McCain/Palin - Eeking Out Victory in '08?

After watching the lack-luster Presidential Debate last night, and reading the headlines over the past few days regarding presidential politics, I am willing to hedge my bets. John McCain and Sarah Palin will win the electoral vote by a spread of 10 points - 274 to 264, Colorado being the deciding vote and leaning McCain by less than 10,000 votes.

I am willing to predict that Obama/Biden pick up huge victories in NY and California, giving them a 2 million vote spread in the popular vote - bringing about the same arguments we saw after 2000, where Gore won the popular vote and Bush won the electoral vote, sparking disputes whether the electoral vote is representative of the will of the people.

In fact, the electoral vote is what keeps this country a Republic - and saves us from a mob-ruled Democracy in the Federal Government.

Barack Obama is going to have a tough race over the next few weeks. There is finally some more in depth reporting regarding his questionable associations, his economic policy, and his record. Obama's headlines this week include ACORN voter registration fraud on the order of tens of thousands in battleground states, Breaking his promise to his wife regarding smoking, Democrat tactics (including hacking e-mail accounts) in intimidating supporters of McCain and Undecided Voters... Dissenters of Barack Obama are going to spend the next few weeks ripping the Junior Senator apart, and it will be enough to swing the undecided voters in the traditionally red states back in to the McCain/palin camp.

McCain will take Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina by about 5%.
McCain will take Ohio and Colorado by 2%.

It will be tight, but the negative message about Obama is only going to be muted by Obama pumping tens of millions into counter ads attempting to repair his image - money that has been questionably raised - breaking numerous federal election laws... which will be made well known.

The upside is that this will all be over in a few weeks, and we will see the uneasiness in the markets settle down a bit, and the country will begin to move forward in one direction or the other.

Under Obama, we can be sure that the markets will hit about 8000 as investors pull out their money to avoid the "threshold of wealth" in the sights of Obama's "fairness tax". Small business and large business alike will be motivated to hide funds or under-perform to avoid the higher taxes. There will be a motivation for restraining business growth, whcih will lead to the elimination of actual economic growth. Jobs will disappear, unless the Federal Government creates a jobs program for the Green Energy "industry" which will actually be the Green Energy Administration - and jobs will be under the Federal Government Payroll.

Under McCain, there is at least some hope for allowing the American people the opportunity to fix their situation as part of a reprise of personal responsibility in spending, health, and energy. There will be tax breaks for all, spending reductions across the board, and an end to Bush's Big Government Boom! There is some hope with McCain's policy of ousting corruption in lending, lobbying, and leadership that the government will shrink, taxes will stay low, and local governments will feel the pressure to take over where the federal government has intruded on their authority.

There will be no unity in 2008. If McCain wins, the angered and trained Obamanites will partake in the practice of civil disobedience. Leftist Fascism will be at an all time high through Code Pink, ACORN, and Move-On groups trying to quiet the conservatives/Republicans from conducting a clean-up operation in our government. It will be no better from the left than it is now, under Bush - because those on the left HATE anyone who disagrees with them. If Obama wins, there will be tactics from the right to stall any of his policies from becoming law. There will be a massive failure of the government to operate under these extreme bills and regulations (which is why the congressional and Senate races are more important than the Presidential race).

Either way, we are at a societal crossroads in America. The left has become so left that socialist/communist would be a compliment to them. The right has been abandoned for the middle-left, and those who remain on the right are radically outside of common thinking, even if they are spot on classically for American Politics.

Assuming I am right, and McCain/Palin wins, there is hope that the future of the country will begin it's pendulum swing back to the center, giving hope for true reform in government towards a smaller, less authoritarian "master" federal government.

Assuming I am wrong and this nation continues left, there could be a collapse of the Union under the pressure of the overbearing federal government - leading to possible civil war, or in the least a new form of a confederation between states or regions. What happens next in America is anyone's guess... but as it was once said: Keep your powder dry. Save your resources and be prepared for anything, because uncertainty is staring us in the face!

269-269 Electoral Tie - Civics 101 or 440?

Colorado and New Hampshire are absolute MUST WINS for McCain/Palin, else we find ourselves in a constitutional crisis where the House of Reps would be responsible to select the President of these United States, and under the 12th Amendment, the Senate would select the Vice President.
Let's start this discussion by looking at the electoral map. Based on the most recent state-by-state polls, three states previously won by Bush may be leaning towards Obama - Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. One state won by Kerry in 2004 may be leaning towards McCain - New Hampshire. If this is the case, there is no majority winner in the electoral college vote. Each party will receive only 269 votes, and as such, no President will be named due to the outcome of the election.

The 12th Amendment of the Constitution states that in the case of no majority in the electoral college, the vote for President goes to the House of Representatives, each state receiving only one vote, and similarly a separate vote will be cast for the Vice-Presidency. This means that the party tickets could be broken up, and the representatives will select the party leadership.

What my research has found is that it would not be the current Congress who casts the votes - rather the newly elected Congress. This would potentially give Obama an advantage, as the representatives of each state will have to work together to cast a vote for the state - a heavy loss in Congressional seats by Republicans would ensure that a vote favors the Democrats (could be Obama, could be another compromise Democrat, like Hillary).

Unfortunately, if a state delegation is tied, the votes from that state are uncounted. Below is a map of the 2006 election results, giving an example of which states would be in favor of which candidate, assuming no seats are lost to either party. Unfortunately, it is only a guide, as the house moved seats from some states to Western states growing in population.

If everyone in the House kept their seat, and neither party gained a single seat, Democrats would win: Democrats 28, Republicans 21, Tie 2. Obama wins, 28 votes to 21 (total is 51 because Washington, D.C. is counted as state for presidential elections).

Fortunately, the likelihood of another 2006 style Republican defeat is unlikely. The most important point to note is that Republicans must win in key states, where a vote would come down to one vote or a tie - turning the votes in favor of the Republican Candidates.

Stepping back from this scenario, it is dangerously clear that two states are in play for 2008 at this time: New Hampshire (where current polling gives Obama a 0.3% lead) and Colorado (where current polling gives Obama a 1.0% lead). If New Hampshire follows the suit of the Northeast, electing Democrats, and Colorado is pulled back into the traditional role of voting for Republicans, the crisis is averted, and McCain/Palin wins the election.

Should Colorado and New Hampshire both fall in favor of Obama, Obama wins at 273 electoral votes.

It is evidently clear that Colorado is the key state to both campaigns. The next President of the United States is going to have to set up a condo in Colorado... they can't afford not to!