The Wall Street Journal reports:
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S."
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.
Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.
Panarin, an ex-KGB analyst, may be overstating Russia's role in the restructuring of the United States - a sort of ex-Soviet Fantasy...
However, what he has to say is highly intriguing - regarding the collapse of the US... a prediction that has been made here and on many other blogs recently. He states plainly that "mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar". Though he may be wrong about the restructuring, the wheels may be in motion on the structural collapse...
Mass immigration, upwards of 20+ million, has strained the United States economy, and was the cause for much tension throughout the nation within the past three years - including demonstrations in the streets drawing millions of individuals on both sides of the struggle.
The current economic decline has placed a strain on the people of this nation, but the government may not necessarily lose power due to the loss of income - they can create money and perceived wealth. The conflict would arise, economically, if the US is bankrupted by the demand for immediate debt repayment by Saudi's and China, as well as others who hold US Treasury debt. Such an international strain on relations would weaken the US' role in world affairs, and thus weaken the power of the Federal Government - placing an increased focus on regional governments (as indicated by Panarin in his "going gets tough" comment).
The moral degradation serves to weaken the influence politicians have on the people. As their political pull is weakened, they must substitute force - such as authoritarian assaults on civil liberties (i.e. Patriot Act). See recent political scandals from 1960 - current.
Ahead of uncertainty, the US population has armed itself - as reported on this blog - and has begun preparing for self defense from government incursions within the US. Unlike the first US civil war, the second stands to begin not as two opposing governments, but as the government against her people... a true rebellion, if you will. This is, of course, unless Obama can pull off a miracle and calm tensions in the US, and stabilize international affairs that may trigger such pressures from outside. Unfortunately, it looks like Russia is ready to strike while this iron is hot...
What our Russian friend fails to realize is that the collapse of the US would trigger world economic collapse and widespread territory grabs - not just by forces such as Russia and China, but by well armed regional forces within the United States as well. I imagine the following scenario is much more likely than the events of Panarin's proposed outcome:
* The United States Treasury is bankrupted by a Bail-out to several states' governments, but uncertain international economic times stop foreign countries from buying the debt.
* Oil imports to the United States slow to a near halt as Russia, China, and the Middle East form an alliance in the absence of the US' ability to pay it's debt
* The United States makes an appeal to the United Nations for international economic and energy stimulus, which it receives after agreeing to suspend much of the US constitution and become subject to International Law and the International Court. Obama gladly signs the treaty.
* The US Army 1st Infantry Division, currently deployed to Northern Command, is ordered to begin the mandatory collection of civilian armaments. Civilians are instructed to relinquish all weapons to the determined checkpoints within 30 days.
* Texas and other Midwestern/southern states refuse to comply with the Federal Mandate, and fall back on their State Constitutions - they call up their state National Guards to defend State Government institutions as a show of force against Federal Authority. Private Militias are encouraged for regional protection in these areas.
* Internet and telephones lines are cut - eliminating the civilian use of networking and communication
* Other private militias secretly cashe their weapons, as do private citizens in other states. The Black market opens a flood of munitions into the United States.
* Texas secures it's airspace, and ceases or confines all US military bases - taking control of all military equipment. Neighboring states' private militias assist in this effort, causing the US army to establish checkpoints in other regional states, making mass arrests and detention of free citizens now labelled as terrorists. President Obama appeals for UN Peacekeepers to assist in securing the region after first hot combats erupt during struggle for military bases.
* Alaskan forces move to secure the northern oil fields and the southern ports, as well as a troop build-up in the Bering Straight region. Alaska declares independence, taking with it the Canadian Yukon and British Columbia.
* Quebec declares independence from Canada, causing Canada's government to peacefully dissolve.
* Russian forces secure extreme northern lands formerly belonging to Canada - claiming the sparsely populated NW Territories and Nunavet - they are undisputed in these regions, but are unable to effectively advance south or into Alaska.
* The United States suspends the 2010 congressional elections, Obama suspends those portions of the Constitution under Presidential War Powers.
* The UN and NATO send forces into the Northeast to secure international interests
* Russia moves forces into Ukraine and Georgia beginning a new regional conflict
* Obama concedes the loss of Texas and portions of bordering states - opting to isolate and calm tension in the region, but refuses to release the thousands of detained militia fighters, sparking an outrage throughout the nation, and putting into question the security of the world - now entirely at war...
Of course, this is all speculation and the stuff of debates... Are we headed into a civil war / world war... economic crisis is usually a good indicator for such conflicts, so is political uncertainty. We surely have these two throughout the world. I have heard private mumblings of uncertain times - and now there is international question as to the future of the US as a world power...
As a betting man, let's just say that it is my suggestion to keep your powder dry. You may need it soon. Of course, I pray that the government stops its growth, stops its authoritarianism, stops its socialism, and stops its internationalism...