Thursday, July 24, 2008

Colorado: Obama or McCain?

The Quinnipiac University polls shows McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, the top choice among 46 percent of likely Colorado voters. Democrat Barack Obama is the top choice among 44 percent of likely voters. A month ago, Obama had an easy 5 point lead over McCain.

This is at the same time when Democratic candidate for Senate in Colorado blew a 10 point lead in the polls to Republican Bob Schaffer, now polling within the margin of error of Udall.

"Not surprisingly, Obama's strength is in the Denver/Boulder precincts where he leads almost two-to-one, while he trails everywhere else in the state. As the presidential race has tilted a bit toward McCain, GOP Senate candidate Bob Schaffer has moved into a dead heat after trailing Democrat Mark Udall by 10 points a month ago," Brown said. "
The poll shows that Democrats are taking hits because of the price of gasoline... This may or may not be the case (see my previous post on "who is to blame"), but the continuous Democratic talking points stating that high gas prices are good for us because it is demanding alternative means of energy production does not sit well with the voters - however true that statement is. The Democrats are coming out as "out-of-touch" with the reality of the voters, that it is impossible for us to maintain this gas spending even after we have cut back to driving to work only... it hurt at $2.00 a gallon - it kills at $4.00 a gallon... and when some are saying that they wish the prices would continue to increase (droping consumption, and stopping Global Warming). Meanwhile, the price of oil has dropped $20 a barrell since President Bush announced the repeal of the Executive Order banning deep sea offshore drilling. If Congress followed suit, I could foresee oil futures dropping well below $80 a barrel within weeks of such an announcement. Current oil prices are a result of lack of exploration, and the fact that all known sources of oil are going to be depleted within 40-60 years...

But this is not just a Colorado trend. Across the nation, Democrats are taking big hits in these early polls, which they usually do well in up to about November 3rd... Other swing state results in which McCain is closing the gap are:

  • Colorado: McCain is up by a nose 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 49 - 44 percent Obama lead June 26;
  • Michigan: Obama tops McCain 46 - 42 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent lead last time;
  • Minnesota: Obama edges ahead 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 54 - 37 percent Obama lead;
  • Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 50 - 39 percent, compared to 52 - 39 percent.

Democrats were winning on the energy issue as recently as April -- convincing voters that their recipe for alternative fuels, wind and solar energy, was the best solution for America's future, public opinion guru Floyd Ciruli said this morning.

"Then it shifted in April, when gasoline hit $4 a gallon," said Ciruli, who heads Ciruli & Associates of Denver.

Suddenly, the pain at the gas pump was so acute that most voters moved away from the idealistic view of an American energy diet and looked for who to blame for the high prices, he said.

They chose the Democrats, who've opposed drilling off shore and in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, in the name of environmental sustainability.

Voters in each of the four battleground states support off-shore drilling and drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge — activities that McCain supports but Obama opposes. In Colorado, the margin is 52 percent to 44 percent.

This is great news for Republicans, and shows a trend that favors economics and energy issues beginning to dominate the political spectrum - namely because of the successes in Iraq. If the GOP can put a stamp on the success in Iraq, claim it as their own, put the emphasis back on Osama Bin Laden and Afghanistan with a security policy in that region - the Democrats will surely lose. Their success since 2006 has been based on a referendum on Iraq... With Iraq off the table, the GOP stands to bounce back - for the following reasons:

- We have the best policy for plausible energy alternatives, and ending the immediate energy crisis
- We have the best economic recovery plan, one that does NOT include raising taxes (Mr Obama)
- We have the best plan for active conservation of our national parks, as opposed to the radical policy that has lead to the death of large percentages of forests, etc
- We have the best plan for foreign policy - Peace through strength
- We have the best plan for education

Applying small government solutions to these problems is the best way to solve problems.

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