod.

McCain has the momentum, but it may be a little too sugar coated for a lot of voters. They still remember 2000, and then the bills that he led since then. Folks are heistant to support McCain because he truly is a Republican Maverick. Can a maverick lead the party, or levaae it in disarray?

And then there is Ron Paul. I had originally counted him out of all the state contests, but he is rising in the polls as an alternate to the three that are above him. He stands a decent chance to show strength in an independent state like Alaska... I originally was calling this state for the Independent minded McCain, but Paul is the only candidate with a campaign office in the state, and any real organization on the ground. Could Ron Paul pick up Alaska?

Of course, as I said, today is the day for the candidates to make some headlines. Press conferences are nice, but resounding policy speeches are better! Now is the time to be blunt, be presidential, and hope that you can pick up those undecided voters!

Super Tuesday is a Three Man Race

Pundits say what they will, but Super Tuesday is a Three Man Race... and as such, the GOP race is as well.

John McCain picked up the endorsement of Rudy Giuliani, Fred Supporters have moved into one of the other camps, or undecideds, and the race is marching on.

John McCain surely has all the momentum going into Super Tuesday... but to call the race over is very much a jump of the gun. Not even 10% of all the delegates have been allocated, yet everyone wants to throw in the towels.

To look at who could come out on top, we need to look at the next contest. As the contest is spread out over 21 states for the GOP, it is clear that the campaign with the most money can advertise in the most locations... and that is Mitt. Unfortunately, Mitt's coffers are about as dry as the other campaigns, so each candidate is focussing on states that they need to try and win.

If all three candidates (Huckabee, McCain, Romney) come out with equal states, regardless of delegates, then Super Tuesday is a wash. If one candidate can claim victory by overwhelmingly winning the majority of the states (not just delegates), then the balance of power may shift.

Remember, these three candidates ALL look great going into Super Tuesday... They are all hovering around 20% nationally, and all seem to have a few states locked in Super Tuesday... but the close races will make or break some campaigns!

Let's take a look at the states, the challengers in those states, and the expected outcome.

Alabama (primary)- 48 delegates: Huckabee v McCain
Neither candidate is campaigning hard in this state, but Huckabee has the advantage as a Southern Governor. If Rudy's 9% jump to McCain, McCain wins the state. If Romney supporters see McCain winning the state as a bad thing, they may decide to support Huckabee as a blow to the McCain campaign. Romney holds a distant third in the state with no hope of winning. I give this state to Huckabee.

Alaska (caucus)- 29 delegates: McCain v Romney v Huckabee v Paul
This state has conducted no polling that is on record. It is a tough state to call, as it is a truly independent minded state... so much so that as recently as 1990 it elected a governor from a third party: The Alaskan Independence Party... not Independant, but independence... The party pushing for secession from the Union... like I said, a tough state to call! But I give it to McCain.

Arizona (straw poll)- 53 delegates WTA: McCain (solid)
Enough said. This is McCain country!

Arkansas (primary)- 34 delegates: Huckabee(solid)
Again, enough said. Huck holds a commanding lead on his home court!

California (primary)- 173 delegates: McCain v Romney
McCain holds the advantage going into Super Tuesday, as the Governator and Rudy both endorsed him. Good news for Romeny (projected 2nd place) and Huckabee (projected 3rd) is that California is no longer a WTA state. It is a WTA by district, which means that Romney and Huckabee can both pick up some delegates... Emphasis on "can"... Huckabee does not have the funding to campaign in this state, nor the momentum to make up a 15% deficit.

Colorado (caucus)- 46 delegates: Romney v McCain v Huckabee v Paul
This is a red state turning blue... but independents and democrats would have had to have registered as Republicans at the beginning of December if they intended to participate in caucus. Romney holds a strong lead, and will likely win. Though, word on the ground is that Ron Paul has very strong grass roots in this state, and could come out big in the straw poll. This is a state that is tough to call, though I see Romney and Paul doing well here. That being said, Romney wins CO.

Connecticut (primary)- 30 delegates WTA: McCain (solid)
McCain has risen to leads of around 20%. This is his state. Winner takes all.

Delaware (primary)- 18 delegates WTA: McCain v Romney
Huckabee is not a contender in this New England state. This was a sure Rudy win, but now the state is up for grabs. Much of the state is still undecided, but I see McCain coming out ahead.

Georgia (primary)- 72 delegates: Huckabee v McCain
This is not a WTA state, but Huckabee seems to be getting all the votes. McCain has made strides in the state after South Carolina and Florida, but Huckabee looks good in Georgia. The delegates could split between them, but I see Huckabee winning the state and taking home these Georgia delegates.

Illinois (straw poll)- 70 delegates: McCain v Huckabee v Romney v Paul
Ron Paul has polled well in this state, though he will do nothing more than play a spoiler. To whom? That is left to be seen. With Rudy out, McCain will do well in this state. I see Huckabee finishing a strong second, with Romney close behind at third. This is a tight state that has fluctuated in the polls based on who is leading the national polling. I see it as McCain, Huckabee, Romney - in that order.

Massachusetts (primary)- 43 delegates: Romney v McCain
This is a New England blood match. Romney will come out on top, but he has not been as strong in his home state as Huckabee and McCain have been in theirs. This is very telling. This is a two man race in MA. The winner, Romney.

Minnesota (caucus)- 41 delegates: McCain v Huckabee
This state is a McCain strong hold. They usually are more liberal voters, and McCain appeals to their needs. McCain will win this state, with Huckabee finishing a strong second.

Missouri (primary)- 58 delegates WTA: Huckabee v Romney v McCain
Huck and Mitt both have this state in their must win bags. McCain is strong because of his recent big wins, but the state may be more inclined to follow Huckabee. I see Huckabee and McCain battling it out for the win in this state, with Romney taking third. For now, I give the state to Huckabee.

Montana (caucus)- 25 delegates WTA: Huckabee v Romney v Paul v McCain
This has not been a widely disputed state. The voters tend to be both strongly conservative and independent. Huckabee and Romney should do well in this state. Huckabee may win.

New Jersey (primary)- 52 delegates WTA: McCain v Romney
With Rudy out, McCain will win this state. Winner take's all, so Romney should spend his money elsewhere.

New York (primary)- 101 delegates WTA: McCain v Romney
The state that Rudy could not win, yet it was his home turf. Another WTA state, Romney is going to finish at least 15% back. Again, that is money better spent elsewhere.

North Dakota (caucus)- 26 delegates WTA: Huckabee v Romney v McCain
As another WTA state, Romney and McCain should seek delegates elsewhere. This is Huckabee country.

Oklahoma (primary)- 41 delegates: Huckabee v McCain
These delegates will be split between Huckabee and McCain. I predict a Huckabee win, as he has held up well against McCain despite the momentum of the Mac. Huckabee wins Oklahoma.

Tennessee (primary)- 55 delegates: McCain v Huckabee
Since Fred left this state wide open, Huckabee and McCain have both polled very well amongst voters. McCain will likely win, but not by much. I call this state a virtual tie between the top two contenders.

Utah (primary)- 36 delegates WTA: Romney (solid)
If there was any doubt here, the doubter was in trouble. Romney will take all the Utah delegates.
West Virginia (convention)- 30 delegates WTA: Huckabee v McCain
McCain will likely win this state, as it liked Rudy early on. Huckabee will do well, though he won't likely spend any money here... Romeny will finish third. Unfortunately for Huckabee and Romney, this is a winner take's all state.

My Super Tuesday state count is as follows:
Huckabee: +7 states: AL, AR, GA, MO, MT, ND, OK
McCain: +11 states: AK, AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MN, NJ, NY, TN, WV
Romney: +3 states: CO, MA, UT
Paul: +0 states:

There are surely some close races, but this is definately a three contender race! After Super Tuesday, Virginia and Maryland vote on Feb 12th. Both states look good for McCain. A week later Washington and Wisconsin will vote, which will go to McCain and Huckabee respectively (if ST goes the way I predicted). Then comes March 4th, with Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island. Huckabee and McCain are battling it out for Texas. Huckabee has led Texas for some time, and will likely win if all goes as above. This is a huge state for Huckabee. Vermont and RI are are McCain wins, hands down.

The way that I see it, where Romney and McCain face off, Romney is not doing so well. Romney has a solid base in his home states, but I cannot see him making up in the polls in all of those states. There are many where he is not even close.

The Convention could still be brokered, even though McCain will go in ahead. Should Romney drop after a poor Super Tuesday showing, it will be McCain and Huckabee, and the ticket will likely be set-up in that order. Should Romney upset McCain in a shocking reversal of fortune on Super Tuesday, The convention will be very close, but brokered nonetheless. Should McCain go in ahead, I do not see him picking Romney as a running mate. The only hope for Romney is a full out win.

Political Spin Post Fred Thompson

There has been much speculation about where the "Fred-Heads" will be going now that Thompson is out of the race. I have heard a lot of vocal and angry supporters of Fred who will want nothing to do with Huckabee... These are most likely the individuals who fought the Huckabee supporters so hard back when Huck was at 2% and the Huckamaniacs were chomping at the bit to get a piece of Fred Thompson, who was stealing Huck's spot as the only social conservative in the race.

Things have sure changed since last July!

But I had to comment on one report that I just saw, which was BOASTING that Fred Thompson supporters were flocking to Mitt Romney. In this post, it was stated that in California, 30% of Thompson supporters identified that Romney was their 2nd choice.

The spin, is that they are NOT reporting that 70% of Thompson supporters in California are NOT supporting Romney as their 2nd choice.

This is all political fun and fluff... but I just had to call 'em on it! 30 < 70 ... nothing to boast about!

GOP: So, Who Has the Momentum Again?

It is January 24th, 2008... Five days before the Florida showdown... Twelve days before Super Tuesday. A number of contests have cleared the field of candidates who failed to materialize, leaving behind a race that is as out of the ordinary as a San Francisco Conservative.

Huckabee claimed first blood in Iowa, taking the state from the long time favorite there, Mitt Romney. The Huckaboom had paid off, and Huck's momentum was back.

Fast on his tail was John McCain, perhaps in anticipation of his contest in New Hampshire, where Independents were able to rally behind their man as they did 8 years prior. John McCain's win in New Hampshire helped further propel his numbers in the positive direction, giving him the highest level of support since entering the race over a year ago.

Meanwhile, smaller and less contested races were taking place in states like Wyoming, Michigan, and Nevada... Victories out of these states heralded little notice by the press, but the delegates counted just the same as in the traditional early states. Mitt Romney's victories in these widely uncontested states did little to add to his momentum, though there is something to be said for leading the delegate count before Super Tuesday, and that is the headline he was hoping for.

Rudy Guiliani has yet to break 10% in a contest in the early states. His strategy of "Go Big or Go Home", where he is playing in states with only sizable delegate counts, has done little more than employ an army of campaign eulogy writers... but for Rudy, there is always Florida, right?

And all the while, Ron Paul and his supporters, after stacking every online poll in an attempt to appear as a front-runner, has been unable to muster more than 5% nationally in the polls, and has had his best showing in an uncontested Nevada, where he placed a very distant 2nd.

So I ask the question... Who has the momentum again?

The answer is simply: No One!

Fred Thompson's drop from the race, and lack of an expected endorsement, has left a large field of undecided voters hesitant to join any one campaign. The lack of a McCain endorsement has further served to help add gravity to McCain's falling national numbers, as voters remember why his campaign imploded over the summer: Immigration.

Duncan Hunter, yesterday, in an attempt to help swings some momentum in the direction of the Social Conservatives, endorsed Mike Huckabee... unfortunately this endorsement received little fanfare from the media, as they have all but declared the Huckabee campaign a bust. Huckabee is doing little to help his own campaign by not aggressively pursuing Thompson's supporters. Instead his campaign released a short press advisory welcoming support... while at the same time his campaign Chairman Chip Saltzman took a hit at Fred Thompson on the Mike Huckabee Campaign Blog. Huckabee missed an opportunity to claim victory in SC after the contest, by claiming that Fred's withdrawal, had it happened prior to the race, would have made him the clear victor.

Rudy's numbers have flatlined, which for him is a good thing at this point. A flatline is much better than the nose-dive he was seeing. This hesitation in the plummet may be temporary, unless he can pull off a come from behind win in Florida. Rudy's only source of momentum is anticipation of Florida... but all the momentum leads up to is a simple "no change".

Mitt Romney seems unable to break the invisible barrier of 16% in the national polls. His campaign had surged in the past, only to hit 16% and fall... rising again, only to fall again... he is at 15.8%, but the trend is ominous for his campaign!

It is hard to say what will happen in the debate tonight, but easy to see what must be done. There is a new flood of undecided Thompson voters that could cling to a new campaign and propel that campaign to the White House. Every person left on that stage needs to spend tonight aggressively wooing the ex-Fred-heads. The candidate who stands to pick up the votes MUST be conservative socially (this excludes Rudy and potentially McCain), must be strong, and must actually ASK for their support... no subtleties... now is not the time!

With no momentum from any candidate, no clear front-runner, and all candidates within 10% of being the leader on a very fluid scale... We start tonight at square ONE!

Fred Thompson Drops Bid

As of 2:00 PM MT on Tuesday Jan 22nd, Fmr Senator Fred Thompson is no longer continuing his bid for the White House.

The candidate that broke into the scene with authority and inevitability this summer had trouble maintaining his early surge of popularity, and subsequently, of organizing an effective campaign leading up to the Super Tuesday showdown. After a series of very disappointing showings, Thompson has announced that he will be withdrawing from the race.

Thompson has decided not to make an endorsement in the race between the remaining candidates, which could prove to be a boost to the Huckabee campaign, and a hit to Romney and McCain who could have used such an endorsement to clearly come ahead as the front-runner.

Now, with a new field of candidates, all eyes are on Florida!

My Thoughts in a post SC world...

There are ten days between SC and Florida... and another week after that until Super Tuesday. So what do the next two weeks hold in store?

We have already seen Duncan Hunter drop the race after a predictably poor showing in SC.

So who is next?

The headlines of the morning papers today, as seen on eGOPnews.com, are hinting that Fred Thompson is considering dropping the race after he was able to do little more than play the spoiler to the Huckabee campaign... of course they hinted at that before... but Fred had said that he needed a win or a strong second in SC to have a chance. And anyone who watched Fred's concession speech were left scratching their heads, wondering if he botched a withdrawal speech, or if he was trying to rally the troops on into Florida:



The AP Reports:

Despite the situation, Thompson was expected to bow out after failing to
win the states where he had hoped to perform strongly, Iowa and South Carolina.
The former Tennessee senator and "Law & Order" actor returned home after
delivering a speech in South Carolina on Saturday that sounded like he was
calling it quits. He stopped short of doing so but some supporters suspected it
would only be a matter of time before Thompson withdraws.

Before South Carolina, several aides had said he probably would need to
finish first or a strong second in that race to go forward. Aides didn't expect
a decision from Thompson until sometime after the weekend.

With Fred Thompson out, the race will become a McCain, Huckabee, Romney, Rudy contest... heading into Florida where they are all within 7 points of one another, it will be a race to distinguish the have's from the have-not's in the GOP Primary.

Current poll averages have the top four hovering around 20%, and Thompson & Paul way behind the field with 8.5 and 5 points respectively.

Should Thompson drop, and likely endorse McCain, one would wonder if Fred's social conservatives could get behind McCain, who has been no friend to Social issues... Rudy and Romney will likely not benefit from Fred's voters as much as McCain and Huckabee will. Should those votes distribute evenly, we should expect similar results as we saw in SC happening in Florida.

If Fred does not drop out, it will likely only serve to keep Huckabee's numbers low and help his friend McCain, as was the case in SC.

Moving into Super Tuesday without Fred could definitely shake things up. None of the top four are out, but Rudy is close, especially without Florida.

We should all listen very hard to any chatter coming out of the Thompson campaign. Once he makes a move to stay in or get out, we can better handicap the Florida race.

One thing is certain... Romney is counting on a brokered convention, where his wins in uncontested states may help... at least until Super Tuesday... then he could find himself falling to the rear of the pack... But when you have a brokered convention, every delegate counts!

I will provide updates if any news breaks...

How Will SC Vote Today?

And another contest begins in the presidential race of 2008 today. South Carolina's voting polls are open and only time will tell what the results are.

Some interesting happenings over the last days since Michigan... Mitt Romney is in search of delegates, hoping that delegate count in the "jump to the front" states will mean more than the traditional "first in the nation" states. He had abandoned his campaign in SC, claiming that 4th would be a victory, and instead opted to aim for Nevada, a Mormon stronghold, and a state also offering about ten more delegates. He took a similar approach in Wyoming, a Mormon state, where he was the only candidate who honestly campaigned in the state. He and Duncan Hunter were big winners in Wyoming... so that says something, I suppose.

But what about South Carolina? The state in which no GOP candidate of recent years has lost, but gone on to receive the GOP nomination. A state with strong ties to faith, independence, civil rights issues, and agrarian history. It is a state which encompasses the values of Iowa and New Hampshire... And it is truly a state which must be won by many in the GOP field today if they wish to continue the race for the GOP nomination.

Time for my predictions:

Huckabee........30%
McCain.............26%
Thompson.......19%
Romney.............14%
Rudy.....................6%
Paul......................5%

What does this mean?

Romney has made it clear that he plans to hold out for delegates. As I see this being a brokered convention, this is a smart move. He may be in the lead with delegates now, but he will find himself in the middle of the pack after Super Tuesday. Recent polling has shown that he is not doing well in a majority of the Super Tuesday states.

McCain will lick his wounds and live to fight another day... namely in Florida, where he and Rudy seem to be leading the polls... surely, though, a loss in SC will make Florida a hard win. And his recent surge in the national polls will likely be busted in favor of the SC winner.

Mike Huckabee, if he does get the win as I am predicting, will see another surge of support, similar to his Huckaboom of December, and his resurgence after Iowa (though short lived because of NH). Mike Huckabee is a contender in Florida, and has many states locked up in the Super Tuesday contest. He may come out 2nd or possibly 1st after super tuesday (in delegates) with a commanding win in SC. A second place finish will likely ensure a VP consideration, especially if it kills any chance of gaining momentum before Super Tuesday.

Thompson is plagued with 4th place finishes across the board so far, and one tie for third in Iowa. If South Carolina doesn't pan out for Thompson, he will have some serious soul searching to do. The best Thompson may hope for is a McCain victory, and a VP nod from his good friend... However, a surprise win or 2nd place finish tonight could give this summer's "Mr. Inevitable" a breath of life, and potentially a surge of support and delegates heading into Super Tuesday.

Rudy is still holding out for Florida, but as I have said before, with no momentum, no headlines, and waning support. This may be the biggest blunder in presidential campaigning since the Howard Dean scream... YYYEEEEAAAAHHHH!

All eyes are on SC. And for those looking ahead to Super Tuesday, what can we expect to see?

If my prediction of SC is correct, I expect the following:
*WTA = Winner Takes All delegates (by districts or entire state)

Alabama (primary - WTA districts - 48): Huckabee
Alaska (caucus - 29): Huckabee
Arizona (straw poll - WTA state - 53): McCain
Arkansas (primary - WTA district - 34): Huckabee
California (primary - WTA district - 173): Rudy (if he wins Florida)
Colorado (caucus - 46): Huckabee
Connecticut (primary - WTA state - 30): Rudy
Delaware (primary - WTA state - 18): Rudy
Georgia (primary - WTA district - 72): Huckabee
Illinois (straw poll - 70): Huckabee
Massachusetts (primary - 43): Romney
Minnesota (caucus - 41): Huckabee
Missouri (primary - WTA state - 58): Rudy
Montana (caucus - WTA state - 25): Huckabee
New Jersey (primary - WTA state - 52): Rudy
New York (primary - WTA state - 101): Rudy
North Dakota (caucus - WTA state - 26): Huckabee
Oklahoma (primary - WTA district - 41): Huckabee
Tennessee (primary - 55): Thompson
Utah (primary - WTA state - 36): Romney
West Virginia (convention - WTA - 30): Huckabee

Delegate count is nearly impossible, because some states are WTA by district, or proportional... But, let's look at total number of states won:

Rudy: 6 of 21
Huckabee: 11 of 21
McCain: 1 of 21
Romney: 2 of 21
Thompson: 1 of 21

Let's see how SC plays out, and I will be glad to modify these numbers. My predictions come from latest polls in those states, or state voting trends (by issues) where polls where not available, as well as predicted bumps by the predicted SC and Florida finishes.

Republican Race Open, but not THAT Open

This blog is in response to a comment on my previous post, by Ben Degrow over at Mt Virtus. His comment reads:

Respectfully...You wrote in an earlier post: "Should Mitt Romney take the top spot in Michigan, he and Huckabee will battle it out in SC, where it will likely be Huckabee's last stand." Given this previous statement and the fact that Huckabee SC shares are not selling at all on Intrades, do you see anything in tonight's modest 3rd-place MI performance (you predicted he would win here, so this has got to be a big disappointment) to turn around his plummeting SC numbers? Do you see SC as a 3-way race between McCain, Romney, & Thompson (whom you earlier predicted would dropout after the Iowa caucuses)? Do you still think Thompson will have an"embarrassing finish" in SC and withdraw? After this unexpected turn of events (Huckabee in IA, McCain in NH, now Romney in MI), how big of an opening do you see for Rudy's strategy to pay off? Do you agree that this race will continue to defy the pundits & the predictions? (http://bendegrow.com/2008/romney-wins-now-what/)

Let me first begin by congratulating Mitt Romney on his win in Michigan. Michigan was always a pro Romney state, but the big surprise was the McCain surge, making Huckabee a non-player in the state. Ben is right on, and I agree that this race is still open... and it will continue to defy the pundits and predictions... However, without predictions, what fun is it in tracking the race so closely?

Regarding Romney's landslide... we must consider the fact that Michigan is an open priamry state, and the Democrats had nothing to vote for on their ticket... so:

Michigan's open primary means Republicans, Democrats, and independents can all
vote in it. Since there's no contested primary on the Dem side, their
participation in the GOP contest could be a wild card. Daily Kos steward
Markos Moulitsas, hoping desperately to be mistaken for a Machiavellian genius,
is encouraging his minions to vote for Romney for mischief's sake, under the
assumption that if he doesn't win today, he drops out. Kos reasons his
side prefers Romney staying in the race so that the well-funded bloodsport of
primary battling will continue among Republicans, presumably injuring the
eventual nominee.

Let's discuss how open the race is, and what SC means to which candidates.

Ben, who is a Fred Thompson guy, seems to be holding out for Thompson in SC. And Fred Thompson, who seems to sometimes be a Fred Thompson guy, is also holding out for something big in SC. I just don't see that happening. Fred is in SC, trying to make his stand, but doing so with absolutely no momentum from the first three contests. In the state, Fred Thompson support has gone from over 20% to just under 10% in the last three months... and nothing has happened to suggest a boomlet in Thompson's favor. I still stand by my word that this may be Thompson's last stand. Anything less than a 2nd place finish for Thompson in SC kills any chance for a momentum boomlet. (My Iowa prediction of Thomspon's withdrawal was hampered by a close third place battle between he and McCain, which almost forced him to stay in and take a stand in SC... but it did not help his numbers... they continue to fall)

So to answer the question of "is SC really a McCain, Romney, Thompson showdown?"... the answer is no... the race is open, but not that open! And Huckabee is still alive and well in the Palmetto State. Romney's win yesterday likely stifled McCain's boom, but I don't think it hurt Huckabee... What is hurting Huckabee is the McCain boom... so Romney's wion can only help Huckabee in SC. Based on the intensity of McCain's surge post NH, which was unforeseen at the time I made the two man race prediction, SC is very much a three way race. But Thompson is not in the top three. It will be a Huckabee, McCain, Romney battle in SC. Thompson, unless he can muster up some momentum in the next week, will likely be finished... I know I predicted a withdrawal after Iowa, but maybe the old man stays in to be part of the delegate race. The 4th place finish will be an embarrassment to the Thompson campaign. Remember, Thompson was elevated to savior status before getting into the race. He has, arguably, yet to finish above 4th (or 200 votes from finishing 4th in Iowa)

Regarding the Intratrade... I visited the intratrade site, and there was not an option to buy Huckabee stock in the state. He is not listed. Never was. So I am not using that as a measuring device.

The race is open... indeed! It could not be looking better for Rudy in Florida, though I think his decision to sit out the early contests likely makes him a non-contender in Super Tuesday states now... perhaps Florida could turn that around.

But what do I see in my crystal ball?

For starters, I will tell you what I did NOT see. I did NOT see McCain having such an effective surge... especially in the wake of the Illegal Immigration Shamnesty plan that he tried to ram down our throats. Maybe Tancredo's withdrawal from the race took some of that pressure off McCain, and the issue out of the limelight.

I did NOT see Rudy falling off as much as he has! Rudy is currently polling nationally at 13%, tied with Romney for a distant 3rd. By the time we get to Florida, Rudy will likely be battling Fred in national polls for 4th, somewhere around 10%. That is not a good place to be heading into Super Duper Tuesday.

And I did NOT see Ron Paul beating out Thompson in a state like Michigan. That doesn't do much for Ron Paul at this point, but it doesn't say much for Thompson's support in the state of Michigan.

At this point, we need to take a compass reading. Nevada will likely not give us that reading. Nevada is so wide open, and clearly blowing in the direction of the momentum, that it will likely be a race between the top four: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee, Romney.

If McCain takes SC, McCain will likely win out. If Huckabee takes SC, it will likely move the battle to a two man race on super tuesday. If Romney takes SC, Huckabee's run is likely over, and McCain will likely win out on Super Tuesday, with Romney and Huckabee finishing in a series of 2nds and 3rds... obviously some 1st's in their stronghold states. I don't see Rudy's plan paying off, and I don't see Fred Thompson as a major player anymore.

I am still predicting a brokered convention...

One thing that I know is that the water is very muddy leading up to Super Tuesday!

God Bless!