With five and a half weeks remaining before the Constitutional Resurgence, speculation and polling is as active for an off year as I have ever seen - perhaps because defeat after defeat have been dealt to the Democratic White House in a wave of special elections and Primary upheavals. If the Clinton victory in '92 forced the establishments to re-write the book, and the 2000 presidential election caused them to tear a few pages from it, then the 2010 political season is sure to have political scientists wondering how they could have been so wrong on so many levels. How is it, they will wonder, that a country who gave a blank check to a clearly and openly socialist establishment suddenly finds itself so diametrically opposed to the media announced mandate of 2008?
Let's look to the people for answers.
Obama is polling at ~45% with a solid 50% disapproval rating (45% of those, according to Rasmussen "Strongly Disapprove" - compared to 26% who "strongly approve"). The great emancipator from the evils of the Bush and Clinton empires has proven to be what opponents recognized him as during the primary and general elections in 2008. He has proven that he does not and cannot associate or empathize with the American People. He is an ideologue, so blinded by his agenda that he refuses to associate with the people - tending, instead, to lecture and talk at the people. He no longer inspires Hope, but for a small minority... and even for them, hope has begun to fade. The people are beginning to awaken... it seems he is bringing change to America - change toward a constitutional class of leaders, and an educated and active constitutional electorate.
The Tea Party has already mounted their attack against the GOP and sufficiently dealt them a death blow, forcing the leadership to hearken back to the days of '94, when the party promised change in a Contract with America. That contract was breached as soon as the GOP had control, and a new age of pork spending, corruption, and continued abuse of the constitution once again became the norm in DC for both parties. However, the Congress will have a strong delegation of Tea Party officials. The Senate will have an unusually high representation of Tea Party officials. A few constitutionalists will even preside over state houses for the next four years. This places the GOP in a bind. They fought hard for establishment candidates, and come out denouncing Tea Party victors, only to have to lick their wounds publicly the following morning. The GOP could forever be crippled in 2010 if there is a Tea Party fissure, and the conservative block caucuses as a legitimately strong third party - especially because current leadership would abandon ship for a fresh caucus with no excess baggage. If the GOP does not respond correctly, the Republican Party may find themselves an annotation in the pages of history, alongside the Whigs and the Bull Moose parties.
And finally, who will hold the seats of power for the United States come November? Polling tells us that state after state is moving into the 'toss up' region for the US Senate. Long time incumbents, like Russ Feingold (D - WI), are now trailing conservative candidates. Feingold is currently expected to lose his state, polling double digits behind the GOP. Real Clear Politics' election map indicates a 52-48 Democrat margin on November 3rd. I remain skeptical that Boxer (D) in California, Maj. Ldr Reid (D) of Nevada, and Patty Murray (D) of WA can hold on to their narrow margins. At best, the senate will remain in Democrat control by way ONLY of the Biden vote. I predict a 50-50 senate, with as many as eight NEW Tea Party senators, making way for a strong 20-25% party control by hardcore constitutionalist senators. That is enough fresh leadership to make a plan, not for a new contract with America, but to restore America's ORIGINAL contract - the Constitution... and pledge to hold the Congress and the Executive within the bounds set forth by the People.