It has been a long three months since the Iowa caucuses, and the GOP has been subject to one of the most bloody battles in my lifetime. With four candidates duking it out today for regional, delegate, and potentially total contest dominance, I am left pondering the expected results, the coming contests, and the oddities that I have seen heading into this political milestone.
There are a few things that could make or break these predictions, namely how well Gingrich performs outside of the south, and how well Santorum performs in general against Romney.
Gingrich will win in his home state of Georgia. There is no doubt there. If Gingrich wins any state outside of Georgia, he will stay in the race, gobbling up delegates in the south. Watch for Newt in Tennessee. However, if Newt cannot win in TN, he will not have the momentum going forward into Alabama and Mississippi in one week... save a collapse by Santorum, which could be cause for another Gingrich rise. If he loses, and loses hard, and if Santorum turns around his misfortunes of the past week and a half, I have this feeling that Gingrich drops the bid and endorses......... Ron Paul.
Wait... did I just say Ron Paul?
I did. For two reasons. Watch Gingrich's performance in the last debate. He gave an unusual amount of praise to Paul. Read any article ro listen to any interview with Gingrich of late, and he finds a way to incorporate Paul or Paul's message... this includes Paul's foreign policy. I ignored it at first, but then found it odd that he seemed to be massaging his position to align with Paul. It is a long shot... and as long as Gingrich sees a weakness in Santorum he will stay in... but IF he does drop, I would bet $5 that it is a drop in favor of the non-Santorum anti-Romney candidate.
Santorum... who's numbers are falling, needs to survive Super Tuesday. He does that by a win in Ohio. Romney may have weakened him enough in that state, pummelling him with money. Santorum needs Ohio, he neesd Alaska, he needs Oklahoma and North Dakota. He needs his regional mid-west wins... but more importantly he needs a win in the Rust Belt. If he cannot beat Romney in Ohio, it is my prediction that Santorum begins lobbying Romney for VP or a high ranking cabinet position prior to dropping and endorsing Romney.
Happy Super Tuesday!
Showing posts with label super tuesday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label super tuesday. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Before the results, my thoughts on Super Tuesday II
This could very well be my last post on Mike Huckabee and his bid for the GOP longshot nomination. Mike Huckabee's remaining in the race has been for the sole purposes of giving conservatives a voice as McCain moved towards the nomination. Pulling in 41% in Virginia and 38% in Wisconsin should be enough of a message to John McCain that he needs to pick a cabinet, and run a White House that will not isolate the conservative movement.
We will have from tomorrow until November to determine if John McCain is going to reach out to the right as hard as he has reached out to the left.
Regarding today... can Mike Huckabee pull an upset? With Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont on the chopping block, I see Huckabee doing well in Texas alone... the rest will go to McCain overwhelmingly... likely giving McCain his required delegates to secure the nomination. But I have to give Mike Huckabee kudos for running an honest, positive, and on message campaign, while sticking to his word that he would stay in it to ensure the conservatives have a voice.
I'm not eulogizing Huckabee's campaign yet... but regardless of the outcome, I have much respect for the man, for his message, and his willingness to listen to the people, the bloggers, and the late night comedians... which has always been entertaining.
We will have from tomorrow until November to determine if John McCain is going to reach out to the right as hard as he has reached out to the left.
Regarding today... can Mike Huckabee pull an upset? With Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont on the chopping block, I see Huckabee doing well in Texas alone... the rest will go to McCain overwhelmingly... likely giving McCain his required delegates to secure the nomination. But I have to give Mike Huckabee kudos for running an honest, positive, and on message campaign, while sticking to his word that he would stay in it to ensure the conservatives have a voice.
I'm not eulogizing Huckabee's campaign yet... but regardless of the outcome, I have much respect for the man, for his message, and his willingness to listen to the people, the bloggers, and the late night comedians... which has always been entertaining.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Through Super Tuesday, County Results
Hat tip to Suitably Flip for providing this map!
And of course, Flip provides a hat tip to Wikipedia for providing the early version of the map. It is interesting to see the counties where each of the GOP candidates received the win. In the south, excluding Florida, Romney's only support are in a few dense urban areas... The same seems to hold true for McCain in the South. This should come as no suprise to anyone, as Southerners tend to rally behind their Southern Brothers... and as such, Huckabee pulled the upset in the southern states.
The results I find most interesting are in Wisconsin and Montana, where the campaigns had little time to organize state-wide efforts. In effect, you see an accurate representation of what grass-roots only states look like. It is beautiful!
And of course, Flip provides a hat tip to Wikipedia for providing the early version of the map. It is interesting to see the counties where each of the GOP candidates received the win. In the south, excluding Florida, Romney's only support are in a few dense urban areas... The same seems to hold true for McCain in the South. This should come as no suprise to anyone, as Southerners tend to rally behind their Southern Brothers... and as such, Huckabee pulled the upset in the southern states.The results I find most interesting are in Wisconsin and Montana, where the campaigns had little time to organize state-wide efforts. In effect, you see an accurate representation of what grass-roots only states look like. It is beautiful!
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
The Super Tuesday Hangover
Forget the Monday morning after Super Bowl hangover... this is the Wednesday morning after Super Duper Tuesday hangover! Though I would say that it is less of a hangover, and more of a bloggers buffet! There are so many stories to discuss, it is hard to know where to start.
We could discuss the Clinton Spin. How she won only 8 of 22 states up for grabs in the Democratic Campaign, though claimed that because she carried New York and California that she won the day! Let me put it this way, Hillary: You lost big time, yesterday! You lost Middle America in a HUGE way. And if you can't carry those states in the primary, you clearly have no chance of swinging those states from red to blue! And I want to mention the numbers: Where Obama won, he won by HUGE margins. Where Clinton won, she eeked out a victory over Obama. That is very telling that Clinton is in very serious trouble.
Next, we could discuss the Republican strategy. If Clinton is in as much trouble as we could imagine, the GOP strategy is in shambles. Dick Wadhams, Colorado State Party Chair for the GOP, has declared that his plan to retake the state is to make Hillary a monkey on the back of everyone running at the lower level on the ticket. But without Hillary at the top of the ticket, could the GOP be in trouble?
What about Obama's stirring speech, and the trouble it could bring for the GOP. A pundit said it best last night on CNN... "it is easy to beat a man, but near impossible to beat a movement". The very movement that is undoing the Clinton inevitability is a danger to the GOP.
It is necessary to discuss the tactics of the conservative talking heads. Out of one side of their mouth they decry the Huckabee campaign of dirty politicking with push polling, while at the same time, and to national audiences no less, they were using fear tactics of "a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain" while challenging callers on the national stage who where Huckabee supporters... They also went as far as to declare Huckabee's campaign an insurgency campaign, directly accusing anyone who supports Huckabee as being a terrorist! There is not an American, or human for that matter, alive who does not make the following association: Insurgent = Terrorist. It's the war, stupid! Such actions are repulsive, and hypocritical.
What about discussing the news desk's reaction to the GOP race. Very strong statements like: Tonight’s biggest loser is clearly Romney; We were wrong, this is clearly a three man race; Is McCain the breakaway nominee for the GOP?
We could discuss the Clinton Spin. How she won only 8 of 22 states up for grabs in the Democratic Campaign, though claimed that because she carried New York and California that she won the day! Let me put it this way, Hillary: You lost big time, yesterday! You lost Middle America in a HUGE way. And if you can't carry those states in the primary, you clearly have no chance of swinging those states from red to blue! And I want to mention the numbers: Where Obama won, he won by HUGE margins. Where Clinton won, she eeked out a victory over Obama. That is very telling that Clinton is in very serious trouble.
Next, we could discuss the Republican strategy. If Clinton is in as much trouble as we could imagine, the GOP strategy is in shambles. Dick Wadhams, Colorado State Party Chair for the GOP, has declared that his plan to retake the state is to make Hillary a monkey on the back of everyone running at the lower level on the ticket. But without Hillary at the top of the ticket, could the GOP be in trouble?
What about Obama's stirring speech, and the trouble it could bring for the GOP. A pundit said it best last night on CNN... "it is easy to beat a man, but near impossible to beat a movement". The very movement that is undoing the Clinton inevitability is a danger to the GOP.
It is necessary to discuss the tactics of the conservative talking heads. Out of one side of their mouth they decry the Huckabee campaign of dirty politicking with push polling, while at the same time, and to national audiences no less, they were using fear tactics of "a vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain" while challenging callers on the national stage who where Huckabee supporters... They also went as far as to declare Huckabee's campaign an insurgency campaign, directly accusing anyone who supports Huckabee as being a terrorist! There is not an American, or human for that matter, alive who does not make the following association: Insurgent = Terrorist. It's the war, stupid! Such actions are repulsive, and hypocritical.
What about discussing the news desk's reaction to the GOP race. Very strong statements like: Tonight’s biggest loser is clearly Romney; We were wrong, this is clearly a three man race; Is McCain the breakaway nominee for the GOP?
- Romney was a big loser yesterday. In every state that was actively challenged, he lost. He outspent, but was outvoted. This is sending shockwaves through the campaign, and through the pro-Romney pundits. Bill Bennett exclaimed this morning: Romney is the right guy, I don't know why America is not getting our message. Dr Bennett, perhaps it is the candidate, perhaps the message, perhaps even the tactics. The American people wholly rejected your talking points, and Romney suffered in this contest.
- I told you some time ago that this was a three man race. Huckabee is the true and consistent conservative on issues like 2nd amendment, life, marriage, and 10th amendment. There is something to be said for a consistent record... and Huckabee is a clear choice, not just a way to vote against Romney... it is a vote FOR these conservative principles. This is, and will continue to be a three man race to the finish.
- McCain is going to be hard to catch at this point. The best we can hope for now is a Howard Dean yell... There are some big contests coming up. Texas, where Huckabee had been strong until after SC. Perhaps yesterday can provide a Huckabounce to stop McCain in Texas. Washington state, which is a MCCain stronghold, may be up for grabs if other campaigns can spend some time and money there. McCain is not a lock for the GOP, but he is clearly and undeniably the front-runner.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Super Tuesday Predictions - updated with results
My Super Tuesday state count prediction is as follows:
REPUBLICANS:
Huckabee: +7 states: AL, AR, GA, MO, ND, TN, WV
McCain: +9 states: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MN, NJ, NY, OK
Romney: +4 states: CO, MA, MT, UT
Paul: +1 state: AK
DEMOCRATS:
Clinton: + 11 states: AL, AZ, AR, DE, MA, MN, NJ, NY, ND, OK, TN,
Obama: + 11 states: AK, CA, CO, CT, GA, ID, IL, KS, MO, NM, UT
UPDATE: RESULTS
Romney has just won the WV Convention: Romney 41%, Huckabee 33%, McCain 16%, Paul 10% - Apparently, this was first round of voting results. To get the 18 delegates and the state, a candidate must get more than 50% of the votes. This contest is still open!
-Mike Huckabee wins in WV with 52% over Romney's 47% and McCain's 1%
-Obama is projected early winner in GA
Candidate Results are as follows: (state I called incorrectly in red)
REPUBLICANS:
Huckabee: +5 states: AL, AR, GA, TN, WV
McCain: +9 states: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NY, NJ, OK
Romney: +7 states: AK, CO, MN, ND, UT, MT, MA
Paul:
DEMOCRATS:
Clinton:+8 states: AR, AZ, CA, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN
Obama: +14 states: AK, AL, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, NM, UT,
REPUBLICANS:
Huckabee: +7 states: AL, AR, GA, MO, ND, TN, WV
McCain: +9 states: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MN, NJ, NY, OK
Romney: +4 states: CO, MA, MT, UT
Paul: +1 state: AK
DEMOCRATS:
Clinton: + 11 states: AL, AZ, AR, DE, MA, MN, NJ, NY, ND, OK, TN,
Obama: + 11 states: AK, CA, CO, CT, GA, ID, IL, KS, MO, NM, UT
UPDATE: RESULTS
Romney has just won the WV Convention: Romney 41%, Huckabee 33%, McCain 16%, Paul 10% - Apparently, this was first round of voting results. To get the 18 delegates and the state, a candidate must get more than 50% of the votes. This contest is still open!
-Mike Huckabee wins in WV with 52% over Romney's 47% and McCain's 1%
-Obama is projected early winner in GA
Candidate Results are as follows: (state I called incorrectly in red)
REPUBLICANS:
Huckabee: +5 states: AL, AR, GA, TN, WV
McCain: +9 states: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NY, NJ, OK
Romney: +7 states: AK, CO, MN, ND, UT, MT, MA
Paul:
DEMOCRATS:
Clinton:+8 states: AR, AZ, CA, MA, NJ, NY, OK, TN
Obama: +14 states: AK, AL, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, NM, UT,
Friday, February 1, 2008
Super Tuesday is a Three Man Race
Pundits say what they will, but Super Tuesday is a Three Man Race... and as such, the GOP race is as well.John McCain picked up the endorsement of Rudy Giuliani, Fred Supporters have moved into one of the other camps, or undecideds, and the race is marching on.
John McCain surely has all the momentum going into Super Tuesday... but to call the race over is very much a jump of the gun. Not even 10% of all the delegates have been allocated, yet everyone wants to throw in the towels.
To look at who could come out on top, we need to look at the next contest. As the contest is spread out over 21 states for the GOP, it is clear that the campaign with the most money can advertise in the most locations... and that is Mitt. Unfortunately, Mitt's coffers are about as dry as the other campaigns, so each candidate is focussing on states that they need to try and win.
If all three candidates (Huckabee, McCain, Romney) come out with equal states, regardless of delegates, then Super Tuesday is a wash. If one candidate can claim victory by overwhelmingly winning the majority of the states (not just delegates), then the balance of power may shift.
Remember, these three candidates ALL look great going into Super Tuesday... They are all hovering around 20% nationally, and all seem to have a few states locked in Super Tuesday... but the close races will make or break some campaigns!
Let's take a look at the states, the challengers in those states, and the expected outcome.
Alabama (primary)- 48 delegates: Huckabee v McCain
Neither candidate is campaigning hard in this state, but Huckabee has the advantage as a Southern Governor. If Rudy's 9% jump to McCain, McCain wins the state. If Romney supporters see McCain winning the state as a bad thing, they may decide to support Huckabee as a blow to the McCain campaign. Romney holds a distant third in the state with no hope of winning. I give this state to Huckabee.
Alaska (caucus)- 29 delegates: McCain v Romney v Huckabee v Paul
This state has conducted no polling that is on record. It is a tough state to call, as it is a truly independent minded state... so much so that as recently as 1990 it elected a governor from a third party: The Alaskan Independence Party... not Independant, but independence... The party pushing for secession from the Union... like I said, a tough state to call! But I give it to McCain.
Arizona (straw poll)- 53 delegates WTA: McCain (solid)
Enough said. This is McCain country!
Arkansas (primary)- 34 delegates: Huckabee(solid)
Again, enough said. Huck holds a commanding lead on his home court!
California (primary)- 173 delegates: McCain v Romney
McCain holds the advantage going into Super Tuesday, as the Governator and Rudy both endorsed him. Good news for Romeny (projected 2nd place) and Huckabee (projected 3rd) is that California is no longer a WTA state. It is a WTA by district, which means that Romney and Huckabee can both pick up some delegates... Emphasis on "can"... Huckabee does not have the funding to campaign in this state, nor the momentum to make up a 15% deficit.
Colorado (caucus)- 46 delegates: Romney v McCain v Huckabee v Paul
This is a red state turning blue... but independents and democrats would have had to have registered as Republicans at the beginning of December if they intended to participate in caucus. Romney holds a strong lead, and will likely win. Though, word on the ground is that Ron Paul has very strong grass roots in this state, and could come out big in the straw poll. This is a state that is tough to call, though I see Romney and Paul doing well here. That being said, Romney wins CO.
Connecticut (primary)- 30 delegates WTA: McCain (solid)
McCain has risen to leads of around 20%. This is his state. Winner takes all.
Delaware (primary)- 18 delegates WTA: McCain v Romney
Huckabee is not a contender in this New England state. This was a sure Rudy win, but now the state is up for grabs. Much of the state is still undecided, but I see McCain coming out ahead.
Georgia (primary)- 72 delegates: Huckabee v McCain
This is not a WTA state, but Huckabee seems to be getting all the votes. McCain has made strides in the state after South Carolina and Florida, but Huckabee looks good in Georgia. The delegates could split between them, but I see Huckabee winning the state and taking home these Georgia delegates.
Illinois (straw poll)- 70 delegates: McCain v Huckabee v Romney v Paul
Ron Paul has polled well in this state, though he will do nothing more than play a spoiler. To whom? That is left to be seen. With Rudy out, McCain will do well in this state. I see Huckabee finishing a strong second, with Romney close behind at third. This is a tight state that has fluctuated in the polls based on who is leading the national polling. I see it as McCain, Huckabee, Romney - in that order.
Massachusetts (primary)- 43 delegates: Romney v McCain
This is a New England blood match. Romney will come out on top, but he has not been as strong in his home state as Huckabee and McCain have been in theirs. This is very telling. This is a two man race in MA. The winner, Romney.
Minnesota (caucus)- 41 delegates: McCain v Huckabee
This state is a McCain strong hold. They usually are more liberal voters, and McCain appeals to their needs. McCain will win this state, with Huckabee finishing a strong second.
Missouri (primary)- 58 delegates WTA: Huckabee v Romney v McCain
Huck and Mitt both have this state in their must win bags. McCain is strong because of his recent big wins, but the state may be more inclined to follow Huckabee. I see Huckabee and McCain battling it out for the win in this state, with Romney taking third. For now, I give the state to Huckabee.
Montana (caucus)- 25 delegates WTA: Huckabee v Romney v Paul v McCain
This has not been a widely disputed state. The voters tend to be both strongly conservative and independent. Huckabee and Romney should do well in this state. Huckabee may win.
New Jersey (primary)- 52 delegates WTA: McCain v Romney
With Rudy out, McCain will win this state. Winner take's all, so Romney should spend his money elsewhere.
New York (primary)- 101 delegates WTA: McCain v Romney
The state that Rudy could not win, yet it was his home turf. Another WTA state, Romney is going to finish at least 15% back. Again, that is money better spent elsewhere.
North Dakota (caucus)- 26 delegates WTA: Huckabee v Romney v McCain
As another WTA state, Romney and McCain should seek delegates elsewhere. This is Huckabee country.
Oklahoma (primary)- 41 delegates: Huckabee v McCain
These delegates will be split between Huckabee and McCain. I predict a Huckabee win, as he has held up well against McCain despite the momentum of the Mac. Huckabee wins Oklahoma.
Tennessee (primary)- 55 delegates: McCain v Huckabee
Since Fred left this state wide open, Huckabee and McCain have both polled very well amongst voters. McCain will likely win, but not by much. I call this state a virtual tie between the top two contenders.
Utah (primary)- 36 delegates WTA: Romney (solid)
If there was any doubt here, the doubter was in trouble. Romney will take all the Utah delegates.
West Virginia (convention)- 30 delegates WTA: Huckabee v McCain
McCain will likely win this state, as it liked Rudy early on. Huckabee will do well, though he won't likely spend any money here... Romeny will finish third. Unfortunately for Huckabee and Romney, this is a winner take's all state.
My Super Tuesday state count is as follows:
Huckabee: +7 states: AL, AR, GA, MO, MT, ND, OK
McCain: +11 states: AK, AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MN, NJ, NY, TN, WV
Romney: +3 states: CO, MA, UT
Paul: +0 states:
There are surely some close races, but this is definately a three contender race! After Super Tuesday, Virginia and Maryland vote on Feb 12th. Both states look good for McCain. A week later Washington and Wisconsin will vote, which will go to McCain and Huckabee respectively (if ST goes the way I predicted). Then comes March 4th, with Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island. Huckabee and McCain are battling it out for Texas. Huckabee has led Texas for some time, and will likely win if all goes as above. This is a huge state for Huckabee. Vermont and RI are are McCain wins, hands down.
The way that I see it, where Romney and McCain face off, Romney is not doing so well. Romney has a solid base in his home states, but I cannot see him making up in the polls in all of those states. There are many where he is not even close.
The Convention could still be brokered, even though McCain will go in ahead. Should Romney drop after a poor Super Tuesday showing, it will be McCain and Huckabee, and the ticket will likely be set-up in that order. Should Romney upset McCain in a shocking reversal of fortune on Super Tuesday, The convention will be very close, but brokered nonetheless. Should McCain go in ahead, I do not see him picking Romney as a running mate. The only hope for Romney is a full out win.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Another look at GOP Super Tuesday
After SC, I see little changing... McCain still has the Momentum... Huckabee is still looking for a break-out in the south... and Romney continues to pick up delegates in uncontested states.
What I do see changing is a shake-up in the Thompson camp. Will he withdraw, or not?
For the time being, I want to re-post my Super Tuesday list, but in a way that is easier to read, and modify in the aftermath of Florida, and a potential Thompson withdrawal:
Alabama...................(primary)......48 delegates...............Huckabee (solid)
Alaska ......................(caucus) .......29 delegates................McCain (leaning)
Arizona ....................(straw poll) ..53 delegates WTA....McCain (solid)
Arkansas .................(primary) .....34 delegates................Huckabee(solid)
California .................(primary) ...173 delegates................McCain (leaning)
Colorado ..................(caucus) .......46 delegates................McCain/Romney/Huckabee (tie)
Connecticut .............(primary) ....30 delegates WTA.....McCain (leaning)
Delaware .................(primary) .....18 delegates WTA.....Rudy (leaning)
Georgia ....................(primary) .....72 delegates................Huckabee (solid)
Illinois ......................(straw poll) ..70 delegates................Huckabee (leaning)
Massachusetts ........(primary) ....43 delegates.................Romney (leaning)
Minnesota.................(caucus) .......41 delegates................McCain (leaning)
Missouri ...................(primary) ...58 delegates WTA.....Huckabee (leaning)
Montana ...................(caucus) ......25 delegates WTA.....Huckabee (leaning)
New Jersey ..............(primary) ...52 delegates WTA......Rudy (leaning)
New York .................(primary)..101 delegates WTA......Rudy (leaning)
North Dakota ...........(caucus) .....26 delegates WTA......Huckabee (solid)
Oklahoma .................(primary)....41 delegates.................Huckabee (leaning)
Tennessee ................(primary) ...55 delegates.................Thompson (solid)
Utah ..........................(primary) ...36 delegates WTA......Romney (solid)
West Virginia .......(convention)...30 delegates WTA......Huckabee (leaning)
This is clearly going to be a delegates race to the finish! Most states are currently leaning slightly in one direction or another, which usually means less than 5% difference, and is therefore up for grabs. States that are solid are consistently polling overwhelmingly for that specific candidate.
The key for delegates, for the non WTA states,is who is finishing in 2nd and by how much!?! If someone can consistently finish 2nd, regardless of who is first, they may be able to pick up a large number of delegates.
There are over a thousand delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday! I will update this list as events change...
What I do see changing is a shake-up in the Thompson camp. Will he withdraw, or not?
For the time being, I want to re-post my Super Tuesday list, but in a way that is easier to read, and modify in the aftermath of Florida, and a potential Thompson withdrawal:
Alabama...................(primary)......48 delegates...............Huckabee (solid)
Alaska ......................(caucus) .......29 delegates................McCain (leaning)
Arizona ....................(straw poll) ..53 delegates WTA....McCain (solid)
Arkansas .................(primary) .....34 delegates................Huckabee(solid)
California .................(primary) ...173 delegates................McCain (leaning)
Colorado ..................(caucus) .......46 delegates................McCain/Romney/Huckabee (tie)
Connecticut .............(primary) ....30 delegates WTA.....McCain (leaning)
Delaware .................(primary) .....18 delegates WTA.....Rudy (leaning)
Georgia ....................(primary) .....72 delegates................Huckabee (solid)
Illinois ......................(straw poll) ..70 delegates................Huckabee (leaning)
Massachusetts ........(primary) ....43 delegates.................Romney (leaning)
Minnesota.................(caucus) .......41 delegates................McCain (leaning)
Missouri ...................(primary) ...58 delegates WTA.....Huckabee (leaning)
Montana ...................(caucus) ......25 delegates WTA.....Huckabee (leaning)
New Jersey ..............(primary) ...52 delegates WTA......Rudy (leaning)
New York .................(primary)..101 delegates WTA......Rudy (leaning)
North Dakota ...........(caucus) .....26 delegates WTA......Huckabee (solid)
Oklahoma .................(primary)....41 delegates.................Huckabee (leaning)
Tennessee ................(primary) ...55 delegates.................Thompson (solid)
Utah ..........................(primary) ...36 delegates WTA......Romney (solid)
West Virginia .......(convention)...30 delegates WTA......Huckabee (leaning)
This is clearly going to be a delegates race to the finish! Most states are currently leaning slightly in one direction or another, which usually means less than 5% difference, and is therefore up for grabs. States that are solid are consistently polling overwhelmingly for that specific candidate.
The key for delegates, for the non WTA states,is who is finishing in 2nd and by how much!?! If someone can consistently finish 2nd, regardless of who is first, they may be able to pick up a large number of delegates.
There are over a thousand delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday! I will update this list as events change...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
How Will SC Vote Today?
And another contest begins in the presidential race of 2008 today. South Carolina's voting polls are open and only time will tell what the results are.
Some interesting happenings over the last days since Michigan... Mitt Romney is in search of delegates, hoping that delegate count in the "jump to the front" states will mean more than the traditional "first in the nation" states. He had abandoned his campaign in SC, claiming that 4th would be a victory, and instead opted to aim for Nevada, a Mormon stronghold, and a state also offering about ten more delegates. He took a similar approach in Wyoming, a Mormon state, where he was the only candidate who honestly campaigned in the state. He and Duncan Hunter were big winners in Wyoming... so that says something, I suppose.
But what about South Carolina? The state in which no GOP candidate of recent years has lost, but gone on to receive the GOP nomination. A state with strong ties to faith, independence, civil rights issues, and agrarian history. It is a state which encompasses the values of Iowa and New Hampshire... And it is truly a state which must be won by many in the GOP field today if they wish to continue the race for the GOP nomination.
Time for my predictions:
Romney has made it clear that he plans to hold out for delegates. As I see this being a brokered convention, this is a smart move. He may be in the lead with delegates now, but he will find himself in the middle of the pack after Super Tuesday. Recent polling has shown that he is not doing well in a majority of the Super Tuesday states.
McCain will lick his wounds and live to fight another day... namely in Florida, where he and Rudy seem to be leading the polls... surely, though, a loss in SC will make Florida a hard win. And his recent surge in the national polls will likely be busted in favor of the SC winner.
Mike Huckabee, if he does get the win as I am predicting, will see another surge of support, similar to his Huckaboom of December, and his resurgence after Iowa (though short lived because of NH). Mike Huckabee is a contender in Florida, and has many states locked up in the Super Tuesday contest. He may come out 2nd or possibly 1st after super tuesday (in delegates) with a commanding win in SC. A second place finish will likely ensure a VP consideration, especially if it kills any chance of gaining momentum before Super Tuesday.
Thompson is plagued with 4th place finishes across the board so far, and one tie for third in Iowa. If South Carolina doesn't pan out for Thompson, he will have some serious soul searching to do. The best Thompson may hope for is a McCain victory, and a VP nod from his good friend... However, a surprise win or 2nd place finish tonight could give this summer's "Mr. Inevitable" a breath of life, and potentially a surge of support and delegates heading into Super Tuesday.
Rudy is still holding out for Florida, but as I have said before, with no momentum, no headlines, and waning support. This may be the biggest blunder in presidential campaigning since the Howard Dean scream... YYYEEEEAAAAHHHH!
All eyes are on SC. And for those looking ahead to Super Tuesday, what can we expect to see?
If my prediction of SC is correct, I expect the following:
*WTA = Winner Takes All delegates (by districts or entire state)
Alabama (primary - WTA districts - 48): Huckabee
Alaska (caucus - 29): Huckabee
Arizona (straw poll - WTA state - 53): McCain
Arkansas (primary - WTA district - 34): Huckabee
California (primary - WTA district - 173): Rudy (if he wins Florida)
Colorado (caucus - 46): Huckabee
Connecticut (primary - WTA state - 30): Rudy
Delaware (primary - WTA state - 18): Rudy
Georgia (primary - WTA district - 72): Huckabee
Illinois (straw poll - 70): Huckabee
Massachusetts (primary - 43): Romney
Minnesota (caucus - 41): Huckabee
Missouri (primary - WTA state - 58): Rudy
Montana (caucus - WTA state - 25): Huckabee
New Jersey (primary - WTA state - 52): Rudy
New York (primary - WTA state - 101): Rudy
North Dakota (caucus - WTA state - 26): Huckabee
Oklahoma (primary - WTA district - 41): Huckabee
Tennessee (primary - 55): Thompson
Utah (primary - WTA state - 36): Romney
West Virginia (convention - WTA - 30): Huckabee
Delegate count is nearly impossible, because some states are WTA by district, or proportional... But, let's look at total number of states won:
Rudy: 6 of 21
Huckabee: 11 of 21
McCain: 1 of 21
Romney: 2 of 21
Thompson: 1 of 21
Let's see how SC plays out, and I will be glad to modify these numbers. My predictions come from latest polls in those states, or state voting trends (by issues) where polls where not available, as well as predicted bumps by the predicted SC and Florida finishes.
Some interesting happenings over the last days since Michigan... Mitt Romney is in search of delegates, hoping that delegate count in the "jump to the front" states will mean more than the traditional "first in the nation" states. He had abandoned his campaign in SC, claiming that 4th would be a victory, and instead opted to aim for Nevada, a Mormon stronghold, and a state also offering about ten more delegates. He took a similar approach in Wyoming, a Mormon state, where he was the only candidate who honestly campaigned in the state. He and Duncan Hunter were big winners in Wyoming... so that says something, I suppose.
But what about South Carolina? The state in which no GOP candidate of recent years has lost, but gone on to receive the GOP nomination. A state with strong ties to faith, independence, civil rights issues, and agrarian history. It is a state which encompasses the values of Iowa and New Hampshire... And it is truly a state which must be won by many in the GOP field today if they wish to continue the race for the GOP nomination.
Time for my predictions:
What does this mean?Huckabee........30%
McCain.............26%
Thompson.......19%
Romney.............14%
Rudy.....................6%
Paul......................5%
Romney has made it clear that he plans to hold out for delegates. As I see this being a brokered convention, this is a smart move. He may be in the lead with delegates now, but he will find himself in the middle of the pack after Super Tuesday. Recent polling has shown that he is not doing well in a majority of the Super Tuesday states.
McCain will lick his wounds and live to fight another day... namely in Florida, where he and Rudy seem to be leading the polls... surely, though, a loss in SC will make Florida a hard win. And his recent surge in the national polls will likely be busted in favor of the SC winner.
Mike Huckabee, if he does get the win as I am predicting, will see another surge of support, similar to his Huckaboom of December, and his resurgence after Iowa (though short lived because of NH). Mike Huckabee is a contender in Florida, and has many states locked up in the Super Tuesday contest. He may come out 2nd or possibly 1st after super tuesday (in delegates) with a commanding win in SC. A second place finish will likely ensure a VP consideration, especially if it kills any chance of gaining momentum before Super Tuesday.
Thompson is plagued with 4th place finishes across the board so far, and one tie for third in Iowa. If South Carolina doesn't pan out for Thompson, he will have some serious soul searching to do. The best Thompson may hope for is a McCain victory, and a VP nod from his good friend... However, a surprise win or 2nd place finish tonight could give this summer's "Mr. Inevitable" a breath of life, and potentially a surge of support and delegates heading into Super Tuesday.
Rudy is still holding out for Florida, but as I have said before, with no momentum, no headlines, and waning support. This may be the biggest blunder in presidential campaigning since the Howard Dean scream... YYYEEEEAAAAHHHH!
All eyes are on SC. And for those looking ahead to Super Tuesday, what can we expect to see?
If my prediction of SC is correct, I expect the following:
*WTA = Winner Takes All delegates (by districts or entire state)
Alabama (primary - WTA districts - 48): Huckabee
Alaska (caucus - 29): Huckabee
Arizona (straw poll - WTA state - 53): McCain
Arkansas (primary - WTA district - 34): Huckabee
California (primary - WTA district - 173): Rudy (if he wins Florida)
Colorado (caucus - 46): Huckabee
Connecticut (primary - WTA state - 30): Rudy
Delaware (primary - WTA state - 18): Rudy
Georgia (primary - WTA district - 72): Huckabee
Illinois (straw poll - 70): Huckabee
Massachusetts (primary - 43): Romney
Minnesota (caucus - 41): Huckabee
Missouri (primary - WTA state - 58): Rudy
Montana (caucus - WTA state - 25): Huckabee
New Jersey (primary - WTA state - 52): Rudy
New York (primary - WTA state - 101): Rudy
North Dakota (caucus - WTA state - 26): Huckabee
Oklahoma (primary - WTA district - 41): Huckabee
Tennessee (primary - 55): Thompson
Utah (primary - WTA state - 36): Romney
West Virginia (convention - WTA - 30): Huckabee
Delegate count is nearly impossible, because some states are WTA by district, or proportional... But, let's look at total number of states won:
Rudy: 6 of 21
Huckabee: 11 of 21
McCain: 1 of 21
Romney: 2 of 21
Thompson: 1 of 21
Let's see how SC plays out, and I will be glad to modify these numbers. My predictions come from latest polls in those states, or state voting trends (by issues) where polls where not available, as well as predicted bumps by the predicted SC and Florida finishes.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Republican Race Open, but not THAT Open
This blog is in response to a comment on my previous post, by Ben Degrow over at Mt Virtus. His comment reads:
Regarding Romney's landslide... we must consider the fact that Michigan is an open priamry state, and the Democrats had nothing to vote for on their ticket... so:
Let's discuss how open the race is, and what SC means to which candidates.
Ben, who is a Fred Thompson guy, seems to be holding out for Thompson in SC. And Fred Thompson, who seems to sometimes be a Fred Thompson guy, is also holding out for something big in SC. I just don't see that happening. Fred is in SC, trying to make his stand, but doing so with absolutely no momentum from the first three contests. In the state, Fred Thompson support has gone from over 20% to just under 10% in the last three months... and nothing has happened to suggest a boomlet in Thompson's favor. I still stand by my word that this may be Thompson's last stand. Anything less than a 2nd place finish for Thompson in SC kills any chance for a momentum boomlet. (My Iowa prediction of Thomspon's withdrawal was hampered by a close third place battle between he and McCain, which almost forced him to stay in and take a stand in SC... but it did not help his numbers... they continue to fall)
So to answer the question of "is SC really a McCain, Romney, Thompson showdown?"... the answer is no... the race is open, but not that open! And Huckabee is still alive and well in the Palmetto State. Romney's win yesterday likely stifled McCain's boom, but I don't think it hurt Huckabee... What is hurting Huckabee is the McCain boom... so Romney's wion can only help Huckabee in SC. Based on the intensity of McCain's surge post NH, which was unforeseen at the time I made the two man race prediction, SC is very much a three way race. But Thompson is not in the top three. It will be a Huckabee, McCain, Romney battle in SC. Thompson, unless he can muster up some momentum in the next week, will likely be finished... I know I predicted a withdrawal after Iowa, but maybe the old man stays in to be part of the delegate race. The 4th place finish will be an embarrassment to the Thompson campaign. Remember, Thompson was elevated to savior status before getting into the race. He has, arguably, yet to finish above 4th (or 200 votes from finishing 4th in Iowa)
Regarding the Intratrade... I visited the intratrade site, and there was not an option to buy Huckabee stock in the state. He is not listed. Never was. So I am not using that as a measuring device.
The race is open... indeed! It could not be looking better for Rudy in Florida, though I think his decision to sit out the early contests likely makes him a non-contender in Super Tuesday states now... perhaps Florida could turn that around.
But what do I see in my crystal ball?
For starters, I will tell you what I did NOT see. I did NOT see McCain having such an effective surge... especially in the wake of the Illegal Immigration Shamnesty plan that he tried to ram down our throats. Maybe Tancredo's withdrawal from the race took some of that pressure off McCain, and the issue out of the limelight.
I did NOT see Rudy falling off as much as he has! Rudy is currently polling nationally at 13%, tied with Romney for a distant 3rd. By the time we get to Florida, Rudy will likely be battling Fred in national polls for 4th, somewhere around 10%. That is not a good place to be heading into Super Duper Tuesday.
And I did NOT see Ron Paul beating out Thompson in a state like Michigan. That doesn't do much for Ron Paul at this point, but it doesn't say much for Thompson's support in the state of Michigan.
At this point, we need to take a compass reading. Nevada will likely not give us that reading. Nevada is so wide open, and clearly blowing in the direction of the momentum, that it will likely be a race between the top four: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee, Romney.
If McCain takes SC, McCain will likely win out. If Huckabee takes SC, it will likely move the battle to a two man race on super tuesday. If Romney takes SC, Huckabee's run is likely over, and McCain will likely win out on Super Tuesday, with Romney and Huckabee finishing in a series of 2nds and 3rds... obviously some 1st's in their stronghold states. I don't see Rudy's plan paying off, and I don't see Fred Thompson as a major player anymore.
I am still predicting a brokered convention...
One thing that I know is that the water is very muddy leading up to Super Tuesday!
God Bless!
Let me first begin by congratulating Mitt Romney on his win in Michigan. Michigan was always a pro Romney state, but the big surprise was the McCain surge, making Huckabee a non-player in the state. Ben is right on, and I agree that this race is still open... and it will continue to defy the pundits and predictions... However, without predictions, what fun is it in tracking the race so closely?Respectfully...You wrote in an earlier post: "Should Mitt Romney take the top spot in Michigan, he and Huckabee will battle it out in SC, where it will likely be Huckabee's last stand." Given this previous statement and the fact that Huckabee SC shares are not selling at all on Intrades, do you see anything in tonight's modest 3rd-place MI performance (you predicted he would win here, so this has got to be a big disappointment) to turn around his plummeting SC numbers? Do you see SC as a 3-way race between McCain, Romney, & Thompson (whom you earlier predicted would dropout after the Iowa caucuses)? Do you still think Thompson will have an"embarrassing finish" in SC and withdraw? After this unexpected turn of events (Huckabee in IA, McCain in NH, now Romney in MI), how big of an opening do you see for Rudy's strategy to pay off? Do you agree that this race will continue to defy the pundits & the predictions? (http://bendegrow.com/2008/romney-wins-now-what/)
Regarding Romney's landslide... we must consider the fact that Michigan is an open priamry state, and the Democrats had nothing to vote for on their ticket... so:
Michigan's open primary means Republicans, Democrats, and independents can all
vote in it. Since there's no contested primary on the Dem side, their
participation in the GOP contest could be a wild card. Daily Kos steward
Markos Moulitsas, hoping desperately to be mistaken for a Machiavellian genius,
is encouraging his minions to vote for Romney for mischief's sake, under the
assumption that if he doesn't win today, he drops out. Kos reasons his
side prefers Romney staying in the race so that the well-funded bloodsport of
primary battling will continue among Republicans, presumably injuring the
eventual nominee.
Let's discuss how open the race is, and what SC means to which candidates.
Ben, who is a Fred Thompson guy, seems to be holding out for Thompson in SC. And Fred Thompson, who seems to sometimes be a Fred Thompson guy, is also holding out for something big in SC. I just don't see that happening. Fred is in SC, trying to make his stand, but doing so with absolutely no momentum from the first three contests. In the state, Fred Thompson support has gone from over 20% to just under 10% in the last three months... and nothing has happened to suggest a boomlet in Thompson's favor. I still stand by my word that this may be Thompson's last stand. Anything less than a 2nd place finish for Thompson in SC kills any chance for a momentum boomlet. (My Iowa prediction of Thomspon's withdrawal was hampered by a close third place battle between he and McCain, which almost forced him to stay in and take a stand in SC... but it did not help his numbers... they continue to fall)
So to answer the question of "is SC really a McCain, Romney, Thompson showdown?"... the answer is no... the race is open, but not that open! And Huckabee is still alive and well in the Palmetto State. Romney's win yesterday likely stifled McCain's boom, but I don't think it hurt Huckabee... What is hurting Huckabee is the McCain boom... so Romney's wion can only help Huckabee in SC. Based on the intensity of McCain's surge post NH, which was unforeseen at the time I made the two man race prediction, SC is very much a three way race. But Thompson is not in the top three. It will be a Huckabee, McCain, Romney battle in SC. Thompson, unless he can muster up some momentum in the next week, will likely be finished... I know I predicted a withdrawal after Iowa, but maybe the old man stays in to be part of the delegate race. The 4th place finish will be an embarrassment to the Thompson campaign. Remember, Thompson was elevated to savior status before getting into the race. He has, arguably, yet to finish above 4th (or 200 votes from finishing 4th in Iowa)
Regarding the Intratrade... I visited the intratrade site, and there was not an option to buy Huckabee stock in the state. He is not listed. Never was. So I am not using that as a measuring device.
The race is open... indeed! It could not be looking better for Rudy in Florida, though I think his decision to sit out the early contests likely makes him a non-contender in Super Tuesday states now... perhaps Florida could turn that around.
But what do I see in my crystal ball?For starters, I will tell you what I did NOT see. I did NOT see McCain having such an effective surge... especially in the wake of the Illegal Immigration Shamnesty plan that he tried to ram down our throats. Maybe Tancredo's withdrawal from the race took some of that pressure off McCain, and the issue out of the limelight.
I did NOT see Rudy falling off as much as he has! Rudy is currently polling nationally at 13%, tied with Romney for a distant 3rd. By the time we get to Florida, Rudy will likely be battling Fred in national polls for 4th, somewhere around 10%. That is not a good place to be heading into Super Duper Tuesday.
And I did NOT see Ron Paul beating out Thompson in a state like Michigan. That doesn't do much for Ron Paul at this point, but it doesn't say much for Thompson's support in the state of Michigan.
At this point, we need to take a compass reading. Nevada will likely not give us that reading. Nevada is so wide open, and clearly blowing in the direction of the momentum, that it will likely be a race between the top four: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee, Romney.
If McCain takes SC, McCain will likely win out. If Huckabee takes SC, it will likely move the battle to a two man race on super tuesday. If Romney takes SC, Huckabee's run is likely over, and McCain will likely win out on Super Tuesday, with Romney and Huckabee finishing in a series of 2nds and 3rds... obviously some 1st's in their stronghold states. I don't see Rudy's plan paying off, and I don't see Fred Thompson as a major player anymore.
I am still predicting a brokered convention...
One thing that I know is that the water is very muddy leading up to Super Tuesday!
God Bless!
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Round One: Iowa Caucus, Thompson to Drop Bid, Huckabee Expected to Win Big
The day has finally arrived... January 3rd, 2008. The Iowa Caucus. Perhaps the biggest day in the 2008 Presidential elections since the Straw Poll in Ames 5 long months ago.
Those of us who have been living and breathing this stuff since before then are more than ecstatic! Oh... if only I could take a peak at the headlines of tomorrow! The anticipation is killing me more in this one day than in all days prior!
What is more, even Mitt Romney, the multi-million dollar man, has predicted that he will lose to Huckabee tonight. One thing that we can all agree on is that it has been a tough race, but the political oddity of our time is that a dirt-road candidate with no money or organization has seemingly unseated the established and well funded candidate. If things play out this way tonight, it will be, perhaps, one of the greatest political feats of our time!
But the trouble continues after the Iowa Caucus. Fred Thompson's campaign has made it clear that if Thompson does not finish in the top 2 or 3, Fred Thompson will drop the race. Talk about taking the first exit off the expressway! This guy never really wanted to run in the first place, so this is an easy out. I commend him on inspiring his base! And even though Thompson is said to endorse John McCain when he drops the race, I doubt that all of those votes will actually go to McCain. In fact, 2nd choice for a lot of Fred Thompson voters are spread between Huckabee, McCain, and Romney... so it will be interesting to see how those votes are distributed in NH. What is more interesting is how an announcement like this will influence voters in Iowa on the day of the caucus. Perhaps the Iowa Fred-Heads will throw their 1st choice vote to Huckabee or McCain in Iowa. This definitely shakes things up a bit on Caucus Day!
Depending on how this day turns out, all eyes will be on John McCain, and the endorsement he will receive from Fred Thompson. Will this push him to imminent victory in New Hampshire, despite the Independent vote, or does Thompson's poor support in that state even matter come the Primary? And will this move hurt or help Huckabee and Rudy?
It seems to me that Rudy's hold out for Super Tuesday was a poor tactic. He will have zero momentum going into Feb 5th. If Huckabee wins tonight, and McCain wins NH, Huckabee is sure to take Michigan from Romney, clean up in SC, and use the momentum to defeat Rudy in SC before Super Tuesday. McCain's numbers are close enough in Michigan and SC to give Huckabee a run for his money... but tonight will give momentum to next Tuesday... and after Next Tuesday, it could be a Huckabee / McCain race to the nomination (in either order).
On the Democratic side, If Edwards pulls the upset tonight, he could possibly use this momentum to sweep the states before Super Tuesday. If Clinton doesn't have the momentum on Super Tuesday, Edwards could win out the day. People are looking for a reason not to support Hillary, and just like Rudy's numbers fell with the first sign of hope in another candidate, so too will Clinton.
So the three candidates to watch tonight are Huckabee, McCain, and John Edwards.
Those of us who have been living and breathing this stuff since before then are more than ecstatic! Oh... if only I could take a peak at the headlines of tomorrow! The anticipation is killing me more in this one day than in all days prior!
What is more, even Mitt Romney, the multi-million dollar man, has predicted that he will lose to Huckabee tonight. One thing that we can all agree on is that it has been a tough race, but the political oddity of our time is that a dirt-road candidate with no money or organization has seemingly unseated the established and well funded candidate. If things play out this way tonight, it will be, perhaps, one of the greatest political feats of our time!
But the trouble continues after the Iowa Caucus. Fred Thompson's campaign has made it clear that if Thompson does not finish in the top 2 or 3, Fred Thompson will drop the race. Talk about taking the first exit off the expressway! This guy never really wanted to run in the first place, so this is an easy out. I commend him on inspiring his base! And even though Thompson is said to endorse John McCain when he drops the race, I doubt that all of those votes will actually go to McCain. In fact, 2nd choice for a lot of Fred Thompson voters are spread between Huckabee, McCain, and Romney... so it will be interesting to see how those votes are distributed in NH. What is more interesting is how an announcement like this will influence voters in Iowa on the day of the caucus. Perhaps the Iowa Fred-Heads will throw their 1st choice vote to Huckabee or McCain in Iowa. This definitely shakes things up a bit on Caucus Day!
Depending on how this day turns out, all eyes will be on John McCain, and the endorsement he will receive from Fred Thompson. Will this push him to imminent victory in New Hampshire, despite the Independent vote, or does Thompson's poor support in that state even matter come the Primary? And will this move hurt or help Huckabee and Rudy?
It seems to me that Rudy's hold out for Super Tuesday was a poor tactic. He will have zero momentum going into Feb 5th. If Huckabee wins tonight, and McCain wins NH, Huckabee is sure to take Michigan from Romney, clean up in SC, and use the momentum to defeat Rudy in SC before Super Tuesday. McCain's numbers are close enough in Michigan and SC to give Huckabee a run for his money... but tonight will give momentum to next Tuesday... and after Next Tuesday, it could be a Huckabee / McCain race to the nomination (in either order).
On the Democratic side, If Edwards pulls the upset tonight, he could possibly use this momentum to sweep the states before Super Tuesday. If Clinton doesn't have the momentum on Super Tuesday, Edwards could win out the day. People are looking for a reason not to support Hillary, and just like Rudy's numbers fell with the first sign of hope in another candidate, so too will Clinton.
So the three candidates to watch tonight are Huckabee, McCain, and John Edwards.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Comments Make the Blogging World Go 'Round
Back from vacation, and blogging again! I hope that everyone is well rested from New Years, and ready for the election season to begin!
Surprisingly, I have had no comments on my previous post, relating to how you all think the election cycle will go!?!?
Are there really no opinions out there?
Perhaps a comment from a Ron Pauler who knows something about a potential for Paulers to flood the Iowa Caucuses, giving Paul a surprising top three finish.
Perhaps Fred Thompson bows out after a poor showing in Iowa?
Who hangs on until Super Tuesday, and how do you all see that super election going?
I would love to hear some analysis, or just plain guesses, as to how you all think this month will play out!
Don't be shy! Comments make the blogging world go 'round!
Surprisingly, I have had no comments on my previous post, relating to how you all think the election cycle will go!?!?
Are there really no opinions out there?
Perhaps a comment from a Ron Pauler who knows something about a potential for Paulers to flood the Iowa Caucuses, giving Paul a surprising top three finish.
Perhaps Fred Thompson bows out after a poor showing in Iowa?
Who hangs on until Super Tuesday, and how do you all see that super election going?
I would love to hear some analysis, or just plain guesses, as to how you all think this month will play out!
Don't be shy! Comments make the blogging world go 'round!
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