Monday, February 4, 2008

Super Bowl, Super Tuesday

Coming from Seattle, I have been trained to have a natural disdain for anything coming out of New York. However, like any reasonably stable individual, I understand that there are times when one should support a team, despite their New York status.

Add to it that I just LOVE an underdog, and I will have to admit that I was pulling for the New York Giants to upset the Pats. Let's just say that it was a very vocal and entertaining Super Bowl party at my house yesterday! What an historic game, and a very dissapointing showing from the team that was crowned the victor before the show even began.

Which leads me into Super Tuesday. Granted, the house parties will be few and far between... but I am hoping for the results to be the same.

I am invoking the name of the Underdog... who's spirit is alive and well in the wake of the Giant's upset of the Pats.
When it comes down to selecting a candidate, electiblity comes with support... it is the message that matters! Anyone is electible, if they can overcome their hurdles... what is important is the consistency of the message.

This will be the big show for both the Dems and the Republicans... and where the Democrats once lauded the GOP for such a contested race with no clear front-runner, they find themselves up to their ears in the same mud!

Who will play the role of the phoenix? Who will rise from the ashes of Super Tuesday and claim victory? Will it be Obama over Hillary? Will it be Huckabee over McCain and Romney?

The first contest is in West Virginia, whos convention concludes at 12:30 ET tomorrow. According to this WSJ site, the West Virginia contest is still wide open between all three candidates. The way West Virginia is voting is a convention, where the candidates are granted 20 minutes each... if they decide to show up. They can use that 20 minutes to woo the delegates, and go for a first round win early in the day. Romney and Huckabee are leading the state, but most delegates are uncommitted. Any candidate who shows up, especially if uncontested, will likely win the convention.

The next state to close is Georgia. Huckabee must win in this state. Georgia is a pulse on how the other Huckabee sympathetic states may vote. Since Iowa, Huckabee has failed to win any states. South Carolina was a bad blow to his momentum, and since then his supporters have been looking for a sign that his campaign has not been critically wounded. Polling shows Huckabee up in Georgia, Tennessee, and Arkansas... though his lead has eroded away since SC and Florida. Huckabee needs to make headlines today if he plans to win tomorrow!

Mitt Romney is also battling the McCain monster across the US. In my previous post, I did not predict a strong showing for Romney... But Romney has some momentum, coming out of a Maine win... (yeah, Maine voted this last weekend... who knew?)... Romney's struggle is for the top of the ticket. I have said it a number of times, Romney has made no friends in the field of candidates... should he come out behind with delegates, he may as well throw in the towel, because he can't and won't get the VP nod.

McCain has the momentum, but it may be a little too sugar coated for a lot of voters. They still remember 2000, and then the bills that he led since then. Folks are heistant to support McCain because he truly is a Republican Maverick. Can a maverick lead the party, or levaae it in disarray?

And then there is Ron Paul. I had originally counted him out of all the state contests, but he is rising in the polls as an alternate to the three that are above him. He stands a decent chance to show strength in an independent state like Alaska... I originally was calling this state for the Independent minded McCain, but Paul is the only candidate with a campaign office in the state, and any real organization on the ground. Could Ron Paul pick up Alaska?

Of course, as I said, today is the day for the candidates to make some headlines. Press conferences are nice, but resounding policy speeches are better! Now is the time to be blunt, be presidential, and hope that you can pick up those undecided voters!


  1. The better analogy to the Underdog (but mainly underestimated) NY Giants beating the Pats in the Super Bowl would be a Romney win on Super Tuesday. A Huckabee win would have to be compared to the Miami Dolphins ending the Pats' perfect season. A Ron Paul win would have to be compared to your favorite local High School football team beating the Pats.

    Have you been to Real Clear Politics lately? Huck isn't leading in any state (besides Arkansas) that I can see. McCain is leading in most, though CA, GA & TN all look very close (the latter two as 3-way races).

  2. Huckabee is slipping in the polls, but he is still able to win a number of states!

    Remember what the polls said would happen in NH, SC, etc.. etc...

    Beware the amount of stock you put in the polls! Use them as guides. If two candidates are close, it can go either way.