The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.The strength of the economy should be reflected by a strengthening dollar, by an increase in employment, and by an increase in sales. However, I fail to see what these "expert forecasters" are seeing. There is no tangible evidence that the economy is recovering, that a recession is over, or that we are not slipping into a mild depression... other than them trying to convince us otherwise and hoping for a change in the market in the future:
"The great recession is over," said NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser.
"The vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended, but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."
"most experts don't expect meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come"
Consider the value of the dollar on the world market - against the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar, and the Euro. The dollar has been completely and utterly decimated, and continues to lose value.
Against the Yen, the USD currently holds only 70% of its pre-recession value. The Canadian Dollar is virtually on par with the USD. The USD is fastly approaching an all time currency exchange against the Euro.
There is a trend. In October 2008 all three exchange values favored a positive trend for the USD. The dollar gained value ahead of the replacement of GWB. The USD even held value after the election and up to the inauguration of Capt. Hopey Changey... at which point the USD went back into free fall. The current administration has been unable to positively effect the value of the USD.
The US Unemployment rate is currently at 9.5% and expected to continue to rise to double digits. There are currently 15 states/districts that are well above this average rate - falling between 10-15% unemployment, though the trend is the same across the board. Unemployment is up and expected to rise. Adjusting for seasonal fluctuations associated with Christmas shopping, there is no clear indication that this winter is going to end the recession, end unemployment, or end the downward trend... only a forecast now with expected changes in results at some later date...
New home construction is still slow. Home sales and prices are still looking for bottom. Massive movements of population are taking place, fleeing dieing markets and dieing regions for more favorable and affordable living. What has changed? One thing. Obama.
The same forecasters who, since 2005 were screaming that the economy was in recession are now stating that it is in recovery... There is no such thing as a three year recession... we were not IN a recession until we were convinced the United States was in a recession... and shortly after the Obama election forecasters stated that 'by September or October' we expect to see recovery of the economy. Well, here we are and of course, the news is starting to hit the airwaves... The economy has been saved. The recession is over.
So what we are seeing is a self made recession, followed by an imaginary recovery... If we say it enough and convince ourselves that it is true, we will start seeing changes in trends in the future...
Am I the only one who is catching the irony of this trend?
Trying not to be perpetually pessimistic, I am hoping for an economic recovery... but I have also been working through the down turn supporting my local markets and economy all along: