20 Years of Bush/Clinton - Has it Killed the Party Establishments?

Iowa is still fresh on the minds of everyone this morning, and there are certainly blogs and news articles by the millions with their spins and analysis. I have seen few articles discussing the end of the Dynasty Era of the White House... which was the clear message coming out of Iowa last night.

What do I mean by the end of the era? The Bush and Clinton families have had a stranglehold on the White house for the last 20 years... that is right, 20 YEARS! In that time a generation has been raised, and has watched the increasing divide in this country... a divide created by the establishment set up by these two dynasty families... two families duking it out for two decades on the public stage.

But blowing into the arena, last night, was a strange new wind... a wind that carried a message that politics is no longer business as usual. The people are showing up in droves, and demanding the power back from the establishments... You know, the powers endowed by their Creator... their inalienable rights...

I think what we are bearing witness to is a Revolution... not of the Ron Paul variety, but in that direction. Where the people have the power, nut just in name, but in representation.

And the most important aspect of the change is the message in which it is wrapped. Both winners last night in Iowa won on a message of Hope. They both delivered a message of inspiration and REAL change (not the kind of change where Madeline Albright is standing behind you, ensuring that the "change" is in name only). Both candidates rallied the people, not solely by identity politics, but by innovative ideas delivered in a POSITIVE way.

And for the first time in my lifetime, assuming that the nominees were selected last night, we may have a presidential election where the establishments are not pitted one against the other, but two candidates are running FOR their beliefs... and FINALLY, an election will occur where we are voting in support of our candidate, instead of voting AGAINST the other candidate.

What is more inspiring are the victory speeches from last night. Imagine how uplifting this election would be, political ideals aside, if these were the messages being carried on the march to the White House:





Political elites be damned... This is the beginning of something new... I don't know what it is yet, but it smells like populist driven freedom! The likes of which will be discussed for years to come!

Huckabee Likely Ends Romney's Run, in Iowa

Love him or not, Mike Huckabee was handed a clear and decisive win tonight in the Iowa caucus, and the voters likely handed Romney his return trip tickets.

Mike Huckabee was outspent 15-1 in Iowa by Mitt Romney, but commanded the Caucus with nothing more than grassroots organization... And he did not eek out a win, it was (at 85% reporting) nearly a ten point lead. The people of Iowa want a change in the Republican Party!

What kind of a change are they looking for? Perhaps the actual embodiment of a Compassionate Conservative... and with compassion, intelligence and articulation... something noticeably missing from our current compassionate conservative.

When Huckabee began his campaign, he was the "also ran with a funny name". Tonight, the inevitability that there is going to be a change in the GOP is clear. Politics for Republicans has changed... we are a party of the people, and we are living in a populist movement where we demand compassion and concern for our fellow man!

But did Huckabee really deal a death blow to Romney. Yes.

Romney not only lost, but lost badly. All the money he has spent on staffers, ads, organization, did not play a role, because the message was not accepted by the voters.

And this will resonate throughout the other states. Had this been closer, and not such a commanding loss, it would not have hurt so badly... but this was a potentially fatal blow.

Now, in the matter of a few short days, the voters of New Hampshire will gather, and likely do it behind John McCain. A Romney loss in NH will leave him with Michigan, where he is currently tied with Mike Huckabee (who now has the Big Mo' on his side - and is being seen as a viable candidate). A poor showing in Michigan, or even a close first or second to Huckabee will be all his campaign can handle. Mike Huckabee has the lead in SC, and is running statistically tied for first in Florida. That is all AFTER the boom, and the inevitable attacks. The Romney loss tonight will not go well in the other states leading up to Super Tuesday... where Rudy and Huckabee are poised to make out well, as well as McCain (pending a win in NH).

Congratulations to Mike Huckabee. And congratulations to the compassionate conservative movement.

Iowa Caucus Predictions

Hat-tip to Ben Degrow for the link.

M.E. Sprengelmeyer of the Rocky Mountain News is hosting a CONTEST to see who can most accurately predict the outcome, and fall-out from the Iowa Caucus. Visit his blog and submit your predictions BEFORE 5PM Central Time to be considered.

Also, I would like to know how my readers think this thing will go, so leave a comment with your predictions. Mine are as follows:

Democrats:

Edwards - 32%
Obama - 29%
Clinton - 23%
Richardson - 8%
Biden - 6%
Kucinich - 1%
Dodd - 1%
Gravel - 0%

*Dodd and Gravel will drop race

Republicans:

Huckabee - 32%
Romney - 28%
McCain - 15% (Thompson supporters will jump over)
Paul - 13%
Thompson - 8% (his announcement to drop hurt him) *note, Thompson camp is currently denying this announcement
Giuliani - 4%

*Thompson to drop race

Round One: Iowa Caucus, Thompson to Drop Bid, Huckabee Expected to Win Big

The day has finally arrived... January 3rd, 2008. The Iowa Caucus. Perhaps the biggest day in the 2008 Presidential elections since the Straw Poll in Ames 5 long months ago.

Those of us who have been living and breathing this stuff since before then are more than ecstatic! Oh... if only I could take a peak at the headlines of tomorrow! The anticipation is killing me more in this one day than in all days prior!

What is more, even Mitt Romney, the multi-million dollar man, has predicted that he will lose to Huckabee tonight. One thing that we can all agree on is that it has been a tough race, but the political oddity of our time is that a dirt-road candidate with no money or organization has seemingly unseated the established and well funded candidate. If things play out this way tonight, it will be, perhaps, one of the greatest political feats of our time!

But the trouble continues after the Iowa Caucus. Fred Thompson's campaign has made it clear that if Thompson does not finish in the top 2 or 3, Fred Thompson will drop the race. Talk about taking the first exit off the expressway! This guy never really wanted to run in the first place, so this is an easy out. I commend him on inspiring his base! And even though Thompson is said to endorse John McCain when he drops the race, I doubt that all of those votes will actually go to McCain. In fact, 2nd choice for a lot of Fred Thompson voters are spread between Huckabee, McCain, and Romney... so it will be interesting to see how those votes are distributed in NH. What is more interesting is how an announcement like this will influence voters in Iowa on the day of the caucus. Perhaps the Iowa Fred-Heads will throw their 1st choice vote to Huckabee or McCain in Iowa. This definitely shakes things up a bit on Caucus Day!

Depending on how this day turns out, all eyes will be on John McCain, and the endorsement he will receive from Fred Thompson. Will this push him to imminent victory in New Hampshire, despite the Independent vote, or does Thompson's poor support in that state even matter come the Primary? And will this move hurt or help Huckabee and Rudy?

It seems to me that Rudy's hold out for Super Tuesday was a poor tactic. He will have zero momentum going into Feb 5th. If Huckabee wins tonight, and McCain wins NH, Huckabee is sure to take Michigan from Romney, clean up in SC, and use the momentum to defeat Rudy in SC before Super Tuesday. McCain's numbers are close enough in Michigan and SC to give Huckabee a run for his money... but tonight will give momentum to next Tuesday... and after Next Tuesday, it could be a Huckabee / McCain race to the nomination (in either order).

On the Democratic side, If Edwards pulls the upset tonight, he could possibly use this momentum to sweep the states before Super Tuesday. If Clinton doesn't have the momentum on Super Tuesday, Edwards could win out the day. People are looking for a reason not to support Hillary, and just like Rudy's numbers fell with the first sign of hope in another candidate, so too will Clinton.

So the three candidates to watch tonight are Huckabee, McCain, and John Edwards.

Commentary on Polls - Huckabee and McCain Running Mates?

Mike Huckabee brought us the Huckaboom in late November, and provided the media a new candidate to highlight... one that was well spoken, articulate, and about as funny as grandpa when he starts telling 'them old jokes'.

And with the Huckaboom came the Romney attacks. Mitt Romney began releasing attacks via campaign ads, talking mouths such as Hugh Hewitt, glen Beck, and Rush Limbaugh. Huckabee's numbers began to fall... and once they did, Romney's numbers followed suit.

This led to the McCain resurgence... December ended with McCain picking up the pieces of his once 'all for not' campaign, and has begun making some headway. This is mainly fueled by his momentum in New Hampshire, where he has overtaken Romney in the Granite State.

And with the McCain Resurge came the Romney attack ads. Mitt Romney is waging war with anyone who is challenging his war-chest. The problem with this tactic is that Romney is left going for broke. If he does not win the nomination, he will surely not be chosen as a VP because of his less than friendly tactics.

On the other hand, it seems that the Huckaboom dwindling numbers are flowing NOT into Romney's camp, rather into McCain's camp. If you look at the RCP polls, you will notice this trend. Romney has stalled again below 15% nationally. The undecideds and Rudy supporters helped fuel the Huckaboom, and now that folks found an excuse to get off the Rudy Express, they are hesitant to get back on board, opting to throw their support behind one of the other candidates.

What would be interesting for the RCP to show is the candidate "Unknown/Unsure"... That category has dominated / plagued GOP candidates all season long.

What is interesting is that McCain and Huckabee supporters in this stage of the game seem to be one in the same. And with the two campaigns making extra efforts to speak highly of the other throughout the race, one may begin to ask if a Huckabee/McCain ticket is not too far off... or McCain/Huckabee, depending on how this month plays out.

Personally, If Huckabee gets the nomination, it may benefit him to give the nod to a woman or minority leader in the GOP, thus taking away the cat-call of the Clinton supporters of "look at their field of candidates... all white males". Of course I understand that it is NEVER gender or skin color that makes the character of a person... perhaps Hillary should spend some time listening AND hearing the words of MLK Jr.

Then again, if Huck does get the nomination, it may benefit him to pull in the help of someone who has a LOT of experience and is well known.

So a Huckabee / McCain ticket would put up one hell of a fight! Though I can already foresee another fight with them on immigration... but no-one is perfect!

Thoughts?

Comments Make the Blogging World Go 'Round

Back from vacation, and blogging again! I hope that everyone is well rested from New Years, and ready for the election season to begin!

Surprisingly, I have had no comments on my previous post, relating to how you all think the election cycle will go!?!?

Are there really no opinions out there?

Perhaps a comment from a Ron Pauler who knows something about a potential for Paulers to flood the Iowa Caucuses, giving Paul a surprising top three finish.

Perhaps Fred Thompson bows out after a poor showing in Iowa?

Who hangs on until Super Tuesday, and how do you all see that super election going?

I would love to hear some analysis, or just plain guesses, as to how you all think this month will play out!

Don't be shy! Comments make the blogging world go 'round!

Last Debate before Iowa Caucus - Today 2ET

Watch it live here: DEBATE