Lt. Col. Alan West in Florida - a candidate for US Congress in Florida's 22nd Congressional District - better known as West Palm Beach.
Though I cannot endorse this candidate fully at this time, mainly due to my not knowing enough about his 10th Amendment stance nor his 'world police' stance, I do applaud his libertarian conservative rhetoric... Let's hope, of course, that it is more than rhetoric, and that THIS is a rising star in the Core Value Republican farm team...
He sure gives one hell of a speech! And fancy that - No teleprompter!
Showing posts with label Florida. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Florida. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Swing States: Swinging for McCain/Palin!
Rasmussen/Fox polls in key swing states shows the change in momentum between the two presidential campaigns. The poll indicated that McCain closed the gap on 3 point Obama Lead, to come out ahead by 2% - a 5 point swing toward the McCain campaign in the state of Colorado.
Real Clear Politics also shows that the PPP (D) poll, favoring Obama by 4 points now favors Obama by only 1 point in Colorado - well within the margin of error of that poll.
Obama's campaign is losing steam in many key swing states - most notably Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes. If McCain can swing Pennsylvania, Obama will be unable to catch him in the electoral count. Taking a look at the breakdown in Pennsylvania, Obama is holding the core Democrat vote, but losing with unaffiliated voters by 23 points (55% - 32%). What is most notable in this state is that McCain is making his gains while Obama is holding steady, indicating (as noted above) that unaffiliated voters are swinging for John McCain and Sarah Palin in the Keystone State.
Another key state in this race, Florida, has moved from the "toss up" category, to the "Leaning McCain" category, indicating a favor for McCain of more than 5% on the average - a great number for McCain!
A look at other swing states shows a trend that should have the Obama campaign moving into crisis mode.
Minnesota (10) - Obama's 12 point lead dwindles to a tie in the latest polls - Obama lead by 1% on average.
New Mexico (5) - CNN poll indicated Obama's lead post Palin was 13%, now Rasmussen indicates a McCain 2% lead in the state. Unable to determine the average in that state.
Michigan (17) - An Obama 5 point spread has been cut to a 2 point spread for Obama - indicating a McCain surge in that state.
Missouri (11) - The "Show Me" State is showing a liking for McCain/Palin, moving from the toss-up category into McCain's category, indicating 11 electoral votes for the Big Mac and the Cuda.
Washington (11) - Though Obama is still leading this state, McCain is showing a surge in the Evergreen state, while Obama is showing slipping poll numbers. Is Washington going to end up in play in 2008?
The fact of the matter is that, even with the media squarely supporting Obama - and making no secret of it - the Obama campaign is in disarray. The LA Times' Jonah Goldberg suggests that Obama's inexperience is beginning to show, indicating that Obama has never run a successful campaign against a Republican opponent. He also reports that the Obama camp has vowed 4 other times to face off and fight dirty against McCain, but come up short and with the same message that is not working: McCain is too close to Bush - making him McSame. This message is a good talking point for Democrat Core voters, but it is not catching on with Independent and unaffiliated voters. Why?
Lieberman's endorsement indicates that McCain is appealing to independent voters, and continually stumps that McCain stood up against Bush on issues, like the surge.
The Palin pick indicates that McCain is ready to embark on a reform conquest in Washington, picking the most popular Governor in the US, who is a known outsider and reformer. The attacks on Palin by the media and the left (I repeat myself) have backfired, showing significant support for the Alaskan Governor - indicating that the media is not only in Obama's camp, but out of touch with the voters.
If the 2008 Republican Primary taught us anything, it is that McCain is a strong finisher, bringing out the big guns when it matters. He has done that with the Palin pick, and he is doing that with the direct push towards Obama's inexperience.
If the McCain Palin bump is over, like the MSM reported yesterday, it is definitely not a burst bubble, but a new plateau. The Obama campaign, however, continues to plummet in national and state polls. With 49 days left to go, anything can happen - but the outlook is not so good for Obama.
Real Clear Politics also shows that the PPP (D) poll, favoring Obama by 4 points now favors Obama by only 1 point in Colorado - well within the margin of error of that poll.
Obama's campaign is losing steam in many key swing states - most notably Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes. If McCain can swing Pennsylvania, Obama will be unable to catch him in the electoral count. Taking a look at the breakdown in Pennsylvania, Obama is holding the core Democrat vote, but losing with unaffiliated voters by 23 points (55% - 32%). What is most notable in this state is that McCain is making his gains while Obama is holding steady, indicating (as noted above) that unaffiliated voters are swinging for John McCain and Sarah Palin in the Keystone State.Another key state in this race, Florida, has moved from the "toss up" category, to the "Leaning McCain" category, indicating a favor for McCain of more than 5% on the average - a great number for McCain!
A look at other swing states shows a trend that should have the Obama campaign moving into crisis mode.
Minnesota (10) - Obama's 12 point lead dwindles to a tie in the latest polls - Obama lead by 1% on average.
New Mexico (5) - CNN poll indicated Obama's lead post Palin was 13%, now Rasmussen indicates a McCain 2% lead in the state. Unable to determine the average in that state.
Michigan (17) - An Obama 5 point spread has been cut to a 2 point spread for Obama - indicating a McCain surge in that state.
Missouri (11) - The "Show Me" State is showing a liking for McCain/Palin, moving from the toss-up category into McCain's category, indicating 11 electoral votes for the Big Mac and the Cuda.
Washington (11) - Though Obama is still leading this state, McCain is showing a surge in the Evergreen state, while Obama is showing slipping poll numbers. Is Washington going to end up in play in 2008?
The fact of the matter is that, even with the media squarely supporting Obama - and making no secret of it - the Obama campaign is in disarray. The LA Times' Jonah Goldberg suggests that Obama's inexperience is beginning to show, indicating that Obama has never run a successful campaign against a Republican opponent. He also reports that the Obama camp has vowed 4 other times to face off and fight dirty against McCain, but come up short and with the same message that is not working: McCain is too close to Bush - making him McSame. This message is a good talking point for Democrat Core voters, but it is not catching on with Independent and unaffiliated voters. Why?
Lieberman's endorsement indicates that McCain is appealing to independent voters, and continually stumps that McCain stood up against Bush on issues, like the surge.
The Palin pick indicates that McCain is ready to embark on a reform conquest in Washington, picking the most popular Governor in the US, who is a known outsider and reformer. The attacks on Palin by the media and the left (I repeat myself) have backfired, showing significant support for the Alaskan Governor - indicating that the media is not only in Obama's camp, but out of touch with the voters.
If the 2008 Republican Primary taught us anything, it is that McCain is a strong finisher, bringing out the big guns when it matters. He has done that with the Palin pick, and he is doing that with the direct push towards Obama's inexperience.
If the McCain Palin bump is over, like the MSM reported yesterday, it is definitely not a burst bubble, but a new plateau. The Obama campaign, however, continues to plummet in national and state polls. With 49 days left to go, anything can happen - but the outlook is not so good for Obama.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
President Bush lets Cat out of the Bag about 2000?
Reports are starting to circulate that could put the entire political world on it's head.A secretly recorded conversation between President George W. Bush and an as yet unidentified voice seems to imply that George Bush's campaign had knowledge of "a fix" in the 2000 elections.
Having listened to the audio on a Reuters feed, Bush's voice is very clear, and some of the claims he makes could possibly land him in the middle of an impeachment hearing.
Bush can clearly be heard whispering "I had no idea they were serious, but when the court ruling was announced I knew they really fixed it"
The release of this audio puts us into the midst of a constitutional crisis. George Bush (apparently) won in 2004 legitimately, so he is the President... but if he had knowledge of a rigged election, then he was not the legitimate leader of the US for the first term.
I am in shock right now trying to imagine what implications this could have, now in 2008.
I need to hear from someone who knows something about Constitutional Law on this one!
All I can say is WOW!
Thursday, January 24, 2008
GOP: So, Who Has the Momentum Again?
It is January 24th, 2008... Five days before the Florida showdown... Twelve days before Super Tuesday. A number of contests have cleared the field of candidates who failed to materialize, leaving behind a race that is as out of the ordinary as a San Francisco Conservative.Huckabee claimed first blood in Iowa, taking the state from the long time favorite there, Mitt Romney. The Huckaboom had paid off, and Huck's momentum was back.
Fast on his tail was John McCain, perhaps in anticipation of his contest in New Hampshire, where Independents were able to rally behind their man as they did 8 years prior. John McCain's win in New Hampshire helped further propel his numbers in the positive direction, giving him the highest level of support since entering the race over a year ago.
Meanwhile, smaller and less contested races were taking place in states like Wyoming, Michigan, and Nevada... Victories out of these states heralded little notice by the press, but the delegates counted just the same as in the traditional early states. Mitt Romney's victories in these widely uncontested states did little to add to his momentum, though there is something to be said for leading the delegate count before Super Tuesday, and that is the headline he was hoping for.
Rudy Guiliani has yet to break 10% in a contest in the early states. His strategy of "Go Big or Go Home", where he is playing in states with only sizable delegate counts, has done little more than employ an army of campaign eulogy writers... but for Rudy, there is always Florida, right?
And all the while, Ron Paul and his supporters, after stacking every online poll in an attempt to appear as a front-runner, has been unable to muster more than 5% nationally in the polls, and has had his best showing in an uncontested Nevada, where he placed a very distant 2nd.
So I ask the question... Who has the momentum again?
The answer is simply: No One!
Fred Thompson's drop from the race, and lack of an expected endorsement, has left a large field of undecided voters hesitant to join any one campaign. The lack of a McCain endorsement has further served to help add gravity to McCain's falling national numbers, as voters remember why his campaign imploded over the summer: Immigration.
Duncan Hunter, yesterday, in an attempt to help swings some momentum in the direction of the Social Conservatives, endorsed Mike Huckabee... unfortunately this endorsement received little fanfare from the media, as they have all but declared the Huckabee campaign a bust. Huckabee is doing little to help his own campaign by not aggressively pursuing Thompson's supporters. Instead his campaign released a short press advisory welcoming support... while at the same time his campaign Chairman Chip Saltzman took a hit at Fred Thompson on the Mike Huckabee Campaign Blog. Huckabee missed an opportunity to claim victory in SC after the contest, by claiming that Fred's withdrawal, had it happened prior to the race, would have made him the clear victor.
Rudy's numbers have flatlined, which for him is a good thing at this point. A flatline is much better than the nose-dive he was seeing. This hesitation in the plummet may be temporary, unless he can pull off a come from behind win in Florida. Rudy's only source of momentum is anticipation of Florida... but all the momentum leads up to is a simple "no change".
Mitt Romney seems unable to break the invisible barrier of 16% in the national polls. His campaign had surged in the past, only to hit 16% and fall... rising again, only to fall again... he is at 15.8%, but the trend is ominous for his campaign!
It is hard to say what will happen in the debate tonight, but easy to see what must be done. There is a new flood of undecided Thompson voters that could cling to a new campaign and propel that campaign to the White House. Every person left on that stage needs to spend tonight aggressively wooing the ex-Fred-heads. The candidate who stands to pick up the votes MUST be conservative socially (this excludes Rudy and potentially McCain), must be strong, and must actually ASK for their support... no subtleties... now is not the time!
With no momentum from any candidate, no clear front-runner, and all candidates within 10% of being the leader on a very fluid scale... We start tonight at square ONE!
Saturday, January 19, 2008
How Will SC Vote Today?
And another contest begins in the presidential race of 2008 today. South Carolina's voting polls are open and only time will tell what the results are.
Some interesting happenings over the last days since Michigan... Mitt Romney is in search of delegates, hoping that delegate count in the "jump to the front" states will mean more than the traditional "first in the nation" states. He had abandoned his campaign in SC, claiming that 4th would be a victory, and instead opted to aim for Nevada, a Mormon stronghold, and a state also offering about ten more delegates. He took a similar approach in Wyoming, a Mormon state, where he was the only candidate who honestly campaigned in the state. He and Duncan Hunter were big winners in Wyoming... so that says something, I suppose.
But what about South Carolina? The state in which no GOP candidate of recent years has lost, but gone on to receive the GOP nomination. A state with strong ties to faith, independence, civil rights issues, and agrarian history. It is a state which encompasses the values of Iowa and New Hampshire... And it is truly a state which must be won by many in the GOP field today if they wish to continue the race for the GOP nomination.
Time for my predictions:
Romney has made it clear that he plans to hold out for delegates. As I see this being a brokered convention, this is a smart move. He may be in the lead with delegates now, but he will find himself in the middle of the pack after Super Tuesday. Recent polling has shown that he is not doing well in a majority of the Super Tuesday states.
McCain will lick his wounds and live to fight another day... namely in Florida, where he and Rudy seem to be leading the polls... surely, though, a loss in SC will make Florida a hard win. And his recent surge in the national polls will likely be busted in favor of the SC winner.
Mike Huckabee, if he does get the win as I am predicting, will see another surge of support, similar to his Huckaboom of December, and his resurgence after Iowa (though short lived because of NH). Mike Huckabee is a contender in Florida, and has many states locked up in the Super Tuesday contest. He may come out 2nd or possibly 1st after super tuesday (in delegates) with a commanding win in SC. A second place finish will likely ensure a VP consideration, especially if it kills any chance of gaining momentum before Super Tuesday.
Thompson is plagued with 4th place finishes across the board so far, and one tie for third in Iowa. If South Carolina doesn't pan out for Thompson, he will have some serious soul searching to do. The best Thompson may hope for is a McCain victory, and a VP nod from his good friend... However, a surprise win or 2nd place finish tonight could give this summer's "Mr. Inevitable" a breath of life, and potentially a surge of support and delegates heading into Super Tuesday.
Rudy is still holding out for Florida, but as I have said before, with no momentum, no headlines, and waning support. This may be the biggest blunder in presidential campaigning since the Howard Dean scream... YYYEEEEAAAAHHHH!
All eyes are on SC. And for those looking ahead to Super Tuesday, what can we expect to see?
If my prediction of SC is correct, I expect the following:
*WTA = Winner Takes All delegates (by districts or entire state)
Alabama (primary - WTA districts - 48): Huckabee
Alaska (caucus - 29): Huckabee
Arizona (straw poll - WTA state - 53): McCain
Arkansas (primary - WTA district - 34): Huckabee
California (primary - WTA district - 173): Rudy (if he wins Florida)
Colorado (caucus - 46): Huckabee
Connecticut (primary - WTA state - 30): Rudy
Delaware (primary - WTA state - 18): Rudy
Georgia (primary - WTA district - 72): Huckabee
Illinois (straw poll - 70): Huckabee
Massachusetts (primary - 43): Romney
Minnesota (caucus - 41): Huckabee
Missouri (primary - WTA state - 58): Rudy
Montana (caucus - WTA state - 25): Huckabee
New Jersey (primary - WTA state - 52): Rudy
New York (primary - WTA state - 101): Rudy
North Dakota (caucus - WTA state - 26): Huckabee
Oklahoma (primary - WTA district - 41): Huckabee
Tennessee (primary - 55): Thompson
Utah (primary - WTA state - 36): Romney
West Virginia (convention - WTA - 30): Huckabee
Delegate count is nearly impossible, because some states are WTA by district, or proportional... But, let's look at total number of states won:
Rudy: 6 of 21
Huckabee: 11 of 21
McCain: 1 of 21
Romney: 2 of 21
Thompson: 1 of 21
Let's see how SC plays out, and I will be glad to modify these numbers. My predictions come from latest polls in those states, or state voting trends (by issues) where polls where not available, as well as predicted bumps by the predicted SC and Florida finishes.
Some interesting happenings over the last days since Michigan... Mitt Romney is in search of delegates, hoping that delegate count in the "jump to the front" states will mean more than the traditional "first in the nation" states. He had abandoned his campaign in SC, claiming that 4th would be a victory, and instead opted to aim for Nevada, a Mormon stronghold, and a state also offering about ten more delegates. He took a similar approach in Wyoming, a Mormon state, where he was the only candidate who honestly campaigned in the state. He and Duncan Hunter were big winners in Wyoming... so that says something, I suppose.
But what about South Carolina? The state in which no GOP candidate of recent years has lost, but gone on to receive the GOP nomination. A state with strong ties to faith, independence, civil rights issues, and agrarian history. It is a state which encompasses the values of Iowa and New Hampshire... And it is truly a state which must be won by many in the GOP field today if they wish to continue the race for the GOP nomination.
Time for my predictions:
What does this mean?Huckabee........30%
McCain.............26%
Thompson.......19%
Romney.............14%
Rudy.....................6%
Paul......................5%
Romney has made it clear that he plans to hold out for delegates. As I see this being a brokered convention, this is a smart move. He may be in the lead with delegates now, but he will find himself in the middle of the pack after Super Tuesday. Recent polling has shown that he is not doing well in a majority of the Super Tuesday states.
McCain will lick his wounds and live to fight another day... namely in Florida, where he and Rudy seem to be leading the polls... surely, though, a loss in SC will make Florida a hard win. And his recent surge in the national polls will likely be busted in favor of the SC winner.
Mike Huckabee, if he does get the win as I am predicting, will see another surge of support, similar to his Huckaboom of December, and his resurgence after Iowa (though short lived because of NH). Mike Huckabee is a contender in Florida, and has many states locked up in the Super Tuesday contest. He may come out 2nd or possibly 1st after super tuesday (in delegates) with a commanding win in SC. A second place finish will likely ensure a VP consideration, especially if it kills any chance of gaining momentum before Super Tuesday.
Thompson is plagued with 4th place finishes across the board so far, and one tie for third in Iowa. If South Carolina doesn't pan out for Thompson, he will have some serious soul searching to do. The best Thompson may hope for is a McCain victory, and a VP nod from his good friend... However, a surprise win or 2nd place finish tonight could give this summer's "Mr. Inevitable" a breath of life, and potentially a surge of support and delegates heading into Super Tuesday.
Rudy is still holding out for Florida, but as I have said before, with no momentum, no headlines, and waning support. This may be the biggest blunder in presidential campaigning since the Howard Dean scream... YYYEEEEAAAAHHHH!
All eyes are on SC. And for those looking ahead to Super Tuesday, what can we expect to see?
If my prediction of SC is correct, I expect the following:
*WTA = Winner Takes All delegates (by districts or entire state)
Alabama (primary - WTA districts - 48): Huckabee
Alaska (caucus - 29): Huckabee
Arizona (straw poll - WTA state - 53): McCain
Arkansas (primary - WTA district - 34): Huckabee
California (primary - WTA district - 173): Rudy (if he wins Florida)
Colorado (caucus - 46): Huckabee
Connecticut (primary - WTA state - 30): Rudy
Delaware (primary - WTA state - 18): Rudy
Georgia (primary - WTA district - 72): Huckabee
Illinois (straw poll - 70): Huckabee
Massachusetts (primary - 43): Romney
Minnesota (caucus - 41): Huckabee
Missouri (primary - WTA state - 58): Rudy
Montana (caucus - WTA state - 25): Huckabee
New Jersey (primary - WTA state - 52): Rudy
New York (primary - WTA state - 101): Rudy
North Dakota (caucus - WTA state - 26): Huckabee
Oklahoma (primary - WTA district - 41): Huckabee
Tennessee (primary - 55): Thompson
Utah (primary - WTA state - 36): Romney
West Virginia (convention - WTA - 30): Huckabee
Delegate count is nearly impossible, because some states are WTA by district, or proportional... But, let's look at total number of states won:
Rudy: 6 of 21
Huckabee: 11 of 21
McCain: 1 of 21
Romney: 2 of 21
Thompson: 1 of 21
Let's see how SC plays out, and I will be glad to modify these numbers. My predictions come from latest polls in those states, or state voting trends (by issues) where polls where not available, as well as predicted bumps by the predicted SC and Florida finishes.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Republican Race Open, but not THAT Open
This blog is in response to a comment on my previous post, by Ben Degrow over at Mt Virtus. His comment reads:
Regarding Romney's landslide... we must consider the fact that Michigan is an open priamry state, and the Democrats had nothing to vote for on their ticket... so:
Let's discuss how open the race is, and what SC means to which candidates.
Ben, who is a Fred Thompson guy, seems to be holding out for Thompson in SC. And Fred Thompson, who seems to sometimes be a Fred Thompson guy, is also holding out for something big in SC. I just don't see that happening. Fred is in SC, trying to make his stand, but doing so with absolutely no momentum from the first three contests. In the state, Fred Thompson support has gone from over 20% to just under 10% in the last three months... and nothing has happened to suggest a boomlet in Thompson's favor. I still stand by my word that this may be Thompson's last stand. Anything less than a 2nd place finish for Thompson in SC kills any chance for a momentum boomlet. (My Iowa prediction of Thomspon's withdrawal was hampered by a close third place battle between he and McCain, which almost forced him to stay in and take a stand in SC... but it did not help his numbers... they continue to fall)
So to answer the question of "is SC really a McCain, Romney, Thompson showdown?"... the answer is no... the race is open, but not that open! And Huckabee is still alive and well in the Palmetto State. Romney's win yesterday likely stifled McCain's boom, but I don't think it hurt Huckabee... What is hurting Huckabee is the McCain boom... so Romney's wion can only help Huckabee in SC. Based on the intensity of McCain's surge post NH, which was unforeseen at the time I made the two man race prediction, SC is very much a three way race. But Thompson is not in the top three. It will be a Huckabee, McCain, Romney battle in SC. Thompson, unless he can muster up some momentum in the next week, will likely be finished... I know I predicted a withdrawal after Iowa, but maybe the old man stays in to be part of the delegate race. The 4th place finish will be an embarrassment to the Thompson campaign. Remember, Thompson was elevated to savior status before getting into the race. He has, arguably, yet to finish above 4th (or 200 votes from finishing 4th in Iowa)
Regarding the Intratrade... I visited the intratrade site, and there was not an option to buy Huckabee stock in the state. He is not listed. Never was. So I am not using that as a measuring device.
The race is open... indeed! It could not be looking better for Rudy in Florida, though I think his decision to sit out the early contests likely makes him a non-contender in Super Tuesday states now... perhaps Florida could turn that around.
But what do I see in my crystal ball?
For starters, I will tell you what I did NOT see. I did NOT see McCain having such an effective surge... especially in the wake of the Illegal Immigration Shamnesty plan that he tried to ram down our throats. Maybe Tancredo's withdrawal from the race took some of that pressure off McCain, and the issue out of the limelight.
I did NOT see Rudy falling off as much as he has! Rudy is currently polling nationally at 13%, tied with Romney for a distant 3rd. By the time we get to Florida, Rudy will likely be battling Fred in national polls for 4th, somewhere around 10%. That is not a good place to be heading into Super Duper Tuesday.
And I did NOT see Ron Paul beating out Thompson in a state like Michigan. That doesn't do much for Ron Paul at this point, but it doesn't say much for Thompson's support in the state of Michigan.
At this point, we need to take a compass reading. Nevada will likely not give us that reading. Nevada is so wide open, and clearly blowing in the direction of the momentum, that it will likely be a race between the top four: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee, Romney.
If McCain takes SC, McCain will likely win out. If Huckabee takes SC, it will likely move the battle to a two man race on super tuesday. If Romney takes SC, Huckabee's run is likely over, and McCain will likely win out on Super Tuesday, with Romney and Huckabee finishing in a series of 2nds and 3rds... obviously some 1st's in their stronghold states. I don't see Rudy's plan paying off, and I don't see Fred Thompson as a major player anymore.
I am still predicting a brokered convention...
One thing that I know is that the water is very muddy leading up to Super Tuesday!
God Bless!
Let me first begin by congratulating Mitt Romney on his win in Michigan. Michigan was always a pro Romney state, but the big surprise was the McCain surge, making Huckabee a non-player in the state. Ben is right on, and I agree that this race is still open... and it will continue to defy the pundits and predictions... However, without predictions, what fun is it in tracking the race so closely?Respectfully...You wrote in an earlier post: "Should Mitt Romney take the top spot in Michigan, he and Huckabee will battle it out in SC, where it will likely be Huckabee's last stand." Given this previous statement and the fact that Huckabee SC shares are not selling at all on Intrades, do you see anything in tonight's modest 3rd-place MI performance (you predicted he would win here, so this has got to be a big disappointment) to turn around his plummeting SC numbers? Do you see SC as a 3-way race between McCain, Romney, & Thompson (whom you earlier predicted would dropout after the Iowa caucuses)? Do you still think Thompson will have an"embarrassing finish" in SC and withdraw? After this unexpected turn of events (Huckabee in IA, McCain in NH, now Romney in MI), how big of an opening do you see for Rudy's strategy to pay off? Do you agree that this race will continue to defy the pundits & the predictions? (http://bendegrow.com/2008/romney-wins-now-what/)
Regarding Romney's landslide... we must consider the fact that Michigan is an open priamry state, and the Democrats had nothing to vote for on their ticket... so:
Michigan's open primary means Republicans, Democrats, and independents can all
vote in it. Since there's no contested primary on the Dem side, their
participation in the GOP contest could be a wild card. Daily Kos steward
Markos Moulitsas, hoping desperately to be mistaken for a Machiavellian genius,
is encouraging his minions to vote for Romney for mischief's sake, under the
assumption that if he doesn't win today, he drops out. Kos reasons his
side prefers Romney staying in the race so that the well-funded bloodsport of
primary battling will continue among Republicans, presumably injuring the
eventual nominee.
Let's discuss how open the race is, and what SC means to which candidates.
Ben, who is a Fred Thompson guy, seems to be holding out for Thompson in SC. And Fred Thompson, who seems to sometimes be a Fred Thompson guy, is also holding out for something big in SC. I just don't see that happening. Fred is in SC, trying to make his stand, but doing so with absolutely no momentum from the first three contests. In the state, Fred Thompson support has gone from over 20% to just under 10% in the last three months... and nothing has happened to suggest a boomlet in Thompson's favor. I still stand by my word that this may be Thompson's last stand. Anything less than a 2nd place finish for Thompson in SC kills any chance for a momentum boomlet. (My Iowa prediction of Thomspon's withdrawal was hampered by a close third place battle between he and McCain, which almost forced him to stay in and take a stand in SC... but it did not help his numbers... they continue to fall)
So to answer the question of "is SC really a McCain, Romney, Thompson showdown?"... the answer is no... the race is open, but not that open! And Huckabee is still alive and well in the Palmetto State. Romney's win yesterday likely stifled McCain's boom, but I don't think it hurt Huckabee... What is hurting Huckabee is the McCain boom... so Romney's wion can only help Huckabee in SC. Based on the intensity of McCain's surge post NH, which was unforeseen at the time I made the two man race prediction, SC is very much a three way race. But Thompson is not in the top three. It will be a Huckabee, McCain, Romney battle in SC. Thompson, unless he can muster up some momentum in the next week, will likely be finished... I know I predicted a withdrawal after Iowa, but maybe the old man stays in to be part of the delegate race. The 4th place finish will be an embarrassment to the Thompson campaign. Remember, Thompson was elevated to savior status before getting into the race. He has, arguably, yet to finish above 4th (or 200 votes from finishing 4th in Iowa)
Regarding the Intratrade... I visited the intratrade site, and there was not an option to buy Huckabee stock in the state. He is not listed. Never was. So I am not using that as a measuring device.
The race is open... indeed! It could not be looking better for Rudy in Florida, though I think his decision to sit out the early contests likely makes him a non-contender in Super Tuesday states now... perhaps Florida could turn that around.
But what do I see in my crystal ball?For starters, I will tell you what I did NOT see. I did NOT see McCain having such an effective surge... especially in the wake of the Illegal Immigration Shamnesty plan that he tried to ram down our throats. Maybe Tancredo's withdrawal from the race took some of that pressure off McCain, and the issue out of the limelight.
I did NOT see Rudy falling off as much as he has! Rudy is currently polling nationally at 13%, tied with Romney for a distant 3rd. By the time we get to Florida, Rudy will likely be battling Fred in national polls for 4th, somewhere around 10%. That is not a good place to be heading into Super Duper Tuesday.
And I did NOT see Ron Paul beating out Thompson in a state like Michigan. That doesn't do much for Ron Paul at this point, but it doesn't say much for Thompson's support in the state of Michigan.
At this point, we need to take a compass reading. Nevada will likely not give us that reading. Nevada is so wide open, and clearly blowing in the direction of the momentum, that it will likely be a race between the top four: McCain, Rudy, Huckabee, Romney.
If McCain takes SC, McCain will likely win out. If Huckabee takes SC, it will likely move the battle to a two man race on super tuesday. If Romney takes SC, Huckabee's run is likely over, and McCain will likely win out on Super Tuesday, with Romney and Huckabee finishing in a series of 2nds and 3rds... obviously some 1st's in their stronghold states. I don't see Rudy's plan paying off, and I don't see Fred Thompson as a major player anymore.
I am still predicting a brokered convention...
One thing that I know is that the water is very muddy leading up to Super Tuesday!
God Bless!
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