Analyzing the WA State US Senate Race

I have already predicted a close race in Washington, but one where Dino Rossi ultimately unseats the most liberal Western Senator and three term incumbent. This post is a further analysis of my prediction. Before I break down the race, the polls, and the candidate performance, there are a few peculiar laws in this state that require special attention (much like Nevada's 'none of the above' law). In Washington state we operate under a 'Top Two' system for the general election. This means that the top two vote getters, regardless of party affiliation (which is not required to be disclosed by a candidate), are the only two names shown on the ballot for the general election. Furthermore, write in candidates will not be counted unless they met the registration deadline (set as the same deadline for other candidates) and unless the number of non-registered write in votes is significant enough to effect the outcome of the race. That being said, in Washington State, 100% of the votes will be split between the two names on the ballot. All those undecided or "other" numbers in the polls will either not show up, or follow the trends indicated by the polls for 'Independent' voters. That being said, now let us look at the four phases of this race, and why I think Rossi is going to win.

Patty Murray, the popular state legislator who ran as the "Mom in Tennis Shoes" 18 years ago won after a considerable battle proved her to be a heavy weight. She also had the anti Bush 41 movement and the help of a young southerner running for President who won the affection of women across the country - William Jefferson Clinton. Over the years, Murray has proven to be one of the most liberal senators in the nation, and has increasingly become reclusive and out of touch with the voters in Washington State. Murray has won election to her seat three times before, but mostly to individuals with little to no name recognition, and those who have never been involved in a statewide election.

Dino Rossi, a two time runner up for Governor, has wide statewide support and, even as a moderate Republican, is carrying the support of most die-hard conservative Tea Partiers. Dino's name in this race was only suspect, as a group of unknown candidates were scrambling to find their niche in facing Murray. This analysis begins in the early phase of the candidacy, prior to Rossi officially entering the race. Se the chart below:

Early polling placed Rossi within the margin of error of Murray. Anticipation of his entering the race gathered support from Independents who had grown tired of Murray and the D.C. shenanigans. Rossi pulled ahead of Murray in early polling, to the upper limits of the margin of error, placing him as a solid contender to Murray. Rossi announced his candidacy and immediately fell under the sword of Tea Party candidates tearing at a moderate in a wave of conservative movements. Murray's numbers rose as a result of an effective attack on Rossi by Tea Party challenger, Clint Didier. As the somewhat extreme (and sometimes rambling) Didier began to gain momentum, Murray's numbers returned to her near victory margin of 50%.

The state voted in the Primary Election. The top two candidates were Murray and Rossi. This immediately propelled Rossi's numbers in the polls while Murray suffered the fate of being faced off with a serious and viable contender - a Republican who could win in Washington State. Murray's campaign was in a virtual nose dive, even flying Barack Obama out to the state to endorse her, which sunk her numbers even more.

Murray then turned to serious campaign mode, opening her massive lobbyist funded war chest and unleashing a series of attack ads against Rossi. Rossi remained silent, fundraising and hitting the grassroots. As he waited in the wings for his coffers to fill, it looked as if Murray was going to run away with this thing. The people in Washington state began to wonder if Rossi was going to fizzle out under the enormous pocket-book of a Murray campaign.

Alas, Rossi appeared on the air. Rossi challenged debates. Rossi was in the news, on the TV, on the airwaves. To make matters worse, a usually Murray friendly Seattle Times took a neutral stance in this election and began running actual news about the validity of political advertising. With every new ad, the Times would run an assessment of the ad. Murray was found guilty by the media of slinging mud and half truths. Rossi was shown to be more truthful and delivered a more uplifting message. This tactic spoke well with the Independent voters.

The poll numbers show response to the events of the campaigns so far, but the October surprise has been that some polls have been heavily favoring Democrat voters over Republicans. Even with the disparity, Independent voters are swinging toward the Republican challenger, upwards of ten percent in many polls. In Washington State it is the Independent voters that can break the stranglehold of Liberalism held by densely populated King County's Seattle Metro area.

On average, both candidates are at a dead tie 47 percent (Murray 47.455%, Rossi 47.364%). For statistical purposes, throwing out the highest and lowest poll numbers for each, Rossi takes the advantage 47.4 to 47.3. As I said, a dead tie. This race is about getting out the vote. So let's look at what is on the ballot that is going to get folks to return their statewide mail-in ballot.

*note: poll numbers are all from Rassmusen.

The Rossi/Murray race is the top of the ticket. It gets a fair amount of press, and obviously the Republicans have the GOTV momentum, drawing support from Independent voters. what is drawing more attention is a series of tax increases that are being challenged on the ballot. In WA State the legislature is proposing food taxes, state income taxes, constitutional amendments to extend the state debt allowance, etc. It is a fiscal disaster on the ballots this year, and it is drawing massive attention to the economic woes, and the party of incumbents. There are no pressing social issues on the ballot, so alternative lifestyle voters have no rally poll. There are no major issues other than economic battles - higher taxes or starve the uneducated school children. This is the nail in the coffin for Murray. She has to carry the ticket, and carry the platform in a state where she has proven to be less than popular after two decades in office.

Key factors to a Rossi Victory:

1. King County Liberal Turnout - King County swings upwards of 85% Democrat. It is a solid assurance for the Dems, and also is the most populous area in the state. State elections are won and lost in King County, because of King County.
2. Independent voters - IV are now swinging 10% points in favor of Rossi. Statewide that is effective, but a large swing in the urban areas is turning this thing into a Rossi victory. If he stays on message, Murray cannot counter.
3. Murray blew her advertising load too early - Rossi is well known. We all know his dirty laundry. Her early attack ads swung polls in her favor, but it was nothing more than a reminder of that which we all already knew. It gave her a temporary bump, and there is nothing left - no foreseeable 'October Surprise'. Rossi has been well vetted since 2004 in this state. Two runs for Governor has a way of cleaning out your political closet!

This race may not be key for conservatives, but this race IS key for the GOP to take a majority in the US Senate. The WA and NV senate races are going to be the most hard fought races in the history of this union...two races in which neither party can afford to lose.

Eye on Washington's US Senate Race - Benton Enters, Attacks Own Party

Four term State Senator Don Benton (R) from Vancouver, WA threw his hat into the ring over the weekend, joining the crowded group of Republican challengers to 3 term Sen. Patty Murray (D). His headline making entry into the race was not in an attack on Murray, rather an attack on the Republicans currently in the race, claiming that they are little more than "six guys who have never been elected to anything".

Benton has a history of disdain for common folk, lesser 'politicians', and anything less than the standard to which he has become accustomed.. and unfortunately represents the element of disconnect within the party which current grassroots efforts seek to expunge. The Seattle Weekly reports:

In 2002, in the middle of a dire budget crunch, the Vancouver state senator threw a much-lampooned temper tantrum over capitol renovations that temporarily cost him and his colleagues their exclusive dining room, with its French-trained chefs. Instead, the state senators would have to share facilities with lowly House members and eat food from a kitchen that also served--imagine the horror--the general public.

"THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE," Benton wrote in a letter also signed by 36 other state senators. "We as members of the Senate have come to look forward to the quality of food prepared by [Senate chefs] Jean-Pierre and Kerri [Simon], as well as the quiet camaraderie of our fellow Senators in a private setting."

Without intent on becoming an attack article against Benton, the OBVIOUS must be addressed.

First and foremost, the Democrats are going to light up Sen. Benton for his 'Typical Elitist Republicanism'. In a year when grassroots efforts are striving to find candidates that appeal to the Independent voter, an entrenched Republican with a history of campaign contribution penalties and 'elitesque' outbursts is going to pull the credibility rug out from underneath his feet, and that of the Party.

Secondly, Sen. Benton's first move was low mudslinging politics. Instead of kicking off his campaign by drawing a contrast between himself and the extremely liberal incumbent Patty Murray, he takes a shot directly at the back of his conservative colleagues. This style of dirty politicking is unacceptable in the 2010 race, and should not be condoned or ignored. Qualifications for legitimate candidacy for US Senate is going to take more than "time served"... it is going to take something more, something uplifting and rooted in deep core conservatism. Sen. Benton's remarks are simply a low blow to those brave citizens willing to stand up when no one else would, work the campaign trail as private working citizens, an take a stand against entrenched corruption. Those comments should be an insult to every private citizen, and serve no purpose other than to intimidate private citizens from entering public service. Rooted elitism, which will be a theme of the Democratic counter-campaign, is clear.

In closing, the entrance of Benton into the race adds a layer of expierenced political campaigning needed against an entrenched liberal in an arguably blue-ish state. Unfortunately for the GOP field, Senator Benton's presence in the race seems to have dirtied the water considerably from the start. I can't imagine that Benton plans to adjust his aim at Murray until after he has dutifully attacked the brave private citizens already building their case at the grassroots level against the soon to be former US Senator!

Democrats/Unions Run Boeing out of Washington - US Sen. Patty Murray's Epic Fail

The losers:

US Sen. Patty Murray - D (the intermediary in the Union negotiations)
WA State Gov. Christine Gregoire - D
IAM Union
Washington State economy and housing market
Socialist over-regulation on manufacturing

The Winners:

South Carolina
Boeing
Free Market Capitalism

Boeing will be moving the 787 second line to Charleston, SC, a decision that puts an egg on the face of US Senator Patty Murray, Democrat, who worked as the intermediary in the negotiations between Boeing, the State of WA, and the IAM Union. Murray is up for re-elction in 2012 to a fourth term in the US Senate and this loss should be placed directly on her shoulders and aide in her drive right out of office.

Without Boeing, the Pacific Northwest's economy will collapse. There was a major hit when then Governor Gary Locke, Democrat, would not modify regulatory laws, forcing Boeing Headquarters out of Seattle and into Chicago. That move took with it a number of jobs to the Kansas City manufacturing sites.

This move will set up the final death blow to Washington State, allowing for expansion of Boeing 787 production in the south and enabling a possible future move of all production out of Washington State. Hundreds of thousands of jobs lost or relocated over a decade and a half...

The culprit?

Democrat and Union leadership. The democrats have created regulatory laws disallowing any expansion of businesses without such excessive fees as to triple the overall cost of expansion, all in the name of the environment. Union leadership has put a stranglehold on the ability for Boeing to produce her product, by striking. Boeing wanted a ten year no strike agreement as well as regulatory relief from the government. Patty Murray indicated that what the state and union were willing to offer was more than fair...

It was always Boeing who was held hostage in Washington State because of a lack of manufacturing capabilities in any alternate location. The 787 Dreamliner line included the acquisition of Voight, a SC company, and the necessary elements required for full scale production of a major airliner. Boeing saw the opportunity to use her new leverage - the Democrats did not budge - and Boeing left.

The Seattle Area has directly challenged Detroit in leadership of the "Depressed Economy" club.

Thank you Democrats!

Craig Williams for US Senate, WA State Candidate Review

On Saturday evening I attended a community grassroots event held by Craig Williams, an unknown name in Washington Politics but a great candidate nonetheless. Craig Williams has entered the race for US Senate from Washington State, in an attempt to unseat the two decade senator Patty "Mom in Tennis shoes" Murray, who will be running for her fourth term as US Senator.

I first learned of Williams when a blog reader informed me of the event and extended the invitation. Being the grassroots magnet that I am, I could not turn down the opportunity to meet the candidate on a personal level and grill him with some tough questions which have become the battle cry of my personal and political philosophy.

In the room that night were a handful of concerned citizens, ages ranging from 60+ and retired to 18-ish and in Junior College. There was, however, a concern held common by all in attendance - Liberty. The common theme of personal freedoms, state's rights, freedom from govt. health care, and economic liberties was a perfect tone set for Williams' "campaign plan" presentation. It seemed that most in the room were college educated, many of whom were current or retired military, intellects all... and Mr. Williams' presentation nailed his target audience - intelligent liberty minded grassroots activists aimed at unseating a big government liberal incumbent and replacing her with a liberty minded conservative.

He addressed his main focus point of the campaign, and backed it up with numbers. As 80% of the US public are naming the economy as their number one area of concern, Williams plans to run a campaign as a fiscal conservative.

Though I am concerned about the state of the economy, my first concern is that it is the style of politician and unregulated federal government that has caused such an economic collapse in the free market, not the free market failing of its own accord. As such, it was my intent to determine if Mr. Williams was a "more of the same" candidate, or if his understanding of liberty and the role of the federal government was one that would work to right the listing ship.

Mr Williams mentioned "nation" and the "federal government" in a manner that led me to question his understanding of the role of the federal government, and to fire a shot across his bow for effect regarding state's rights... which I had forewarned him of during our round-Robin introduction.

My first question roughly stated the lack of the "union of states" since the civil war, and a cause for concern as a national reach for power in the 20th century, and questioned what he saw his role as US Senator would be in correcting the perception of people vs. the government. He called on a religious text - the religious text of the United States - the gospel that is the US Constitution. He said that it is a wonder that the very same people who are hired to uphold the constitution are so quick to wipe their rears with it.

I followed on with a question regarding the federal deficit and federal budgets. We jointly acknowledged that Federal budgets on the order of 3 to 4 Trillion were a clear indicator of excessive government. I politely interrupted with a pointed question: "What is an appropriate budget number for the United State's Federal Government?" He mentioned 2 Trillion, and my response was "you think 2 Trillion is an appropriate amount to spend?" His response was interesting, in that he said that he sees his best course of action being to work within the bounds of the current system in an attempt to reduce excess first, namely targeting the "sacred cows". I am sure that his reluctance to declare massive faults and radical recalibration of the monetary system was to avoid being labelled as a "radical right-wing nut" by the socialist financial gluttons... and I don't bemoan him for this, rather I appreciate it. His general tone regarding the matter indicated a firm understanding of the points I was making, and his body language as well as careful responses hinted that he would be more inclined to shake things up once he takes office.

I pushed the envelope to truly vet this candidate. I wanted to ask some tough questions as this guy is asking for my vote. No more will I give my vote away so easily or freely.

With a cordial handshake, a smile, and a "no hard feelings" about the intensity of my interrogation, I felt like Craig Williams is a candidate that generally shares my view of liberty, state's rights, and the role of the government. He has laid out a great campaign plan and has a tough road ahead. There are currently 6 individuals filed to run as Republicans against Patty Murray in Washington State. With the new primary system in Washington state, Patty Murray will not need to run a primary campaign, leaving a dogfight on the Republican side of the ballot. As I have said a number of times, 2010 is going to be used as the sounding board for Republicans in how we want to redefine and reshape the conservative movement using a major political party. Who we pick in 2010 is vastly important considering what we have been fighting for since November 2008.

With this in mind I am willing to say that Craig Williams is a great candidate for Senate, and will do well as an RNC outsider. With the RNC showing little interest in this race due to an embedded incumbent, Williams has some political freedom to take the fight to Murray and earn recognition of the RNC and GOP Senatorial Committee - unlike the anointed Jane Norton in CO. I strongly recommend contacting Craig Williams' campaign: "If you have further questions or would like to host a meeting or social yourself, please contact my campaign manager Karen Osborne at
Campaign@VoteWilliams2010.com or 360.907.2593"

If there are other candidates that you would like me to review, please do not hesitate to contact me! I will ask the tough questions and ensure that we drive home the message of Liberty!