Something Fishy in Nevada

Every other poll across the nation was right on the money - except in Nevada, the earliest state to start reporting concerns about voter fraud. Each and every race across this fair nation fell to within 1% point of Real Clear Politics polling, for the most part - even the hugely contested and perpetually "Toss-Up" states. However, in Nevada, The apparently VERY popular Harry Reid has pulled an election day miracle, swinging the polls BY TEN POINTS in his favor as of this posting.

I don't want to prematurely cry foul here. But it is late and I am ready to call it a night and go home. It appears that the outcome in the Senate is set - the GOP will remain the minority. I still believe that we win Colorado and Washington, which are still counting, giving us a 49/51 disadvantage. Not bad. If Nevada turns in Angel's favor between now and tomorrow morning, 50/50 is not a bad place to be.

BONUS:
The House is unfathomable. We have picked up 52 seats and counting on the Right, setting pace to pick up nearly 75 seats for the night.

PLUS:
The big question will be surrounding Colorado's governor race - Does the GOP become a minor party in that state due to Dan Maes' showing of less than 10% for the GOP? This has huge implications to the party, but should also remind the people of Colorado that principle should ALWAYS come before party. Not to mention they just shot themselves in the foot at a time when they could have easily taken the Capitol in a redistricting term. Look for Colorado to become a blue state for the next ten years.

Update on GOP Senate Fight - Nevada

In my earlier column, Republicans Will Take Senate?, I laid out the logistics behind a senate upset by the GOP, namely in two western states: Washington and Nevada. As of the latest CNN/Time poll, Real Clear Politics shows a tie in the state on average and has moved it into the Republican Victory column in their "No Toss Up" calculations. This means that Real Clear Politics, as of October 6th, does not project Harry Reid as being able to win re-election in Nevada.

Harry Reid is plagued with problems. In the Senate, in Nevada, even in his own home. The man's falling numbers are a direct sign of those troubles. Sharon Angle, Tea Party candidate (and one of the first big wins nationwide in the primaries), is currently tied with Reid at 43.5%, but she has all the momentum heading into October, and she is gaining traction in the polls where Reid is losing everything.

In line with my earlier predictions, I believe Nevada is accurately placed into the (R) column, and will be party to the movement aimed at correcting the focus and reach of our government.

Go Sharon Go!

GOP Ahead in Polls, but...

Real Clear Politics latest generic congressional poll shows that the Republican Party holds a 5 point lead over the Democrats, and that on average, the two parties are neck in neck... a far cry from a year ago when Democrats were enjoying a nearly 20 point advantage...

However, headlines such as "Harry Reid may lose seat to Republican Challenger" are meaningless when a vote for Republicans is nothing more than an opposition vote! The GOP has done little to resolve the issues with its leadership since the major whooping it was given in November of 2008. There has been much wound licking, but little actual realization at the top of the party ticket, leading me to believe that, should there be another Presidential election tomorrow, the GOP would still be inclined to run a horrible McCain style candidate and campaign.

What has not been realized is the one thing that is going to be overshadowed by the sudden popularity of the GOP - Consistent Message about Small Government.

The formula is simple: When Democrats act like Republicans they win, when Republicans act like Democrats they lose. Simpler yet, when either party stands against the growth of government, they are the victor - and it usually happens when they are in the minority.

Yes - if we sweep out the new Democrats and replace them with a Republican majority, there would be no change... NO CHANGE.

Sure, the topic of discussion may vary a little, however, the substance would remain the same... "How can we grow government to control one or more aspects of your life in order to obtain our objective?"

Where the GOP stands to make gains is to openly and honestly declare that THEY are the prescription for the ailment that is overbearing government. The GOP MUST make measurable steps in reducing the size of the government, returning it to a subordinate to the people.

The GOP leadership, in order to maintain a permanent majority, must set out a road map to liberty - a plan to return the country to the free men. They must sell this plan to the public, and follow through on every word. What would such a plan look like?

There must be a solid plan to eliminate government programs and agencies which are cancerous, including the Federal Reserve, the Department of Education, and other such money pits.

There must be an increased awareness of the role of the states and the people, stressing the importance of state governments to take the responsibilities to support programs which are needed/wanted by their residents.

There must be a clear message that "Compassionate Conservatism", or forced neoconservatism is over. We must be the party of liberty, not a forced social agenda. We need to draw the line in the sand on forced lifestyles! If we can differentiate ourselves here, we pick up a permanent majority.

As I have said in previous posts, the era of thinking that "our worst is still better than their best" is done. We need to define our message, stay on message, and support leaders for their ability to lead on that message - not merely because there is an R or a D after their name... We must break this style of thinking, and in doing so, we must show competency in our own ability to hold the public trust in a manner that leads to liberty.

Anything less is criminal. Anything less is merely more of the same.

Obama: Get in Their Face! - INTIMIDATION gets the Green Light for "Unity" ticket

Hardcore Obama supporters are encouraged to fight with their neighbors if they don't support Barack Obama. In Barry Hussein's latest attempt to bring "unity" to the Untied States in the face of increased political polarity, his solution is to harass and "get in the faces" of those who do not agree with their politics.

"I need you to go out and talk to your friends and talk to your neighbors. I want you to talk to them whether they are independent or whether they are Republican. I want you to argue with them and get in their face," he said.

The request was made by Obama at a rally in Elko Nevada.

There was a recent request by a Presidential Candidate to "get in the faces" of the opposition party. The request for INTIMIDATION POLITICS was made by Robert Mugabe - the "President" of Zimbabwe, whose supporters murdered and tortured thousands in opposition to Mugabe. The result was a scream! Over a million people voted out of fear for their lives - changing their votes in favor of Mugabe to avoid torture or murder of their family.

Now, Barack's new policy of INTIMIDATION is nothing short of fascist. His request to verbally assault neighbors who refuse to bend knee before "The One" is Chicago Style Intimidation Politics at its worse.

You can see the smile on his face as he is encouraging violence, and the willingness and understanding of what his supporters have been asked is clear in their cheers after the request. Obama has given the green light to harass, to intimidate, to act like chaotic thugs in order scare opposition out of the voter booth on November 4th.

These thuggish tactics are textbook Marxist tactics of intimidation. These are Mafia style tactics, forcing compliance.

If this is the unity that Obama intends to bring to this free nation, I have a message for him: I F*ing Dare you to get in MY face!

GOP: So, Who Has the Momentum Again?

It is January 24th, 2008... Five days before the Florida showdown... Twelve days before Super Tuesday. A number of contests have cleared the field of candidates who failed to materialize, leaving behind a race that is as out of the ordinary as a San Francisco Conservative.

Huckabee claimed first blood in Iowa, taking the state from the long time favorite there, Mitt Romney. The Huckaboom had paid off, and Huck's momentum was back.

Fast on his tail was John McCain, perhaps in anticipation of his contest in New Hampshire, where Independents were able to rally behind their man as they did 8 years prior. John McCain's win in New Hampshire helped further propel his numbers in the positive direction, giving him the highest level of support since entering the race over a year ago.

Meanwhile, smaller and less contested races were taking place in states like Wyoming, Michigan, and Nevada... Victories out of these states heralded little notice by the press, but the delegates counted just the same as in the traditional early states. Mitt Romney's victories in these widely uncontested states did little to add to his momentum, though there is something to be said for leading the delegate count before Super Tuesday, and that is the headline he was hoping for.

Rudy Guiliani has yet to break 10% in a contest in the early states. His strategy of "Go Big or Go Home", where he is playing in states with only sizable delegate counts, has done little more than employ an army of campaign eulogy writers... but for Rudy, there is always Florida, right?

And all the while, Ron Paul and his supporters, after stacking every online poll in an attempt to appear as a front-runner, has been unable to muster more than 5% nationally in the polls, and has had his best showing in an uncontested Nevada, where he placed a very distant 2nd.

So I ask the question... Who has the momentum again?

The answer is simply: No One!

Fred Thompson's drop from the race, and lack of an expected endorsement, has left a large field of undecided voters hesitant to join any one campaign. The lack of a McCain endorsement has further served to help add gravity to McCain's falling national numbers, as voters remember why his campaign imploded over the summer: Immigration.

Duncan Hunter, yesterday, in an attempt to help swings some momentum in the direction of the Social Conservatives, endorsed Mike Huckabee... unfortunately this endorsement received little fanfare from the media, as they have all but declared the Huckabee campaign a bust. Huckabee is doing little to help his own campaign by not aggressively pursuing Thompson's supporters. Instead his campaign released a short press advisory welcoming support... while at the same time his campaign Chairman Chip Saltzman took a hit at Fred Thompson on the Mike Huckabee Campaign Blog. Huckabee missed an opportunity to claim victory in SC after the contest, by claiming that Fred's withdrawal, had it happened prior to the race, would have made him the clear victor.

Rudy's numbers have flatlined, which for him is a good thing at this point. A flatline is much better than the nose-dive he was seeing. This hesitation in the plummet may be temporary, unless he can pull off a come from behind win in Florida. Rudy's only source of momentum is anticipation of Florida... but all the momentum leads up to is a simple "no change".

Mitt Romney seems unable to break the invisible barrier of 16% in the national polls. His campaign had surged in the past, only to hit 16% and fall... rising again, only to fall again... he is at 15.8%, but the trend is ominous for his campaign!

It is hard to say what will happen in the debate tonight, but easy to see what must be done. There is a new flood of undecided Thompson voters that could cling to a new campaign and propel that campaign to the White House. Every person left on that stage needs to spend tonight aggressively wooing the ex-Fred-heads. The candidate who stands to pick up the votes MUST be conservative socially (this excludes Rudy and potentially McCain), must be strong, and must actually ASK for their support... no subtleties... now is not the time!

With no momentum from any candidate, no clear front-runner, and all candidates within 10% of being the leader on a very fluid scale... We start tonight at square ONE!