RECESSION OVER! Reuters Reports Economic Growth

Reuters is reporting: US recession over, unemployment to peak at 10 pct-survey

The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.
"The great recession is over," said NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser.
"The vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended, but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."

The strength of the economy should be reflected by a strengthening dollar, by an increase in employment, and by an increase in sales. However, I fail to see what these "expert forecasters" are seeing. There is no tangible evidence that the economy is recovering, that a recession is over, or that we are not slipping into a mild depression... other than them trying to convince us otherwise and hoping for a change in the market in the future:

"most experts don't expect meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come"

Consider the value of the dollar on the world market - against the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar, and the Euro. The dollar has been completely and utterly decimated, and continues to lose value.

Against the Yen, the USD currently holds only 70% of its pre-recession value. The Canadian Dollar is virtually on par with the USD. The USD is fastly approaching an all time currency exchange against the Euro.

There is a trend. In October 2008 all three exchange values favored a positive trend for the USD. The dollar gained value ahead of the replacement of GWB. The USD even held value after the election and up to the inauguration of Capt. Hopey Changey... at which point the USD went back into free fall. The current administration has been unable to positively effect the value of the USD.

The US Unemployment rate is currently at 9.5% and expected to continue to rise to double digits. There are currently 15 states/districts that are well above this average rate - falling between 10-15% unemployment, though the trend is the same across the board. Unemployment is up and expected to rise. Adjusting for seasonal fluctuations associated with Christmas shopping, there is no clear indication that this winter is going to end the recession, end unemployment, or end the downward trend... only a forecast now with expected changes in results at some later date...

New home construction is still slow. Home sales and prices are still looking for bottom. Massive movements of population are taking place, fleeing dieing markets and dieing regions for more favorable and affordable living. What has changed? One thing. Obama.

The same forecasters who, since 2005 were screaming that the economy was in recession are now stating that it is in recovery... There is no such thing as a three year recession... we were not IN a recession until we were convinced the United States was in a recession... and shortly after the Obama election forecasters stated that 'by September or October' we expect to see recovery of the economy. Well, here we are and of course, the news is starting to hit the airwaves... The economy has been saved. The recession is over.

So what we are seeing is a self made recession, followed by an imaginary recovery... If we say it enough and convince ourselves that it is true, we will start seeing changes in trends in the future...

Am I the only one who is catching the irony of this trend?

Trying not to be perpetually pessimistic, I am hoping for an economic recovery... but I have also been working through the down turn supporting my local markets and economy all along:

Quote of the Year

I have to say, this one is going to be hard to beat:

"Used to be gold, but now lead is the most expensive metal," said Donald Richards, 37, "And worth every penny."

In response to the year long ammunition shortage due to Gun Control fears of an Obama Administration. (Thankfully we have successfully stalled him on Health Care that he hasn't gotten around to gun legislation yet)

As of this posting, Gold was listed at $995/oz. or $14,510 per pound. Lead is priced at 96 cents per pound.

Lead, not truly "the most expensive metal", but we know what you mean... wink wink!

No Time to Celebrate - America Under Seige

Happy Birthday, Mr Lincoln. Though I am not such a fan as other Republicans, your resolution of the Civil War has had a lasting affect on these United States.

However, there is no time to celebrate.

The Economic Stimulus, Lincoln's Birthday, and a Plummeting DJIA are all important in their own rights, however, are acting as distractions to some nasty happenings in the United States.

First is H.R. 45 (Blair Holt's Firearm Licensing and Record of Sale Act of 2009). It requires, within the first two years, that all new guns be registered. The bill goes retroactive after two years. Meaning that two years after the passage of the bill, ALL FIREARMS in a citizen's possession must be registered, not just those purchased after the bill passes, and this apparently applies to antique firearms as well. Every five years the firearm owner must go through a complete renewal process for each weapon owned. Failure to comply carries stiff penalties including confiscation of the firearms and jail time (penalties as high as ten years imprisonment in some cases). The bill also authorizes government searches without warrant, the creation of a federal bureaucracy to monitor firearm possession, etc.

**The Bill Prohibits:
1. Transferring a firearm to any person other than a licensee, unless the transfer is processed through a licensed dealer in accordance with national instant criminal background check system requirements, with exceptions;
2. Licensed manufacturer or dealer from failing to comply with reporting and record keeping requirements of this Act;
3. Failing to report the loss or theft of the firearm to the Attorney General within 72 hours;
4. Failing to report to the Attorney General an address change within 60 days;
5. Keeping a loaded firearm, or an unloaded firearm and ammunition for the firearm, knowingly or recklessly disregarding the risk that a child is capable of gaining access, if a child uses the firearm and causes death or serious bodily injury.

**Prescribes criminal penalties for violations of firearms provisions covered by this Act. Directs the Attorney General to:
1. Establish and maintain a firearm injury information clearinghouse;
2. Conduct continuing studies and investigations of firearm-related deaths and injuries; and
3. Collect and maintain current production and sales figures of each licensed manufacturer. Authorizes the Attorney General to certify state firearm licensing or record of sale systems.

The bill is being reworked to attract co-sponsors, but it is the very type of law that Obama would gladly sign - see my previous post on the Heller decision under an Obama Court.

Secondly, The Civil war brewing in Mexico is beginning to spill over into the United States - target Phoenix. Phoenix AZ has become the target of Mexico City style ransom kidnap attacks - the tactic preferred by Mexican drug lords/warlords... drug violence, which is fueling unrest in the Latin American country is now being imported across our failed southern border - and there is nothing being done to stop it. With the drug demand in the United States being the fuel for the fire in Mexico, it is not surprising that the violence associated with the war follow the supply. Is Martial Law on the horizon for the border states?