Monday, September 8, 2008

McCain in the Polls - the Palin Bump is Killing Obama

Barack Obama's moment in the limelight may quickly be coming to an end. 30+ Million viewers watched his historic acceptance speech in his extravagantly constructed Greek Theatre on Thursday August 28th.

But then came August 29th - what will likely be known as Obama's Black Friday.

McCain made an announcement that would send shock waves through the political world - He named a little known, but highly effective reform Governor from the "tiny" state of Alaska as his running mate.

Instead of replaying the Obama speech on a loop all day Friday, Obama's speech was nowhere to be found. Instead, the news media was frantically trying to cover a HUGE story about someone they knew NOTHING about. They were left grasping at straws, trying to make a story - any story... and they ended up feeling the big hurt because of it. Their anointed one was no longer the story.

Sarah Palin, the first woman on the GOP ticket, gave her acceptance speech after 5 days of constant press coverage - to an audience of 30+ Million... even though she was covered by four less networks.

It would appear that McCain chose correctly.

And McCain's acceptance speech - one week after Obama's visual and oratory dream - received more viewership than Obama.

The game had clearly been changed - and all of Obama's attacks about making a poor choice for VP, and a week of comparing his record to that of the GOP VP nominee eliminated a commanding lead in the polls and in the headlines of all the major news outlets.

Obama's choice of Biden was intended to show strength through experience - but it showed a poor choice in planning for the future of the Democratic Party.

McCain's choice of Palin was intended to show reform through ethics and values - and hit the nail on the head.

Obama's failure to foresee McCain's strategy, and his clamoring in the week and a half since Palin was named as the VP have weakened his standing with the independents, the youth, the experienced - pretty much anyone outside of the "tow-the-line" Democratic Party.

Gallup reported yesterday on the swing heard around the world - a 9 point gain for McCain and a 4 point drop for Obama in two weeks - that is a 13 point swing in McCain's favor since the conventions kicked off. Gallup is not alone. As you can see in the attached graphic, McCain is tied or leading Obama in the selection of polls making up the RCP average, giving McCain a 1.2 point national advantage over Obama, representing an average swing of 8 points nationally in McCain's favor.

Sarah Palin represents a few things -

1. The strength of the "Every Woman" movement. This is different than the other wing of the feminist movement, where-in women have to become men to compete with them. The 'Every Woman' feminist is one who represents strength AND femininity. This is the Hockey Mom/Soccer Mom crowd.

2. Vitality. Her youth and endurance represent the future of a party - one who is capable of growth and leadership over a lengthy term of service.

3. Reform. When McCain picked Palin, he made the message loud and clear - The Republican Ticket was a reform ticket! Palin has cut the throats of corrupt Republicans with the ease of a warm knife in butter, and with a smile on her face. It is this same drive for a clean government that invigorates the voters who are desperate for a different kind of politician. They feel that they have that more with Palin on the GOP ticket than the duo of Obama/Biden.

For the time being, the Underdog campaign of John McCain has been boosted with the strength of Wonder-Woman. Scoring 54% in the USA/Gallup poll indicates that the independent voter may be willing to make a bet on the future by way of a reformed conservative movement, rather than a party representing the changing style of our society.

The Palin Bump has hit the polls - and even though she is number two on the ticket, there are many voters now decidedly supporting a "Palin/McCain" White House.


  1. McCain goes after the homosexual lobby. . .

    and wins them over:

    Wunder wut Sarah thinks?

    Let's remember that this'll be a *McCain (aka Mequeno)* administration, if'n he wins, not a Palin one.

    Snaggle-Tooth Jones, the Colorado Confederatarian

  2. Yeah! it looks like people are voting for a Palin_McCain ticket!
    Palin has suddenly given some electricity to Republicans who were bored with haggards like Mc, Guly, Hbee and the moron Bush..
    Good luck Palin with the old dude!