Thursday, October 11, 2007

Can Iraq Exist Without the US?

Reuters has published a new article discussing Turkey's increased drive for invading Northern Iraq, the most stable region of the country. Their main reason is because of a the US commented on an incident which happened in 1915. There is always the pesky business of controlling the Kurdish regions in South Turkey by controling the Kurdish north in Iraq.

So with Sunni Turkey chomping at the bit to invade from the north, and Shiite Iran already making incursions into the country from the East, the question is this: Can Iraq continue to exist without a strong US presence?

Considering that the central government will never have the complete control over the country as Sadaam did, and that national pride is lower on the totem than religious loyalty, it would seem that Iraq does not have a chance at survival.

Assuming that the US leaves, and the country is left without a national army able to defend it's borders, then the most likely course of events (as I proposed earlier this year) are that Turkey succeeds in moving into the north for "security" reasons against the Kurds - as they are already attempting to do, Iran moves into the Shiite strong holds of the South-East, and eventually takes the southestern region. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will have to militarize their borders for fear of a Shiite incursion into the Sunni lands, and another attempt at taking the oil fields of the region. The eastern half of the country is desert, and therefore would be claimed by one or the other invading countries...

Which leaves the security of the region up to the Turkish/Iranian relations... which are shaky at best.

So how is the country of Iraq going to be able to fight off invaders? There will be much resistance in the north, as the Kurds do not want to be ruled by the Turks OR the Iranians, but would rather form Kurdistan. There would be little resistance in the south, as the Shiites would most likely find comfort in the safety that Iran could provide against Sunni Al-Quaeda attacks. Iraq will be unable to sustain itself or defend itself without the protection from the US.

And the rest is history.

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