Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Swing States: Swinging for McCain/Palin!

Rasmussen/Fox polls in key swing states shows the change in momentum between the two presidential campaigns. The poll indicated that McCain closed the gap on 3 point Obama Lead, to come out ahead by 2% - a 5 point swing toward the McCain campaign in the state of Colorado.

Real Clear Politics also shows that the PPP (D) poll, favoring Obama by 4 points now favors Obama by only 1 point in Colorado - well within the margin of error of that poll.

Obama's campaign is losing steam in many key swing states - most notably Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes. If McCain can swing Pennsylvania, Obama will be unable to catch him in the electoral count. Taking a look at the breakdown in Pennsylvania, Obama is holding the core Democrat vote, but losing with unaffiliated voters by 23 points (55% - 32%). What is most notable in this state is that McCain is making his gains while Obama is holding steady, indicating (as noted above) that unaffiliated voters are swinging for John McCain and Sarah Palin in the Keystone State.

Another key state in this race, Florida, has moved from the "toss up" category, to the "Leaning McCain" category, indicating a favor for McCain of more than 5% on the average - a great number for McCain!

A look at other swing states shows a trend that should have the Obama campaign moving into crisis mode.

Minnesota (10) - Obama's 12 point lead dwindles to a tie in the latest polls - Obama lead by 1% on average.

New Mexico (5) - CNN poll indicated Obama's lead post Palin was 13%, now Rasmussen indicates a McCain 2% lead in the state. Unable to determine the average in that state.

Michigan (17) - An Obama 5 point spread has been cut to a 2 point spread for Obama - indicating a McCain surge in that state.

Missouri (11) - The "Show Me" State is showing a liking for McCain/Palin, moving from the toss-up category into McCain's category, indicating 11 electoral votes for the Big Mac and the Cuda.

Washington (11) - Though Obama is still leading this state, McCain is showing a surge in the Evergreen state, while Obama is showing slipping poll numbers. Is Washington going to end up in play in 2008?

The fact of the matter is that, even with the media squarely supporting Obama - and making no secret of it - the Obama campaign is in disarray. The LA Times' Jonah Goldberg suggests that Obama's inexperience is beginning to show, indicating that Obama has never run a successful campaign against a Republican opponent. He also reports that the Obama camp has vowed 4 other times to face off and fight dirty against McCain, but come up short and with the same message that is not working: McCain is too close to Bush - making him McSame. This message is a good talking point for Democrat Core voters, but it is not catching on with Independent and unaffiliated voters. Why?

Lieberman's endorsement indicates that McCain is appealing to independent voters, and continually stumps that McCain stood up against Bush on issues, like the surge.

The Palin pick indicates that McCain is ready to embark on a reform conquest in Washington, picking the most popular Governor in the US, who is a known outsider and reformer. The attacks on Palin by the media and the left (I repeat myself) have backfired, showing significant support for the Alaskan Governor - indicating that the media is not only in Obama's camp, but out of touch with the voters.

If the 2008 Republican Primary taught us anything, it is that McCain is a strong finisher, bringing out the big guns when it matters. He has done that with the Palin pick, and he is doing that with the direct push towards Obama's inexperience.

If the McCain Palin bump is over, like the MSM reported yesterday, it is definitely not a burst bubble, but a new plateau. The Obama campaign, however, continues to plummet in national and state polls. With 49 days left to go, anything can happen - but the outlook is not so good for Obama.

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