RECESSION OVER! Reuters Reports Economic Growth

Reuters is reporting: US recession over, unemployment to peak at 10 pct-survey

The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.
"The great recession is over," said NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser.
"The vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended, but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."

The strength of the economy should be reflected by a strengthening dollar, by an increase in employment, and by an increase in sales. However, I fail to see what these "expert forecasters" are seeing. There is no tangible evidence that the economy is recovering, that a recession is over, or that we are not slipping into a mild depression... other than them trying to convince us otherwise and hoping for a change in the market in the future:

"most experts don't expect meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come"

Consider the value of the dollar on the world market - against the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar, and the Euro. The dollar has been completely and utterly decimated, and continues to lose value.

Against the Yen, the USD currently holds only 70% of its pre-recession value. The Canadian Dollar is virtually on par with the USD. The USD is fastly approaching an all time currency exchange against the Euro.

There is a trend. In October 2008 all three exchange values favored a positive trend for the USD. The dollar gained value ahead of the replacement of GWB. The USD even held value after the election and up to the inauguration of Capt. Hopey Changey... at which point the USD went back into free fall. The current administration has been unable to positively effect the value of the USD.

The US Unemployment rate is currently at 9.5% and expected to continue to rise to double digits. There are currently 15 states/districts that are well above this average rate - falling between 10-15% unemployment, though the trend is the same across the board. Unemployment is up and expected to rise. Adjusting for seasonal fluctuations associated with Christmas shopping, there is no clear indication that this winter is going to end the recession, end unemployment, or end the downward trend... only a forecast now with expected changes in results at some later date...

New home construction is still slow. Home sales and prices are still looking for bottom. Massive movements of population are taking place, fleeing dieing markets and dieing regions for more favorable and affordable living. What has changed? One thing. Obama.

The same forecasters who, since 2005 were screaming that the economy was in recession are now stating that it is in recovery... There is no such thing as a three year recession... we were not IN a recession until we were convinced the United States was in a recession... and shortly after the Obama election forecasters stated that 'by September or October' we expect to see recovery of the economy. Well, here we are and of course, the news is starting to hit the airwaves... The economy has been saved. The recession is over.

So what we are seeing is a self made recession, followed by an imaginary recovery... If we say it enough and convince ourselves that it is true, we will start seeing changes in trends in the future...

Am I the only one who is catching the irony of this trend?

Trying not to be perpetually pessimistic, I am hoping for an economic recovery... but I have also been working through the down turn supporting my local markets and economy all along:

Pucker Factor or Market Correction?

The Dow Jones crossed a dangerous threshold, and may still have more to lose - should it cross below 6000 points it would represent the 2/3 sell-off which began the Great Depression. So, are we heading into a greater depression? Or is this a natural market correction cutting off years of fat acquired by indulgence in credit and living beyond our means?

We have to ask ourselves what values we hold most dear, what values we intend on "clinging to" in these times of 'lesser plenty', and what this may mean to how we conduct business, family, and life in general!

If one were to look at the Dow Jones, which is the canary to our economy, you would notice the importance of crossing the threshold of the 8000 point mark today. The 8000 mark is the exact mark where the United States would be had we been witness to steady and responsible market growth.
The Technology Boom in the late 1990's began a perceived era of prosperity - however, this era soon met it's demise as dotcom businesses proved unreliable and unstable on the market of industry. This stagnation was capped by the attacks of 9/11, which began an era of uncertainty in the US markets - and the world markets, as nations ceased to be defined by maps. This instability brought into question the reason and logic behind "business without borders", and the ideals of a fully global market without national interest. In fact, the US citizen ceased to exist, replaced with the title "consumer". When our nation was attacked, our marching orders were not to act as a Militia and strengthen our defenses - rather it was "keep shopping", an order to continue to purchase items made in China in order to stabilize the world markets.

This Unstable period saw excuse for the Bush administration to increase the government, and governmental spending to record sizes - But he is not fully to blame - Clinton's policies of credit in the 90's set the stage for this government take-over.

Alas - here we are today... cutting the fat from the rumps of the market - and returning to values that would be reasonable under stable economic growth, stable market growth.

In these times of "less plenty", we have to look at the signs around us, and ask if we really are seeing a depression. In the 70's, unemployment rates were 11%. Today they hover just above 5-6%. In the 30's, through the Great Depression, unemployment rates were in excess of 25%. As unemployment rates rise, we should not worry until the rates hit 10-15%.

We can little claim that we are in a depression when businesses like Circuit City and Best Buy continue to sell entertainment goods and personal communication devices... as long as we continue to operate as consumers, the market will survive.

What we will see is a need for jobs - an increase in the need to manufacture some goods of our own. Perhaps we will see the market bring a return to small town America, where mom and pop shops are preferred to Wal-Mart's "China Discount" Store. Who can be certain what direction we will decide to pursue.

Only one thing is for certain - some people are losing their shirts today. Those people need to pull themselves up from the bootstraps and decide not to be victims. The economy is sound - the basis of America is sound - we are just seeing a correction from a life of excess to a life of comfortable stability. Perhaps this is a good time to get to know your family again. Have dinner with them tonight, around the table. Turn off the TV. Remember what it is that makes America strong.

If you are having trouble at the end of the month, I hear you can give Obama a dollar in taxes and he will give you back some "change"...