Bill Ritter, CO Gov State of the State: CO needs higher taxes, Renewable Energy, and more

Gov. Bill Ritter's State of the State address - quasi Live Blog - my thoughts about what I have heard thus far...

The Gov. is dead wrong on Referendum C - the suspension of TABOR. While the Governor is speaking of the need to ensure a quick economic recovery, he is also proclaiming that the way to economic stability is a higher tax rate... this mindset is sure to create a more stagnant economy, as taxpayers are squeezed for every last penny available - and are less likely to stimulate the consumer market, leading to lay-offs etc... the cycle continues... Higher taxes and more government are never the answer.

Ritter is right on when it comes to Renewable Energy. Though the higher regulations may be more costly to the construction industry - in ensuring that all new homes are solar compatible - it is an investment in the future for Colorado's independent energy infrastructure. The best way to ensure this infrastructure has minimal impact to the industry, tax incentives must be mandatory.

Ritter is right on the expansion of clean Natural Gas exploration - so long as his environmental protection programs do not entirely debilitate the ability for NG extraction.

Ritter is on the mark for Dual Enrollment. In Washington State, where I come from, there is a program called "Running Start", where Juniors and Seniors can attend local community colleges, earning college credit, and graduating High School with an Associates Degree. Such a program cuts cost for University, and entices students to achieve a higher standard in education - increasing the likelihood of pursuing Masters Degrees. This program will be a benefit to the Colorado workforce.

The Governor is wrong about climate change - pollution and lack of conservation is one thing... but "climate change" is an oxymoron... the climate is always changing... we do not have impact on speeding or slowing change... only the pollution, quality of life/health, etc... it should be our goal to build industry that is clean for purposes of a cleaner environment - but global warming is not a tool to beat us over the heads...

Partisanship is now under attack - after 8 years of Democrats attacking Republicans under a Bush administration, we are now being asked to fall in line behind Democratic leadership without partisan questions or concerns... Perhaps what Ritter fails to understand is that partisan lines are usually drawn along economic and social ideals... Higher taxes v. lower taxes, Bigger Government v. Smaller Government, Social Change v. Social Conservatism... These are partisan issues - and when the opposition is simply wrong, it is the responsibility of opposition to state these facts.

32 minutes later - a record setting and generally somber address... a sign of the times - uncertainty and introspection. Welcome to the change! Be sure to comment on your thoughts of the true state of the state (or the state of the union - for those readers out of Colorado)

McCain/Palin - Eeking Out Victory in '08?

After watching the lack-luster Presidential Debate last night, and reading the headlines over the past few days regarding presidential politics, I am willing to hedge my bets. John McCain and Sarah Palin will win the electoral vote by a spread of 10 points - 274 to 264, Colorado being the deciding vote and leaning McCain by less than 10,000 votes.

I am willing to predict that Obama/Biden pick up huge victories in NY and California, giving them a 2 million vote spread in the popular vote - bringing about the same arguments we saw after 2000, where Gore won the popular vote and Bush won the electoral vote, sparking disputes whether the electoral vote is representative of the will of the people.

In fact, the electoral vote is what keeps this country a Republic - and saves us from a mob-ruled Democracy in the Federal Government.

Barack Obama is going to have a tough race over the next few weeks. There is finally some more in depth reporting regarding his questionable associations, his economic policy, and his record. Obama's headlines this week include ACORN voter registration fraud on the order of tens of thousands in battleground states, Breaking his promise to his wife regarding smoking, Democrat tactics (including hacking e-mail accounts) in intimidating supporters of McCain and Undecided Voters... Dissenters of Barack Obama are going to spend the next few weeks ripping the Junior Senator apart, and it will be enough to swing the undecided voters in the traditionally red states back in to the McCain/palin camp.

McCain will take Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina by about 5%.
McCain will take Ohio and Colorado by 2%.

It will be tight, but the negative message about Obama is only going to be muted by Obama pumping tens of millions into counter ads attempting to repair his image - money that has been questionably raised - breaking numerous federal election laws... which will be made well known.

The upside is that this will all be over in a few weeks, and we will see the uneasiness in the markets settle down a bit, and the country will begin to move forward in one direction or the other.

Under Obama, we can be sure that the markets will hit about 8000 as investors pull out their money to avoid the "threshold of wealth" in the sights of Obama's "fairness tax". Small business and large business alike will be motivated to hide funds or under-perform to avoid the higher taxes. There will be a motivation for restraining business growth, whcih will lead to the elimination of actual economic growth. Jobs will disappear, unless the Federal Government creates a jobs program for the Green Energy "industry" which will actually be the Green Energy Administration - and jobs will be under the Federal Government Payroll.

Under McCain, there is at least some hope for allowing the American people the opportunity to fix their situation as part of a reprise of personal responsibility in spending, health, and energy. There will be tax breaks for all, spending reductions across the board, and an end to Bush's Big Government Boom! There is some hope with McCain's policy of ousting corruption in lending, lobbying, and leadership that the government will shrink, taxes will stay low, and local governments will feel the pressure to take over where the federal government has intruded on their authority.

There will be no unity in 2008. If McCain wins, the angered and trained Obamanites will partake in the practice of civil disobedience. Leftist Fascism will be at an all time high through Code Pink, ACORN, and Move-On groups trying to quiet the conservatives/Republicans from conducting a clean-up operation in our government. It will be no better from the left than it is now, under Bush - because those on the left HATE anyone who disagrees with them. If Obama wins, there will be tactics from the right to stall any of his policies from becoming law. There will be a massive failure of the government to operate under these extreme bills and regulations (which is why the congressional and Senate races are more important than the Presidential race).

Either way, we are at a societal crossroads in America. The left has become so left that socialist/communist would be a compliment to them. The right has been abandoned for the middle-left, and those who remain on the right are radically outside of common thinking, even if they are spot on classically for American Politics.

Assuming I am right, and McCain/Palin wins, there is hope that the future of the country will begin it's pendulum swing back to the center, giving hope for true reform in government towards a smaller, less authoritarian "master" federal government.

Assuming I am wrong and this nation continues left, there could be a collapse of the Union under the pressure of the overbearing federal government - leading to possible civil war, or in the least a new form of a confederation between states or regions. What happens next in America is anyone's guess... but as it was once said: Keep your powder dry. Save your resources and be prepared for anything, because uncertainty is staring us in the face!

Schaffer v Udall - Watching Paint Dry

Throughout Douglas County, Republicans have been motivated to participate in party events, volunteer activities, and get-out-the-vote efforts after the announcement of Sarah Palin as the VP pick on John McCain's Reform GOP ticket. From the lips of event organizers - "Take a McCain yard sign - and take two Bob Schaffer signs!"

As excited as everyone in Colorado is about the Presidential race, there seems to be a race that people really seem to not care about in the slightest - Schaffer (R) v. Udall (D).

Polls are showing a common trend that the two candidates are within the margin of error of one another: Udall 41%, Schaffer 38% - This is great news for the Schaffer campaign, as their goal seems to be to stay within the margin of error while Republicans are at a general poll disadvantage of ~6% on average in generic polling.

Unfortunately, what is not being reported, or largely discussed, is that 20% of Colorado voters are UNDECIDED in this Senate race.

This is a failure on the part of BOTH campaigns - who continue to sling mud rather than make a case for their candidate.

At event after event, party leadership continues to push Schaffer on Republicans - however, Schaffer himself seems to be less than enthusiastic about the race, or targeting the additional 20% of undecided voters. Recently, at the State Party Central Committee, members were attempting to provide some suggestions for answering attacks that may be turning off potential Schaffer voters - to which Schaffer gave a "that's not in our campaign strategy" answer... even though the answer he gave would make a great commercial advertisement introducing him as a standard businessman, middle-class American who is looking to implement Core Conservative Values in the US Senate. I guess that message is not getting out, and not in their strategy. Unfortunately, their strategy doesn't seem to be very effective!

The result - Perhaps the least interesting yet most important senate race in the West.

With 20 days left until mail-in ballots drop, it is impossible to call this race. There has been no major move to garner the support of the 20% undecided by either campaign, and no move to re-introduce the candidates to the people. It is Core GOP v Core Dem - with the independent bystanders less than attentive or engaged.

If these two candidates can't bridge this gap, I have to wonder about their ability to lead Colorado in the Senate, and I have to question their staying power in Colorado politics.

Swing States: Swinging for McCain/Palin!

Rasmussen/Fox polls in key swing states shows the change in momentum between the two presidential campaigns. The poll indicated that McCain closed the gap on 3 point Obama Lead, to come out ahead by 2% - a 5 point swing toward the McCain campaign in the state of Colorado.

Real Clear Politics also shows that the PPP (D) poll, favoring Obama by 4 points now favors Obama by only 1 point in Colorado - well within the margin of error of that poll.

Obama's campaign is losing steam in many key swing states - most notably Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes. If McCain can swing Pennsylvania, Obama will be unable to catch him in the electoral count. Taking a look at the breakdown in Pennsylvania, Obama is holding the core Democrat vote, but losing with unaffiliated voters by 23 points (55% - 32%). What is most notable in this state is that McCain is making his gains while Obama is holding steady, indicating (as noted above) that unaffiliated voters are swinging for John McCain and Sarah Palin in the Keystone State.

Another key state in this race, Florida, has moved from the "toss up" category, to the "Leaning McCain" category, indicating a favor for McCain of more than 5% on the average - a great number for McCain!

A look at other swing states shows a trend that should have the Obama campaign moving into crisis mode.

Minnesota (10) - Obama's 12 point lead dwindles to a tie in the latest polls - Obama lead by 1% on average.

New Mexico (5) - CNN poll indicated Obama's lead post Palin was 13%, now Rasmussen indicates a McCain 2% lead in the state. Unable to determine the average in that state.

Michigan (17) - An Obama 5 point spread has been cut to a 2 point spread for Obama - indicating a McCain surge in that state.

Missouri (11) - The "Show Me" State is showing a liking for McCain/Palin, moving from the toss-up category into McCain's category, indicating 11 electoral votes for the Big Mac and the Cuda.

Washington (11) - Though Obama is still leading this state, McCain is showing a surge in the Evergreen state, while Obama is showing slipping poll numbers. Is Washington going to end up in play in 2008?

The fact of the matter is that, even with the media squarely supporting Obama - and making no secret of it - the Obama campaign is in disarray. The LA Times' Jonah Goldberg suggests that Obama's inexperience is beginning to show, indicating that Obama has never run a successful campaign against a Republican opponent. He also reports that the Obama camp has vowed 4 other times to face off and fight dirty against McCain, but come up short and with the same message that is not working: McCain is too close to Bush - making him McSame. This message is a good talking point for Democrat Core voters, but it is not catching on with Independent and unaffiliated voters. Why?

Lieberman's endorsement indicates that McCain is appealing to independent voters, and continually stumps that McCain stood up against Bush on issues, like the surge.

The Palin pick indicates that McCain is ready to embark on a reform conquest in Washington, picking the most popular Governor in the US, who is a known outsider and reformer. The attacks on Palin by the media and the left (I repeat myself) have backfired, showing significant support for the Alaskan Governor - indicating that the media is not only in Obama's camp, but out of touch with the voters.

If the 2008 Republican Primary taught us anything, it is that McCain is a strong finisher, bringing out the big guns when it matters. He has done that with the Palin pick, and he is doing that with the direct push towards Obama's inexperience.

If the McCain Palin bump is over, like the MSM reported yesterday, it is definitely not a burst bubble, but a new plateau. The Obama campaign, however, continues to plummet in national and state polls. With 49 days left to go, anything can happen - but the outlook is not so good for Obama.

269-269 Electoral Tie - Civics 101 or 440?

Colorado and New Hampshire are absolute MUST WINS for McCain/Palin, else we find ourselves in a constitutional crisis where the House of Reps would be responsible to select the President of these United States, and under the 12th Amendment, the Senate would select the Vice President.
Let's start this discussion by looking at the electoral map. Based on the most recent state-by-state polls, three states previously won by Bush may be leaning towards Obama - Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. One state won by Kerry in 2004 may be leaning towards McCain - New Hampshire. If this is the case, there is no majority winner in the electoral college vote. Each party will receive only 269 votes, and as such, no President will be named due to the outcome of the election.

The 12th Amendment of the Constitution states that in the case of no majority in the electoral college, the vote for President goes to the House of Representatives, each state receiving only one vote, and similarly a separate vote will be cast for the Vice-Presidency. This means that the party tickets could be broken up, and the representatives will select the party leadership.

What my research has found is that it would not be the current Congress who casts the votes - rather the newly elected Congress. This would potentially give Obama an advantage, as the representatives of each state will have to work together to cast a vote for the state - a heavy loss in Congressional seats by Republicans would ensure that a vote favors the Democrats (could be Obama, could be another compromise Democrat, like Hillary).

Unfortunately, if a state delegation is tied, the votes from that state are uncounted. Below is a map of the 2006 election results, giving an example of which states would be in favor of which candidate, assuming no seats are lost to either party. Unfortunately, it is only a guide, as the house moved seats from some states to Western states growing in population.

If everyone in the House kept their seat, and neither party gained a single seat, Democrats would win: Democrats 28, Republicans 21, Tie 2. Obama wins, 28 votes to 21 (total is 51 because Washington, D.C. is counted as state for presidential elections).

Fortunately, the likelihood of another 2006 style Republican defeat is unlikely. The most important point to note is that Republicans must win in key states, where a vote would come down to one vote or a tie - turning the votes in favor of the Republican Candidates.

Stepping back from this scenario, it is dangerously clear that two states are in play for 2008 at this time: New Hampshire (where current polling gives Obama a 0.3% lead) and Colorado (where current polling gives Obama a 1.0% lead). If New Hampshire follows the suit of the Northeast, electing Democrats, and Colorado is pulled back into the traditional role of voting for Republicans, the crisis is averted, and McCain/Palin wins the election.

Should Colorado and New Hampshire both fall in favor of Obama, Obama wins at 273 electoral votes.

It is evidently clear that Colorado is the key state to both campaigns. The next President of the United States is going to have to set up a condo in Colorado... they can't afford not to!

CO - CD6: Where were the votes?

With 100% of precincts reporting in Douglas County, the results of CD-6 are clear - voters did not turn out! Douglas County is home to about 61,000 registered Republican voters - all of whom should have been well informed that August 12th was an election day (else we in the county party are not doing our job). Yet the results of Douglas County, shown on the County Clerk and Recorder's website, indicates that the actual voter turnout was closer to 25,000 Republicans. That is an embarrassing 40% voter turnout by Republicans in my county.


It would not be so embarrassing, considering that usual voter turnout county wide is no more than 22,000 (R and D), if voters better understood that in this area Republican Primary races are the general election. What is even worse is that 53,000 mail-in ballots were sent out, and total voter turnout in the county was under 35,000. Assuming all votes were mail-in, there is a 20,000 vote gap in Douglas County. I voted in a booth yesterday morning, so we can most likely assume that a majority of mail-in ballots (paid for by taxpayer dollars) ended up untouched on the kitchen counter, or worse, in the trash.

What is the source of complacency in American Voting? Now that Americans have the right to vote, why do 60-70% of us choose not to vote? Is there a sense of non-urgency that surrounds primary elections?

This also begs a few more questions:

1. Do we want everyone voting?
2. What is the deal with the Assembly Candidates?

To answer the first question, I simply state thusly: Ideals do not win elections, votes do. This means that he who gets the votes gets the victory. So it is up to the candidates to inspire voters to the polls - be it by leadership, vision, or even promises of handing out money from the treasury of private individuals and corporations (via windfall profit taxes). It is the responsibility of the voter to educate themselves, so they are making educated decisions at the voting booth (or on the absentee ballot). So though everyone should be voting, perhaps it is better that those uninformed are not taking part in these freedoms. However, this brings me back to the complacency argument - what drives 60-70% of the US to not care enough to arm themselves with education and use their knowledge to vote?

Secondly, I had discussed this in July - whether or not the Colorado Assembly process was worth the investment. In CD-6, two candidates petitioned onto the primary ballot, while three went through the assembly process (one did not make the 10% required to petition on to the Primary ballot from the Assembly). The two assembly candidates, Ted Harvey and Steve Ward, put in a large amount of effort with the delegates, whipping up a lot of support during the assembly time frame - but neither inspired beyond the assembly - leaving the CD6 seat, yet again, taken by a petition candidate (Tancredo was also a petition candidate). The county party invests a large amount of money into the assembly process to nominate a candidate that the party leadership (including delegates and district/precinct captains) should rally behind... however, there is a trend that the CD6 assembly is not in tune with the CD6 voters.

Should the county partys consider refusing to fund the assembly, in favor of an all petition primary for higher level offices? Absolutely - especially if this is a trend that is going to continue.

I digress. The point at hand is that the primary election has come and gone, our party nominees have been selected, and it is now our goal to turn out the Republican vote on November 4th... and turn out the Democratic vote on November 5th :)

Mark Udall's Problem - People Noticed Him

Republican candidate for Colorado Senate, Bob Schaffer, is closing the gap on ultra-liberal Mark Udall, says the latest Rasmussen Poll.

Mark Udall had spent time, money, and man-power to jump out to an early lead in the Centennial State Senate Race, airing commercials allowing him to get name recognition...unfortunately for Mark Udall, once people know you, they want to know about you!

Mark Udall had a very poor showing in the televised Schaffer v. Udall debate, held in Republican Strong Douglas County. Regardless of the spin that the Udall campaign attempted to put on the debate, the voters of Colorado who took notice of the debate saw each candidate for who they were and what they truly stood for.

Bob Schaffer revealed to the viewers the reason that we were in Iraq... a pro-invasion bill that excited the conservatives and made the liberals uneasy - then noted that it was penned by the Liberal candidate, Mark Udall. The body language of Mark Udall screamed defeat. And the voters noticed.

As the race continues, Mark Udall is going to be plagued by an electorate that is being made more aware of what the implementation of his type of policies would really mean for America. He is going to have to deal with the media fall-out from the Democratic National Convention, and more importantly he is going to have to explain to the Colorado Voters how a Colorado Democrat differs from a San Francisco Democrat, hoping that they buy that load and ignore the fact that in D.C. they are both working towards the same ends. Now that the campaigns are in full swing, Mark Udall is quickly realizing that he is going to have an uphill battle in pulling the wool over the eyes of the voters in Colorado.

My Caucus

We had expected 30 people to attend our precinct's caucus... 70 voting members arrived. This was a logistical nightmare, and an embarrassment as a party officer.

Our saving grace was the ability for the party leaders on sight to organize, move to a larger space, and conduct the meeting in an ordorly fashion. The GOP did not make any friends in our area tonight.

The good news is that the Democrats in the area were also overwhelmed, and were equally unprepared for the large number of voters. So we are not alone.

My precinct voted 47 votes for Romney, 12 for McCain, 10 for Huckabee, 1 for Tancredo.

I was able to have a voter take pictures, which he will be sending my way, and I will gladly share.

It was a motivated base of Republicans at it's finest! The party may be looking for common ground, but the democratic process, and the will of the people, is strong!

In My Back Yard...

Yesterday, a coal train overturned dumping 25 cars, each carrying 150 tons of coal... all right down the road from my home. Just after the coal train derailed, an RTD light rail commuter train collided with the wreckage. Luckily no-one was hurt!

But there is a more serious concern here: 25 cars of Coal, each with 150 tons... That is 2750 tons, or 5.5 million pounds of coal!

And somewhere this Christmas, a LOT of naughty kids will have empty stockings!

Rudy, Huckabee beat Clinton; Romeny loses to Clinton in Colorado

Rasmussen Reports conducted a survey in Colorado at the end of November, gathering data on head to head match-ups. The match-ups were related to the Senate race between Schaffer and Udall, as well as head to head presidential preferences in a Rudy/Clinton, Huckabee/Clinton, Romney/Clinton, McCain Clinton match-up.

The results:

Schaffer leads Udall in the senate race, 42% to 41%.

Rudy Beats Hillary: 44% - 40%
McCain Beats Clinton: 44% - 40%
Huckabee Beats Clinton: 42% - 41%
Romney Loses to Clinton: 40% - 43%

Remember, it all comes down to picking up electoral votes in the general election. Who is REALLY electable? Look at which states they stand to lose or gain from the 2004 electoral map.

From Colorado's standpoint, Rudy, McCain, and Huckabee stand to hold Colorado, while Romney would deliver Colorado to Clinton.

If there are any more state head-to-heads, please let me know. I would like to build an electoral map based off these head to head match-ups.

Cheers!

Bill Ritter v. Global Warming... shame on us?

Colorado Governor, Bill Ritter, has laid out a plan to clean up the air in Colorado. He is attacking Greenhouse Gasses as a new member of the Crusade against "Global Warming".

I am a vocal advocate for environmental conservation, reusable energy, and moral obligations to maintaining resources... but Ritter's motivation seems to be influenced by the "Global Warming" band wagon.

I continue to place "global warming" in quotes because the "science" behind mans involvement in "global climate change" is shaky at best. There are several scientists who supported the theory at it's early conception, but after further review had failed to see any conclusive evidence that "global warming" is being propelled by human intervention.



Having reviewed Ritter's proposal, I would support a number of the ideas... increased personal responsibility, increased focus on alternative energy, and education of the populous on the perils of being poor environmental stewards... however, his plan of education and reduced carbon emissions have a central focus of "Global Warming"...

The debate about environmental conservation, energy independence, and clean air are being hampered by the debate over "global warming"... and to throw in an education plan that specifically teaches about the human cause of "global warming", well, for skeptics like myself, that is where we have to draw the line.

There should be a moral obligation to be good stewards of our environment, passed on by our families and communities... We should strive for alternative energy in a quest to further liberate ourselves from reliance on foreign oils and from reliance on big power industries... we should want to clean the air not because "global warming" threatens to flood our cities and destroy our future, but because we owe it to ourselves to live healthier lives under clean, clear skies.

Ritter's sweeping plan is an extension of the liberal agenda on "global warming", plain and simple.

Instead of working on environmental issues for the sake of moral obligation, the smattering of terms associated with "global warming" in it's focus on human fault are found in abundance in the document.

Though I credit ANY government official willing to champion the cause of energy independence, alternative fuels, and conservation... it all comes down to tact and intent. When you have to use inferred science to force policy, there is something wrong.

You should be able to pose a question to the community:

"Reducing particulate emissions because it will clean up Denver's air, is
it right or wrong?"
"Increasing funding for alternative energy incentives to reduce dependence
on oil, right or wrong?"
"Investing in personal sustainability in the area of energy, right or
wrong?"

Instead, what we get is:

"The world is going to flood, and we are going to be responsible for destroying
the earth for our children and the polar bears. Shame on us!"

So I have to give partial Kudos to Ritter...

But I also have to scold the Republicans for not effectively taking up the cause, and for allowing the liberals agenda to dominate, yet again, another important issue.

Republicans, remember, personal freedom and free market does not give a license to abuse the resources, or take without giving something back. With personal freedom comes moral obligations.

Do what's right.

Heartbreak and Chaos in the Rocky Mountains

The Colorado Rockies... the fluke that brought hope and heart-ache to the Mile-High city... After an amazing streak to come from 4 1/2 games back in the wildcard, going 21 of 22 to make it to the world series, the Rockies fell to the baseball Juggernaut called the Boston Red Sox.

For better or for worse, I saw a football city become a baseball town overnight, and I loved every minute of it. Originally from Seattle, which is a baseball town indeed, it was odd to see a half filled stadium and fans that did not know how to cheer... enter the winning streak, and viola! It was like being in baseball heaven...

But baseball comes with high AND low points... and getting swept in the World Series is a very low point!

However, there is hope for the Rockies... the increased name recognition and appeal will bring more money to the ball club, and maybe, just maybe, we can afford some solid pitchers!

And now the chaos... Tom Tancredo has announced that he will not seek re-election in the Colorado House District CD-6... my district. This brings chaos because every state senator in the district is jockeying for this seat, which will leave a number of state senate seats up for grabs... This means that a number of state representatives are looking for that promotion and will surely put their names in the hat, leaving state representative seats in question.

As if 2008 wasn't going to be hectic enough, now Douglas county (and other south of Denver counties) are going to be scrambling to not lose any more seats to the liberal democrats.

Tom Tancredo has been a beacon of conservative hope in Colorado, and his absence will surely be felt nationally and locally.

My hope is that he throws his name in the hat for the Colorado Senate seat and challenges Bob Schaffer in the primaries. This could be the key to beating Mark Udall, and maintaining a 1-1 Democrat/Republican split in the Colorado US Senate. Or perhaps, due to his extended bid for the White House, he will hold off on a Senate run in an attempt to unseat liberal Ken Salazar in 2010. Either way, I say "RUN TOM RUN!"