Straw Poll Results, and the new field of GOP candidates

For starters, congratulations to Mike Huckabee and Tom Tancredo for incredible finishes in the Iowa Straw Poll! Mike's 2nd place finishing was needed to give his candidacy the legitimacy it deserves in the main stream... of course the contest is being downplayed because Rudy-the-Elite and Sinking-Ship-McCain were not participating.

What this does show is that of the "other" candidates, who spent about 1/10th of what Mitt Romney spent, we could bring in very strong support.

The results are as follows:
1. Mitt Romney –32 percent
2. Mike Huckabee – 18 percent
3. Sam Brownback – 15 percent
4. Tom Tancredo – 14 percent
5. Ron Paul – 9 percent
6. Tommy Thompson — 7 percent
7. Fred Thompson – 1 percent
8. Rudolph W. Giuliani – 1 percent
9. Duncan Hunter – 1 percent
10. John McCain (less than 1 percent)
11. John Cox (less than 1 percent)
The vote totals for the top three:
Mr. Romney — 4,516 votes;
Mr. Huckabee — 2,587;
Mr. Brownback – 2,192

What does this mean to the field of GOP candidates?

As I predicted after the Iowa Debates one week ago, Tommy Thompson was one of the first to take the fall and withdraw from the race. His campaign was convinced that they would have a strong second place finish in Ames... but after a poor 6th place showing he made good on his promise to leave the race - leaving us with his blunt candor: "I'm outta the race"

Of course my prediction was that Duncan Hunter would be the first to go, and with a 9th place finish tallying less votes than Rudy and Fred Thompson (about 150 total votes), I am sure that it was a waiting game to see how the other less than favorable candidates reacted. Within the next few days, I would expect to see Mr. Hunter also withdraw.

Mike Huckabee's stellar 2nd place finish has motivated his base to move forward and continue to push past the other candidates, joining the front-runners.

What is troubling is that the numbers that Brownback was able to muster have done more to motivate his base as well... so the "Holy Warrior" will most likely fight on, bringing his bag of dirty tricks along with him.

And the biggest winner of the poll was Congressman Tom Tancredo, with a 4th place finish. I am on the Team Tancredo mailing list, and the campaign is buzzing with excitement over the finish... I don't blame them! I wonder how many more debates Tom will spend in the wings of the stage? Well, with the field dwindling before the next debate, maybe he will be put to the side... But his strong message on border security and ensuring that America is a safe, English speaking, American-first nationalist place to live will continue on.

The funny thing is that I think that McCain's finish about where it would have been in Iowa even if he HAD spent some of his blown $25 million there... with his constant snubbing of Iowa, I am confused as to why they even let him into the state!

As for the results, farewell Sir Thompson. Your candidness will be missed. And may I be the first to say to you, Sir Hunter, thank you for support of the military, and best of luck to you in your future endeavors.

Here is to the new, leaner list of GOP Candidates...

God Bless

Polling and the 2008 Presidential Race

I would like to first thank my friends at the Huckabee '08 blog for alerting me to this article. Please check their blog for a complete Arkansas based analysis of the results and possible race.

The Rasmussen Reports polls have FINALLY conducted a Huckabee poll, pitting him against Clinton, Obama, and Edwards for 2008. The results? Clinton holds only a single digit lead (Clinton 48% / Huckabee 43%). What this means is that Clinton, who most likely holds the lead on name recognition alone, is within reach of this up and coming candidate. Obama and Edwards were polling higher than Clinton against all candidates in this 800 voter study, 47% of which declared that they definitely would not vote for Hillary. That leave a 10% undecided on the Clinton/Huckabee poll. How to get that 10%? Let Mike talk about education, arts in education, and taxes... and stop ONLY asking him about his religious views in the debates! Enough already - the man is a level headed Christian. Move On!

Regarding the Iowa Straw Polls - WOW... what a choice for the slipping top tier candidates!

Giuliani and McCain have both decided to not participate in the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, and for good reason: Romney is expected to beat them both. A Romney win in those polls would be a BIG hit to their campaign, and a trump for Romney. So what should we expect to see? With Fred Thompson also not participating, we should see a Romney lead with a great showing of support for the other candidates, namely Huckabee!

"No candidate has skipped the straw poll and gone on to win the caucuses in the past 30 years..."
The Ames poll is a huge benchmark test for the nomination, measuring the organization ability and strength of the campaigns, and the fact that two of the "top three" are declining to participate because of an expected poor showing is disappointing. I say, if you are in it to win it, let's see what the PEOPLE think! I mean, honestly, NYTimes polling can only get you so far... Leave it in the hands of the voters, and let's see what the NEW direction of the party is going to be.

One thing that I have been saying for some time now, the "Top Candidates" want nothing more than to maintain the status quo. We need to put some spin on this story and expose the "Top Candidates" for what they are... beatable!