Thursday, June 7, 2007

Polling and the 2008 Presidential Race

I would like to first thank my friends at the Huckabee '08 blog for alerting me to this article. Please check their blog for a complete Arkansas based analysis of the results and possible race.

The Rasmussen Reports polls have FINALLY conducted a Huckabee poll, pitting him against Clinton, Obama, and Edwards for 2008. The results? Clinton holds only a single digit lead (Clinton 48% / Huckabee 43%). What this means is that Clinton, who most likely holds the lead on name recognition alone, is within reach of this up and coming candidate. Obama and Edwards were polling higher than Clinton against all candidates in this 800 voter study, 47% of which declared that they definitely would not vote for Hillary. That leave a 10% undecided on the Clinton/Huckabee poll. How to get that 10%? Let Mike talk about education, arts in education, and taxes... and stop ONLY asking him about his religious views in the debates! Enough already - the man is a level headed Christian. Move On!

Regarding the Iowa Straw Polls - WOW... what a choice for the slipping top tier candidates!

Giuliani and McCain have both decided to not participate in the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, and for good reason: Romney is expected to beat them both. A Romney win in those polls would be a BIG hit to their campaign, and a trump for Romney. So what should we expect to see? With Fred Thompson also not participating, we should see a Romney lead with a great showing of support for the other candidates, namely Huckabee!

"No candidate has skipped the straw poll and gone on to win the caucuses in the past 30 years..."
The Ames poll is a huge benchmark test for the nomination, measuring the organization ability and strength of the campaigns, and the fact that two of the "top three" are declining to participate because of an expected poor showing is disappointing. I say, if you are in it to win it, let's see what the PEOPLE think! I mean, honestly, NYTimes polling can only get you so far... Leave it in the hands of the voters, and let's see what the NEW direction of the party is going to be.

One thing that I have been saying for some time now, the "Top Candidates" want nothing more than to maintain the status quo. We need to put some spin on this story and expose the "Top Candidates" for what they are... beatable!

1 comment:

  1. I am happy to see that Huckabee is doing better in the polls. If it ends up being a race between Hillary & Huckabee, Mike is a sure thing. I don't think the country will ever be ready for Hillary.

    It is a foolish error for McCain & Rudy not to participate in the straw polls. But their mistake is Mike Huckabee's gain.

    I like the Massachusetts for Huckabee banner that you made, thanks for adding me to your blogroll!