Monday, October 20, 2008

DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN - The Problem with Polling

To understand why Obama is leading in the polls, read through the polling numbers, all the way to the bottom - there is a disclaimer: "For polling data released during the week of October 19-25, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.7% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.3% unaffiliated."

In this Rasmussen poll, Obama has a +4% lead over John McCain - but the poll would indicate that Democrats were polled at a higher rate of 40% to Republican's 33% - a 7% advantage.

Is there any wonder why Obama is ahead in the polls?

And what is NOT being reported by the polls - IBD polling reports Obama up by 5% nationally... which is what the headline would read across the nation - but what the headline SHOULD read is that 12% of Americans are UNDECIDED two weeks before the vote!

This is not the first time that polling has given false results. Consider the following historical image:

In 1948, polls showed Dewey as the favorite in all polls - unfortunately, the polls were conducted by telephone, and at that time, not every household had telephones. It was an historical fudge on the order of the 2000 call of Florida for Gore before voting was even finished in the panhandle!

These polls are a farce, being used to undermine a clear victory by John McCain by convincing the consumers of the nation that Obama had won, and that McCain must have stolen the election. The attempts by the media are clear, and disturbing. Confuse the people into anger - then send the angry people into the streets to protest our form of government - perhaps an attempt to kill the electoral college system in favor of a populist vote - which the founders where clearly against! Populism is the killer of freedom!


  1. I was at the grocery store on Saturday morning, I overheard a black man, talking to a white woman who was working behind the meat counter. They were encouraging each other about these polls and that Obama should win.
    Then the woman said something that sent chills down my spine.

    "If he doesn't there is going to be a revolution"

  2. Bob -

    That is an interesting comment - and it is one that is echoing across the nation. That is not the first time I had heard a suggestion of revolution regardless of the outcome of the election. Folks are whispering it to their neighbors, friends amongst friends... there is something in the air... and yes - it sends chills down my spine.

    You must remember this (and maybe I'll post a blog about it) - the left believe that an Obama victory IS the result of a revolution in America. There are lefty blogs who use martial Arts techniques to get the point across that the target is not the election, but beyond the election (like not punching the board, but beyond the board). Their goal is a victory, and a restructure of our entire society into a socialist utopia.

    Socialist Utopia - oxymoron...

    If that is the case, the right minded base is ready to take action - or so the whispers say.

    If the left loses, there will be a populist uprising, civil disobedience, and general anti-establishment violence starting in the inner cities - or so the whispering (and grocery store conversations) says.

    Either way, the United States is at a crossroads... everyone feels it, everyone is talking about it... who knows what may come of it.