I'm sitting on pins and needles as we are 15 minutes away from the first results of the night on the East Coast. I know that the GOP is going to win the House. There is only the question of "How Big?"
I predict that the GOP will pick up 68 seats in the House, taking majority and a firm advantage. Pelosi will retire and a special election will come to California.
I predict at least 48 seats held by the GOP in the Senate. 48 would mean that we lost Illinois and West Virginia. I think we have a good shot in Illinois, giving the GOP 49. At the most, the GOP could walk away with 52 Senate seats - meaning that West Virginia, California, and Washington State voted Republican. If I were a betting man, I would say 50/50 split in the Senate - WA goes to Republican Rossi
Let the election night fun begin!
Showing posts with label 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Monday, October 4, 2010
Republicans Will Take The Senate?
Officially one month to go until the midterm elections, the referendum on an inexperienced President led by a radical Congress responsible for this nation's hardships. Both parties are anxiously watching close races around the multitude of states, with bated breath as to the outcome. Look no further - I will reveal my prediction of the outcome.
Real Clear Politics predicts a Democratic Senate, with 51 seats to 49 over Republicans (and Tea Party). The Democrats pick up no seats, but are predicted to hold three states in the northeast and all the western states (including HI). However, watching the polling and the numbers behind the trends, as well as the "stagnation" line of certain incumbents, I predict that at least two western states will oust their incumbent senators: Washington and Nevada.
In Nevada, Harry Reid trailed Sharon Angle considerably until her actual nomination, at which point both candidates surged in the polls, Reid taking the advantage by a slim margin. However there are a few behind the scene tea leaves (Pun Intended) to indicate a Tea Party victory over the incumbent Senate Majority Leader. First, Reid's own son is running for Governor of the state, yet he refuses to campaign using his last name. You cannot make this stuff up! His father is so unpopular that the young Rory Reid is campaigning on a "Vote Rory" message and still trailing by double digits to his Republican Challenger. One could expect the Reid-Rage to stick on election day as voters select neither of the Reids. Secondly, Harry Reid's numbers have yet to break 47 in polling. Any incumbent polling below 50% cannot be sleeping soundly through the night. In fact, Reid's sudden spike in the polls has dropped after the uncertainty surrounding an unknown Tea Party candidate has dissipated, and all current polls show both candidates within the margin of error with one another. Finally, Nevada has a state law allowing voters to cast their vote for "none of the above". This is to Reid's disadvantage, though he originally intended to use it to his advantage. Reid had hoped that Moderates and Republicans unwilling to back a Tea Party candidate would vote "None"... however, with so many undecideds this close to the race, it appears that Reid voters will vote "None" over Reid before GOP voters turn their back on the Tea Party Angle. I predict Angle (R) winning the seat with 49% of the vote, Reid getting 47%, and 4% going to the other 6 candidates or "None".
In Washington State we have hardcore liberal incumbent Patty Murray (D) pushing ahead of Moderate Republican Dino Rossi in recent polls. Murray refuses to debate Rossi who is forcing her to answer to her vote history, and has spent millions on personal character attacks on the former WA State legislator - a common theme when a candidate needs to push the polls. However, Murray's war chest may not be working to her advantage as well as polls would indicate. Murray's recent surge in the polls has fooled Real Clear Politics, but analysis of how the polls were conducted sheds light onto the disparities. Independents are breaking heavily for Rossi, at a rate of more than 55% to 45% Murray, on average. Most polls release their voter breakdown, and the recent "Pro-Murray" polls would not. However, it would appear that Democrats are being over-sampled in the recent polls... with Rassmussen being the exception. Rasmussen has consistently shown this race to be neck in neck, with Murray hard pressed to reach the crucial 50% mark, which is saving grace in WA State. In this state there is a restriction on candidates who can make the ballot. It is a 'top-two' law, allowing only the top two vote recipients from the primary to grace the November general election ballot for all races. There are no "none" votes, no third party votes. It will be a direct 100% count between two candidates. I predict that the advantage will go to the challenger by November, and we will see a 50.5% Rossi (R) count to a 49.5% Murray (D) count. In WA state there is a history of close races (closest race in US history was Gregoire over Rossi for Governor in 2004 by 214 votes after the third recount (Rossi was ahead for the first two counts)).
By my prediction, the Republicans will have 51 seats to the Democrat 49 seats in the senate.
*A commentary about the races in the other states:
1. In Florida, Rubio has taken a commanding lead. Unless Democratic underdog Meeks drops the race, Independent challenger and current governor Charlie Crist cannot make up the double digit margin. The Democrats have the seat with a Crist win, and I wonder why they do not ask Meeks to step aside in favor of a huge pick-up in Florida. Stay Tuned.
2. In California, Boxer is still vulnerable, but Fiorina (R) has simply plummeted in the polls. Recent attacks against Meg Whitman (R), who is running for governor, may be hurting the down ticket candidate.
3. Chris Dodd's seat in Connecticut has become a nail biter. The Democratic Blumenthal cannot break 50% in a heavily democratic state, and WWE Mogul McMahonhas considerably closed the gap. I still call this one for the Dems, but McMahon has made this into a race in Democrat safe territory.
**NOTE: this opinion may change and is only the subject of current trends in polling. Any change is due to the sudden political hail mary or major fumble by any candidate in any party.
Real Clear Politics predicts a Democratic Senate, with 51 seats to 49 over Republicans (and Tea Party). The Democrats pick up no seats, but are predicted to hold three states in the northeast and all the western states (including HI). However, watching the polling and the numbers behind the trends, as well as the "stagnation" line of certain incumbents, I predict that at least two western states will oust their incumbent senators: Washington and Nevada.
In Nevada, Harry Reid trailed Sharon Angle considerably until her actual nomination, at which point both candidates surged in the polls, Reid taking the advantage by a slim margin. However there are a few behind the scene tea leaves (Pun Intended) to indicate a Tea Party victory over the incumbent Senate Majority Leader. First, Reid's own son is running for Governor of the state, yet he refuses to campaign using his last name. You cannot make this stuff up! His father is so unpopular that the young Rory Reid is campaigning on a "Vote Rory" message and still trailing by double digits to his Republican Challenger. One could expect the Reid-Rage to stick on election day as voters select neither of the Reids. Secondly, Harry Reid's numbers have yet to break 47 in polling. Any incumbent polling below 50% cannot be sleeping soundly through the night. In fact, Reid's sudden spike in the polls has dropped after the uncertainty surrounding an unknown Tea Party candidate has dissipated, and all current polls show both candidates within the margin of error with one another. Finally, Nevada has a state law allowing voters to cast their vote for "none of the above". This is to Reid's disadvantage, though he originally intended to use it to his advantage. Reid had hoped that Moderates and Republicans unwilling to back a Tea Party candidate would vote "None"... however, with so many undecideds this close to the race, it appears that Reid voters will vote "None" over Reid before GOP voters turn their back on the Tea Party Angle. I predict Angle (R) winning the seat with 49% of the vote, Reid getting 47%, and 4% going to the other 6 candidates or "None".
In Washington State we have hardcore liberal incumbent Patty Murray (D) pushing ahead of Moderate Republican Dino Rossi in recent polls. Murray refuses to debate Rossi who is forcing her to answer to her vote history, and has spent millions on personal character attacks on the former WA State legislator - a common theme when a candidate needs to push the polls. However, Murray's war chest may not be working to her advantage as well as polls would indicate. Murray's recent surge in the polls has fooled Real Clear Politics, but analysis of how the polls were conducted sheds light onto the disparities. Independents are breaking heavily for Rossi, at a rate of more than 55% to 45% Murray, on average. Most polls release their voter breakdown, and the recent "Pro-Murray" polls would not. However, it would appear that Democrats are being over-sampled in the recent polls... with Rassmussen being the exception. Rasmussen has consistently shown this race to be neck in neck, with Murray hard pressed to reach the crucial 50% mark, which is saving grace in WA State. In this state there is a restriction on candidates who can make the ballot. It is a 'top-two' law, allowing only the top two vote recipients from the primary to grace the November general election ballot for all races. There are no "none" votes, no third party votes. It will be a direct 100% count between two candidates. I predict that the advantage will go to the challenger by November, and we will see a 50.5% Rossi (R) count to a 49.5% Murray (D) count. In WA state there is a history of close races (closest race in US history was Gregoire over Rossi for Governor in 2004 by 214 votes after the third recount (Rossi was ahead for the first two counts)).
By my prediction, the Republicans will have 51 seats to the Democrat 49 seats in the senate.
*A commentary about the races in the other states:
1. In Florida, Rubio has taken a commanding lead. Unless Democratic underdog Meeks drops the race, Independent challenger and current governor Charlie Crist cannot make up the double digit margin. The Democrats have the seat with a Crist win, and I wonder why they do not ask Meeks to step aside in favor of a huge pick-up in Florida. Stay Tuned.
2. In California, Boxer is still vulnerable, but Fiorina (R) has simply plummeted in the polls. Recent attacks against Meg Whitman (R), who is running for governor, may be hurting the down ticket candidate.
3. Chris Dodd's seat in Connecticut has become a nail biter. The Democratic Blumenthal cannot break 50% in a heavily democratic state, and WWE Mogul McMahonhas considerably closed the gap. I still call this one for the Dems, but McMahon has made this into a race in Democrat safe territory.
**NOTE: this opinion may change and is only the subject of current trends in polling. Any change is due to the sudden political hail mary or major fumble by any candidate in any party.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Republican Pledge Not Enough
Sixteen years after the ‘Contract with America’, the Republican House Minority provided a renewed ‘Pledge to America’, a throwback promise ahead of an expected majority change in the House of Representatives in November. The Pledge, though addressing some real issues, does not do enough to establish the level of trust and comfort that the Minority leadership was hoping to convey. Instead, the Pledge pays homage to the constitution and the Tea Party overtone without affecting enough change to assure the people that a Republican Majority would act any differently from those majorities of years past.
The Pros:
In the opening pledge, the new governing agenda set forth reads like a collaboration of the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and a smattering of founding documents. The most promising aspect of this opening statement was the direct focus on the long forgotten tenth amendment – promising that all powers not specifically delegated to the United States by the Constitution will be reserved for the states and the people. This last amendment in the Bill of Rights is the single most important statement in our founding contract – that the power of this government lay with the people. Remembering this is what the 2010 election cycle has become about.
The Pledge goes on to detail a series of plans outlining the new GOP agenda. Their series of plans include the standard Republican talking points of cutting taxes, reining in spending, and shrinking government. The highlights in these plans include a new rule requiring a “citation of constitutional authority” for every bill presented on the floor of the House. It baffles my mind that such a rule is necessary, but in the bloated government environment in which we find ourselves, it is a much needed relief. Further parts of the Pledge echo the promises made in the ’94 Contract, ensuring transparency and openness in government proceedings.
The Cons:
The Pledge fell short of any real agenda changing qualities, often treating the current political symptom while ignoring the underlying ailment. One great example is the heralded spending reduction which promises a savings of a few hundred billion by returning to Bush era spending practices. I say we need to go further back. I say we need to cut more. Why not aim to cut the federal spending by half, proposing true fiscal restraint. In fact, a federal budget of $2 Trillion is more than sufficient when spending, pork, and subsidies are cut back extremely.
The Pledge addressed unfunded liabilities of Social Security, but stopped short of any proposal to restore and fully fund the Social Security account while restricting ANY government access to the account for general or emergency funding.
The Pledge proposed small business tax incentives without any mention of a plan to remove ALL tax loopholes by implementing a fair and uniform Flat Tax system.
The Pledge promises federal enforcement of border and immigration issues, but fails to target US corporations recruiting for workers in Mexico and hiring foreigners without work visas.
There is much good to be read in the 21 pages of the Republican Pledge to America. It sets a tone for discussion and emphasizes that the GOP is in the game, and more than a party of ‘No’. The Pledge is not enough, though, to do what it was intended to do. It is not enough to set a new agenda. It is not enough to distance the GOP from the spending Republicans of the past. It is not enough to make me believe that the GOP is serious about turning the power of the country back over to the people and the states of this union.
The Pros:
In the opening pledge, the new governing agenda set forth reads like a collaboration of the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and a smattering of founding documents. The most promising aspect of this opening statement was the direct focus on the long forgotten tenth amendment – promising that all powers not specifically delegated to the United States by the Constitution will be reserved for the states and the people. This last amendment in the Bill of Rights is the single most important statement in our founding contract – that the power of this government lay with the people. Remembering this is what the 2010 election cycle has become about.
The Pledge goes on to detail a series of plans outlining the new GOP agenda. Their series of plans include the standard Republican talking points of cutting taxes, reining in spending, and shrinking government. The highlights in these plans include a new rule requiring a “citation of constitutional authority” for every bill presented on the floor of the House. It baffles my mind that such a rule is necessary, but in the bloated government environment in which we find ourselves, it is a much needed relief. Further parts of the Pledge echo the promises made in the ’94 Contract, ensuring transparency and openness in government proceedings.
The Cons:
The Pledge fell short of any real agenda changing qualities, often treating the current political symptom while ignoring the underlying ailment. One great example is the heralded spending reduction which promises a savings of a few hundred billion by returning to Bush era spending practices. I say we need to go further back. I say we need to cut more. Why not aim to cut the federal spending by half, proposing true fiscal restraint. In fact, a federal budget of $2 Trillion is more than sufficient when spending, pork, and subsidies are cut back extremely.
The Pledge addressed unfunded liabilities of Social Security, but stopped short of any proposal to restore and fully fund the Social Security account while restricting ANY government access to the account for general or emergency funding.
The Pledge proposed small business tax incentives without any mention of a plan to remove ALL tax loopholes by implementing a fair and uniform Flat Tax system.
The Pledge promises federal enforcement of border and immigration issues, but fails to target US corporations recruiting for workers in Mexico and hiring foreigners without work visas.
There is much good to be read in the 21 pages of the Republican Pledge to America. It sets a tone for discussion and emphasizes that the GOP is in the game, and more than a party of ‘No’. The Pledge is not enough, though, to do what it was intended to do. It is not enough to set a new agenda. It is not enough to distance the GOP from the spending Republicans of the past. It is not enough to make me believe that the GOP is serious about turning the power of the country back over to the people and the states of this union.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Election Polls, National Pulse
With five and a half weeks remaining before the Constitutional Resurgence, speculation and polling is as active for an off year as I have ever seen - perhaps because defeat after defeat have been dealt to the Democratic White House in a wave of special elections and Primary upheavals. If the Clinton victory in '92 forced the establishments to re-write the book, and the 2000 presidential election caused them to tear a few pages from it, then the 2010 political season is sure to have political scientists wondering how they could have been so wrong on so many levels. How is it, they will wonder, that a country who gave a blank check to a clearly and openly socialist establishment suddenly finds itself so diametrically opposed to the media announced mandate of 2008?
Let's look to the people for answers.
Obama is polling at ~45% with a solid 50% disapproval rating (45% of those, according to Rasmussen "Strongly Disapprove" - compared to 26% who "strongly approve"). The great emancipator from the evils of the Bush and Clinton empires has proven to be what opponents recognized him as during the primary and general elections in 2008. He has proven that he does not and cannot associate or empathize with the American People. He is an ideologue, so blinded by his agenda that he refuses to associate with the people - tending, instead, to lecture and talk at the people. He no longer inspires Hope, but for a small minority... and even for them, hope has begun to fade. The people are beginning to awaken... it seems he is bringing change to America - change toward a constitutional class of leaders, and an educated and active constitutional electorate.
The Tea Party has already mounted their attack against the GOP and sufficiently dealt them a death blow, forcing the leadership to hearken back to the days of '94, when the party promised change in a Contract with America. That contract was breached as soon as the GOP had control, and a new age of pork spending, corruption, and continued abuse of the constitution once again became the norm in DC for both parties. However, the Congress will have a strong delegation of Tea Party officials. The Senate will have an unusually high representation of Tea Party officials. A few constitutionalists will even preside over state houses for the next four years. This places the GOP in a bind. They fought hard for establishment candidates, and come out denouncing Tea Party victors, only to have to lick their wounds publicly the following morning. The GOP could forever be crippled in 2010 if there is a Tea Party fissure, and the conservative block caucuses as a legitimately strong third party - especially because current leadership would abandon ship for a fresh caucus with no excess baggage. If the GOP does not respond correctly, the Republican Party may find themselves an annotation in the pages of history, alongside the Whigs and the Bull Moose parties.
And finally, who will hold the seats of power for the United States come November? Polling tells us that state after state is moving into the 'toss up' region for the US Senate. Long time incumbents, like Russ Feingold (D - WI), are now trailing conservative candidates. Feingold is currently expected to lose his state, polling double digits behind the GOP. Real Clear Politics' election map indicates a 52-48 Democrat margin on November 3rd. I remain skeptical that Boxer (D) in California, Maj. Ldr Reid (D) of Nevada, and Patty Murray (D) of WA can hold on to their narrow margins. At best, the senate will remain in Democrat control by way ONLY of the Biden vote. I predict a 50-50 senate, with as many as eight NEW Tea Party senators, making way for a strong 20-25% party control by hardcore constitutionalist senators. That is enough fresh leadership to make a plan, not for a new contract with America, but to restore America's ORIGINAL contract - the Constitution... and pledge to hold the Congress and the Executive within the bounds set forth by the People.
Let's look to the people for answers.
Obama is polling at ~45% with a solid 50% disapproval rating (45% of those, according to Rasmussen "Strongly Disapprove" - compared to 26% who "strongly approve"). The great emancipator from the evils of the Bush and Clinton empires has proven to be what opponents recognized him as during the primary and general elections in 2008. He has proven that he does not and cannot associate or empathize with the American People. He is an ideologue, so blinded by his agenda that he refuses to associate with the people - tending, instead, to lecture and talk at the people. He no longer inspires Hope, but for a small minority... and even for them, hope has begun to fade. The people are beginning to awaken... it seems he is bringing change to America - change toward a constitutional class of leaders, and an educated and active constitutional electorate.
The Tea Party has already mounted their attack against the GOP and sufficiently dealt them a death blow, forcing the leadership to hearken back to the days of '94, when the party promised change in a Contract with America. That contract was breached as soon as the GOP had control, and a new age of pork spending, corruption, and continued abuse of the constitution once again became the norm in DC for both parties. However, the Congress will have a strong delegation of Tea Party officials. The Senate will have an unusually high representation of Tea Party officials. A few constitutionalists will even preside over state houses for the next four years. This places the GOP in a bind. They fought hard for establishment candidates, and come out denouncing Tea Party victors, only to have to lick their wounds publicly the following morning. The GOP could forever be crippled in 2010 if there is a Tea Party fissure, and the conservative block caucuses as a legitimately strong third party - especially because current leadership would abandon ship for a fresh caucus with no excess baggage. If the GOP does not respond correctly, the Republican Party may find themselves an annotation in the pages of history, alongside the Whigs and the Bull Moose parties.
And finally, who will hold the seats of power for the United States come November? Polling tells us that state after state is moving into the 'toss up' region for the US Senate. Long time incumbents, like Russ Feingold (D - WI), are now trailing conservative candidates. Feingold is currently expected to lose his state, polling double digits behind the GOP. Real Clear Politics' election map indicates a 52-48 Democrat margin on November 3rd. I remain skeptical that Boxer (D) in California, Maj. Ldr Reid (D) of Nevada, and Patty Murray (D) of WA can hold on to their narrow margins. At best, the senate will remain in Democrat control by way ONLY of the Biden vote. I predict a 50-50 senate, with as many as eight NEW Tea Party senators, making way for a strong 20-25% party control by hardcore constitutionalist senators. That is enough fresh leadership to make a plan, not for a new contract with America, but to restore America's ORIGINAL contract - the Constitution... and pledge to hold the Congress and the Executive within the bounds set forth by the People.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
It's a Tea Party Year!
Delaware is the latest stomping ground for the Tea Party, where establishment candidate Rep. Castle was handily beaten by Tea Party favorite and political newcomer, O'Donnell. This, as the GOP establishment says, puts the state of Delaware in jeopardy for a very secure senate seat - however, now that the GOP has been proven wrong at the polls, the people of Delaware are going to respond to O'Donnell positively... and the GOP establishment is going to have plenty of crow to eat! RCP has moved Delaware into the "likely Dem" category from "likely GOP" based on old polling, but rest assured that O'Donnell's stock is going to rise tomorrow, and those numbers are going to change!
Across the nation, from Alaska to Delaware, we are seeing establishment candidates fall to the no-name citizen army candidates. We, the people, have mounted a fierce battle, and come November we are going to see a solid core group of Conservative Senators that WILL move the Senate back in line with the constitution.
Joe Miller, Alaska
Ken Buck, Colorado
Sharon Angle, Nevada
Rand Paul, Kentucky
Marco Rubio, Florida
Mike Lee, Utah
Christine O'Donnell, Delaware
This is not a regional flux. The left can not blame this on the rednecks clinging to their guns and bibles in the south. They cannot blame this on the isolated and out of touch separatists in the frozen hills of Alaska. This is a national movement - state by state, election by election, incumbents were felled by their constitutionalist rivals. Called extremists by their foes for drawing a line in the sand and saying, "On behalf of the American People, NO MORE", they have become the generals in the people's army... Not Glenn Beck or Sarah Palin... Nay... those whose necks are on the line, and who are in a position to win, win big, and change the debate in the US Senate.
Even in New Hampshire, as I write this, are we witnessing a HUGE night for the Tea Party, where a Palin-backed candidate is losing to the will of the Tea Party movement, indicating that, in fact, it is not her party (as I stated above), rather the party of the people.
Add the name Ovide Lamontagne from NH to the list above, and with the right campaigning across the board we can add 8 staunch constitutional conservatives to the US Senate, where a few constitutionalists eek out an existence, and you have got a solid 10% of the entire US senate as a hardcore constitutionalist voting block... My eyes are getting moist just thinking about it - it really is beautiful - in my lifetime! (imagine the irony of an American being happy that 10% of the senate is going to follow the constitution!)
With that said, there are a few hard races:
1. Angle (who is now tied with Reid in NV) must win to knock out the Majority Leader of the Senate. She is holding her own this early out, which is a very bad sign for Reid, who's own son has stopped using his last name in his campaign for governor of NV due to bad name recognition. (I love it!)
2. Rubio has a good lead on Independent Charlie Crist in Florida, but Crist is an old dog at the political game. Fortunately for the TP movement, Crist's numbers are beginning to nosedive, and he may have peaked too early for this three man race.
3. Miller in Alaska is plagued by a raging case of the "incumbents" - like syphilis which is supposed to go away with penicillin, the incumbent is supposed to go away after losing the primary. However, his mild rash, Murkowski, is floating every possibility to attempt to get on the ballot and give this race to the Dems.
4. O'Donnell in Delaware was a major victory, a major upset, and a major challenge moving forward into November. Donate $20, now, to her campaign. Call the Delaware GOP and tell them to immediately support and endorse her. She needs the bump to keep the state, and she is the kind of leader the GOP needs in the Tea Party wing.
It's a tea Party night, and it will be a tea Party year. The GOP and America have much to celebrate. The pendulum is swinging toward our constitution!
Across the nation, from Alaska to Delaware, we are seeing establishment candidates fall to the no-name citizen army candidates. We, the people, have mounted a fierce battle, and come November we are going to see a solid core group of Conservative Senators that WILL move the Senate back in line with the constitution.
Joe Miller, Alaska
Ken Buck, Colorado
Sharon Angle, Nevada
Rand Paul, Kentucky
Marco Rubio, Florida
Mike Lee, Utah
Christine O'Donnell, Delaware
This is not a regional flux. The left can not blame this on the rednecks clinging to their guns and bibles in the south. They cannot blame this on the isolated and out of touch separatists in the frozen hills of Alaska. This is a national movement - state by state, election by election, incumbents were felled by their constitutionalist rivals. Called extremists by their foes for drawing a line in the sand and saying, "On behalf of the American People, NO MORE", they have become the generals in the people's army... Not Glenn Beck or Sarah Palin... Nay... those whose necks are on the line, and who are in a position to win, win big, and change the debate in the US Senate.
Even in New Hampshire, as I write this, are we witnessing a HUGE night for the Tea Party, where a Palin-backed candidate is losing to the will of the Tea Party movement, indicating that, in fact, it is not her party (as I stated above), rather the party of the people.
Add the name Ovide Lamontagne from NH to the list above, and with the right campaigning across the board we can add 8 staunch constitutional conservatives to the US Senate, where a few constitutionalists eek out an existence, and you have got a solid 10% of the entire US senate as a hardcore constitutionalist voting block... My eyes are getting moist just thinking about it - it really is beautiful - in my lifetime! (imagine the irony of an American being happy that 10% of the senate is going to follow the constitution!)
With that said, there are a few hard races:
1. Angle (who is now tied with Reid in NV) must win to knock out the Majority Leader of the Senate. She is holding her own this early out, which is a very bad sign for Reid, who's own son has stopped using his last name in his campaign for governor of NV due to bad name recognition. (I love it!)
2. Rubio has a good lead on Independent Charlie Crist in Florida, but Crist is an old dog at the political game. Fortunately for the TP movement, Crist's numbers are beginning to nosedive, and he may have peaked too early for this three man race.
3. Miller in Alaska is plagued by a raging case of the "incumbents" - like syphilis which is supposed to go away with penicillin, the incumbent is supposed to go away after losing the primary. However, his mild rash, Murkowski, is floating every possibility to attempt to get on the ballot and give this race to the Dems.
4. O'Donnell in Delaware was a major victory, a major upset, and a major challenge moving forward into November. Donate $20, now, to her campaign. Call the Delaware GOP and tell them to immediately support and endorse her. She needs the bump to keep the state, and she is the kind of leader the GOP needs in the Tea Party wing.
It's a tea Party night, and it will be a tea Party year. The GOP and America have much to celebrate. The pendulum is swinging toward our constitution!
Thursday, September 9, 2010
On the Ropes
Obama and the Democrats are in trouble, whether they admit it or not. Polling in Washington State now indicates that Republican (moderate) Rossi is going to win in November over liberal Democrat incumbent, Patty Murray. Murray cannot poll over 45%, and is showing horribly in the democratic strong-hold of Seattle's King County. Washington state was supposed to be a safe democrat seat, was moved to a toss-up seat, and is looking more and more like a seat that is leaning republican.
Barbara Boxer is also in trouble. The latest debate between incumbent California Democrat Boxer and Republican challenger Fiorina was nothing more than a Boxer mud-slinging fest, trying to defame the successful HP former executive. Boxer's numbers dropped following the debate putting Fiorina ahead for the first time in that race.
Across the nation, not only are Liberal Democrats losing to moderate Republicans, they are losing in droves to Conservative Libertarian Republicans (Liberty Republicans), such as Joe Miller in Alaska, Marco Rubio in Florida, and Rand Paul in Kentucky. Democrats are losing Governorships to staunch Libertarian Conservatives - and Oregon, the longest consecutive held Democratic Governorship in the US, is bearing witness to a massive GOP win in the polls, and an expected GOP win in Nov.
Recent polling also indicates that the GOP will take over the House of Representatives, removing the giant gavel from Pelosi, and replacing many ultra liberals with some very staunch libertarian conservatives.
The Democrats are on the ropes, taking body punch after body punch. They are bloody, bruised, and about to hit the mat.
Let us hope that with the GOP comes Liberty. Let us hope that with that liberty we fix our borders, free our states from the fed, audit the Federal Reserve, and end corporate strangleholds and government monopolies over food processing, banking, industry, and housing. My prayer is that the GOP of 2010 is one of founding principles, small government, and libertarian principles - Goldwater Republicanism. Even more, my hope is that we do a great job as a majority party so that we can continue the libertarian march through 2012 and fix this mess we are in!
Barbara Boxer is also in trouble. The latest debate between incumbent California Democrat Boxer and Republican challenger Fiorina was nothing more than a Boxer mud-slinging fest, trying to defame the successful HP former executive. Boxer's numbers dropped following the debate putting Fiorina ahead for the first time in that race.
Across the nation, not only are Liberal Democrats losing to moderate Republicans, they are losing in droves to Conservative Libertarian Republicans (Liberty Republicans), such as Joe Miller in Alaska, Marco Rubio in Florida, and Rand Paul in Kentucky. Democrats are losing Governorships to staunch Libertarian Conservatives - and Oregon, the longest consecutive held Democratic Governorship in the US, is bearing witness to a massive GOP win in the polls, and an expected GOP win in Nov.
Recent polling also indicates that the GOP will take over the House of Representatives, removing the giant gavel from Pelosi, and replacing many ultra liberals with some very staunch libertarian conservatives.
The Democrats are on the ropes, taking body punch after body punch. They are bloody, bruised, and about to hit the mat.
Let us hope that with the GOP comes Liberty. Let us hope that with that liberty we fix our borders, free our states from the fed, audit the Federal Reserve, and end corporate strangleholds and government monopolies over food processing, banking, industry, and housing. My prayer is that the GOP of 2010 is one of founding principles, small government, and libertarian principles - Goldwater Republicanism. Even more, my hope is that we do a great job as a majority party so that we can continue the libertarian march through 2012 and fix this mess we are in!
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
WA Primary Results - The Right to Vote versus Voting
Washingtonians have cast their votes, and the results are about what one could expect. The Senate race saw Democrat incumbent Murray pulling in considerably less than the 50% needed for victory in November, Dino Rossi (the establishment backed GOP Candidate) grabbing the majority of the Republican votes, and the Tea Party candidates and "also ran" candidates pulling in about 12% at the highest (Clint Didier). With Washington State's 'top two' primary, Murray and Rossi will be the sole names on the ballot for US Senate in Washington state - the top of the 2010 ticket.
WA State voter turnout for the primary was an embarrassing 26%... Iraqi's are facing mortars and shells in order to get the purple finger at rates upward of 80%... yet the country who is dictating their democracy cannot even find 15 minutes to cast their 'all mail-in' ballot. I think the voters here simply do not care anymore... I polled 4 guys with whom I work, all of whom are vocal political commentators at work - yet two of them failed to vote - one said he simply had no opinion about any candidate.
That being said, Rossi, a long time Republican from the Washington State old hats, a centrist Republican (like Scott Brown) will be leading the conservative charge in WA State. In fact, Tea Party candidates did not fare too well here in the Evergreen state... the reason? Political organizing is dismal in this state - last minute notifications, no political dialogue, no forum for debate... you name it, WA state is the land of apathy, not opportunity - for most. What we are faced with is a minority class of active voters trying to push the rope on the other 75% of the state registered voters.
You can lead a politician to Washington, but you can't stop him from spending, right?
We all have the right to vote, yet we continually see a vast majority of our fellow citizens who refuse to lay claim to that right. I am no political scientist, but my best guess has something to do with the 7 minute attention span, the commercialism of our society, and the absolute distraction in all avenues of our existence. With a constant barrage of advertising, reality TV, and the like, it is no wonder that by the time campaign season comes around we couldn't care less (technically 'they' couldn't care less... I couldn't care more!!!) Why worry about voting once for a Senator, I can text the word 'VOTE' to 64752 as many times as I want for my favorite dancer or singer - standard texting rates apply. We have prioritized the important aspects of our free society right out of our lives... and the result is, well, my monologue from above.
Moving forward, onward to November, it is our duty as the active and thinking branch of the voting citizenry to approach our candidates... Force them into dialogue, press the issues... make sure that they understand that just because everyone else has been scrubbed from the ballot in November does not excuse them from public scrutiny from disenchanted members of their own party. We still have the power to shape the debate. We still have the power to reign in our 'establishment' candidates. We still have a voice, a right, a duty to be an active member of this society, and of this government. We are the FIRST PILLAR of the government... WE THE PEOPLE. So easily we forget...
Let us not forget that 2010 is not simply about a transfer of power between party's... it is about a correction to the wrongs committed against the people of this nation, and the contract between WE and the Govt. 2010, and every election henceforth should be an education on the limited power granted to the government BY the people. It should be a reaffirmation of truth and liberty. It should be the final word of the people... that Liberty will always undo tyranny... That the people do take notice... That we choose to be free...
It is my fear, that 75% of the people will not hear this message.
Liberty is obvious to those who can see it... libertas ad oculos!
WA State voter turnout for the primary was an embarrassing 26%... Iraqi's are facing mortars and shells in order to get the purple finger at rates upward of 80%... yet the country who is dictating their democracy cannot even find 15 minutes to cast their 'all mail-in' ballot. I think the voters here simply do not care anymore... I polled 4 guys with whom I work, all of whom are vocal political commentators at work - yet two of them failed to vote - one said he simply had no opinion about any candidate.
That being said, Rossi, a long time Republican from the Washington State old hats, a centrist Republican (like Scott Brown) will be leading the conservative charge in WA State. In fact, Tea Party candidates did not fare too well here in the Evergreen state... the reason? Political organizing is dismal in this state - last minute notifications, no political dialogue, no forum for debate... you name it, WA state is the land of apathy, not opportunity - for most. What we are faced with is a minority class of active voters trying to push the rope on the other 75% of the state registered voters.
You can lead a politician to Washington, but you can't stop him from spending, right?
We all have the right to vote, yet we continually see a vast majority of our fellow citizens who refuse to lay claim to that right. I am no political scientist, but my best guess has something to do with the 7 minute attention span, the commercialism of our society, and the absolute distraction in all avenues of our existence. With a constant barrage of advertising, reality TV, and the like, it is no wonder that by the time campaign season comes around we couldn't care less (technically 'they' couldn't care less... I couldn't care more!!!) Why worry about voting once for a Senator, I can text the word 'VOTE' to 64752 as many times as I want for my favorite dancer or singer - standard texting rates apply. We have prioritized the important aspects of our free society right out of our lives... and the result is, well, my monologue from above.
Moving forward, onward to November, it is our duty as the active and thinking branch of the voting citizenry to approach our candidates... Force them into dialogue, press the issues... make sure that they understand that just because everyone else has been scrubbed from the ballot in November does not excuse them from public scrutiny from disenchanted members of their own party. We still have the power to shape the debate. We still have the power to reign in our 'establishment' candidates. We still have a voice, a right, a duty to be an active member of this society, and of this government. We are the FIRST PILLAR of the government... WE THE PEOPLE. So easily we forget...
Let us not forget that 2010 is not simply about a transfer of power between party's... it is about a correction to the wrongs committed against the people of this nation, and the contract between WE and the Govt. 2010, and every election henceforth should be an education on the limited power granted to the government BY the people. It should be a reaffirmation of truth and liberty. It should be the final word of the people... that Liberty will always undo tyranny... That the people do take notice... That we choose to be free...
It is my fear, that 75% of the people will not hear this message.
Liberty is obvious to those who can see it... libertas ad oculos!
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The US Identity Crisis
The federal government intends to pass trillion dollar fundamental changes without a vote, and the President is OK with that? What part of 'support and defend the constitution' is so hard to understand?
Meanwhile the census forms arrived yesterday asking me which variety of Hispanic I am... let's just say that there is a box around question number one for a reason... it is the only constitutionally required information... everything else is voluntary - and highly inappropriate, might I add...
And at the state level we have a government cutting ferries to improve schedule, going into a costly special session to balance the budget, and enacting laws prohibiting the movement of any livestock on the roads without a special permit (even if you buy them at the feed store, yes, you need to first obtain a special permit before you can drive 'em home).
This is NOT the land of the free...
This has become some horribly disfigured version of a national empire with absolute authoritarian control over her people...
What worth am I, therefore, if I don't walk straight up to Uncle Sam and remind him with smack in the face and a few head dunks in the barrel of cold water that he is more than he has become... that we all are more than we have allowed ourselves and our land to become... what worth are any of us if we do not see this identity crisis, this false America that has been built around us... like prison walls...
like prison walls...
Meanwhile the census forms arrived yesterday asking me which variety of Hispanic I am... let's just say that there is a box around question number one for a reason... it is the only constitutionally required information... everything else is voluntary - and highly inappropriate, might I add...
And at the state level we have a government cutting ferries to improve schedule, going into a costly special session to balance the budget, and enacting laws prohibiting the movement of any livestock on the roads without a special permit (even if you buy them at the feed store, yes, you need to first obtain a special permit before you can drive 'em home).
This is NOT the land of the free...
This has become some horribly disfigured version of a national empire with absolute authoritarian control over her people...
What worth am I, therefore, if I don't walk straight up to Uncle Sam and remind him with smack in the face and a few head dunks in the barrel of cold water that he is more than he has become... that we all are more than we have allowed ourselves and our land to become... what worth are any of us if we do not see this identity crisis, this false America that has been built around us... like prison walls...
like prison walls...
Thursday, March 11, 2010
2010 Census: General Civil Disobedience
The US Constitution allows the Federal Government to count the citizens of the nation once every ten years... allowing, specifically "The Enumeration" in order to properly determine the balance of representation in the House of Reps. Each decade since 1790, the United States has asked for an increasingly larger amount of information. Genealogical research done by me has found that during the 19th century and early 20th century, the census asked questions of race, occupation, and income, and worth.
In the 2010 census, the federal government plans to collect :
1. Mortgage information
2. Phone information
3. Hispanic Heritage (an entirely separate question from race, but WHAT KIND OF LATINO ARE YOU!)
4. Racial information
5. Specific address including GPS Coordinates of YOUR FRONT DOOR
If you do not comply with any portion of the form, you will be fined $100.
In the early census records I have, the information was limited to members of the family, age, sex, if you were black or white, parent's place of birth, your place of birth, and the county in which you lived. This information, especially the race, helped track families as they migrated across the territories and has been most helpful in my genealogical searches...
However, I find it hard to believe that the US government needs to GPS my front door, needs specific racial information based on categories defined by (???), and mortgage information about my home! I plan on taking part in the census, but I WILL omit certain information and refuse any fine for doing so. As well, any census taker who approaches my front door without a warrant to collect GPS coordinate data will be placed under a citizens arrest by me for trespassing.
I recommend similar general disobedience in the face of this unconstitutional seizure of "other" data besides the afforded Enumeration... any additional information you provide is your express WAIVING OF YOUR CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS.
For your entertainment, see the following videos...
In the 2010 census, the federal government plans to collect :
1. Mortgage information
2. Phone information
3. Hispanic Heritage (an entirely separate question from race, but WHAT KIND OF LATINO ARE YOU!)
4. Racial information
5. Specific address including GPS Coordinates of YOUR FRONT DOOR
If you do not comply with any portion of the form, you will be fined $100.
In the early census records I have, the information was limited to members of the family, age, sex, if you were black or white, parent's place of birth, your place of birth, and the county in which you lived. This information, especially the race, helped track families as they migrated across the territories and has been most helpful in my genealogical searches...
However, I find it hard to believe that the US government needs to GPS my front door, needs specific racial information based on categories defined by (???), and mortgage information about my home! I plan on taking part in the census, but I WILL omit certain information and refuse any fine for doing so. As well, any census taker who approaches my front door without a warrant to collect GPS coordinate data will be placed under a citizens arrest by me for trespassing.
I recommend similar general disobedience in the face of this unconstitutional seizure of "other" data besides the afforded Enumeration... any additional information you provide is your express WAIVING OF YOUR CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS.
For your entertainment, see the following videos...
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Enacting Liberty, not just getting R's elected
The year is 2010. We are well into the second year of arguably the most liberal president in the history of the United States, backed by a near supermajority of liberal leaning congressmen and senators in the federal capitol. The left is pushing for a radical Eurofication of the United States, the right is determined to stall on the basis of American Exceptionalism when it comes to our form of government. The state governments are ripe with the same partisan conflicts, the same partisan rhetoric, the same core fundamental disparities. The people of the states, too, are mobilizing for one side or the other. On every level there is such a divide present that the very fabric of our society is beginning to tear at the seams.
This is a struggle that must be resolved, and it must be that absolute liberty is the victor, lest the great experiment will cease to exist.
That is why, in 2010, it is more important to defend liberty, defend streamlined government initiatives, support true liberty minded citizens who are interested in restoring balance in the government and not merely looking for a switch in partisan power.
As I have eluded to in a number of articles, my biggest fear is that the power swing in 2010 will do little to address core concerns with the direction of this country, and do more to merely swing power to a different set of criminal politicians.
Liberty means more than low taxes and republican victories. It means more than a Gadsden flag, or a tea party convention. Liberty is only possible when you live without fear of reproach from your government AND without fear of retaliation from your neighbor. We must be careful not to cry liberty while in the minority, merely to rule with an iron fist once in the majority.
Inasmuch, we must draw a clear line in the sand - what is the absolute extent of government power... and stick to it.
Unless we can resolve this fundamental question, all other disputes are unwinable.
This is a struggle that must be resolved, and it must be that absolute liberty is the victor, lest the great experiment will cease to exist.
That is why, in 2010, it is more important to defend liberty, defend streamlined government initiatives, support true liberty minded citizens who are interested in restoring balance in the government and not merely looking for a switch in partisan power.
As I have eluded to in a number of articles, my biggest fear is that the power swing in 2010 will do little to address core concerns with the direction of this country, and do more to merely swing power to a different set of criminal politicians.
Liberty means more than low taxes and republican victories. It means more than a Gadsden flag, or a tea party convention. Liberty is only possible when you live without fear of reproach from your government AND without fear of retaliation from your neighbor. We must be careful not to cry liberty while in the minority, merely to rule with an iron fist once in the majority.
Inasmuch, we must draw a clear line in the sand - what is the absolute extent of government power... and stick to it.
Unless we can resolve this fundamental question, all other disputes are unwinable.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
A Close Eye on Texas Gov Race - Debate Thoughts
Current Governor Rick Perry went toe to toe with challengers Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson, and liberty minded Debra Medina tonight in a Governors Debate for the March 2010 election. After watching (and as I am currently watching as I write) my general feelings are as follows:
1. Rick Perry has his hands full against these two ladies. He has a decade of service in the state to answer for, has increased taxes and regulation, and has merely paid lip service to libertarian causes. He is being hit hard, and rightfully so, on misleading voters while acting in opposition to campaign promises. Not to mention there is a huge budget problem in the state... This could be why he has two challengers on the ticket.
2. Sen. Hutchinson is also at risk in this election due to her many years of service in the Senate. With congressional ratings being beyond unpopular, and Hutchinson's voting record showing ne'er a sign of leadership over party politics, it is no wonder she is taking some direct hits from Gov. Perry on her involvement in the current scandals of the Federal Government.
3. Debra Medina, the dark-horse underdog, is asking and answering questions like a Tea Party Candidate. Her answers echo the Liberty First/Anti-Authoritarian policies committed to on this blog and on the blogs of many of my followers. Her non-status-quo standing and underdog status makes her battle an uphill one, but while watching the back-and-forth between Perry and Hutchinson it is clear that they do not consider her a major candidate...which could be an advantage when the papers come out tomorrow reading "Underdog Steals the Show"
This debate, for me, has piqued interest in the dark-horse Candidate - Debra Medina. If what I say and support on this blog is to be attached to a candidate, I have to openly and honestly support Medina and candidates LIKE Medina. Her stance on immigration, drugs, taxes, and states sovereignty are what ALL governors should embrace.
Medina Closing Summary: We have a real opportunity to restore the pillars and principle of the founders, of state sovereignty, and of Texas independence per the state constitution with special council to the Federal Government.
Closing statements from Perry and Hutchinson were dismal, lifeless, and the run-of-the-mill "think of the children" responses you would expect from the same old gaggle.
If you want Texas to be led by a LIBERTY candidate, send Debra Medina a few of your tanking dollars... With a little bit of luck we can get a governor in this nation willing and able to stand up and take on the Federal Government the way only a governor can!
I am adding Debra Medina to my OFFICIALLY ENDORSED list!
1. Rick Perry has his hands full against these two ladies. He has a decade of service in the state to answer for, has increased taxes and regulation, and has merely paid lip service to libertarian causes. He is being hit hard, and rightfully so, on misleading voters while acting in opposition to campaign promises. Not to mention there is a huge budget problem in the state... This could be why he has two challengers on the ticket.
2. Sen. Hutchinson is also at risk in this election due to her many years of service in the Senate. With congressional ratings being beyond unpopular, and Hutchinson's voting record showing ne'er a sign of leadership over party politics, it is no wonder she is taking some direct hits from Gov. Perry on her involvement in the current scandals of the Federal Government.
3. Debra Medina, the dark-horse underdog, is asking and answering questions like a Tea Party Candidate. Her answers echo the Liberty First/Anti-Authoritarian policies committed to on this blog and on the blogs of many of my followers. Her non-status-quo standing and underdog status makes her battle an uphill one, but while watching the back-and-forth between Perry and Hutchinson it is clear that they do not consider her a major candidate...which could be an advantage when the papers come out tomorrow reading "Underdog Steals the Show"
This debate, for me, has piqued interest in the dark-horse Candidate - Debra Medina. If what I say and support on this blog is to be attached to a candidate, I have to openly and honestly support Medina and candidates LIKE Medina. Her stance on immigration, drugs, taxes, and states sovereignty are what ALL governors should embrace.
Medina Closing Summary: We have a real opportunity to restore the pillars and principle of the founders, of state sovereignty, and of Texas independence per the state constitution with special council to the Federal Government.
Closing statements from Perry and Hutchinson were dismal, lifeless, and the run-of-the-mill "think of the children" responses you would expect from the same old gaggle.
If you want Texas to be led by a LIBERTY candidate, send Debra Medina a few of your tanking dollars... With a little bit of luck we can get a governor in this nation willing and able to stand up and take on the Federal Government the way only a governor can!
I am adding Debra Medina to my OFFICIALLY ENDORSED list!
Monday, December 7, 2009
My Fears for 2010
We officially have 24 days remaining in 2009, making it officially too early to "fill" with a 'Year in Review' blog, but there is no etiquette regarding 'fears for the future' articles... This Monday evening, as you lend me a few moments of your time, let me state my biggest fear for the coming year.2010 is the mid-term election to end all mid-terms. We are easily on the verge of some sort of collapse of America - our economy, our core values, our general way of life. In 2009 we were faced with a rising tide of liberty minded revolutionary talk - not necessitating a fighting revolution, rather a revolution in the way we regard our leaders, how we pick them, and the relationship we demand with them. It was a year when many Senators or Congressmen wished they had stayed sheltered in Washington, rather than facing their town hall voters. It was a year when the government grew out of control and Americans finally said "enough".
My biggest fear during the next election cycle is that, as the image above suggests, the revolution is merely for show. My fear is that if Republicans win it will be more of the same "bad" republicans, winning off the back of the liberty protesters, only to gain power for "their" side. My fear is that there are not enough of the "right" kind of leaders stepping forward, and we are going to be left with a lesser of two evils battle as we move into the elections.
How do we help keep this fear from becoming a reality?
First, stop giving money to political parties. We saw the err in this tactic in the New York 23rd race, where the GOP candidate withdrew to endorse the Democratic candidate over the Conservative. The party, especially at the national level, has learned nothing and will continue to make the same mistakes in it's quest for power.
Research, research, research. Find a good candidate and follow them. Ask them questions. meet them face to face. Call their campaign office and get on board with their agenda. If you think they have the right stuff, DONATE!
Finally, write your leadership. Write your Senators, Congressmen, Governors, and Party Leaders. Let them know that there are standards we are holding them too, and that in 2010 you can be their best friend or worst enemy, depending on how they view YOUR liberty. If they are unresponsive or disregard your demand for representative government, consider running for their seat... the thought has crossed my mind more than once.
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